Title: The Geopolitical significance of Pakistan

SUBMITTED BY: MUHAMMAD USMAN

The murder of Benazir Bhutto on 27 December focused world attention on a country which is
generally overshadowed by its large neighbor and regional rival – India, a country with
which Pakistan has repeatedly been involved in armed conflict?
Pakistan's geopolitical importance is underestimated, though it is an important factor in the
stability of South and Central Asia. Neither a resolution to the Kashmir conflict nor lasting
peace in Afghanistan will be possible without Pakistan playing a major role. And international
terrorism can only be effectively fought through close cooperation with Islamabad. At the
same time, not only is Pakistan the only Muslim nuclear power – it is also facing the threat of
state collapse due to Islamisation, hence the view pronounced by The Economist, and shared
by others, that Pakistan is "The world's most dangerous place".
Military Dominance in State and
Society:
When General Pervez Musharraf came to power by means of a coup d'état on 12 October 1999, he was continuing a
long tradition of direct military leadership in Pakistan.
Of the 60 years since its foundation, Pakistan has only had a civilian leadership for 23 years.
 It was not until 1970 that the first free elections took place.
The Pakistani military, which is held in relatively high esteem by the population, is not only politically dominant; it
also wields a strong influence over large sections of the business world and other areas of society. The army's importance
stems from the difficult situation when the state was founded in 1947 and the ongoing conflict with India over Kashmir.
Even a crushing defeat like the one suffered in 1971 in the conflict with India, resulting in the secession of East
Pakistan as Bangladesh, only interrupted this tradition for six years. In 1977,General Zia-ul-Haq overthrew Prime
Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in a military coup and subsequently ordered his execution.
In 1979, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan placed Pakistan on the front line of the Cold War.
It received extensive American military support and its secret services, the Inter-Service Intelligence, or ISI, trained
mujaheddin for their fight against the Soviet invaders in Afghanistan. Since then, Pakistan has wielded considerable
influence over its western neighbor.
  
Strategic Interests and a Difficult Neighborhood:

Ever since its independence, Pakistan has been confronted with territorial claims from Afghanistan on parts of its Northwest Frontier Province;
Afghanistan has never accepted the inclusion of this area in Pakistan following a referendum in July 1947. And Afghanistan, with its Pashtun
majority, has never accepted as the Pakistani border the Durand Line demarcated by the British, which divides the area inhabited by the Pashtun
people.
Jammu and Kashmir are the Alsace and Lorraine of South Asia. Ever since Indian and Pakistani independence, the issue of which country these
regions belong to has been at the epicenter of political tensions in South Asia. The intensity of the dispute over this region, with its majority Muslim
population, stems from the strong symbolic importance it has for both sides: for the Pakistanis it is the identity of their state as the country of
Muslims which is at stake, whilst, for the Indians, the region symbolizes the secular constitutional nature of the Indian Union.
Yet the conflict between Pakistan and India has also always been about power politics.
 The Pakistani elite has never been willing to accept Indian hegemonic ambitions in South Asia and has thus sought to allay itself with foreign
powers – first with the US and later with China.
Pakistan is considerably smaller and weaker in economic and political terms, as well as in military terms.
 Following its disastrous defeat by India in 1971, it began to work on its own nuclear programme.
When India exploded a total of 5 nuclear devices on 11 and 13 May 1998 and declared itself to be a nuclear weapon state, Pakistan was hot on its
heels.
 Strategic Interests and a Difficult
Neighborhood:
 Thus, the Pakistani Indian conflict had gained a nuclear dimension. Yet the nuclear balance has not really
served as a deterrent, since armed conflict between the two states was perpetuated through the use of non-
state players.
 This was the case in the Kargil crisis in 1999, when Pakistani fighters infiltrated the Indian part of Kashmir
and were brutally forced out by the Indian army.
 When the trail of the terrorists responsible for the December 2001 attack on the Parliament in Delhi led to
Pakistan, a renewed crisis erupted between Pakistan and India in the summer of 2002, bringing with it the
threat of possible nuclear escalation.
 Recently, though, the relationship between Pakistan and India has improved tangibly.
 In autumn 2003, both sides agreed on a ceasefire, and, in February 2004, they entered into a "Composite
dialogue".
 Both sides have given a lot of ground. In April 2005, President Musharraf and the new Indian Prime Minister,
Manmohan Singh declared the peace process to be irreversible.
 Afghanistan and the Fight against
Terrorism:
Following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan was concerned about the prospect of a nationalist Pashtun

