ENSO: Recent Evolution,

Current Status and Predictions

Update prepared by:

Climate Prediction Center /
22 April 2024
NCEP
Outline
Summary
Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
Pacific SST Outlook
U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
Summary
 Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch
El Niño conditions are observed.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the
central and east-central Pacific Ocean.
The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are weakening.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85%
chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60%
chance).*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
Recent Evolution of
Equatorial Pacific SST
Departures (oC)

From March-October 2023, positive sea

surface temperature (SST) anomalies in
the eastern Pacific Ocean expanded
and shifted westward.
In October and November 2023, SST
anomalies increased in the central and
east-central Pacific.
Since late December 2023, positive SST
anomalies have weakened across most
of the Pacific.
Recently, below-average SSTs emerged
in the far eastern Pacific.
Niño Region SST
Departures (oC) Recent
Evolution

The latest weekly

SST departures are:

Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.7ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC
SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last
Four Weeks
In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average across most of the Pacific
Ocean, with the largest anomalies in the central and east-central Pacific. Below-
average SSTs were evident in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

26
30
 Global SST Departures (oC) During the Last Four Weeks

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average across most of the Pacific Ocean
(except for the eastern Pacific), the Indian Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean.

26
30
30
Weekly SST Departures
during the Last Four
Weeks

During the last 4 weeks, above-average SSTs

weakened across most of the equatorial
Pacific Ocean.

Below-average SSTs have persisted in the

eastern Pacific Ocean.
Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Four
Weeks
During the last four weeks, negative SST anomaly changes were observed over most of the
east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
Upper-Ocean Conditions in
the Equatorial Pacific

The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m)

heat content is greatest prior to and during the
early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode
(compare top 2 panels), and least prior to and
during the early stages of a cold (La Niña)
episode.

The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least

(greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.

Recent values of the upper-ocean heat

anomalies (below average) and thermocline
slope index (slightly above average) reflect a
weakening El Niño.

The monthly thermocline slope index represents the

difference in anomalous depth of the 20ºC isotherm
between the western Pacific (160ºE-150ºW) and the
eastern Pacific (90º-140ºW).
 Central and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m)
Weekly Average Temperature Anomalies
Positive subsurface temperature anomalies persisted through mid-January 2024. Variability in the
anomalies was associated with several oceanic Kelvin waves. Subsurface temperature anomalies have
weakened since late November 2023. Since late January 2024, negative temperature anomalies have
gradually strengthened.
 Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial
Pacific
Over the last couple months, negative subsurface
temperature anomalies have strengthened across the
equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Most recent pentad analysis

Below-average temperatures reached the surface in

the eastern Pacific Ocean (near 130º-90ºW).
 Tropical OLR and Wind
Anomalies During the Last
30 Days
OLR was near average across most of the
equatorial Pacific, and slightly above average
(suppressed convection and precipitation) around
the Philippines and Malaysia.

Low-level (850-hPa) wind anomalies were

easterly in small regions over the western
tropical Pacific Ocean.

Upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies were

easterly over the eastern equatorial Pacific.
Intraseasonal Variability

Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related
to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface
conditions across the Pacific Ocean.

Related to this activity:

Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-
propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
 Weekly Heat Content
Evolution in the Equatorial
Pacific
Significant equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave activity
(dashed and dotted lines) has been present
throughout the period shown.

Through January 2024, above-average subsurface

temperatures persisted across most of the Pacific
Ocean.

From November 2023 through March 2024, below-

average temperatures strengthened in the western
Pacific Ocean and shifted into the eastern Pacific.

Since late February 2024, another upwelling

Kelvin wave has shifted eastward.

Equatorial oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating

warm and cold phases. The warm phase is
indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and
warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin
wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the
trailing portion.
 Low-level (850-hPa)
Zonal (east-west) Wind
Anomalies (m s-1)
At times, the Madden Julian-Oscillation
(MJO) has contributed to the eastward
propagation of low-level wind anomalies.
An eastward propagating pattern of
westerly and easterly wind anomalies was
evident starting in November 2023.

