Binomial Distribution

Probability Distributions
In S1 we saw that a random variable has an associated probability distribution.
This had two components:

1 Outcomes
expressed as a set

2 A probability distribution
which maps outcomes to probabilities

Description Outcomes Probability Function

Throwing a fair die. {1,2,3,4,5,6 } for all
? ?

{
Number of heads seen 1
𝑥= 0,2
after throwing a coin 4
Note that we said on the left 𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑥 ) =
twice. ?is the outcome,
that the count ?1 𝑥 =1
not what each coin was! 2
S2 – Chapter 2 – Binomial Distribution

Lesson 1: Introduction to Combinatorics

Factorial and Choose Function
Q1 How many ways are there of arranging 5 different coloured beads in a line?

There are 5 choices for the first beads. 4 for the second, and so on.
So possibilities.
is the factorial function, and gives us ?
the number of ways of arranging
distinguishable objects.
Factorial and Choose Function
How many ways are there of arranging 2 red beads and 3 blue beads in a line?
Q2
We can’t distinguish each of the red beads, nor the blue beads.

These 2 arrangements are actually the same!

Click for
𝑅1 𝐵1 𝐵2 𝑅2 𝐵3 Bromanimation
Answer

#3: There are similarly

Ways of arranging the blue
#1: As before there are
beads, so we need to divide
ways of arranging the 5
by
beads.
#4: So there are ways of arranging the beads.
#2: However, since there Another way of thinking about it is that we’re
are ways of arranging the “choosing” 2 of the 5 slots in the line for the red beads
red beads, each 2! to go in.
possibilities represents the We can write this as said “5 choose 2”.
same arrangement, so we
divide by to account for
is the number of ways of choosing items
duplicates.
from where the order of the items in the
choice don’t matter.
Test Your Understanding
T1 How many ways of arranging the T4 I throw a coin 8 times. How many
letters in the word TELEVISION? possibilities are there in which I threw
There are 10! ways of arranging 10 4 Heads?
distinct things.
But the 2! ways of arranging the E’s Example sequences: HHTTHTTH,
lead to the same word. HHHHTTTT, …
By the same logic as before, we are
?
And the 2! Ways of arranging the I’s
lead to the same word. choosing 4 of the 8?positions in the
sequences to put ‘H’ in, so
possibilities.

How many ways of arranging 3 red

If you have 8 people at a dinner table, how
T2 balls, and 4 green balls in a line?
T5 many ways are there for 6 of them to be
left-handed?

How many ways ?

We’re counting the possible choices of 6
of arranging 4 red
balls, 3 green balls and 2 blue balls in
people out of 8.
That’s possibilities.
?
T3 a line?

?
 Exercise 1X (Not in textbook)

5 I’m a waiter serving a table of 10. I have 7 fish dishes

1 How many ways are there of arranging 10 (each the same) and 3 veg dishes (each the same).
red balls and 5 blue balls in a line. How many ways can meals be served to the table?
We can choose 3 people to give the fish dishes to out
? of the 10. ?
How many ways are there of arranging
2 the letters in the word BANANA? I throw a fair dice 20 times. How many possibilities are
6 there in which I saw a 1 eight times?
?
How many sequences can we make
consisting of 3 A’s, 4 B’s, and 5 C’s (e.g. ?
I have 10 different pieces of fruit to pick from. I pick 3,
3 ABCCBAACBCC) and put them in a line. How many possible lines of
7 fruit are there?

Given that in the lottery you pick 6 distinct

?
numbers from 1 to 49, what’s the ?
Hard: How many possible lottery tickets are there
probability you win the lottery? where exactly 3 of the 6 numbers match (given there
4 There are possible tickets. So probability were again 49 numbers to choose from)
is 8 There are possible ways of choosing the 3 numbers which
matched. However there are ways of choosing the 3
numbers which didn’t match. So

?
?
Probability based Questions
A fair die is rolled 8 times. Find the probability of:
a) No sixes
Q b) Only 3 sixes
c) 4 twos and 4 sixes

a Probability of not rolling a six is

?
3 were six and 5 weren’t six.
If ‘S’ means a six was thrown and ‘N’ means it wasn’t throw, one possibility is
b SSNNNSNN, which has probability
But there’s ways of arranging 3 S’s and 5 N’s. So:

?
S2 – Chapter 2 – Binomial Distribution

Lesson 2: Binomial Distribution

Test Your Understanding
I throw a unfair coin 10 times, where the probability of heads is . What’s the
probability of throwing 3 heads?
Q Let be a random variable which counts the number of heads seen in 10 throws.
Determine the probability distribution.
For convenience you can use as the probability of tails (where )

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

Notice that each of the terms form the Binomial Expansion of (as per
C2). Since , , which shows that the probabilities add to 1 (as we’d
hope!)

For this reason we call this type of distribution a Binomial Distribution.

Binomial Distribution
e.g. We threw a coin times.
! We have a Binomial Distribution when we have:

1. a FIXED number trials.

So that we’re allowed to multiply
2. The trials are INDEPENDENT. the probabilities together from
3. A CONSTANT probability of success (in each trial) each trial

4. TWO outcomes in each trial, “success” and “failure”. We’re counting heads, so throwing
a heads is the “success”.

If these conditions are met, a random variable whose outcome is the

number of successes is Binomially distributed:

is number of successes. If trials and successes,

must be failures.