government in Kabul, which would renew its claims to the areas inhabited by its ethnic brothers in Pakistan and might once
again cultivate good relations with India to this end. In order to counter this threat, Islamabad sought to install Pakistan-friendly
government in Kabul – also in order to provide greater strategic depth in the event of a new conflict with India.
With this purpose in mind, Pakistan set up and supported the Islamist Taliban from the beginning of the 1990s, aiming to
counter Pashtun nationalism with a religious fundamental ideology.
It is therefore not surprising that Pakistan was one of the few countries to recognize the new Afghan government when the
Taliban took power in Kabul in 1996.
Yet, in the wake of the attacks of 11 September 2001 in New York and Washington, which were planned in Afghanistan,
Islamabad was forced to abandon its protégé regime in Afghanistan and cooperate with the US in the fight against transnational
terrorism.
The presence of the US and the international community in Afghanistan remains highly important for Pakistan in geostrategic
terms. Were they to withdraw – either having succeeded in their mission or as the result of an escalation of violence – Pakistan's
strategists fear the forging of a new alliance between Kabul and Delhi.
That is why the Pakistani leadership is extremely worried by the fact that India has established a large number of consulates in
Afghanistan, particularly close to the Pakistani border. Such fears lend plausibility to accusations that Islamabad is not ready to
wholly relinquish the Taliban card completely.
Relations between Islamabad and Kabul are currently characterized by deep mistrust, particularly on the Afghan
side. The Karzai government accuses Pakistan of having allowed
the Taliban to regroup following their defeat and escape to Pakistani territory, and of failing to prevent them
infiltrating Afghanistan.
The areas used as save havens and supply routes by the new Taliban groups operating in Afghanistan are mainly
in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along the Pakistani Afghan border.
In response to pressure from the US, the Pakistani armed forces carried out comprehensive military operations
against militant groups there in spring 2004, resulting in considerable
losses on the Pakistani side.
The traditional tribal structures which existed there had become increasingly radicalized due to decades of
influence from religious extremists.
In the tribal areas of North and South Waziristan and the bordering areas of the Northwest Frontier Province,
Islamist groups were carrying out a policy of "Talibanization" - which is now seen by some observers as a threat
to Pakistan's very existence.
Growing Islamisation and Threat of
Terrorism:
 In the areas bordering Afghanistan, Islamism has taken hold and is expanding its influence.
 Its supporters are ready to use violence and model themselves on the Afghan Taliban.
 This "Talibanization" has now spread via the numerous religious schools (madrasas) to Pakistan’s cities, as demonstrated by the lengthy disputes
concerning the Red Mosque in central Islamabad last summer.
 The bloody storming of the mosque was followed by numerous attacks on the security forces.
 It seems likely that conflict between Islamist and secular/liberal forces will intensify further in the years to come.
 In this sense, Pakistan is reaping what was sown by General-President Zia-ul Haq and several of his successors, including Musharraf.
 These leaders supported an Islamisation of Pakistan in the hope of cementing the legitimacy of their own regimes and using religion to counter Pashtun
nationalism, which posed a threat to the country's cohesion.
 On a number of occasions, President Musharraf has proved unwilling to take more rigorous action against radical Islamist organizations until coming
under international pressure.
This was the case, for example, following the bloody attacks of 7 July 2005 in London, when the trail of the bombers led to Pakistan, and it was also the case
with
the failed attacks in Germany last summer.
 Although President Musharraf has decreed that Pakistan's 50,000 to 80,000 madrasas will be subject to the same controls as state schools, this edict has only
been
half-heartedly translated into action.
Yet the threat of "Talibanization" of the whole of Pakistan of which there has been so much talk should not be exaggerated,
since particularly in the country's two most important provinces – Punjab and Sindh – the opposing secular forces are strong.
This was demonstrated by the robust public support for Benazir Bhutto on her return from exile, as well as for Nawaz Sharif
- both of whom stand for a moderate form of Islam.
Even the moderates amongst Islamist political activists have now rejected jihad as a instrument of foreign policy and are
endeavoring to achieve their goals within the existing legislative framework.
Yet it is important to halt, and as far as possible reverse, Talibanization of the Pashtun border areas, in order to banish the
risk of destabilization of Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The key to bringing peace to the Tribal Areas near the border is to ensure their economic development and political
integration.
 Indeed, this is something which has been recognized by the Pakistani government and the international community, and the
international community has now
provided considerable resources to this end.
Yet, as on the other side of the border in southern and eastern Afghanistan, implementation of such development projects and
programmed is hindered considerably by the poor security situation.
Return to Democracy or Talibanization?
