Lecture 2 Probability

Introduction to Probability
Theory
Outline
 Basic concepts in probability theory
 Bayes’ rule
Observation - refers to any recorded information
(numerical or categorical)
Statisticians use the word experiment to describe any

process that generates a set of data.
Definition of Probability
 Experiment: toss a coin twice
 Sample space: possible outcomes of an experiment
 S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
 Event: a subset of possible outcomes
 A={HH}, B={HT, TH}
 The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all
elements of S that are not in A. We denote the complement of A by the
symbol A'.
 Example: Consider the sample space
 S = {book, catalyst, cigarette, precipitate, engineer, rivet}.
 Let A = {catalyst, rivet, book, cigarette}.
 Then the complement of A is A' = {precipitate, engineer}.
The intersection of two events A and B,
denoted by the symbol A ∩ B, is the event
containing all elements that are common
to A and B.
Example. Let
C be the event that a person selected at random
in an Internet cafe is a college student, and
M be the event that the person is a male.
C ∩ M = ??
is the event of all male college students in
the Internet cafe.
Two events A and B are mutually
exclusive, or disjoint, if A ∩ B = Ø ,
that is, if A and B have no elements in
common.
Example: Let
M = {a,e,i,o,u} and
N = {r,s,t}: then it follows that
M ∩ N = ???
M∩N=Ø
That is, M and N have no elements in common
and, therefore, cannot both occur simultaneously.
The union of the two events A and B,
denoted by the symbol A U B, is the event
containing all the elements that belong to A
or B or both.
Example. Let A = {a,b,c} and B = {b,c,d,e};
then A U B = ???
A U B = {a,b,c,d,e}.
Example. If M = {x | 3 < x < 9} and N = {y \ 5 < y < 12},

then M U N = ???
M U N = {z | 3 < z < 12}.

The relationship between events and the corresponding sample space
can be illustrated graphically by means of Venn diagrams.
Sample space – rectangle

Events - circles
A ∩ B = regions 1 and 2,
B ∩ C = regions 1 and 3, S
A U C = regions 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, and 7, A B
2
B‘ ∩ A = regions 4 and 7, 7 6
A ∩ B ∩ C = region 1, 1 3
4
and so forth. 5
C
Sample space – rectangle
Events - circles
A ∩ B = regions 1 and 2,
B ∩ C = regions 1 and 3, S
A U C = regions 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, and 7, A B
2
B‘ ∩ A = regions 4 and 7, 7 6
A ∩ B ∩ C = region 1, 1 3
4
and so forth. 5
C
A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of
objects.
Theorem 2.3 The number of permutations of n objects is
n!.
Example. The number of permutations of the four letters

a, b, c, and d will be…..
4! = 24.
Theorem 2.5 The number of permutations of n objects
arranged in a circle is (n — 1)!.
Number of ways of selecting r objects from n without regard to
order. These selections are called combinations.
A combination is actually a partition with two cells, the

one cell containing the r objects selected and the other
cell containing the (n — r) objects that are left.
Probability of an Event
Example. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability
that at least one head occurs?
Bayes’ Rule
Bayes' theorem, named after 18th-
century British mathematician Thomas
Bayes, is a mathematical formula for
determining conditional probability.
Conditional probability is the probability of

an event happening, given that it has some
relationship to one or more other events.
Bayes’ Theorem is a law of probability theory.
It helps us work with, revise, and understand probabilities

when we are presented with new evidence.
When we encounter new evidence, how much should it

change our confidence in a belief?
Bayes’ Theorem (also known as Bayes’ rule) is a deceptively simple formula used to
calculate conditional probability.
The formal definition for the rule is:

Bayes’ Theorem Example #1
You might be interested in finding out a patient’s probability of having liver disease if
they are an alcoholic. “Being an alcoholic” is the test for liver disease.
A could mean the event “Patient has liver disease.” Past data tells you that 10% of
patients entering your clinic have liver disease. P(A) = 0.10.
B could mean the test that “Patient is an alcoholic.” Five percent of the clinic’s patients
are alcoholics. P(B) = 0.05.
You might also know that among those patients diagnosed with liver disease, 7% are
alcoholics.
This is your B|A: the probability that a patient is alcoholic, given that they have liver
disease, is 7%.
There are several forms of Bayes’ Theorem out there, and they are all equivalent (they
are just written in slightly different ways).
In this next equation, “X” is used in place of “B.” In addition, you’ll see some changes in
the denominator. If you come across a question involving medical tests, you’ll likely be
using this alternative formula to find the answer:
Example 2: The Medical Test
A slightly more complicated example involves a medical test (in this case, a genetic test):
1% of people have a certain genetic defect.

