SAMPLING

PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION

Prof. Lhars M. Barsabal

Why Learn Probability?
• Nothing in life is certain. In everything we
do, we gauge the chances of successful
outcomes, from business to medicine to
the weather
• A probability provides a quantitative
description of the chances or likelihoods
associated with various outcomes
• It provides a bridge between descriptive
and inferential statistics
In probability theory, it is assumed that the
distribution of the population is known and
such knowledge enables the probabilist to
make an inference about a particular
segment of the population, the sample.
Definition of Terms:

1. Experiment( Statistical Experiment)

- process of generating an observation;
generates raw data.
Classifications:
a) deterministic- outcome is completely
determined
Ex: Heating water at 100° C; it is the boiling
point.
b) non-deterministic- outcome can not be
completely determined except that it is
known to be one of a set of possible
outcomes.
Ex: Tossing a balanced die; outcome can be
1,2,3,4,5,6
Classification:

a) Discrete sample space

- contains a finite or countably infinite
number of sample points i.e., 1-1
correspondence with the set of positive
integers
b) Continuous sample space
-consists of a set of real numbers that
contains at least one interval
 Random variables can be discrete or
continuous

• Discrete random variables have a

countable number of outcomes
– Examples: Dead/alive, treatment/placebo,
dice, counts, etc.
• Continuous random variables have an
infinite continuum of possible values.
– Examples: blood pressure, weight, the
speed of a car, the real numbers from 1 to
6.
2. Sample Space
- set of points corresponding to all
distinctly different possible outcomes of an
experiment, each points corresponding to
a particular single outcome denoted by S
or Ώ.
3. Sample Point
-single point/ element of a sample
space, donated by ω.
4. Event
- any collection of sample points;
denoted by capital English letters.
 Classification:
a) Elementary/ simple
- event containing a single sample points
b) Compound/ composite
- an event containing 2 or more sample points
=For continuous sample space, an event is any
subset of S or Ω that can be formed by
performing countable set of operations on
intervals of S or Ω.
5. Event Space
- class of all events associated with a
given experiment
Probability Theory
 Probability functions

• A probability function maps the possible

values of x against their respective
probabilities of occurrence, p(x)
• p(x) is a number from 0 to 1.0.
• The area under a probability function is
always 1.
Discrete example: roll of a die

p(x)

1/6

x
1 2 3 4 5 6

 P(x)  1
all x
Probability mass function (pmf)

x p(x)
1 p(x=1)=1/6

2 p(x=2)=1/6

3 p(x=3)=1/6

4 p(x=4)=1/6

5 p(x=5)=1/6

6 p(x=6)=1/6
1.0
Cumulative distribution function (CDF)

1.0 P(x)
5/6
2/3
1/2
1/3
1/6
1 2 3 4 5 6 x
Cumulative distribution function

x P(x≤A)
1 P(x≤1)=1/6

2 P(x≤2)=2/6

3 P(x≤3)=3/6

4 P(x≤4)=4/6

5 P(x≤5)=5/6

6 P(x≤6)=6/6
 Examples

1. What’s the probability that you roll a 3 or less?

P(x≤3)=1/2

2. What’s the probability that you roll a 5 or higher?

P(x≥5) = 1 – P(x≤4) = 1-2/3 = 1/3
 Practice Problem

Which of the following are probability functions?

a. f(x)=.25 for x=9,10,11,12

b. f(x)= (3-x)/2 for x=1,2,3,4

c. f(x)= (x2+x+1)/25 for x=0,1,2,3

 Answer (a)

a. f(x)=.25 for x=9,10,11,12

x f(x) Yes, probability
function!
9 .25
10 .25
11 .25

12 .25
1.0
 Answer (b)

b. f(x)= (3-x)/2 for x=1,2,3,4

x f(x)
Though this sums to 1,
1 (3-1)/2=1.0 you can’t have a negative
probability; therefore, it’s
2 (3-2)/2=.5 not a probability
function.
3 (3-3)/2=0