President Musharraf had dominated the political scene in Pakistan after his coup in 1999.
Yet, from the spring of 2007 he has come under increasing pressure from a heterogeneous opposition, which may succeed in forcing him to resign this year. His
decision in March 2007 to suspend the Chief Justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, who was a thorn in his side politically, triggered an unexpected mass movement in
support of judicial independence; the protests led to one of Musharraf's first major defeats, when the Chief Justice had to be reinstated.
President Musharraf achieved re-election by the two chambers of the national parliament and the four provincial assemblies on 6 October.
 Yet, faced with the probable annulment of his election by the Supreme Court, he was only able to cling to power by declaring a state of emergency on 3 November.
This led him, among other things, to fire the Supreme Court judges, replacing them by compliant judges who promptly rejected the constitutional complaint filed by the
opposition.
On 28 November, in reaction to pressure from the international community, he handed over command of the army to the former head of the ISI military secret services,
General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, a personal ally.
 On 16 December, and partly against the background of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 8 January, he ended the state of emergency, though he did not reverse
all the measures taken to shore up his power.
Last autumn, in reaction to pressure from the US and UK, a rapprochement began between Musharraf and the popular ex-Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who had
returned from exile.
The Pakistan People’s Party was expected to win the elections and a power-sharing arrangement between the President and Benazir Bhutto as Prime Minister was
widely expected.
The assassination of Bhutto and the subsequent bloody unrest were taken by many to be a portent of the country's descent into political chaos, with Islamist groups,
supported by
sections of the army and secret services infiltrated by Islamists, able to gain power.
This apocalyptic scenario of a geopolitically important atomic power with access to delivery systems falling into the hands of extremists and terrorists – in other words
the Talibanization of Pakistan – was beginning to take shape.
Yet the rapid decline in popularity of President Musharraf, who is seen by a majority of the population as being partially
responsible – at least indirectly – for the death of Benazir Bhutto, is scarcely benefiting the Islamists.
 Instead, it is the traditional parties and civil-society groups calling for a return to democracy which are gaining ground.
A poll carried out by the US International Republican Institute (IRI) in November found that 35% of those questioned
supported Bhutto's PPP, whilst 25% supported Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League.
 If the elections due to take place on 18 February are free and fair, both these parties can count on an additional sympathy
vote, whilst the radical Islamist parties are seen as having little chance.
Yet it would seem that the rapid decline in popularity of President Musharraf, who is seen by a majority of the population
as being partially responsible – at least indirectly – for the death of Benazir Bhutto, is scarcely benefiting the Islamists.
 Instead, it is the traditional parties and civil-society groups calling for a return to democracy which are gaining ground.
A poll carried out by the US International Republican Institute (IRI) in November found that 35% of those questioned
supported Bhutto's PPP, whilst 25% supported Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League.
 If the elections due to take place on 18 February are free and fair, both these parties can count on an additional sympathy
vote, whilst the radical Islamist parties are seen as having little chance.
This makes a coalition between the PPP and the Muslim League possible, something which would not have been possible prior to Benazir Bhutto's
death.
 This
coalition might be successful in achieving a two-thirds majority in Parliament on 18 February, allowing it to reverse Musharraf's constitutional
amendment and thus force him out of office.
 The army too, anxious to protect its reputation, might have an interest in withdrawing from civilian life.
 In a scenario of this sort, it would then only have to be hoped that the new democratic majority, having removed Musharraf from power, would be
able to build the stable government needed to tackle the country's urgent problems, which are driving a section of the population towards extremism.
 This is something which both democratic and military governments have failed to do in the past.
Every country has a unique geography and geopolitical positioning, but it is not always possible for all states to harness their geopolitical
positioning, either because they lack the political will to do so, or because the overall regional or global geopolitics suppresses such a will.
Nevertheless, understanding one’s geopolitical/strategic positioning is the first step in strengthening one’s standing in bilateral, regional and global
relations.
Pakistan’s unique longitudinal geography allows it to wash its shores with the Arabian Sea at its south, and to shake hands with Central Asia at its
north.
Pakistan’s historical and geographical contingency with Afghanistan has allowed it to support the brotherly country in its fight for freedom from
Russian and American occupations; our neighboring with Iran in a unique way that is different from its Arab neighbors to its west, allows us to have a