FICT
Quickfire Questions
Show the calculation required to find the indicated probability given the distribution.

?
 Is it Binomially Distributed?
Is a Binomial Distribution appropriate as a model? The number of red
balls selected
when 3 balls are
Some number out drawn from bag of
of 8 people being Number of throws on Number of girls in 15 white and 5 red
left-handed die until 6 obtained family of 4 children balls.

1. We have a fixed No, not fixed. This is

number trials.  known as a ‘Geometric
Distribution’ (which we
 
won’t cover)
2. Each trial has two
possibilities,
“success” and    
“failure”.
?
Usually. But in my ? 
? ?
3. The trials are story, genetics has
Technically the probability of Only if balls drawn

having a girl increases if you
independent. previously had a girl, and vice with replacement.
an influence on
versa. But the probability is
handedness. still close to 0.5, so Binomial
Distribution is appropriate.

Only if balls drawn

4. There is a fixed
probability of    with replacement,

success in each trial.

Test Your Understanding

Q1 What is ?

What is ?
?
I have a bag of 2 red and 8 white balls. represents the number of
red balls I chose after 5 selections (with replacement).

How is distributed?
?
Determine the probability that I chose 3 red balls.
Q2

a
?
b

?
Exercise 1B
The random variable A student suggests using a binomial distribution
1 5 to model the following situations. Give a
Find description of the random variable, state any
assumptions that must be made and give possible
values for and .
?
A sample of 20 bolts is checked for defects from a
a large batch. The production process should
The random variable produce 1% of defective bolts.
3 Find assuming bolts being defective are independent
from each other. ?
? b Some traffic lights have three phases: stop 48% of
? the time, wait or get ready 4% of the time and go
? 48% of the time. Assuming that you only cross a
traffic light when it is in the go position, model
A balloon manufacturer claims that 95% the number of times that you have to wait or stop
4 of his balloons will not burst when blown on a journey passing through 6 sets of traffic
up. You have 20 balloons. lights.
assuming lights operate independently.
What is the probability that none of
them burst?
?
When Stephanie plays tennis with Tim on average
one in eight of her serves is an ‘ace’. How many
c
?
What is the probability exactly 2 burst? ‘aces’ does Stephanie serve in the next 30 serves
against Tim?
assuming serves are independent and
? probability of an ace is constant.
?
 Overview So Far

These are all based on the parameters we set.

Description Name Params Outcomes Prob Func
We count the number of
‘successes’ after a
number of trials, each
Binomial
Distribution
Number of trials

Probability of
? ?
with two outcomes success in each
(‘success’ and ‘failure’).
e.g. Number of heads
after 10 throws of an
trial
? ? ?
unfair coin.

Still to cover:
• The Cumulative Distribution Function
• Calculating and
Binomial Distribution

Lesson 3: E[X] and Var[X]

Mean and Variance
I want to know amongst 200 people the probability of a certain number being
left handed, where the probability any given person is left handed is 0.1.

gives a binomial distribution over the possible numbers of left-handed people.

Based on what you learnt in Year 8/9, how many people would you expect on
average to be left-handed?

i.e. We multiplied the number of trials and the probability of success to

work out the mean number of successes.
?
The variance is much harder to work out and we won’t give the proof here.

 If
Bro Tip: It’s perhaps easier to
remember variance as (where
is the probability of failure,
although these are given the
formula book)
Examples
A fair, 4-sided die has the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 on its faces. The die is rolled 20 times. The random
variable represents the number of 4s obtained.

Find the mean and variance of .

Q
Find ?

?
David believes that 35% of people in a certain town will vote for him in the next election and he
commissions a survey. Find the minimum number of people the survey should ask to have a
Q mean number of more than 100 voting for David.
?
So people should be asked.

An examiner is trying to design a multiple choice test. For students answering the test at
random, he requires that the mean score on the test should be 20 and standard deviation at
least 4. Find how many choices each question should have and the number of questions there
should be. Number of choices is fixed across questions and show be as small as possible.
Q
So there should be 5 choices per question.
?
or is unknown
The previous question was to establish an unknown . But if the parameter or is
unknown, we just have to use mathematical common sense (see part c).

S2 May 2013 Q7

𝑿 𝑩 (𝒏?,𝟎.𝟏 )

You won’t be able to do (d) until

Chapter 2.
or is unknown
S2 Jan 2013 Q3

12
𝑃 ( 𝑋=0) =( 1−𝑝
? ) =0.05
Exercise

Further Exercises
1 I play a game 10 times with a probability of winning. Given
that the probability I win every time is 10%, determine .

?
I play a different game 10 times with a probability of
winning. Given that , where is the number of times I win,
2 determine

?
If a third game has a 40% chance of winning, how many
times will I have to play it to have at least a 99% chance of
3
winning more than once.

?
 Summary
We use a Binomial distribution when we want the probability of some number of
‘successes’ out of independent trials, in which each trial has only two outcomes.

These are all based on the parameters we set.

Description Name Params Outcomes Prob Func
We count the number of Binomial Number of trials
‘successes’ after a Distribution
number of trials, each Probability of
with two outcomes success in each
(‘success’ and ‘failure’).
e.g. Number of heads
after 10 throws of an
trial
? ? ? ? ?
unfair coin.