4 (3-4)/2=-.5
 Answer (c)

c. f(x)= (x2+x+1)/25 for x=0,1,2,3

x f(x)
0 1/25
1 3/25
Doesn’t sum to 1. Thus,
2 7/25 it’s not a probability
function.
3 13/25
24/25
 Practice Problem:

• The number of ships to arrive at a harbor on any given day is a

random variable represented by x. The probability distribution
for x is:

x 10 11 12 13 14
P(x) .4 .2 .2 .1 .1

Find the probability that on a given day:

a. exactly 14 ships arrive p(x=14)= .1
b. At least 12 ships arrive p(x12)= (.2 + .1 +.1) = .4
c. At most 11 ships arrive p(x≤11)= (.4 +.2) = .6
 Practice Problem:

You are lecturing to a group of 1000 students. You

ask them to each randomly pick an integer between 1
and 10. Assuming, their picks are truly random:
• What’s your best guess for how many students picked
the number 9?
Since p(x=9) = 1/10, we’d expect about 1/10th of the 1000 students
to pick 9. 100 students.

• What percentage of the students would you expect

picked a number less than or equal to 6?
Since p(x≤ 6) = 1/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 =.6 60%
Important discrete distributions in
epidemiology…

• Binomial
– Yes/no outcomes (dead/alive,
treated/untreated, smoker/non-smoker,
sick/well, etc.)
• Poisson
– Counts (e.g., how many cases of disease
in a given area)
 Continuous case

 The probability function that accompanies a

continuous random variable is a continuous
mathematical function that integrates to 1.
 The probabilities associated with continuous
functions are just areas under the curve (integrals!).
 Probabilities are given for a range of values, rather
than a particular value (e.g., the probability of getting
NMAT score between 700 and 800 is 2%).
 Continuous case: “probability density
function” (pdf)

p(x)=e-x

The probability that x is any exact particular value (such as 1.9976) is 0;

we can only assign probabilities to possible ranges of x.
Example

p(x)

2 x

2
P(x  2)  1 - e  1 - .135  .865
 Practice Problem

4. Suppose that survival drops off rapidly in the year following diagnosis of a
certain type of advanced cancer. Suppose that the length of survival (or
time-to-death) is a random variable that approximately follows an
exponential distribution with parameter 2 (makes it a steeper drop off):

probability function : p ( x  T )  2e 2T

 


2 x 2 x
[note : 2e  e  0  1  1]
0
0

What’s the probability that a person who is diagnosed with this

illness survives a year?
 Answer

The probability of dying within 1 year can be calculated using the cumulative
distribution function:

Cumulative distribution function is:

T
2 x
P ( x  T )  e  1  e  2 (T )
0

The chance of surviving past 1 year is: P(x≥1) = 1 – P(x≤1)

1  (1  e 2(1) )  .135
 Expected Value and Variance

• All probability distributions are

characterized by an expected value and
a variance (standard deviation
squared).
For example, bell-curve (normal) distribution:

One standard
deviation from the
Mean ()
mean ()
 Fundamental Counting
Principle
Fundamental Counting Principle can be used
determine the number of possible outcomes
when there are two or more characteristics .

Fundamental Counting Principle states that

if an event has m possible outcomes and
another independent event has n possible
outcomes, then there are m* n possible
outcomes for the two events together.
 Fundamental Counting
Principle
For a college interview, Robert has to choose
what to wear from the following: 4 slacks, 3
shirts, 2 pairs of shoes and 5 ties. How many
possible outfits does he have to choose
from?

4*3*2*5 = 120 outfits

 Permutations

A Permutation is an arrangement
of items in a particular order.

Notice, ORDER MATTERS!

To find the number of Permutations of
n items, we can use the Fundamental
Counting Principle or factorial notation.
 Permutations
The number of ways to arrange
the letters ABC: ____ ____ ____

Number of choices for first blank? 3 ____ ____

Number of choices for second blank? 3 2 ___
Number of choices for third blank? 3 2 1

3*2*1 = 6 3! = 3*2*1 = 6
ABC ACB BAC BCA CAB CBA
 Permutations

To find the number of Permutations of

n items chosen r at a time, you can use
the formula
n!
n pr  ( n  r )! where 0  r  n .

