Financial Management
Financial Management
For
MBA Program
Banbul Shewakena
(Assistant Professor of Financial Management)
1
Chapter 1
Overview of Finance
2
What is business?
3
characteristics
• There are three key characteristics that
must be met to have a business.
1. businesses must be the result of individuals
working together in an organized way.
2. businesses must satisfy a societal need.
3. businesses must seek to make a profit.
4
Forms of Business organization
1. A sole proprietorship
is a business that has a single owner who is responsible for
making decisions for the company.
2. A partnership
consists of two or more individuals who share the responsibility
of running the company.
3. A corporation
is one of the most recognizable business structures and has a
separate identity from the owners of the company.
One or more owners may participate as shareholders of a
corporation.
5
The d/c b/n the three forms of business
Formation
• A sole proprietorship or a partnership may be formed
without filing any formal paperwork.
• The creators of a corporation, however, must file a
document known as the articles of incorporation.
Liability
• The owner(s) of a sole proprietorship or a partnership
may be held liable for any business activity and/or
obligation.
• Corporate shareholders, however, usually are liable only
for the amount they invested.
6
The d/c b/n the three forms of business…
Record Keeping
• Corporations are required to keep strict records of meetings and other
similar administrative activities,
while
• a sole proprietorship or a partnership typically is not required to do so.
Size
• A sole proprietorship can have only a single owner,
but
a partnership or a corporation may have any number of owners.
Taxes
• The owner of a sole proprietorship is required only to report the business’
earnings on tax return,
while
• a corporation or a partnership must file a separate return for the business.
7
What is Finance?
If we trace the origin of finance, there is evidence to
prove that it is as old as human life on earth.
The word finance was originally a French word.
In the 18th century, it was adapted by English
speaking communities to mean “the management of
money.”
Since then, it has found a permanent place in the
English dictionary.
Today, finance is not merely a word else has
emerged into an academic discipline of greater
significance.
Finance is now organized as a branch of Economics. 8
What is Finance……
• Furthermore, the one word which can easily
replace finance is “EXCHANGE."
• Finance is nothing but an exchange of available
resources.
• Finance is not restricted only to the exchange
and/or management of money.
• A barter trading system is also a type of finance.
• Thus, we can say, Finance is an art of managing
various available resources like money, assets,
investments, securities, etc.
9
What is Finance……..
• At present, we cannot imagine a world
without Finance.
• In other words, Finance is the soul of our
economic activities.
• To perform any economic activity, we
need certain resources, which are to be
pooled in terms of money (i.e. in the
form of currency notes, other valuables,
etc.). 10
What is Finance……..
• Finance is a prerequisite for obtaining physical
resources, which are needed to perform
productive activities and carrying business
operations such as sales, pay compensations,
reserve for contingencies (unascertained
liabilities) and so on.
• Hence, Finance has now become an organic
function and inseparable part of our day-to-day
lives.
• Today, it has become a word which we often
encounter on our daily basis. 11
What is Finance…….
1. In General sense,
• "Finance is the management of money and other
valuables, which can be easily converted into
cash."
2. According to Experts,
• "Finance is a simple task of providing the necessary
funds (money) required by the business of entities
like companies, firms, individuals and others on the
terms that are most favourable to achieve their
economic objectives."
12
What is Finance…….
3. According to Entrepreneurs,
• "Finance is concerned with cash. It is so, since, every
business transaction involves cash directly or
indirectly.“
4. According to Academicians,
• "Finance is the procurement (to get, obtain) of funds
and effective (properly planned) utilization of funds.
• It also deals with profits that adequately compensate
for the cost and risks borne by the business."
13
Career Opportunities in Finance
Capital Market and Institution
Many finance major works in FIs including bank and insurance
company, mutual funds, and investment banking firms
Investment
Works for brokerage houses either in sales or security analysts
Other works in banks, mutual funds, or insurance companies in
the management of their investment.
Financial Management
broadest of the three
One with the greatest number of job opportunities
It is very important in all types of business including banks and
other financial institutions as well as industrial and retail firms
FM is also important in government operations from school to
hospital, highway departments.
14
Job opportunities in Financial Management
16
Objectives of Financial Management
5. Disposal of surplus:
The net profits decision have to be made by the
finance manager.
This can be done in two ways:
A. Dividend declaration - It includes identifying the
rate of dividends and other benefits like bonus.
B. Retained profits - The volume has to be decided
which will depend upon expansional,
innovational, diversification plans of the company.
