RIZAL TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF GRADUATE STUDIES

Cities of Mandaluyong and Pasig

Phases of a
Foresight
Process

Jeramay N. Servino
Master of Arts in Psychology
 Foresight
• a discipline related to futures studies that examines
emerging threats and opportunities and uses scenarios
to make sense of social change.

• looks at a time horizon of 5–15 years, with longer-

term foresight practices extending to 20 years.

• is simply the act of looking to and thinking about

the future.
 Foresight
• is a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-
gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building
process aimed at enabling present-day decisions and
mobilizing joint action (Turturean, 2011)

• is a systematic, participatory, prospective and policy-

oriented process which, with the support of
environmental/horizon scanning approaches, is aimed
to actively engage key stakeholders into a wide range
of activities anticipating, recommending and
transforming (ART) technological, economic,
environmental, political, social and ethical (TEEPSE)
futures (Popper, 2011) .
Phases of a
Foresight
Process
Foresight is a
SMART process
(Popper, 2011).
The Five Phases of Foresight and
Activities Involved in Each Phase
Phase 1: Pre-foresight
(Scoping)
• is the starting point of the process, where practitioners,
together with the sponsor: define the general and specific
objectives; assemble the project team; and design the
methodology.
Phase 1: Scoping
Aims and Objectives

Common aims
• shaping capacities and skills
• shaping strategies and priorities
• shaping paradigms and current visions
• shaping socio-economic and STI systems
• shaping behaviour, attitudes and lifestyles
• shaping knowledge-based products & services

Common features of objectives

• specific (clear)
• measurable (quantifiable outputs)
• achievable (attainable by the study)
• relevant (related to the aim)
• time-bounded (related to a deadline)
Phase 1 : Scoping
Rationales and Background

Understanding the background requires:

• recognizing key events, i.e.

technological, economic,
environmental, political, social,
ethical issues; and

• mapping ‘state-of-the-art’
knowledge from academic/grey
literature, databases, etc.) and
relevant initiatives(e.g. research
programs, agendas, networks, expert
groups, etc.)
Phase 1 : Scoping
Context and Domain Coverage
Common contexts:
• International foresight
• National foresight attached to a program
• National foresight detached from a program
• Sub-national foresight
• Corporate foresight
• Structural foresight

Common domain coverage:

Phase 1 : Scoping
Methodology and Work Plan
Key methodology features
• Creativity – Exploratory methods
• Interaction – Participatory methods
• Evidence–Explanatory methods
• Expertise – Advisory methods

11
Phase 1 : Scoping
Territorial Scope

Most common territorial scopes

• National
• Supra-national
• Sub-national
 Phase 1 : Scoping
Time Horizon(s)
Common time horizon(s)
• Up to 10 years
• 10-20years
• 20-30 years
• 30-50 years
• 50+ years

13
Phase 1 : Scoping
Funding and Duration
 Phase 2 : Recruitment
(Mobilizing/Participation)
• is represented as the second phase of Foresight.
However, some activities are simultaneously initiated
with the scoping phase, such as contract negotiations
with the sponsor or definition of the project team; while
others run throughout the life of the project (e.g.
engaging target groups).
Phase 2 : Mobilizing
Sponsors and Champions

Common sponsors:
• Government
• Research
• Business

Common champions:
• Government official
• Renown professor
• Influential entrepreneur
Phase 2 : Mobilizing
Research and Support Team

Common Activities of the Team

Research
• Principal investigator
• Senior researchers
• Research scientist

Technology development
• Web tools managers

Management and other support

• Project administration
• Travel support
• Events organization
• Logistics
Phase 2 : Mobilizing Key roles of methodology experts
Methodology and Domain Experts
• Capacity building and coaching
• Process design and validation
• Methodology implementation and
supervision

Common domain experts

• Natural sciences
• Engineering and technology
• Medical sciences
• Agricultural sciences
• Social sciences
• Humanities
 Phase 2 : Mobilizing
Common types of cooperation and Cooperation and Networking
networking
• between regions
• between countries
• between organizations

