Plan 214 Report

TRAVEL DEMAND
FORECASTING
METHODS
ABELLA | GUTIERREZ
OUTLINE
Overview
Four-step Travel Demand Modelling
Disaggregate Modelling
Application in the Philippine Context
TRANSPORT SYSTEMS
Transportation systems address the two basic needs of its users:
ACCESSIBILITY MOBILITY
TRANSPORT SYSTEMS
Accessibility – access to a certain location/place such as:
GOVERNMENT
WORK MEDICAL FACILITIES
INSTITUTIONS
SHOPPING RECREATION SOCIALIZING

TRANSPORT SYSTEMS
MOBILITY – is the ability to move between location/place
TRIP – basic unit of travel behavior

FOUR STEP TRAVEL
DEMAND MODELLING
FOUR-STEP TRAVEL DEMAND
MODELLING
- Used to analyze travel demand and
estimating future traffic flow
- Provides a tool for traffic engineers and

planners to analyze travel demand and traffic
situation in a given study area
MODELLING
Prior to the application of the four-step model, it is always necessary to obtain as much
information on the socioeconomic indicators of the study area such as:
• Population
• Income distribution
• Car ownership
• Sex
• Marital Status
These socioeconomic variables may be forecasted within the planning horizon, depending
on the study period (short-term, medium-term, long-term)
MODELLING
Land Use and Transport System
Activity Characteristics
Trip Trip Modal Split Trip

Generation Distribution • What mode of Assignment
and • From which travel will be • Which route
Attraction zones are used? will these trips
• How many these trips take?
trips will be generated
generated in and to which
the planning zones are
period? these trips
bound?
Link Flows to evaluate Level of Service (LOS)

TRAFFIC ZONES
• Study Area is divided into Traffic
Zones. It is used to aggregate
trips into manageable chunks for
modeling purposes.
• Traffic Zones normally has

homogenous land use and socio-
economic characteristics. But with
the presence of mixed-use
zones, the study area is divided
by political or administrative
boundaries. It may be a single
barangay or clusters of Traffic Zones of Mabalacat City
City/Municipality.
TRAFFIC ZONES
• Internal Zones are zones located

within your study area.
• External Zones are zones

located outside the boundaries of
your study area but greatly affects
the traffic movements inside the
study area.
Traffic Zones of Mabalacat City

TRIP GENERATION AND ATTRACTION
• Prediction of the total number of trips
produced by and attracted by each Trips
traffic zone. Produced
• It is influenced by current economic

activity of the zone and the future
Zone 9
developments of the study area.
• The trip generation predicts the total

traffic flows into and out of each zones, Trips
Attracted
but it does not predict where the traffic
flows are going to or coming from.
Methods for estimating trip generation
Trips
and attraction: Produced
1. Growth Rate Method
2. Category Analysis Method
3. Regression Model
Zone 9
Trips
Attracted
Growth Rate Method
• Application of expansion factors
• Relates data collected in the land use survey to develop a trip generation
rate for major land uses
• Trip generation rate is applied to forecasted land area to get future trips and
thus involves land use forecasting

where:
where:
P = Population
Ti = Future Trips in Zone I
I = Average Household Income
Fi = Growth Factor depends on variables V = Average Vehicle Ownership
ti = Current trips in Zone I c and d = represents design and current year respectively
Category Analysis or Cross Classification Method
• Household as the fundamental unit of trip generation
• Number of trips from household is a function of 3 parameters:
 Household Income
 Car Ownership
 Family Structure
Zonal Trip Production: Zonal Trip Generation:

TRIP DISTRIBUTION
• Builds on what we know from Trip
Generation and Attraction Zone 7
• The objective of this procedure is to