22
Functions of Financial Management…
6. Management of cash:
• Finance manager has to make decisions with
regards to cash management.
• Cash is required for many purposes like
payment of wages and salaries, payment of
electricity and water bills, payment to creditors,
meeting current liabilities, maintainance of
enough stock, purchase of raw materials, etc.
23
Functions of Financial Management…
7. Financial controls:
The finance manager has not only to plan,
procure and utilize the funds but he also has to
exercise control over finances.
This can be done through many techniques like
ratio analysis, financial forecasting, cost and
profit control, etc.
24
What are the Goals of the Firm?
(General Goals)
Survival
Avoid financial distress and bankruptcy
Beat the competition
Maximize sales or market share
Minimize costs
Maximize profits
Maintain steady earnings growth.
25
Shortcomings of these General Goals
Problems
These goals are either associated with
increasing profitability or reducing risk.
Could increase current profits while harming firm (e.g., defer
maintenance, issue common stock to buy Treasury-bills,
etc.).
Does not specify timing or duration of expected returns.
Calls for a zero payout dividend policy.
They are not consistent with the long-term interests of
shareholders.
So it is necessary to find a goal that can encompass
both profitability and risk.
26
The Real Goal of the Firm
Maximization of
Shareholder Wealth!
Shareholders’ wealth can be
measured as the current value per
share of existing shares.
27
Strengths of Shareholder Wealth
Maximization
Takes account of: current and
future profits and EPS; the timing,
duration, and risk of profits;
dividend policy; and all other
relevant factors.
Thus, share price serves as a
barometer for business
performance.
28
The Modern Organization
Modern Organization
Shareholders
There exists a
SEPARATION between
owners and managers.
29
Role of Management
30
Agency Theory
Jensen and Meckling developed a
theory of the firm based on agency
theory.
32
Social Responsibility
Wealth maximization does not stop the
firm from being socially responsible.
Assume we view the firm as producing
both private and social goods.
Then shareholder wealth maximization
remains the appropriate goal in
governing the firm.
33
Functions of the Financial Manager
Occasional Profitability
Daily
Risk
Organization of the Financial
Management Function
Board of Directors
President
(Chief Executive Officer)
35
Organization of the Financial
Management Function
36
The Objective of the Firm
39
The Objective of the Firm…
40
The Objective of the Firm…
1. investment decision
42
3. Dividend decision
43
CHAPTER 2
Financial Planning
and
Analysis of Financial Statements
44
Overview
• Ratios facilitate comparison of:
– One company over time
– One company versus other companies
• Ratios are used by:
– Lenders to determine creditworthiness
– Stockholders to estimate future cash flows and
risk
– Managers to identify areas of weakness and
strength
45
Income Statement
2010 2011E
Sales $5,834,400 $7,035,600
COGS 4,980,000 5,800,000
Other expenses 720,000 612,960
Deprec. 116,960 120,000
Tot. op. costs 5,816,960 6,532,960
EBIT 17,440 502,640
Int. expense 176,000 80,000
EBT (158,560) 422,640
Taxes (40%) (63,424) 169,056
Net income ($ 95,136) $ 253,584
46
Balance Sheets: Assets
2010 2011E
Cash $ 7,282 $ 14,000
S-T invest. 20,000 71,632
AR 632,160 878,000
Inventories 1,287,360 1,716,480
Total CA 1,946,802 2,680,112
Net FA 939,790 836,840
Total assets $2,886,592 $3,516,952
47
Balance Sheets: Liabilities & Equity
2010 2011E
Accts. Payable $ 324,000 $ 359,800
Notes payable 720,000 300,000
Accrual 284,960 380,000
Total CL 1,328,960 1,039,800
Long-term debt 1,000,000 500,000
Common stock 460,000 1,680,936
Ret. Earnings 97,632 296,216
Total equity 557,632 1,977,152
Total L&E $2,886,592 $3,516,952
48
Other Data
2010 2011E
Stock price $6.00 $12.17
# of shares 100,000 250,000
EPS -$0.95 $1.01
DPS $0.11 $0.22
Book val. per sh. $5.58 $7.91
Lease payments $40,000 $40,000
Tax rate 0.4 0.4
49
Five Categories of Fin. Ratios
• Liquidity
• Asset Mgmt
• Debt Mgmt
• Profitability
• Market Value
50
Five Categories of Fin. Ratios
• Liquidity: Ability to meet current obligations
• Asset Mgmt: Proper & effective use of assets
– Asset utilization (i.e., Total Asset Turnover Ratio:
• TAT = Sales / T. Assets
• Debt Mgmt: extent of debt & level of safety
afforded creditors
– Debt utilization (i.e., Equity Multiplier:
• EM = T. Assets / T. Eqty
51
Five Categories of Fin. Ratios
• Profitability: reflects effects of liquidity, asset
mgmt, & debt on operating results
– Expense Control: Profit Margin:
• PM = Net Income / Sales
52
Liquidity Ratios
• Can the company meet its short-term
obligations using resources it currently has on
hand?
