BASIC

CONCEPTS OF
PROBABILITY
Prepared by:
Manalo, Queen May I.
LEARNING
OBJECTIVES
At the end of the 1-hour instruction time, at least 90% of the students
shall have attained mastery of the following learning competencies and able
to:

1. To learn the concept of an event, sample space associated with a random

experiment.
2. To apply probability rules in classical probability theory
3. To understand to concept of Empirical probability, Law of Large Numbers, and
Subjective Probability
4. Solve problems involving basic concepts of probability.
5. Appreciate the importance of basic concepts of probability in solving real-life
problems.
4 PICS, 1 WORD

Probability
4 PICS, 1 WORD

Event
4 PICS, 1 WORD

Experiment
ACTIVITY:
LIST THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

 Rolling a die
ACTIVITY:
LIST THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

  Tossing a Coin
 DEFINITION
PROBABILITY
 Defined as the mathematics of chance.
 Some aspects of probability by observing or playing gambling
games such as lotteries, slot machines, black jack, or roulette.
 However, probability theory is used in many other areas such
as business, insurance, weather forecasting, and in everyday
life.
 DEFINITION
PROBABILITY
EXPERIMENT
 Chance processes, such as flipping a coin, rolling a die
(singular for dice), or drawing a card at random from a well-
shuffled deck are called probability experiments.
 A chance process that leads to well-defined outcomes or
results. For example, tossing a coin can be considered a
probability experiment since there are two well-defined
outcomes—heads and tails.
 DEFINITION
 An outcome of a probability experiment is the result of a
single trial of a probability experiment.
 A trial means flipping a coin once, or drawing a single card
from a deck.
 The set of all outcomes of a probability experiment is called a
sample space.
EXAMPLE
Experiment Sample Space
Toss one coin H, T

Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Toss two coins HH, HT, TH, TT

 DEFINITION
 When a single die is rolled, you may want to consider
obtaining an even number; that is, a two, four, or six. This is
called an event. An event then usually consists of one or
more outcomes of the sample space.
 An event with one outcome is called a simple event.
 When an event consists of two or more outcomes, it is called
a compound event.
 EXAMPLE
A single die is rolled. List the outcomes in each event:

a. Getting an odd number

 EXAMPLE
A single die is rolled. List the outcomes in each event:

b. Getting a number greater than four

 EXAMPLE
A single die is rolled. List the outcomes in each event:

c. Getting less than one

When you roll a die, you cannot get a

number less than one; hence, the event
contains no outcomes.
 EXERCISE
Identify the experiment, event, sample space, and outcome in
each given.

A. Tossing a coin.
B. A spinner with numbers 1,2,3, and 4.
C. Drawing a card from a standard deck of cards.
 EXERCISE
A. Tossing a coin.

EXPERIMENT: TOSSING A COIN

SAMPLE SPACE: {H,T}
EVENT: GETTING A TAIL
OUTCOME: {T}
 EXERCISE
B. A spinner with numbers 1,2,3, and 4.

EXPERIMENT: SPINNING A SPINNER WITH NUMBERS 1-4

SAMPLE SPACE: {1,2,3,4}
EVENT: GETTING AN EVEN NUMBER
OUTCOME: {2,4}
 EXERCISE
C. Drawing a card from a standard deck of cards.

EXPERIMENT: Drawing a card from a standard deck of cards.

SAMPLE SPACE:
EVENT: GETTING AN ACE CARDS
OUTCOME: {ACE OF SPADE, ACE OF HEARTS, ACE OF
DIAMOND, ACE OF CLOVES}
 CLASSICAL
PROBABILITY
Sample spaces are used in classical probability to
determine the numerical probability that an event will occur.
The formula for determining the probability of an event is
 EXAMPLE
Two coins are tossed; find the probability that both coins land
heads up.
Experiment Sample Space
Toss two coins HH, HT, TH, TT