5! 5!
5 p3    5 * 4 * 3  60
(5  3)! 2!
 Permutations
Practice:
A combination lock will open when the
right choice of three numbers (from 1
to 30, inclusive) is selected. How many
different lock combinations are possible
assuming no number is repeated?
 Permutations
Practice:
A combination lock will open when the
right choice of three numbers (from 1
to 30, inclusive) is selected. How many
different lock combinations are possible
assuming no number is repeated?

30! 30!
30 p3    30 * 29 * 28  24360
( 30  3)! 27!
 Fundamental Theorem of Counting
If an operation can be performed in many ways, and if for each
of these a second operation can be performed in n2 ways, then
the two operations can be performed together in n1n2 ways.

Note: this theorem can be extended to several operations, says m

operations. Hence, the total number of ways where we can
perform the m operations would be n1n2n3n4….nm

Remember: The keyword here is done simultaneously.

 Permutations
Practice:
From an organization of 24 members, a
President, Vice President, Secretary,
Treasurer and Honorary are to be
elected. In how many ways can the
offices be filled?
 Permutations
Practice:
From a club of 24 members, a President,
Vice President, Secretary, Treasurer
and Honorary are to be elected. In how
many ways can the offices be filled?

24! 24!
24 p5   
( 24  5)! 19!
24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20  5,100,480
Medical Example:
- in a medical study involving the thyroid
gland, patients are classified according to their
Uptake Test (depressed, normal, or elevated,
Thyroid Scan (normal, enlarged, small, with
modules) and Clinical Picture ( hyperthyroid,
hypothyroid, euthyroid). Find the number of
ways in which a patient can be classified .
Solution:
The first operation is to classify the
uptake test which would mean a patient may
be classified in n1 ways= 3. the second
operation (classifying the scan results) can
be done in n2 ways =4. the third operation
(about the clinical picture) can be done in n3
ways =3. hence by theorem of counting, the
total number of ways classifying the patients
simultaneously is (3) (4) (3) = 36.
Remember: if there are m simultaneous
operations, the total number of ways of
performing the m operations: n= n1n2n3n4…
n
If the m operation are not simultaneous, the
total number of ways of doing the operations
is n=n1+n2+n3+n4+…+nm
 Combinations
A Combination is an arrangement
of items in which order does not
matter.
ORDER DOES NOT MATTER!
Since the order does not matter in
combinations, there are fewer combinations
than permutations. The combinations are a
"subset" of the permutations.
 Combinations

To find the number of Combinations of

n items chosen r at a time, you can use
the formula
n!
C  where 0  r  n .
n r r! ( n  r )!
 Combinations
To find the number of Combinations of
n items chosen r at a time, you can use
the formula n!
C  where 0  r  n .
n r r! ( n  r )!
5! 5!
5 C3   
3! (5  3)! 3!2!
5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 5 * 4 20
   10
3 * 2 *1* 2 *1 2 *1 2
 Combinations
Practice:

To play a particular card game, each

player is dealt five cards from a
standard deck of 52 cards. How
many different hands are possible?
 Combinations
Practice: To play a particular card game, each
player is dealt five cards from a
standard deck of 52 cards. How
many different hands are possible?
52! 52!
52 C5   
5! (52  5)! 5!47!
52 * 51 * 50 * 49 * 48
 2,598,960
5* 4* 3* 2*1
 Combinations
Practice:

A student must answer 3 out of 5

essay questions on a test. In how
many different ways can the
student select the questions?
 Combinations
Practice: A student must answer 3 out of 5
essay questions on a test. In how
many different ways can the
student select the questions?

