PROJECT 2

Distribution System and

Substation Design
(Design)
By:
John Brian Almazan
Rainier Angelo Borge
Sidro Michael dela Cruz
Christopher Gonzaga Jr.
Task 3 – Demand Forecasting

Objectives

• Forecast the Visayas demand for the next 15 years using the data in the table below.

• Determine the year-on-year growth rate in percent.

• Apply these growth rates in the demand used in Task 1 & 2

Task 3 – Demand Forecasting
Task 3 – Demand Forecasting
SUMMARY
OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.995055462
R Square 0.990135373
Adjusted R
Square 0.989430757
Standard Error 42.56878763
Observations 16

ANOVA
  df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2546387.576 2546387.576 1405.212303 1.91238E-15
Residual 14 25369.42353 1812.101681
Total 15 2571757      

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
- - - -
Intercept -172584.8676 4646.103192 37.14615464 2.16999E-15 -182549.7679 162619.9674 182549.7679 162619.9674
X Variable 1 86.54117647 2.308616648 37.48616149 1.91238E-15 81.58968622 91.49266672 81.58968622 91.49266672
Task 3 – Demand Forecasting
Year Actual (MW) Model (MW)

2005 967 930.1912

2006 997 1016.7324
2007 1102 1103.2735
2008 1176 1189.8147
2009 1241 1276.3559
2010 1431 1362.8971
2011 1481 1449.4382
2012 1551 1535.9794
2013 1572 1622.5206
2014 1636 1709.0618
2015 1768 1795.6029
2016 1893 1882.1441

𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙(𝑀𝑊)=𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡+( 𝑋𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒1𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡∗𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟 )
2017 1975 1968.6853
2018 2053 2055.2265
2019 2224 2141.7676
2020 2201 2228.3088
2021   2314.8500
2022   2401.3912
2023   2487.9324
2024   2574.4735
2025   2661.0147
2026   2747.5559
2027   2834.0971
2028   2920.6382
2029   3007.1794
2030   3093.7206
2031   3180.26176
2032   3266.80294
2033   3353.34412
2034   3439.88529
2035   3526.42647
 Task 3 – Demand Forecasting
Year Model (MW) Year on Year %Growth

2005 930.1912  
2006 1016.7324 9.3036%
2007 1103.2735 8.5117%
2008 1189.8147 7.8440%
2009 1276.3559 7.2735%
2010 1362.8971 6.7803%
2011 1449.4382 6.3498%
2012 1535.9794 5.9707%
2013 1622.5206 5.6343%
2014 1709.0618 5.3337%
2015 1795.6029 5.0637%
2016 1882.1441 4.8196%
2017 1968.6853 4.5980%

(𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑀𝑊 − 𝑃𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑀𝑊
)
2018 2055.2265 4.3959%

𝑌𝑂𝑌 % 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡h = ∗ 100 % 2019 2141.7676 4.2108%

𝑃𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑀𝑊 2020 2228.3088 4.0406%

2021 2314.8500 3.8837%
2022 2401.3912 3.7385%
2023 2487.9324 3.6038%
2024 2574.4735 3.4784%
2025 2661.0147 3.3615%
2026 2747.5559 3.2522%
2027 2834.0971 3.1498%
2028 2920.6382 3.0536%
2029 3007.1794 2.9631%
2030 3093.7206 2.8778%
2031 3180.26176 2.7973%
2032 3266.80294 2.7212%
2033 3353.34412 2.6491%
2034 3439.88529 2.5807%
2035 3526.42647 2.5158%
Task 3 – Demand Forecasting

Year Interval Total %Growth

2020-2025 (5 Years) 19.42%

2020-2030 (10 Years) 38.84%

2020-2035 (15 Years) 58.26%

Task 3 – Demand Forecasting

𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐷𝑎𝑡𝑎=𝐺𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 ∗𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 % 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡h +𝐺𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑

Given Load Data 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years

Load P (MW) Q (MW) P (MW) Q (MW) P (MW) Q (MW) P (MW) Q (MW)
1 150 75 179.1279 89.5639 208.2557 104.1279 237.3836 118.6918
2 100 50 119.4186 59.7093 138.8372 69.4186 158.2557 79.1279
3 200 100 238.8372 119.4186 277.6743 138.8372 316.5115 158.2557
4 150 100 179.1279 119.4186 208.2557 138.8372 237.3836 158.2557
5 50 25 59.7093 29.8546 69.4186 34.7093 79.1279 39.5639
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning

Objectives

• Evaluate the system five-, ten-, and 15-years from now. Use the demand determined in Task 3

• Repeat Task 2.

• Document the results.

Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Five (5) years from now

5 Years

P (MW) Q (MW)

179.1279 89.5639

119.4186 59.7093

238.8372 119.4186

179.1279 119.4186

59.7093 29.8546
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Corrected Model
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning

From Bus To Bus Ampacity Rating Ampacity (Base Case) Ampacity (Base Case Correction)
4 6 530 930.48 128.84
4 9 530 40.61 166.66
10 4 530 663.56 301.08
5 9 530 447.45 111.17
6 7 530 930.48 54.75
6 9 530 47.57 112.96
7 8 530 140.09 94.03
7 11 530 1731.87 445.41
8 10 530 93.52 209.05
11 5 530 NEW ADDED LINE 334.33
11 6 530 NEW ADDED LINE  462.33
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning

Percentage (Base Percentage (Base Case

From Bus To Bus Capacity (MVA)
Case) Correction)

1 9 125 96.30% 85.60%

2 10 375 66.00% 54.00%

3 11 625 110.40% 78.50%

8 12 200 33.70% 33.60%

Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Ten (10) years from now

5 Years

P (MW) Q (MW)

208.2557 104.1279

138.8372 69.4186

277.6743 138.8372

208.2557 138.8372

69.4186 34.7093
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Fifteen (15) Years from now
15 Years

P(MW) Q (MW)

237.3836 118.6918

158.2557
79.1279

316.5115 158.2557

237.3836 158.2557

79.1279 39.5639
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Corrected Model:
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning

Transformer Data Comparison:

Task 4 – Capacity Expansion Planning
Transmission Line Current Ratings Comparisons:
End of Presentation
Thank You!