Analysis of foresight cooperation and networking

between countries in 1000+ cases:
Phase 2 : Mobilizing
Participation Scale

A broad participation could facilitate:

• access to a broader knowledge base;

• better understanding of different perspectives;
• greater awareness of knowledge sources;
• increased understanding of the scope and limitations of
Foresight activities;
• greater legitimacy of the work and results;
• improved capabilities to use and take forward shared
visions on possible and desired futures.
 Phase 2 : Mobilizing
Target Groups

Common target groups:

• Government agencies and departments
• Research and education organizations
• Firms and private organizations
• Non-State Actors,
• Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO)
• Media
• Civil society
• Trade unions
Phase 2 : Mobilizing
Public Relations and Marketing
Communication and Dissemination Tools
ONLINE
• Websites/blogs/web-discussions
• Emails/Electronic newsletters
• Web-videos/podcasts
• Tutorials/applications

OFFLINE
• Policy/research briefs
• Television/radio/press promotion
• Conferences/seminars/symposia
• Newsletters/flyers/leaflets/brochures
 Phase 3 : Anticipating
(Generation)
• involves generating the "formal outputs" of the process.
The anticipatory intelligence developed in this phase
often reflects different elements of the present situation
and future contingencies by combining outward-looking,
inward-looking, and forward-looking approaches.
 Phase 3 : Anticipating
Vision, Scenarios and Forecasts

Key features of Visions and Key Features of Forecasts

Scenarios • Qualitative
• Exploratory • Quantitative
• Normative • Semi-quantitative
Phase 3 : Anticipating
SWOT and Grand Challenges

Key features of SWOT Analysis

• Inward-looking
• Outward-looking
• Forward-looking

Key features of Grand Challenges

• Top-down
• Bottom-up
Phase 3 : Anticipating
TEEPSE Drivers and Mega/Trends

Key dimensions of TEEPSE analysis

• Technological
• Economic
• Environmental
• Political
• Social
• Ethical
• Spatial
Phase 3 : Anticipating
Wild Cards and Weak Signals Key Features of Wildcards:
• Nature-related
• Unplanned
• Planned

Key Features of Weak Signals:

• Interpretation of Uncertainty
• Importance uncertainty
• Implication uncertainty
Common Types of Models/Frameworks
Phase 3 : Anticipating
• Qualitative vs. Quantitative
Models and Frameworks
Key Features of Models/Frameworks
• Conceptual/Methodological/Analytical
Phase 3 : Anticipating
Pathways and Roadmaps
Common Types of Pathways/Roadmaps
• multi-layer and multi-aspect
• linked to critical issues
Phase 4 : Recommending
(Action)
• should be considered a critical phase of the process. Even
where recommendations are not explicitly stated in
'formal outputs' (e.g. reports), often they can be detected
implicitly in the form of, for example, success or
normative scenarios.
Common Types of Recommendations
• Policies and Actions
• Initiatives and Actors
• Appropriation and Dissemination
• Investments and Training
• Alliances and Synergies
• (Foresight and Horizon Scanning) Research

Nature of the Recommending Phase

• More or less exploratory
• More or less complex
 Phase 5 : Transforming
(Renewal)
• involves constant monitoring and evaluation in order to assess whether the
foresight process has helped to achieve its original objectives and how far results
are being acted on. One main challenge here is the development of success
indicators to assess foresight related impacts and transformations.
Phase 5 : Transforming
(Renewal)
Key Areas of Transformations
• Capacities and skills
• Priorities and strategies
• Paradigms and current visions
• Socio-economic and STI systems
• Behavior, attitudes and lifestyles
• Knowledge-based products and services
References:
Nugroho, Yanuar & Saritas, Ozcan. (2009, October). Incorporating network perspectives in foresight: A
methodological proposal. researchgate.net.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/242343662_Incorporating_network_per spectives_in
_foresight_A_methodological_proposal

Popper, Rafael. (2011). Futures. rafaelpopper.wordpress.com

https://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com/futures/

Turturean, Ciprian. (2011, January). Classifications of foresight. researchgate.net.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227654781_Classifications_of_foresigh t_methods