5! 5! 5 * 4
5 C3     10
3! (5  3)! 3!2! 2 * 1
 Combinations
Practice:
A basketball team consists of two
centers, five forwards, and four
guards. In how many ways can the
coach select a starting line up of
one center, two forwards, and two
guards?
 Combinations
Practice: A basketball team consists of two centers, five forwards,
and four guards. In how many ways can the coach select a
starting line up of one center, two forwards, and two
guards?
Center: Forwards: Guards:
2! 5! 5 * 4 4! 4 * 3
2 C1  25 2
C    10 4 C2   6
1!1! 2!3! 2 * 1 2!2! 2 * 1

2 C1 * 5 C 2 * 4 C 2

Thus, the number of ways to select the

starting line up is 2*10*6 = 120.
 Example:

- In how many ways can a student answer a test

consisting of
50 multiple choice test questions with 4 choices of which
only
one is correct?

- In how many ……..and all his answers are wrong?

Solution:
- The 1st operation is answering question no. 1 of
which there are 4 ways
- The 2nd operation is answering question no. 2 of
which there are 4 ways
- The 3rd operation is answering question no. 3 of
which there are 4 ways
- The 4th operation is answering question no. 4 of
which there are 4 ways
- And so on until the 50th question.
Therefore, the total number of ways of
answering 50 questions is 450
Solution:
• Definition:
n ! = n(n-1) (n-2) (n-3) …(3)(2)(1) 1!=1 0!=1

• Permutation = arrangement of all or part of a set of

objects.
- The number of permutation of n distinct objects= nPn =n!
- The number of permutation of n distinct objects taken r
at a time is nPr = n ! / (n-r) !
Example:

• If each base of a nucleic is either

adenine, guanine, cytosine or
thymine, how many different linear
sequences are possible in a
nucleic acid of 5 bases?
 Solution:

- For the 1st operation, no. of possibilities for the 1 st

base =4
- For the 2nd operation, no. of possibilities for the 2 nd
base =4
- For the 3rd operation, no. of possibilities for the 3 rd
base =4
- For the 4th operation, no. of possibilities for the 4 th
base =4
- For the 5th operation, no. of possibilities for the 5 th
base =4
Therefore the number of
possible linear sequences in
nucleic acid of 5 bases = 4 5
=1024.
Example:
5 couples are to be treated in a row. In how
many ways can we arrange them
a) Without restrictions?
b) If each couple is treated together?
c) If all males are treated together?
d) If all males are treated together as well as
females are treated together?
e) If all males are treated to the right of all
woman?
 Solution:
a) This means arrangement of 10 individuals who can be
treated anywhere. Thus, the number of ways to do this
is 10!
b) Treating each couple as a “single person”, we now have
an arrangement of 5 “persons”. The number of ways to
arrangement them is 5 !. Within each couple, they can
still be arranged; thus the number of ways arranging
them within each group ( each couple) is 2!. However,
we have 5 couples, therefore we have (2!) (2!) (2!) (2!)
(2!)
Therefore, the total number of
ways to perform the entire
operation is (5!) (2!) (2!) (2!) (2!)
(2!)= 3840
c) The males can be considered one
group (i.e., one person) and the five
remaining females can be treated
anywhere. Hence following the same
procedure above the total number of
ways is (6!) (5!) = 86,400
d) In this case, we are simply arranging “two
persons/group” with the five males considered as
one person/group and the 5 females as one person
or group. Hence, the number of ways of arranging
the 2 persons is 2!.
Note that within the group of females,
they can be arranged (5!). Likewise
with the group of males (5!).
Therefore the total number of ways to
do this is (2!) (5!) (5!) = 28,800
e) Similar to letter d except that the males are
now seated to the right of all the females.
Therefore, the 2 groups (group of males and
group of females) can only be arranged in one
way. Within the group of females (5!) and within
the group of males (5!).
Therefore the total number ways to perform
this operation is (1!) (5!) (5!)=14,500
Example:

• A nucleic acid of 10 bases is known to

have 5 Uracil, 2 Adenine, 2 Guanine, and 1
Cytosine.
How many hypothetical molecules are
there with the composition?
Solution:

There are 10 bases ( i.e., n=10) the 1st kind is the

group of Uracil (N1=5). The second kind is the
group of Adenine (N2=2). The 3rd kind is the
group of Guanine (N3=2). The 4th kind is the
group of Cytosine (N4=1).
Therefore, the total number of
hypothetical molecules are
{10!} ÷ {(5!) (2!) (2!) (1!)}= 7560
• The number of combinations of n
distinct objects taken r at a time is

n Cr= n! / r! (n-r)!