53
Forecasted Current and Quick Ratios for
2011.
• CR10 = CA/CL= $2,680
$1,040
= 2.58.
• QR10 =CA - Inv.
CL
=$2,680 - $1,716
$1,040
= 0.93.
54
Comments on CR and QR
55
Asset Management Ratios
• How efficiently does firm use its assets?
• How much does firm have tied up in assets for
each dollar of sales?
56
Inventory Turnover Ratio vs. Industry Average
Inv. Turnover=Sales/Inventories
=$7,036
$1,716
= 4.10.
2011E 2010 2009 Ind.
Inv. T. 4.1 4.5 4.8 6.1
57
Comments on Inventory Turnover
• Inventory turnover: Below Industry average
• Firm might have old inventory, or its control
might be poor.
• No improvement is currently forecasted.
58
DSO: average number of days from sale until
cash received.
DSO=Receivables/Average sales per day
Receivables
Sales/365
$878
$7,036/365
= 45.5 days.
59
Appraisal of DSO
• Firm collects too slowly, and situation is
getting worse.
• Poor credit policy.
60
Fixed Assets and Total Assets
Turnover Ratios
• Fixed assets turnover= Sales
Net fixed assets
= $7,036
$837
= 8.41
• Total assets turnover= Sales
Total assets
= $7,036
$3,517
= 2.00
61
Fixed Assets and Total Assets
Turnover Ratios
• FA turnover: expected to exceed industry average.
Good.
• TA turnover not up to industry average. Implication?
Caused by excessive current assets (A/R and
inventory).
65
Simple and Compound Interest…
Solution
1. Simple interest rate
I=prt
= 100*5%*2=10ETB
I =10ETB
66
2. Compound Interest
I=prt
100*5%*1=5ETB
105*5%*1=5.25ETB
I= 5ETB+5.25ETB = 10.25ETB
Or
Compound Interest (Ic) = P × (1 + i) n – P
= 100*(1+0.05)^2
=100*(1.05)^2
=110.25-10
10.25
67
3.2 The Present Value
69
PV…..
Example
• What is $570 next year worth now, at an
interest rate of 10% ?
• PV = $570 / (1+0.10)1 = $570 / 1.10
= $518.18 (to nearest cent)
70
2.3 The Future Value
Example
3. Assume you have deposited 100ETB today at a
rate of 5%. What will be the amount after two
years?
FV=100*(1.05)^2
= 100*1.1025
= 110.25 71
FV…
Example
1. $1000 lump sum investment earning 10
percent interest per year. Determine the value
of your investment at the end of two years
72
2.4 Principle of Value Additivity
73
2.4 Principle of Value Additivity…
• The principle of value additivity can be applied to
calculate the present value of the income stream
Example:
• Compute the present value of the following income
stream of €1,000, €2000 and €3,000 in year 1, 2
and 3 from now, respectively. 10% interest rate
• PV= 1,000/(1.1)^1 + 2,000(1.1)^2 + 3,000(1.1)^3
74
2.5 Net Present Value
•Most projects require an initial
investment.
•Net present value is the difference
between the present value of future cash
flows and the initial investment, C0,
required to undertake the project:
76
• Project X requires an initial investment of $35,000 but is
expected to generate revenues of $10,000, $27,000 and
$19,000 for the first, second and third years,
respectively. The target rate of return is 12%. Since the
cash inflows are uneven, the second formula listed
above is used.
• NPV = {$10,000 / (1 + 0.12)1} + {$27,000 / (1 + 0.12)2} + {$19,000 / (1 + 0.12)3} - $35,000
NPV = $8,929 + $21,524 + $13,524 - $35,000
NPV = $8,977
77
• Project Y also requires a $35,000 initial
investment and will generate $27,000 per year
for two years. The target rate remains 12%.
Because each period produces equal revenues,
the first formula above can be used.
• NPV = $27,000/(1 + 0.12)2 - $35,000
NPV = $45,631 - $35,000
NPV = $10,631
78
2.6 Perpetuities and Annuities
Growing perpetuity
In case the cash flow of the perpetuity is
growing at a constant rate rather than being
constant, the present value formula is slightly
changed.