T9,7
determine from which zones these trip T7,8 T7,9
generations are generated, and to which T8,7
zones this trip attractions are bound.
T9,8
• Trip distribution intends to predict zone-to- Zone 9
zone trip interchanges. The final product of
T8,9
trip distribution is the Origin-Destination Zone 8
(OD) matrix.
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
• OD Matrix is normally gathered through:
⮚ Household Surveys
⮚ Roadside Surveys
ORIGIN–DESTINATION MATRIX
Destination Zone
Total
1 2 3 4 ...
1 T11 T11 T11 T11 ...
T11 T11 T11 T11
Origin Zone
2 ...
3 T11 T11 T11 T11 ...
4 T11 T11 T11 T11 ...
... ... ... ... ... ...
... ... ... ... ... ...
Total
MODAL SPLIT
- makes use of the OD pairs identified in the previous steps
- Answers the question “which mode will be used?”
- Gives the relative shares of the mode of transportation used (either public or private)
EXAMPLE
ORIGIN DESTINATION PRIVATE MODE USERS PUBLIC TRANSPORT

MODE USERS
Point A Point B 173 405

MODAL SPLIT
- makes use of the OD pairs identified in the previous steps
- Answers the question “which mode will be used?”
- Gives the relative shares of the mode of transportation used (either public or private)
EXAMPLE
ORIGIN DESTINATION PRIVATE MODE USERS PUBLIC TRANSPORT

MODE USERS
Point A Point B 173 405

TRIP ASSIGNMENT
- Answers the question “what route will

they take?”
- Gives details on the volume of
passengers per link in the network
- Involves the determination of the
passenger volume per link by assigning
the OD volume per OD pair to the path
used from origin to destination
SUMMARY
DISAGGREGATE
MODELLING
DISAGGREGATE MODELLING
● Focuses on individual activities/desire to travel
● Based on the assumption that individuals seek to maximize their utility
APPLICATION:
TRANSPORTATION
PLANNING IN THE
PHILIPPINES
PUV MODERNIZATION PROGRAM
(PUVMP)
The PUVMP is the government’s
response to address both the
aggravating transport related problems
and the future transportation demand of
the country. The program aims to
fundamentally transform the public
transport system in the country making
both commuting and public
transportation operations more
dignified, humane, and on par with
LOCAL-LEVEL PUBLIC TRANSPORT PLANNING
APPROACH
(PARTICIPATORY PLANNING)
LGUs are in a better position to identify local public

transport service requirements being in-charge of
formulating the Comprehensive Land Use Plans, and
Traffic Management Plans
Make the routes more responsive to passenger

demand and determine the appropriate vehicle type
depending on road hierarchy and configuration
ROUTE RATIONALIZATION STUDY/PLAN
AREA: MUCEP (Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna,

and Rizal) routes and IRIP (Inter-regional, Inter-provincial)
routes
OBJECTIVE: determine the appropriate mode based on

passenger
demand and road hierarchy
BASIC POLICY: higher capacity PUVs assigned to high

demand routes
DETERMINING PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEMAND
BASED ON OD SURVEY AND MODAL SPLIT
LGUs are in a better position to identify local public

transport service requirements being in-charge of
formulating the Comprehensive Land Use Plans, and Traffic
Management Plans
Make the routes more responsive to passenger demand and

determine the appropriate vehicle type depending on road
hierarchy and configuration
DETERMINING PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEMAND BASED ON OD SURVEY AND MODAL SPLIT

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TRAVEL DEMAND

SHOPPING RECREATION SOCIALIZING

MOBILITY – is the ability to move between location/place

TRIP – basic unit of travel behavior

- Provides a tool for traffic engineers and

Trip Trip Modal Split Trip

Link Flows to evaluate Level of Service (LOS)

• Traffic Zones normally has

• Internal Zones are zones located

• External Zones are zones

Traffic Zones of Mabalacat City

• It is influenced by current economic

• The trip generation predicts the total

• The objective of this procedure is to

ORIGIN DESTINATION PRIVATE MODE USERS PUBLIC TRANSPORT

Point A Point B 173 405

ORIGIN DESTINATION PRIVATE MODE USERS PUBLIC TRANSPORT

Point A Point B 173 405

- Answers the question “what route will

LGUs are in a better position to identify local public

Make the routes more responsive to passenger

AREA: MUCEP (Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna,

OBJECTIVE: determine the appropriate mode based on

BASIC POLICY: higher capacity PUVs assigned to high

LGUs are in a better position to identify local public

Make the routes more responsive to passenger demand and

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