Note: Permutation= Arrangement

Combination=Selection
Example:

• From the group of 5 Pharmacists and 6

Nurses, how many committees of size 5 are
possible
a) Without restriction?
b) With 2 Pharmacist and 3 Nurses?
c) With 2 Pharmacists and 3 Nurses with a
particular Nurse on the committee?
Solution:

a) This entails selection of 5 persons from 11

persons. Hence we have

11 C5=11!/[(6!)(5!)]=462
b) Using the theorem of counting, the 1st operation is
the selection of 2 Pharmacists from 5
professionals. The number of ways of doing this is
11C5=5!/[(2!)(3!)]=10
The second operation is the selection of 3
nurses from 6. the number of ways is
16C3=6!/[(3!)(3!)]=20

Therefore, the total number f ways is

5C2 •6C3 =200
c) In this case, we have 3 operations: 1 st
operation is selection of 2 Pharmacist from 5;
2nd operation is selection of the particular nurse
from it (that means only one way to do that); 3 rd
operation is selection of additional 2 more
nurses from the remaining 5 professionals.
The total number of ways to do that is
n1•n2•n3=5C2•1C1•5C2
=10(1)(10) =100
Note:
Combinations order doesn’t matter

Permutations order matters.

Specify which is a permutation and
which is a combination

• Picking a team of 3 people from a group of

10.
• Picking a President ,VP and a waterboy
from a group of 10.
• Choosing 3 desserts from a menu of 10.
• Listing your 3 favorite desserts, in order,
from a menu of 10.
1.Combination: Picking a team of 3
people from a group of 10. C(10,3) =
10!/(7! · 3!) = 10 · 9 · 8 / (3 · 2 · 1) =
120.
2. Permutation: Picking a President,
VP and Waterboy from a group of
10.P(10,3) = 10!/7! = 10 · 9 · 8 = 720.
3. Combination: Choosing 3 desserts
from a menu of 10. C(10,3) = 120.
4. Permutation: Listing your 3
favorite desserts, in order, from a
menu of 10. P(10,3) = 720.
Try these examples

1. How many ways can we award a 1st, 2nd

and 3rd place prize among eight
contestants? (Gold / Silver / Bronze)
2. If a lock there are 10 numbers to choose
from (0,1,...9) and we choose 3 of them to
open it
3. How many different committees of 5
people can be chosen from 10 people?
In choosing a committee, order doesn't
matter; so we need the number of
combinations of 5 people chosen from 10
= 10C5
= 10!/(5!)(5!)
= (10 × 9 × 8 × 7 × 6)/(5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1)
= 30,240/120
= 252
Christian is the Chairman of a
committee. In how many ways can a
committee of 5 be chosen from 10
people given that Christian must be
one of them?
Jones is already chosen, so we need to
choose another 4 from 9.
In choosing a committee, order doesn't matter;
so we need the number of combinations of 4
people chosen from 9
= 9C4
= 9!/(4!)(5!)
= (9 × 8 × 7 × 6)/(4 × 3 × 2 × 1)
= 3,024/24
= 126
 Basic
Probability
Concepts

Prof. HILARIA M. BARSABAL

Prof of Biostatistics
Masters of Public Health
Cagayan State University
Introduction

People use the term probability many

times each day. For example, physician
says that a patient has a 50-50 chance
of surviving a certain operation. Another
physician may say that she is 95%
certain that a patient has a particular
disease
Definition

If an event can occur in N mutually exclusive and

equally likely ways, and if m of these
possess a trait, E, the probability of the
occurrence of E is read as
P(E) = m/N
Definition

Experiment ==> any planned process

of data collection. It consists of a
number of trials (replications) under
the same condition.
Definition
Sample space: collection of unique, non-overlapping possible
outcomes of a random circumstance.