PV of Growing Perpetuity = C1/(r-g)
Example
6. Consider example three if there is a growth of
5% what is the PV of perpetuity?
80
2.6 Perpetuities and Annuities
81
Types of Annuities
82
Ordinary Annuity……
Example
7. Assume part of your portfolio is bond. One
particular bond will pay you 1000ETB for five
years at the end of each year. What is the
present value of the cash flows if the interest
rate is 10%?
PV of Annuity = 1000((1-1/(1+0.1)^5)
0.1
83
Example
8. If at the end of each month a saver deposited
100ETB into a saving account that paid 6%
compounded monthly, how would she/he has
at the end of 10years?
FV annuity = 100(1+0.06)^5-1
0.06
84
Types of Annuities….
Annuity Due: a series of equal cash
payments made at the beginning of each
period.
PV = PMT (1-1/(1+i) n
i
FV = PMT [(1+i) n - 1] * (1+ i)
i
Growing Annuities: a cash flow that grows
at a constant rate and paid at a regular
interval of time.
85
Example
9. The tressurer of ABC imports expects to invest
50,000 ETB of the firms funds in a long term
investment vehicle at the beginning of each year
for the next 5years. He expects that the company
will earn 6% interest that will compounded
annually. What is the value of payments at the
end of 5years?
FV annuity = ?
86
Example
10.
87
2.7 Nominal and Real Rates of Interest
Inflation is the rate at which prices as a whole are
increasing, whereas nominal interest rate is the
rate at which money invested grows.
The formula for converting nominal interest rate
to a real interest rate is:
88
2.7 Nominal and Real Rates of Interest
89
Example
• Suppose you bought 1000 ETB renaissance
dam bond with a coupon rate of 5.5%, the
inflation rate reported by government is 4%.
What is the real interest rate?
RR= (1+RN)/(1+RI) -1
90
Chapter 4
91
2.8 Valuing Bonds Using Present Value Formulas
•A bond is a debt contract that specifies a fixed set of
cash flows which the issuer has to pay to the
bondholder. The cash flows consist of a coupon
(interest) payment until maturity as well as repayment
of the par value of the bond at maturity.
•The value of a bond is equal to the present value of the
future cash flows:
1. Value of bond = PV(cash flows) = PV(coupons) +
PV(par value)
•Since the coupons are constant over time and received
for a fixed time period the present value can be found
by applying the annuity formula.
92
Example
11. Suppose ABC company issues 3years bond
with par value of 1000 ETB, that pays 4%
interest rate annually, which is also prevailing
market interest rate. What is the PV of the
payment?
93
Answer
• PV= c1/(1+i)n C2/(1+i)n+…..+ Cn/(1+i)n
= 40/(1+0.04)1 + 40/(1+0.04)2 + 1040/(1.0.04)3
94
Valuing Bonds…
96
Valuing Bonds…
97
Valuing Bonds…
100
Discounted Dividend Growth Model: The
Gordon Growth Model
• In cases where firms have constant growth
in the dividend a special version of the
discounted dividend model can be applied.
If the dividend grows at a constant rate, g,
the present value of the stock can be found
by applying the present value formula for
perpetuities with constant growth.
101
Example
12. Assume ABC company pays 3ETB dividend , a
required return is 5%, the dividend is expected
to grow by 3%. What is the value of the
stock?
Po= ?
102
2.10. The Net Present Value Investment Rule
• Net present value is the difference between a project's
value and its costs. Steps in determining NPV:
1. Forecast cash flows;
2. Determine the appropriate opportunity cost of capital,
which takes into account the principle of time value of
money and the risk-return trade-off;
3. Use the discounted cash flow formula and the
opportunity cost of capital to calculate the present value
of the future cash flows;
4. Find the net present value by taking the difference
between the present value of future cash flows and the
project's costs.
103
NPV…
To understand why the net present value rule leads to better
investment decisions than the alternatives it is worth considering the
desirable attributes for investment decision rules.
The goal of the corporation is to maximize firm value.
A shareholder value maximizing investment rule is:
- Based on all cash flows
-Taking into account time value of money
- Taking into account differences in risk
104
NPV…
The net present value rule meets all these requirements
and directly measures the value for shareholders
created by a project.
This is far from the case for several of the alternative
rules such as the Book rate of return, the payback
period, and the Internal Rate of Return.