relatively unbiased and even normative relation with it.
At the northeastern and eastern proximities, Pakistan touches two giant states: China and India — two states with the world’s biggest populations and both
harboring regional ambitions.
 China being Pakistan’s all-weather friend since the independence of the two states and India being an opponent to both of us.
Because of Pakistan’s geography, India feels severed from larger Asia, especially from Iran and Russia, whom it considered allies till recently.
 India’s foreign policy parted from Russia when it withdrew from Afghanistan and the weak alliance between India and Iran cracked when India decided to
end oil trade with Iran under US-sanctions.
 After the Russo-Afghan War, India hooked up with the US in order to gain influence in Afghanistan that could serve it as a jumping board into Central Asia.
Central Asian states gained their independence from Russia in 1990, when the Soviet Union’s defeat in Afghanistan led to its dismantling.
Because of the fact that Central Asia consists of all Sunni Muslim states, they have a natural ideological bonding with Pakistan and Afghanistan as compared
to Iran or the Arab states that are further away.
Vast hydrocarbon reserves were identified in the landlocked states of Central Asia in the 1990s.
Being deep inside Asia, they need a route to the sea to export their oil and gas, and the route via Afghanistan and Pakistan becomes the shortest, best choice.
The 20 years of US occupation of Afghanistan has delayed the possibility of such ventures, as the US and its defense partner India have endeavored to lay
siege to Afghanistan, not only to get control on Afghan mineral resources but also to become the sole trading partners with the Central Asian states, an ambition
the US and India have failed to accomplish because of Pakistan’s backing of freedom fighters in Afghanistan.
The Central Asian states are also Russia’s near abroad and for this reason Russia too does not want the US or India to dominate Afghanistan.
Butmore than anyone else, Pakistan feels strangled by India from three sides if it succeeds to entrench itself in Afghanistan and considers India’s presence in
Afghanistan an existential threat that has to be leveled at any cost.
Pakistan’s geography has also brought it ever closer to China, as it offers China the shortest route to the warm waters of the Arabian
Sea.
Because wars in the Middle East impede other Belt and Road routes to the Arabian Sea, China has proclaimed CPEC as the flagship
project of its Belt and Road Initiative.
 But that is not all, for China Pakistan’s friendship is a dear one also because this geographically contingent bulwark alliance is
proving to be a partnership that can subdue India’s ambitions to become a regional player.
 So, China and Pakistan complement each other in demanding territories that India has falsely occupied; and in the same vein while
India sits on top of Pakistan’s waters coming from Occupied Kashmir, China sits on top of India’s waters originating from Tibet.
So, as China shows high prospects for being the regional hegemon of the coming decades, Pakistan has chosen wisely to ally with
it.
As China grew economically, it also garnered another vital ally, Russia, who has opened its arms to several BRI projects on and
through its soil.
The two, complement each other’s foreign policies and repel a common adversary, the US.
 Russia’scoupling up with Iran and Turkey to take control of Syria makes for an overall alliance framework that Pakistan would
comfortably fit into.
 On the other hand, Turkey’s opposite in the Islamic World, Saudi Arabia, is also a long-cherished all-weather ally of Pakistan. The recent rift between the two
states over support for the Kashmir Issue has raised some eyebrows, but that does not undermine the long-standing strategic alliance that Pakistan enjoys with
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, wherein Pakistani forces have trained their armies and navies. For instance, the first three chiefs of the UAE air force were
all officers of the Pakistani air force.
 The 41-state, Saudi-led Islamic military alliance created in 2015 is also headed by Pakistan’s former chief of army staff General Reheel Sharif. Though still at
an infancy stage, the alliance which is larger than NATO (30 members), can be a potential global force for protecting the interests of Muslim states. Pakistan’s
leadership of the Muslim ummah is well-precedented, as our forces have remained actively present in war-fronts from Bosnia to Sri Lanka and from
Afghanistan to Somalia, wherever we found the chance to come to the aid of our brethren.
 Pakistan’s refusal to partake in the Saudi-Yemen war may have estranged its relations with the Saudis, but this also makes Pakistan a normative between the
Shia and Sunni powers that have been forced to fight the proxy war in the Middle East. This means that Pakistan’s foreign policy has been based on advocacy
of peace and safeguard of friends and not on oppression and aggression. That Pakistan’s foundations are ideological, is at least shown in our foreign policy,
which has been outward and far-reaching from the beginning, and that its active posture has accrued for it a global role that awaits its ‘will’ and ‘realization’.
 The correction was made in the period of political governments; the details are available on the Internet. Unfortunately, all our civilian rulers need the crutches
of the army to run the affairs of the country.
As a result, the army, whether in power or under civil rule, continues to enjoy a superiority status and it is too late to do away with it.