Simple event: one outcome in the sample space; a possible

outcome of a random circumstance.
Event: a collection of one or more simple events in the sample
space; often written as
A, B, C, and so on

Male, Female
Definition
Complement ==> sometimes, we want to know
the probability that an event will not happen; an
event opposite to the event of interest is called
a complementary event.
If A is an event, its complement is The
probability of the complement is AC or A
Example: The complement of male event is the
female

P(A) + P(AC) = 1
Views of Probability:

1-Subjective:

It is an estimate that reflects a person’s opinion, or

best guess about whether an outcome will occur.

Important in medicine  form the basis of a

physician’s opinion (based on information gained in
the history and physical examination) about whether a
patient has a specific disease. Such estimate can be
changed with the results of diagnostic procedures.
2- Objective
Classical
• It is well known that the probability of flipping a fair
coin and getting a “tail” is 0.50.
• If a coin is flipped 10 times, is there a guarantee,
that exactly 5 tails will be observed
• If the coin is flipped 100 times? With 1000 flips?
• As the number of flips becomes larger, the
proportion of coin flips that result in tails
approaches 0.50
2- Objective
Classical
• It is well known that the probability of flipping a fair
coin and getting a “tail” is 0.50.
• If a coin is flipped 10 times, is there a guarantee,
that exactly 5 tails will be observed
• If the coin is flipped 100 times? With 1000 flips?
• As the number of flips becomes larger, the
proportion of coin flips that result in tails
approaches 0.50
Example: Probability of Male versus
Female Births
Long-run relative frequency of males born is about
0.512 (512 boys born per 1000 births)

Table provides results of simulation: the proportion is far

from .512 over the first few weeks but in the long run settles down
around .512.
Problem 1.

Blood Males Females Total

Group
O 20 20 40
A 17 18 35
B 8 7 15
AB 5 5 10
Total 50 50 100
Marginal probabilities
Named so because they appear single
outcome

Example: In problem 1, P(Male), P(Blood group

A)
P(Male) = number of males/total
number of subjects
= 50/100
= 0.5
Conditional probabilities
It is the probability of an event on condition that
certain criteria is satisfied

Example: If a subject was selected randomly and found to be

female what is the probability that she has a blood group O
Here the total possible outcomes constitute a subset
(females) of the total number of subjects.
This probability is termed probability of O given F
P(O\F) = 20/50
= 0.40
Joint probability
It is the probability of occurrence of two or more
events together

Example: Probability of being male &

belong to blood group AB
P(M and AB) = P(M∩AB)
= 5/100
= 0.05
∩ = intersection
Properties

The probability ranges between 0 and 1

If an outcome cannot occur, its probability is 0
If an outcome is sure, it has a probability of 1
The sum of probabilities of mutually exclusive
outcomes is equal to 1
P(M) + P(F) = 1
 Rules of probability

1- Multiplication rule

Independence and multiplication rule

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

P(A) P(B\A)

P(B)

A and B are independent

P(B\A) = P(B)
Example:
The joint probability of being male and having
blood type O
To know that two events are independent
compute the marginal and conditional
probabilities of one of them if they are equal the
two events are independent. If not equal the two
events are dependent
P(O) = 40/100 = 0.40
P(O\M) = 20/50 = 0.40
Then the two events are independent
P(O∩M) = P(O)P(M) = (40/100)(50/100)
= 0.20
 Rules of probability

1- Multiplication rule

Dependence and
the modified multiplication rule

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B\A)

Problem 2.

An outbreak of food poisoning occurs in a group of students

who attended a party

Ill Not Ill Total

Ate Barbecue 90 30 120

Did Not Eat Barbecue 20 60 80

Total 110 90 200

 Rules of probability

1- Multiplication rule

Dependence and
the modified multiplication rule

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B\A)

 P(B\A)
P(A)

P(B) P(B\A)

A and B are not independent

P(B\A) ≠ P(B)
Example:

The joint probability of being ill and eat

barbecue

P(Ill) = 110/200 = 0.55

P(Ill\Eat B) = 90/120 = 0.75
Then the two events are dependent
P(Ill∩Eat B) = P(Eat B)P(Ill\Eat B)
= (120/200)(90/120)
= 0.45
 A and B are mutually exclusive
The occurrence of one event precludes the
occurrence of the other

