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    Acting Under Uncertainty

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    Jackie Chan
    The document discusses how agents must act under uncertainty as they rarely have complete information about their environment. It provides examples of how uncertainty impacts planning and decision making. Specifically, it notes that agents may need to take chances if they cannot determine the outcome of different actions. The document also explains that developing plans is challenging under uncertainty and that agents may need to use imperfect theories or reasoning about probabilities to determine the best course of action despite lacking guarantees.

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    Acting Under Uncertainty

    Uploaded by

    Jackie Chan
    9 views6 pages
    The document discusses how agents must act under uncertainty as they rarely have complete information about their environment. It provides examples of how uncertainty impacts planning and decision making. Specifically, it notes that agents may need to take chances if they cannot determine the outcome of different actions. The document also explains that developing plans is challenging under uncertainty and that agents may need to use imperfect theories or reasoning about probabilities to determine the best course of action despite lacking guarantees.

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    Acting under uncertainty

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    The document discusses how agents must act under uncertainty as they rarely have complete information about their environment. It provides examples of how uncertainty impacts planning and decision making. Specifically, it notes that agents may need to take chances if they cannot determine the outcome of different actions. The document also explains that developing plans is challenging under uncertainty and that agents may need to use imperfect theories or reasoning about probabilities to determine the best course of action despite lacking guarantees.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    9 views6 pages

    Acting Under Uncertainty

    Uploaded by

    Jackie Chan
    The document discusses how agents must act under uncertainty as they rarely have complete information about their environment. It provides examples of how uncertainty impacts planning and decision making. Specifically, it notes that agents may need to take chances if they cannot determine the outcome of different actions. The document also explains that developing plans is challenging under uncertainty and that agents may need to use imperfect theories or reasoning about probabilities to determine the best course of action despite lacking guarantees.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    You are on page 1of 6

    ACTING UNDER

    UNCERTAINTY
    • When an agent knows enough facts about its environment, the logical
    approach enables it to derive plans that are guaranteed to work. This is a good
    thing. Unfortunately, agents almost never have access to the whole truth about
    their environment. Agents must, therefore, act under uncertainty.
    • A Wumpus agent often will find itself unable to discover which of two squares
    contains a pit. If those squares are enroute to the gold, then the agent might
    have to take a chance and enter one of the two squares.
    • The real world is far more complex than the wumpus world. For a logical
    agent, it might be impossible to construct a complete and correct description
    of how its actions will work.
     For example
     That the agent wants to drive someone to the airport to catch a flight and is
    considering a plan, Ago, that involves leaving home 90 minutes before the flight
    departs and driving at a reasonable speed. Even though the airport is only about 15
    miles away, the agent will not be able to conclude with certainty that "Plan Ago will
    get us to the airport in time.
     " Instead, it reaches the weaker conclusion "Plan Ago will get us to the airport in
    time, as long as my car doesn't break down or run out of gas, and I don't get into an
    accident, and there are no accidents on the bridge, and the plane doesn't leave early,
    and . . . ." None of these conditions can be deduced, so the plan's success cannot be
    inferred.
    • If a logical agent cannot conclude that any particular course of action achieves
    its goal, then it will be unable to act.
    • Conditional planning can overcome uncertainty to some extent, but only if the
    agent's sensing actions can obtain the required information and only if there are
    not too many different contingencies.
    • Another possible solution would be to endow the agent with a simple but
    incorrect theory of the world that does enable it to derive a plan; presumably,
    such plans will work most of the time, but problems arise when events contradict
    the agent's theory.
    • Moreover, handling the tradeoff between the accuracy and usefulness of the
    agent's theory seems itself to require reasoning about uncertainty.
    • We mean that out of all the plans that could be executed, Ago is expected to
    maximize the agent's performance measure, given the information it has about
    the environment. The performance measure includes getting to the airport in
    time for the flight, avoiding a long, unproductive wait at the airport, and
    avoiding speeding tickets along the way.
    • The information the agent has cannot guarantee any of these outcomes for Ago,
    but it can provide some degree of belief that they will be achieved. Other plans,
    such as Also, might increase the agent's belief that it will get to the airport on
    time, but also increase the likelihood of a long wait. The right thing to do-the
    rational decision--therefore depends on both the relative importance of various
    goals and the likelihood that, and degree to which, they will be achieved.

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