𝟏
𝑷 ( 𝑯𝑯 ) =
𝟒
 EXAMPLES
A die is tossed; find the probability of each
event:

a. Getting a two
b. Getting an even number
c. Getting a number less than 5
 SOLUTIONS
The sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, so there are six outcomes in
the sample space.
a. , since there is only one way to obtain a 2.
b. , since there are three ways to get an odd number, 1, 3, or 5.
c. , since there are four numbers in the sample space less than
5.
 EXAMPLE
A dish contains 8 red jellybeans, 5 yellow jellybeans, 3 black jellybeans,
and 4 pink jellybeans. If a jellybean is selected at random, find the
probability that it is

a. red jellybean c. Not yellow

b. A black or pink jellybean d. An orange jellybean
 EXAMPLE
A dish contains 8 red jellybeans, 5 yellow jellybeans, 3 black jellybeans,
and 4 pink jellybeans. If a jellybean is selected at random, find the
probability that it is
Colors Number of Jellybeans
Red 8
Yellow 5
Black 3
Pink 4
Total 20
 EXAMPLE
A dish contains 8 red jellybeans, 5 yellow jellybeans, 3 black jellybeans,
and 4 pink jellybeans. If a jellybean is selected at random, find the
probability that it is
Colors
Number of a. Red jellybean
Jellybeans
Red 8 Solution:
Yellow 5
Black 3
Pink 4
Total 20
 EXAMPLE
A dish contains 8 red jellybeans, 5 yellow jellybeans, 3 black jellybeans,
and 4 pink jellybeans. If a jellybean is selected at random, find the
probability that it is
Number of
Colors
Jellybeans b. A black or pink jellybean
Red 8
Solution:
Yellow 5
Black 3
Pink 4
Total 20
 EXAMPLE
A dish contains 8 red jellybeans, 5 yellow jellybeans, 3 black jellybeans,
and 4 pink jellybeans. If a jellybean is selected at random, find the
probability that it is
Number of
Colors
Jellybeans c. Not yellow
Red 8
Solution:
Yellow 5
Black 3
Pink 4
Total 20
 EXAMPLE
A dish contains 8 red jellybeans, 5 yellow jellybeans, 3 black jellybeans,
and 4 pink jellybeans. If a jellybean is selected at random, find the
probability that it is
Number of
Colors
Jellybeans d. An orange jellybean
Red 8
Solution:
Yellow 5
,
Black 3
since there are no orange jellybeans.
Pink 4
Total 20
 PROBABILITY
RULES
The probability of any event will always be a number from zero to
one.

 This can be denoted mathematically as .

 All answers to probability problems will be numbers
ranging from zero to one.
 Probabilities cannot be negative nor can they be greater
than one.
 PROBABILITY
RULES
 For example, if the chances that you will win a certain lottery are 0.00l or one in
one thousand, you probably won’t win, unless of course, you are very ‘‘lucky.’’

 When the probability of an event is 0.5 or , there is a 50–50 chance that the event
will happen—the same probability of the two outcomes when flipping a coin.
When the probability of an event is close to one, the event is almost sure to occur.
 PROBABILITY
RULES
When an event cannot occur, the probability will be zero.

EXAMPLE:
A die is rolled; find the probability of getting a 7.

SOLUTION:
Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, and there is no way
to get a 7, . The event in this case has no outcomes when the sample
space is considered.
 PROBABILITY
RULES
When an event is certain to occur, the probability is 1.

EXAMPLE:
A die is rolled; find the probability of getting a number less than 7.
 
SOLUTION:
Since all outcomes in the sample space are less than 7, the
probability is = 1.
 PROBABILITY
RULES
The sum of the probabilities of all of the outcomes in the sample
space is 1.

Referring to the sample space for tossing two coins (HH,

HT, TH, TT), each outcome has a probability of and the sum
of the probabilities of all of the outcomes is
 PROBABILITY
RULES
The probability that an event will not occur is equal to 1 minus
the probability that the event will occur.

If an event E consists of certain outcomes, then event (E bar) is

called the complement of event E and consists of the outcomes in the
sample space which are not outcomes of event E.
EXAMPLE:
If the chance of rain is 0.60 (60%), find the probability that it won’t rain.

SOLUTION:
Since and = , the probability that it won’t rain is 1 0.60= 0.40 or 40%. Hence the
probability that it won’t rain is 40%.
 EMPIRICAL
PROBABILITY
Probabilities can be computed for situations that do not use sample
spaces. In such cases, frequency distributions are used and the probability is
called empirical probability. For example, suppose a class of students consists
of 4 freshmen, 8 sophomores, 6 juniors, and 7 seniors. The information can
be summarized in a frequency distribution as follows:

Rank Frequency
To get the probability, we are going to use
Freshmen 4
the formula:
Sophomores 8
Juniors 6
Seniors 7
Total 25
 EMPIRICAL
PROBABILITY
Suppose a class of students consists of 4 freshmen, 8 sophomores, 6
juniors, and 7 seniors. The information can be summarized in a frequency
distribution as follows:
Rank Frequency Let's find the probability of selecting a
Freshmen 4 junior student at random.
Sophomores 8
Juniors 6
Seniors 7
Total 25
 EXAMPLE
A recent survey found If a person is selected at random, find the
that the ages of workers in probability that the person is
a factory is distributed as a. 40 or older
follows: 𝒇𝒓𝒆𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝑬
𝑷 ( 𝑬 )=
Age Number 𝒔𝒖𝒎 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒇𝒆𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒆𝒔
20-29 18
30-39 27
Solution:
40-49 36
50-59 16
60 or older 3
Total 100
 EXAMPLE
A recent survey found If a person is selected at random, find the
that the ages of workers in probability that the person is
a factory is distributed as b. Under 40 years old.
follows: 𝒇𝒓𝒆𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝑬
𝑷 ( 𝑬 )=
Age Number 𝒔𝒖𝒎 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒇𝒆𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒆𝒔
20-29 18
30-39 27
Solution:
40-49 36
50-59 16
60 or older 3
Total 100
 EMPIRICAL
PROBABILITY
Another aspect of empirical probability is that if a large number of
subjects (called a sample) are selected from a particular group
(called a population), and the probability of a specific attribute is
computed, then when another subject is selected, we can say that
the probability that this subject has the same attribute is the same as
the original probability computed for the group.
 EMPIRICAL
PROBABILITY
Example:

A Gallup Poll of 1004 adults surveyed found that 17% of the

subjects stated that they considered Abraham Lincoln to be the greatest
President of the United States.
Now if a subject is selected, the probability that he or she will say
that Abraham Lincoln was the greatest president is also 17%.
 EMPIRICAL
PROBABILITY
Example:

The same study found 7% considered George Washington to be the

greatest President. If a person is selected at random, find the
probability that he or she considers George Washington to be the
greatest President.

The probability that he or she will say that George Washington was
the greatest president is also 7%.
 EMPIRICAL
PROBABILITY
Example:

In a sample of 642 people over 25 years of age, 160 had a

bachelor’s degree. If a person over 25 years of age is selected, find the
probability that the person has a bachelor’s degree.

or about 25%.
 EMPIRICAL
PROBABILITY
Example:

In the sample study of 642 people, it was found that 514 people
have a high school diploma. If a person is selected at random, find the
probability that the person does not have a high school diploma.

The probability that a person has a high school diploma is

 EMPIRICAL
PROBABILITY
Hence, the probability that a person does not have a high school
diploma is
 LAW OF LARGE
NUMBERS
As the number of tosses increases, the ratio of the
number of heads to the total number of tosses will get closer
to . This phenomenon is known as the law of large numbers.
This law holds for any type of gambling game such as rolling
dice, playing roulette, etc.
 SUBJECTIVE
PROBABILITY
Subjective probability is based upon an educated guess, estimate,
opinion, or inexact information. For example, a sportswriter may say
that there is a 30% probability that the Pittsburgh Steelers will be in the
Super Bowl next year. Here the sportswriter is basing his opinion on
subjective information such as the relative strength of the Steelers, their
opponents, their coach, etc.
 TAKE-AWAY 
 Probability is the mathematics of chance.
 There are three types of probability: classical probability, empirical
probability, and subjective probability.
 Classical probability uses sample spaces.
 A sample space is the set of outcomes of a probability experiment.
 The range of probability is from 0 to 1.
 If an event cannot occur, its probability is 0.
 If an event is certain to occur, its probability is 1.
 TAKE-AWAY 
 Classical probability is defined as the number of ways (outcomes)
the event can occur divided by the total number of outcomes in the
sample space.
 Empirical probability uses frequency distributions, and it is defined as
the frequency of an event divided by the total number of frequencies.
 Subjective probability is made by a person’s knowledge of the
situation and is basically an educated guess as to the chances of an
event occurring.
 APPLICATION
Answer the following.
 
1. A spinner for a child’s game has the numbers 1 through 9 evenly spaced. If a child spins, find each
probability:
a. The number is divisible by 3.
b. The number is an even number.
2. Two coins are tossed. Find each probability:
a. Getting two tails.
b. Getting two heads.
3. On a roulette wheel there are 38 sectors. Of these sectors, 18 are red, 18 are black, and 2 are green.
When the wheel is spun, find the probability that the ball will land on
a. Red
b. Green
4. In a recent survey of 356 children aged 19–24 months, it was found that 89 ate French fries. If a child is
selected at random, find the probability that he or she eats French fries.
5. A recent survey found that 74% of those questioned get some of the news from the Internet. If a person is
selected at random, find the probability that the person does not get any news from the Internet.