Addition
Rule
P(A) P(B)

P(A OR B) = P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

 A and B are non mutually exclusive
(Can occur together)
Example: Male and smoker

M
o
Ad difi
dit ed
Ru ion
le
P(A) P(B)

P(A ∩ B)

P(A OR B) = P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

Example:

Two events are not mutually exclusive (male

gender and blood type O).
P(M OR O) = P(M)+P(O) – P(M∩O)
= 0.50 + 0.40 – 0.20
= 0.70
Excercises

1. If tuberculous meningitis had a case fatality of 20%,

(a) Find the probability that this disease would be fatal in
two randomly selected patients (the two events are
independent)
(b) If two patients are selected randomly what is the
probability that at least one of them will die?
(a) P(first die and second die) = 20%  20% =
0.04
(b) P(first die or second die)
= P(first die) + P(second
die) - P(both die)
= 20% + 20% - 4%
= 36%
2. In a normally distributed population, the probability
that a subject’s blood cholesterol level will be lower
than 1 SD below the mean is 16% and the probability
of being blood cholesterol level higher than 2 SD
above the mean is 2.5%. What is the probability that a
randomly selected subject will have a blood
cholesterol level lower than 1 SD below the mean or
higher than 2 SD above the mean.
P(blood cholesterol level < 1 SD below the mean
or 2 SD above the mean) = 16% + 2.5%
= 18.5%
3. In a study of the optimum dose of lignocaine required to
reduce pain on injection of an intravenous agent used for
induction of anesthesia, four dosing groups were considered
(group A received no lignocaine, while groups B, C, and D
received 0.1, 0.2, and 0.4 mg/kg, respectively). The following
table shows the patients cross-classified by dose and pain
score:
Pain Group Total
score
A B C D

0 49 73 58 62 242
1 16 7 7 8 38
2 8 5 6 6 25
3 4 1 0 0 5
Total 77 86 71 76 310
Compute the following probabilities for a randomly
selected patient:
1.being of group D and experiencing
no pain
2.belonging to group B or having a
pain score of 2
3.having a pain score of 3 given that
he belongs to group A
4.belonging to group C
2:
Best Buy is having an IPOD giveaway. They
put all the IPOD Shuffles in a bag.
Customers may choose an IPOD without
looking at the color. Inside the bag are 4
orange, 5 blue, 6 green, and 5 pink IPODS.
If Maria chooses one IPOD at random, what
is the probability she will choose an orange
IPOD?
Probability of Simple Events

Guided Practice: Calculate the probability

of each independent event.

1) P(black) =
2) P(1) =
3) P(odd) =
4) P(prime) =
Real World Example:
A computer company manufactures 2,500
computers each day. An average of 100 of
these computers are returned with defects.
What is the probability that the computer you
purchased is not defective?
EXAMPLE Illustrating the Multiplication
Principle for Independent Events
The probability that a randomly selected
female aged 60 years old will survive the year
is 99.186% according to the National Vital
Statistics Report, Vol. 47, No. 28. What is the
probability that two randomly selected 60 year
old females will survive the year?
EXAMPLE Illustrating the Multiplication
Principle for Independent Events
The probability that a randomly selected
female aged 60 years old will survive the year
is 99.186% according to the National Vital
Statistics Report, Vol. 47, No. 28. What is the
probability that four randomly selected 60 year
old females will survive the year?
Suppose we have a box full of 500 golf balls. In
the box, there are 50 Titleist golf balls.
(a) Suppose two golf balls are selected
randomly without replacement. What is the
probability they are both Titleists?
(b) Suppose a golf ball is selected at random
and then replaced. A second golf ball is then
selected. What is the probability they are both
Titleists? NOTE: When sampling with
replacement, the events are independent.
EXAMPLE Computing “at least” Probabilities

The probability that a randomly selected

female aged 60 years old will survive the year
is 99.186% according to the National Vital
Statistics Report, Vol. 47, No. 28. What is the
probability that at least one of 500 randomly
selected 60 year old females will die during the
course of the year?