Westerly Wind Anomalies (orange/red shading)

Easterly Wind Anomalies (blue shading)
 Upper-level (200-hPa)
Velocity Potential
Anomalies
Since the beginning of the period, regions of
anomalous divergence (green shading) and
convergence (brown shading) were generally
propagating eastward.

From early December 2023 to mid-March

2024, anomalous divergence persisted over
the central Pacific.

Unfavorable for precipitation (brown shading)

Favorable for precipitation (green shading)
Note: Eastward propagation is not necessarily indicative of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
 Outgoing Longwave
Radiation (OLR) Anomalies

Through early March 2024, negative OLR

anomalies (more convection) persisted
over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean
Through December 2023, positive OLR
anomalies persisted around Indonesia.
From mid-December 2023 through March
2024, OLR anomalies shifted eastward
from the Indian Ocean/Indonesia to the
western Pacific/Date Line.
Since early April 2024, OLR was near
average across most of the equatorial
Pacific.

Drier-than-average Conditions (orange/red shading)

Wetter-than-average Conditions (blue shading)
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a
principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.

Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region.
Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses
(Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). The SST reconstruction methodology is
described in Huang et al., 2017, J. Climate, vol. 30, 8179-8205.)

It is one index that helps to place current events into a historical perspective.

Note: a different SST dataset is used for weekly SST monitoring (slides #4-9) and is using
OISSTv2.1 (Huang et al., 2021).
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,

these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping
3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST
departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These
anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
 ONI (ºC): Evolution
since 1950

The most recent ONI value

(January – March 2024) is 1.5ºC.

El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the
ONI computed using ERSST.v5
Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the
Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S,
120-170W)]. For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when
the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether
features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete
table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2

2013 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3

2014 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7

2015 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6

2016 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6

2017 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0

2018 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8

2019 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5

2020 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2

2021 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0

2022 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8

2023 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0

2024 1.8 1.5

 CPC Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 11 April 2024

A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with
the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).
IRI Pacific Niño 3.4
SST Model Outlook

The majority of models indicate a

transition to ENSO-neutral during
April-June 2024.

After a brief period of ENSO-

neutral conditions, most models
indicate a transition to La Niña
around July-September 2024.

Figure provided by the International Research

Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society
(updated 19 April 2024).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)
Issued: 22 April 2024

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) indicates El Niño may transition
to ENSO-neutral in May, followed by a transition to La Niña around June-August
2024.
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
During most of the period from late February
through mid-April, below-average heights and
temperatures persisted in the eastern North
Pacific Ocean and western contiguous U.S.

The pattern of heights and temperatures over

the contiguous U.S. has been quite variable since
late February. Recently, above-average heights
and temperatures have dominated the eastern
U.S.

1 of 3
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
During most of the period from late February
through mid-April, below-average heights and
temperatures persisted in the eastern North
Pacific Ocean and western contiguous U.S.

The pattern of heights and temperatures over

the contiguous U.S. has been quite variable since
late February. Recently, above-average heights
and temperatures have dominated the eastern
U.S.

2 of 3
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
During most of the period from late February
through mid-April, below-average heights and
temperatures persisted in the eastern North
Pacific Ocean and western contiguous U.S.

The pattern of heights and temperatures over

the contiguous U.S. has been quite variable since
late February. Recently, above-average heights
and temperatures have dominated the eastern
U.S.

3 of 3
U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 30 Days

End Date: 14 April 2024

Percent of Average Temperature Departures (degree C)

Precipitation

1 of 2
U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 90 Days

End Date: 14 April 2024

Percent of Average Temperature Departures (degree C)

Precipitation

2 of 2
U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
May – July 2024

The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and,
when appropriate, ENSO.

Precipitatio Temperatur
n e
 Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch
El Niño conditions are observed.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the
central and east-central Pacific Ocean.
The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are weakening.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85%
chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60%
chance).*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.