Though both NPV and IRR methods give the same
investment decisions (whether to accept or reject a
project), they may not give the same ranking of
projects, which is a problem in case of mutually
exclusive projects.
105
CHAPTER - 4
3. Risk, Return and Opportunity Cost of Capital
Measurement of Risk
• The risk of financial assets can be measured
by the spread in potential outcomes.
• The variance and standard deviation on the
return are standard statistical measures of
this spread.
107
Risk-Return Tradeoff
108
Risk-Return Tradeoff…
• It follows from the risk-return tradeoff that
rational investors will when choosing between
two assets that offer the same expected return
prefer the less risky one.
• Thus, an investor will take on increased risk only
if compensated by higher expected returns.
Conversely, an investor who wants higher returns
must accept more risk.
• The exact trade-off will differ by investor based
on individual risk aversion characteristics (i.e. the
individual preference for risk taking).
109
3.2 The Effect of Diversification on Risk
• The risk of an individual asset can be measured by the
variance on the returns.
• The risk of individual assets can be reduced through
diversification.
• Diversification reduces the variability when the prices
of individual assets are not perfectly correlated. (is the
risk of investing on car and tier can be diversified?)
• In other words, investors can reduce their exposure to
individual assets by holding a diversified portfolio of
assets.
• As a result, diversification will allow for the same
portfolio return with reduced risk. 110
Effect of Diversification….
114
Measuring return
• 1. MEASURING HISTORICAL RETURN
PERIOD RETURN
Ri
1
2 12
3 20
4 -10
5 14
6 9
Ri = 60
115
Solution
• Historical return /Average return
n
E (R) = Ri /n
i=1
=60/6
=10
116
MEASURING EXPECTED (EX ANTE)
RETURN
117
118
3.3 Measuring Market Risk
120
MEASURING EXPECTED (EX ANTE)
RETURN AND RISK
2 = pi (Ri - E(R) )2
121
• Bharat Foods Stock
State of the
Economy pi Ripi Ri (Eri Ri-E(R) (Ri-E(R))2 pi(Ri-E(R))2
1. Boom 0.30 16 4.8 11.2 125.44 37.632
2. Normal 0.50 11 5.5 5.5 30.25 15.125
Recession 0.20 6 1.2 4.8 23.04 4.608
E(R ) = SpiRi = 11.5 Spi(Ri –E(R))2 = 57.36 σ 2 = [Spi(Ri-E(R))2 = (57.635) = --
%
122
123
124
MEASUREMENT OF COMOVEMENTS IN SECURITY RETURNS
125
Hypothetical example
Economic growth (Xi) S&P 500 return (yi)
2.1 8
2.5 12
4 14
3.6 10
126
• Mean of x= 2.1+2.5+4+6 )/4= 3.1
• Mean of y= 8+12+14+10)/4= 11
• Cov. (x,y)= (2.1-3.1)(8-11)+ (2.5-3.1)(12-11)+ (4-
3.1)(14-11)+(3.6-3.1)(10-11)/4-1
• =4.6/3= 1.53
• Interpretation
• Since positive, the variables are positively related.
They move together in the same direction.
• Are affected in the same way with a market.
127
• Variance of the market is; s 2 = (yi-y) 2
=(8-11) 2 + (12-11) 2 + (14-11) 2 + (10-11) 2
=9+1+9+1
=20
s 2 = 1.53/20
= 0.0765
Lower risk than the market
128
Comevement of expected return
• COV (Ri , Rj) = p1 [Ri1 – E(Ri)] [ Rj1 – E(Rj)]
129
Illustration
• The returns on assets A and B under five possible states of nature are given below
• State of nature Probability Return on asset 1 Return on asset 2
• 1 0.10 -10% 5%
• 2 0.30 15 12
• 3 0.30 18 19
• 4 0.20 22 15
• 5 0.10 27 12
•
• The expected return on asset 1 is :
• E(RA) = 0.10 (-10%) + 0.30 (15%) + 0.30 (18%) + 0.20 (22%) + 0.10 (27%) = 16%
1. State of nature 2. P (2) Ra (3) Rai-a (4) Rbi (5) Rbi-b (6) (2) x (4) x
(6)
•1 0.10 -10% -26% 5% -9% 23.4
•2 0.30 15% -1% 12% -2% 0.6
•3 0.30 18% 2% 19% 5% 3.0
•4 0.20 22% 6% 15% 1% 1.2
•5 0.10 27% 11% 12% -2% -2.2
Sum = 26.0
Thus the covariance between the returns on the two assets is 26.0.