90% of tests for the gene detect the defect (true positives).
9.6% of the tests are false positives.
If a person gets a positive test result, what are the odds they actually have the genetic
defect?
Sol’n: The first step into solving Bayes’ theorem problems is to assign letters to events:
A = chance of having the faulty gene. That was given in the question as 1%.
That also means the probability of not having the gene (~A) is 99%.
X = A positive test result.

GROUPINGS FJ1
Group 1
Group 2
Aguhob, Rogelyn A. Alacre, Jerald A.
Aguirre, Dave Ezrael D. AraÑAs, Cedrick N.
Detera, Liahona M. Grumo, Christian J.
Gamay, Rhea Abegail J. Herbilla, Carl Joseph T.
Sordilla, Jona M. Sibayan, Raffy P.
Carillo, Joey G.
Group 3 Group 4
Arogancia, Honey Beth T. Botecario, Patricia May N.
Bautista, Reca S. Cular, James Patrick G.
Dayoc, Janjalanie B. Padios Jr, Rey B.
Dela Calzada, Bhart U. Pocong, Neki Jel B.
Polongasa, Shiella Grace N. Podunas, Chindy T.
GROUPINGS FN1
Group 5 (FJ1) Group 6
Boyles, Kenneth M. Alvarado, Marjun C.
Buniel, Ruby Joy N. Giron, Loraine M.
Marsada, Ellen M. Pablo, Jerome G.
Nakila, Juliet F. Taganahan Mitchelle V.
Manzanas, Jerson W. Chee, Russel John G.
Cullantes, Angelo L.
Group 7
Group 8
Apatan, Anna Mae A.
Apit, Kaye Angelou B.
Olais, Aaron Jheremie C.
Libot, Pearly Jane A.
Pabatang, Dexter D.
Mizo, Johny E.
Nakila, Juliet F.
Denoyan, Jasis P.
De Gracia, Hannah Clariss D.
Esguerra, Rojean Faith V.
Dela Serna, Vienche G.
GROUPINGS FN1
Group 9 Group 10
Aspe, Mia Me T.. Cabilogan, Ma. Theresa
Joers, Rhose E. Gallardo, Cesa B.
Lee, Jessiel Faye G. Golez, Shen .
Gacuma, Arian J. Gomez, Angel Sweet G.
Galbo, Jay-Ar G. Jabinal, Jibb Mikoh T.
GROUPINGS GQRS1
Group 1 Group 2
Apas, Angielyn M. Toroy, Kristine Joyce C.
Forcadas, Ann Marie G. Butao, Pia Threcia Marie B.
Lajera, Kenneth John P. Gadat, Andrea Suzette T.
Mendoza, John Eduard . Lirado, Kirsten A.
Pontillo, Aldwin Jason B. Ocoy, Neil S.
Group 3 Group 4
Toyogon, Rodmar A. Utrera, Rafaella J.
Cagampang, June A. Dominguez, Jinerel T.
Guinea, Cynthia Gili M. Guingguing, Jessieca T.
Maala, Bea Alliah I. Lopena, Jaye Bee B.
Pelayo, Jumil M. Pinggol, Joe Mark B.
GROUPINGS GQRS1 & GUV1
Group 6
Group 5
Silong, Lord Boy C.
Rulona, James Audrey Guian G.
Abarquez, Cherrie Lou M.
Eviota, Fatima F.
Gran, Restimar Ryan C.
Honorio, Erika T.
Mirasol, Elly John R.
Macarayo, Ma.Leah A.
Pequero, Rizalyn A.
Pongase, Glymay M.
Umbao, Erven M.
Group 7 Group 8
Sindol, Kenneth N. Tamse, Honey Jane R.
Alvar, Jeraline R. Ariston, James V.
Lamanilao, Harold Jay K. Magdura, Hark Joshua D.
Mosquito, Julius John Ceasar A. NuÑEz, Kezia M.
Poliran, Jennieveb H. Sabac, Shennie Lorren R.
GROUPINGS GUV1
Group 9 Group 10
Sombrio, Xyriel Beryl S. Tugade, Russell Patrick B.
Camatura, Sheen P. Ebarle, Rosal B.
Mangubat, Michael Jay C. Pabayan, Krishane C.
Ompoc, Princess Joy F. Gromia, Renz John .
Sanglay, Ruby Genesis J. Simbolas, Febe Hyacinth A.
Ungab, Christian Dave. D

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Introduction to Probability

Statisticians use the word experiment to describe any

Example. If M = {x | 3 < x < 9} and N = {y \ 5 < y < 12},

M U N = {z | 3 < z < 12}.

Sample space – rectangle

Example. The number of permutations of the four letters

A combination is actually a partition with two cells, the

Conditional probability is the probability of

It helps us work with, revise, and understand probabilities

When we encounter new evidence, how much should it

The formal definition for the rule is:

1% of people have a certain genetic defect.

X = A positive test result.

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