Even today the democratically elected government is dependent on the army. Whom to blame? The answer is known to everybody.

Pakistan will continue to hold an important position as far as Afghanistan is concerned, otherwise the only superpower would never have sought Pakistan's help. They would not have pumped us with military
aid and support funds.

As an independent nation we must all the time put up a brave face like any other nation. Failures of individuals cannot be construed as failure of the nation.We continue harping on low literacy rate, poverty,
sectarian extremism and maltreatment of minorities.

But who is to be blamed? Nobody else except us. There does not seem to be a single soul that can come forward and steer the country out of this impasse; we are all busy criticizing each other without making
any contribution and this is the biggest tragedy of this nation.

However, these ailments can be routed out in a short period provided we follow the rule of law. What happened in Sialkot is just neglect of the rule of law and no fear of accountability whatsoever.

Today all the institutions of the country have collapsed except the army, the only hope of this nation which alone is fighting on many fronts.It is a good suggestion to spend less on weapons of mass
destruction and F-16s.

To achieve this, we don't have to cut down on minimum deterrence expenses as it will the correction was made in the period of political governments; the details are available on the Internet. Unfortunately,
all our civilian rulers need the crutches of the army to run the affairs of the country.

As a result, the army, whether in power or under civil rule, continues to enjoy a superiority status and it is too late to do away with it.Even today the democratically elected government is dependent on the
army. Whom to blame? The answer is known to everybody.

Pakistan will continue to hold an important position as far as Afghanistan is concerned, otherwise the only superpower would never have sought Pakistan's help. They would not have pumped us with military
aid and support funds.

As an independent nation we must all the time put up a brave face like any other nation. Failures of individuals cannot be construed as failure of the nation.

We continue harping on low literacy rate, poverty, sectarian extremism and maltreatment of minorities. But who is to be blamed? Nobody else except us. There does not seem to be a single soul that can come
forward and steer the country out of this impasse; we are all busy criticizing each other without making any contribution and this is the biggest tragedy of this nation.

However, these ailments can be routed out in a short period provided we follow the rule of law. What happened in Sialkot is just neglect of the rule of law and no fear of accountability whatsoever.Today all
the institutions of the country have collapsed except the army, the only hope of this nation which alone is fighting on many fronts.
It is a good suggestion to spend less on weapons of mass destruction and F-16s. To achieve this, we don't have to cut down on minimum
deterrence expenses as it will jeopardize safety and security of our country, knowing fully well that the sword of Damocles is hanging over our
heads.
If we can stop the leakage of taxes that runs into billions of rupees every year, it will be enough to provide education, health and safe drinking
water.
How can you term ground reality a mantra? Our geographical location is gaining more importance with the passage of time; let us grant some
wisdom to the US that they are not betting on the wrong horse.
We have few friends, no support from countries, and a lack of trust in ourselves. It is not the fault of the state.
The responsibility rests on the shoulders of the rulers who are elected by 170 million people of Pakistan. It is only they who can bring change.
Let us not undermine the capabilities of this nation and its armed forces. Let us start saying that the glass is not half empty, but it is half full.
safety and security of our country, knowing fully well that the sword of Damocles is hanging over our heads.
If we can stop the leakage of taxes that runs into billions of rupees every year, it will be enough to provide education, health, and safe drinking
water.
How can you term ground reality a mantra? Our geographical location is gaining more importance with the passage of time; let us grant some
wisdom to the US that they are not betting on the wrong horse.
We have few friends, no support from countries, and a lack of trust in ourselves. It is not the fault of the state.
The responsibility rests on the shoulders of the rulers who are elected by 170 million people of Pakistan. It is only they who can bring change.
Let us not undermine the capabilities of this nation and its armed forces. Let us start saying that the glass is not half empty, but it is half full.