131
CO EFFIENT OF CORRELATION
133
Hypothetical example on portfolio return
134
Solution
Rp = wArA+wBrB
= 1/3(18) + 2/3(9)
= 6%+6%
= 12%
135
Example.
• Example A portfolio consists of four
securities with expected returns of 12%,
15%, 18%, and 20% respectively. The
proportions of portfolio value invested in
these securities are 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, and 0.20
respectively.
1. Compute the portfolio expected return.
136
3.4.1 Portfolio Variance
139
• Example : w1 = 0.6 , w2 = 0.4,
1 = 10%, 2 = 16%
12 = 0.5
140
• p = [0.62 x 102 + 0.42 x 162 +2 x 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.5
x 10 x 16]½
= 10.7%
• The average standard deviation of two
securities is 13, which is less than standard
deviation of the portfolio, which is 10. Thus
diversification reduces risk.
141
Portfolio Variance…
142
3.4.2 Portfolio's Market Risk
143
3.5 Portfolio Theory
145
Portfolio Theory…
146
Portfolio Theory…
The solid line along the upper edge of this region is known as the
efficient frontier. Combinations along this line represent portfolios
for which there is lowest risk for a given level of return. Conversely,
for a given amount of risk, the portfolio lying on the efficient
frontier represents the combination offering the best possible return.
Thus, the efficient frontier is a collection of portfolios, each one
optimal for a given amount of risk. 149
Portfolio Theory…
•The Sharpe-ratio measures the amount of return above the
risk-free rate a portfolio provides compared to the risk it
carries.
152
Figure 5: Portfolio theory
Market
Expected Return (%) portfolio
Standard Deviation
153
•The tangent portfolio is called the market
portfolio. The market portfolio is the portfolio on
the efficient frontier with the highest Sharpe-ratio.
Market
Security Market Line
Expected Return (%)
portfolio
Beta () 1.0
157
The relationship between risk and required return is
plotted on the securities market line, which shows
expected return as a function of risk.
Thus, the security market line essentially graphs the
results from the CAPM theory.
The x-axis represents the risk (beta), and the y-axis
represents the expected return.
The intercept is the risk-free rate available for the
market, while the slope is the market risk premium (rm
- r f)
CAPM is a simple but powerful model. Moreover it
takes into account the basic principles of portfolio
selection: 158
1.Efficient portfolios (Maximize expected
return subject to risk).
2.Highest ratio of risk premium to standard
deviation is a combination of the market
portfolio and the risk-free asset.
3.Individual stocks should be selected based
on their contribution to portfolio risk.
4.Beta measures the marginal contribution
of a stock to the risk of the market portfolio.
159
• CAPM theory predicts that all assets should be
priced such that they fit along the security market
line one way or the other.
• If a stock is priced such that it offers a higher
return than what is predicted by CAPM, investors
will rush to buy the stock.
• The increased demand will be reflected in a
higher stock price and subsequently in lower
return.
160
• This will occur until the stock fits on the security
market line.
• Similarly, if a stock is priced such that it offers a
lower return than the return implied by CAPM,
investor would hesitate to buy the stock.
• This will provide a negative impact on the stock
price and increase the return until it equals the
expected value from CAPM.
161
Testing the CAPM
Beta vs. Average Risk Premium
Average Risk
Premium
30 SML
Investors
20
10
Market
Portfolio
0
1.0
Portfolio Beta
162
Hypothetical example on CAPM
• Question
Asset Beta
X 1.5
Y 0.8
Z 2.5
Rf = 4%
Rm = 12%
Rx = Rf+Bx (Rm-Rf)
= 4%+1.5(12%-4%)
= 16%
Compute Ry, Rz 163
3.7 Alternative Asset Pricing Models: APT
167
APT…
1.A diversified portfolio designed to
eliminate the macroeconomic risk (i.e.
have zero sensitivity to each factor) is
essentially risk-free and will therefore be
priced such that it offers the risk-free rate
as interest.
2.A diversified portfolio designed to be
exposed to e.g. factor1, will offer a risk
premium that varies in proportion to the
portfolio's sensitivity to factor1. 168
3.7.2 Consumption Beta
172
Value of Preferred Stock
Where
DIV = dividend
P= is price
173
Value of Preferred Stock…..
174
Calculating Free Cash Flows
176
What Should You Do With This Information?
179
Valuing Businesses…
Where
FCFi = denotes free cash flows in year i,
WACC = the after-tax weighted average cost of capital and
PVt = the horizon value at time t.
180
There exist two common methods of how to
estimate the horizon value.
1.Apply the constant growth discounted
cash flow model, which requires a forecast
of the free cash flow in year t+1 as well as a
long-run growth rate (g):
181
2. Apply multiples of earnings, which
assumes that the value of the firm can be
estimated as a multiple on earnings before
interest and taxes (EBIT) or earnings
before interest, taxes, depreciation, and
amortization (EBITDA):
PVt = EBIT Multiple . EBIT
PVt = EBITDA Multiple . EBITDA
182
Valuing Businesses…
Example:
- If other firms within the industry trade at 6
times EBIT and the firm's EBIT is forecasted
to be €10 million, the terminal value at time t
is equal to 6*10 = €60 million.
183
Capital budgeting in practice
Firms should invest in projects that are worth more than they
cost. Investment projects are only worth more than they cost
when the net present value is positive.
The net present value of a project is calculated by discounting
future cash flows, which are forecasted.
Thus, projects may appear to have positive NPV because of
errors in the forecasting.
To evaluate the influence of forecasting errors on the estimated
net present value of the projects several tools exist:
184
Capital budgeting in practice…
1. Sensitivity Analysis
– Analysis of the effect on estimated NPV when underlying
assumptions change, e.g. market size, market share or
opportunity cost of capital.
– Sensitivity analysis uncovers how sensitive NPV is to
changes in key variables.
185
Capital budgeting in practice…
2. Scenario Analysis
Analyzes the impact on NPV of a particular
combination of assumptions.
Scenario analysis is particularly helpful if variables
are interrelated, e.g. if the economy enters a
recession due to high oil prices, both the firm’s cost
structure, the demand for the product and inflation
might change.
186
Capital budgeting in practice…
Senario Analysis ……
Thus, rather than analyzing the effect on NPV of a
single variable (as sensitivity analysis) scenario
analysis considers the effect on NPV of a consistent
combination of variables.
– Scenario analysis calculates NPV in different states,
e.g. pessimistic, normal, and optimistic.
Pessimistic – what happen when the economy enter
into recession
Increase in oil price which leads to
Inflation
Change of dd for the produt
change of cost structure
187
Capital budgeting in practice…
188
Capital budgeting in practice…
192
Market Efficiency
199
Debt Characteristics
Debt maturity
Short-term debt is due in less than 1Y
Long-term debt is due in more than 1Y
Debt can take many forms:
Bank overdraft
Commercial papers – used to finance your short term
financial needs. Rated as low credit risk. Eg. Promissory note
Mortgage loans
Bank loans
Subordinated convertible securities – which can be
converted to common stock at the option of the holder
Leases
Convertible bond
200
6.2 Equity Characteristics
Ordinary shareholders:
- Are the owners of the business
- Have limited liability
- Hold an equity interest or residual claim on cash flows
- Have voting rights
Preferred shareholders:
-Shares that take priority over ordinary shares in
regards to dividends
- Right to specified dividends
- Have characteristics of both debt (fixed dividend) and
equity (no final repayment date)
- Have no voting privileges 201
Debt Policy
The firm's debt policy is the firm's choice of mix of debt and
equity financing, which is referred to as the firm's capital
structure.
The prior section highlighted that this choice is not just a simple
choice between the financing sources: debt or equity.
204
Debt Policy in a Perfect Capital Market …
205
- VU = EU for the unlevered Firm U
-VL = DL + EL for the levered Firm L
-Then, consider buying 1 percent of either firm U or
1 percent of L. Since Firm U is wholly equity
financed the investment of 1% of the value of U
would return 1% of the profits.
-However, as Firm L is financed by a mix of debt
and equity, buying 1 percent of Firm L is equivalent
to buying 1% of the debt and 1% of the equity.
-The investment in debt returns 1% of the interest
payment, whereas the 1% investment in equity
returns 1% of the profits after interest. 206
Value of the firm
investment Return
1% Firm U 1%.Vu = EU 1%profit
207
Miller and Modigliani's Proposition I
209
Miller and Modigliani's Proposition II
210
Miller and Modigliani's Proposition II
214
How Capital Structure Affects the Beta Measure of Risk…..
215
How Capital Structure affects Company Cost of
Capital
219
Introducing Corporate Taxes and Cost of Financial Distress …
Where:
Value of all equity financed=NI/k
220
Example- Value of unlevered firm
Option –I
ALL EQUITY FINANCING-100% E
Sales…………………………………10,000
Costs…………………………………(6,000)
EBIT…………………………………....4,000
Interest……………………………………..0
EBT………………………………………4000
Tax (.4*4000)…………………….(1,600)
N/P…………………………………….2,400ETB
Vu=NI/k
Given k=16%
= 2,400/0.16
= 15,000
221
Example- debt and equity proportion
Option –II
50%D and 50%E
Sales…………………………………10,000
Costs…………………………………(6,000)
EBIT…………………………………....4,000
Interest…………………………………(600)
EBT………………………………………3,400
Tax (.4*3,400)……………………..(1,360)
N/P…………………………………….2,040ETB
VL= Vu+Tc*D
=15,000+0.4(5000)
= 15,000+2,000
=17,000
222
Introducing Corporate Taxes and Cost of Financial Distress …
226
In summary, introducing corporate
taxes and cost of financial distress
provides a benefit and a cost of
financial leverage.
The trade-off theory conjectures that
the optimal capital structure is a
trade-off between interest tax shields
and cost of financial distress.
227
The Trade-off Theory of Capital Structure
228
The Trade-off Theory of Capital Structure
The present value of tax shields is then added to form the red line.
Note that PV(tax shield) initially increases as the firm borrows
more, until additional borrowing increases the probability of
financial distress rapidly.
In addition, the firm cannot be sure to benefit from the full tax
shield if it borrows excessively as it takes positive earnings to save
corporate taxes.
Cost of financial distress is assumed to increase with the debt
level.
229
Figure 10, Trade-off theory of capital structure
Maximum
value of firm
Costs of
financial
distress
PV of
interest
tax shields
Value of
unlevered
firm
Distributions to Shareholders:
Dividends and Repurchases
237
Does the Firm's Dividend Policy Affect Firm Value?
The objective of the firm is to maximize shareholder
value. A central question regarding the firm's dividend
policy is therefore whether the dividend policy changes
firm value?
As the dividend policy is the trade-off between retained
earnings and paying out cash, there exist three opposing
views on its effect on firm value:
1.Dividend policy is irrelevant in a competitive
market
2.High dividends increase value
3.Low dividends increase value
The first view is represented by the Miller and Modigliani
dividend-irrelevance proposition. 238
Do investors prefer high or low payouts?
239
1. Miller and Modigliani Dividend-
Irrelevance Proposition
In a perfect capital market the dividend policy is
irrelevant. Assumptions
o No market imperfections
o No taxes
o No transaction costs
240
Miller and Modigliani Dividend-
Irrelevance Proposition…
• Investors are indifferent between dividends
and retention-generated capital gains. If they
want cash, they can sell stock. If they don’t
want cash, they can use dividends to buy
stock.
• Modigliani-Miller support irrelevance.
• Implies payout policy has no effect on stock
value or the required return on stock.
• Theory is based on unrealistic assumptions (no
taxes or brokerage costs).
241
Dividend Preference (Bird-in-the-Hand)
Theory
• Investors might think dividends (i.e., the-bird-
in-the-hand) are less risky than potential
future capital gains.
• Also, high payouts help reduce agency costs by
depriving managers of cash to waste and
causing managers to have more scrutiny by
going to the external capital markets more
often.
• Therefore, investors would value high payout
firms more highly and would require a lower
return to induce them to buy its stock.
242
Tax Effect Theory
• Low payouts mean higher capital gains. Capital
gains taxes are deferred until they are realized,
so they are taxed at a lower effective rate than
dividends.
• This could cause investors to require a higher
pre-tax return to induce them to buy a high
payout stock, which would result in a lower
stock price.
243
Chapter-8
Options
244
Chapter-8
Options
245
Reader Two
Financial Objectives and Shareholder Wealth
Investors maximize their wealth by selecting
optimum investment and financing opportunities,
using financial models that maximize expected
returns in absolute terms at minimum risk.
The normative objective of financial management
should be:
To implement investment and financing decisions
using risk-adjusted wealth maximizing criteria, which
satisfy the firm’s owners (the shareholders) by placing
them all in an equal, optimum financial position. 246
Financial Objectives and Shareholder Wealth…
•Armed with agency theory, you will discover that
the function of strategic financial management can
be deconstructed into four major components
based on the mathematical concept of expected
net present value (ENPV) maximization:
•The investment, dividend, financing and
portfolio decisions.
•In our ideal world, each is designed to maximize
shareholders’ wealth using the market price of an
ordinary share (or common stock to use American
parlance) as a performance criterion.
247
Financial Objectives and Shareholder Wealth…
255