Intro to Statistics

BUS_2D: Monday 8.30 – 11.00

BRD_2A: Monday 13.00 – 15.30

Week 10
albertus.bramantyo@lecturer.pr
asetiyamulya.ac.id

1
 Sampling Introduction
 An element is the entity on which data are collected.
 A population is a collection of all the elements of interest.
 A sample is a subset of the population.
 The sampled population is the population from which the sample is
drawn.
 A frame is a list of the elements that the sample will be selected from.
 The reason we select a sample is to collect data to answer a research
question about a population.
 The sample results provide only estimates of the values of the population
characteristics.
 The reason is simply that the sample contains only a portion of the
population.
 With proper sampling methods, the sample results can provide “good”
estimates of the population characteristics.

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 Sampling from a Finite Population
 Finite populations are often defined by lists such as:
 Organization membership roster
 Credit card account numbers
 Inventory product numbers
 A simple random sample of size n from a finite population of size N is a
sample selected such that each possible sample of size n has the same
probability of being selected.
 Replacing each sampled element before selecting subsequent elements is
called sampling with replacement. An element can appear in the sample
more than once.
 Sampling without replacement is the procedure used most often.
 In large sampling projects, computer-generated random numbers are often
used to automate the sample selection process.

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 Sampling from an Infinite Population
 Sometimes we want to select a sample, but find that it is not possible to
obtain a list of all elements in the population.
 As a result, we cannot construct a frame for the population.
 Hence we cannot use the random number selection procedure.
 Most often this situation occurs in the case of infinite population.
 Populations are often generated by an ongoing process where there is no
upper limit on the number of units that can be generated.
 Some examples of on-going processes with infinite populations are:
 parts being manufactured on a production line
 transactions occurring at a bank
 telephone calls arriving at a technical help desk
 customers entering a store

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Sampling Methods

 Simple Random Sampling

 Systematic Sampling
 Stratified Random Sampling
 Cluster Sampling
 Convenience Sampling
 Judgment Sampling

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Simple Random Sampling
 Each element selected comes from the population of
interest
 Each element has the same probability of being selected.
 The most difficult sampling for infinite population

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 Systematic Sampling
 If a sample size of n is desired from a population containing N elements,
we might sample one element for every N/n elements in the population.
 We randomly select one of the first N/n elements from the population
list.
 We then select every N/nth element that follows in the population list.
 This method has the properties of a simple random sample, especially if
the list of the population elements is a random ordering.
 Advantage: The sample usually will be easier to identify than it would be
if simple random sampling were used.
 Example: Selecting every 100th listing in a telephone book after the first
randomly selected listing.

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 Stratified Random Sampling
 The population is first divided into groups of elements called strata.
 Each element in the population belongs to one and only one stratum.
 Best results are obtained when the elements within each stratum are as
much alike as possible (i.e. a homogeneous group).
 A simple random sample is taken from each stratum.
 Formulas are available for combining the stratum sample results into one
population parameter estimate.
 Advantage: If strata are homogeneous, this method provides results that is
as “precise” as simple random sampling but with a smaller total sample size.
 Example: The basis for forming the strata might be department, location,
age, industry type, and so on.

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 Stratified Random Sampling

Stratified Random Sampling: A population is first divided into

subgroups, called strata, and a sample is selected from each
stratum. Useful when a population can be clearly divided in groups
based on some characteristics

Suppose we want to study the advertising

expenditures for the 352 largest companies
in the United States to determine whether
firms with high returns on equity (a
measure of profitability) spent more of
each sales dollar on advertising than firms
with a low return or deficit.

To make sure that the sample is a fair

representation of the 352 companies, the
companies are grouped on percent return
on equity and a sample proportional to the
relative size of the group is randomly
selected.

8-9
 Cluster Sampling
 The population is first divided into separate groups of elements called
clusters.
 Ideally, each cluster is a representative small-scale version of the
population (i.e. heterogeneous group).
 A simple random sample of the clusters is then taken.
 All elements within each sampled (chosen) cluster form the sample.
 Example: A primary application is area sampling, where clusters are city
blocks or other well-defined areas.
 Advantage: The close proximity of elements can be cost effective (i.e.
many sample observations can be obtained in a short time).
 Disadvantage: This method generally requires a larger total sample size
than simple or stratified random sampling.

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 Cluster Sampling
Cluster Sampling: A population is divided into clusters using
naturally occurring geographic or other boundaries. Then, clusters
are randomly selected and a sample is collected by randomly
selecting from each cluster.

Suppose you want to determine the views of

residents in Oregon about state and federal
environmental protection policies.

Cluster sampling can be used by subdividing

the state into small units—either counties or
regions, select at random say 4 regions, then
take samples of the residents in each of these
regions and interview them. (Note that this is
a combination of cluster sampling and simple
random sampling.)

8-11
 Convenience Sampling
 It is a nonprobability sampling technique. Items are included in the
sample without known probabilities of being selected.
 The sample is identified primarily by convenience.
 Example: A professor conducting research might use student volunteers
to constitute a sample.
 Advantage: Sample selection and data collection are relatively easy.
 Disadvantage: It is impossible to determine how representative of the
population the sample is.

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 Judgment Sampling
 The person most knowledgeable on the subject of the study selects
elements of the population that he or she feels are most representative of
the population.
 It is a nonprobability sampling technique.
 Example: A reporter might sample three or four senators, judging them as
reflecting the general opinion of the senate.
 Advantage: It is a relatively easy way of selecting a sample.
 Disadvantage: The quality of the sample results depends on the judgment
of the person selecting the sample.

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 Sampling Error
The sampling error is the difference between a sample
statistic and its corresponding population parameter.
Examples:

X 
s 
s 
2 2

p 

8-14
 Sampling Distribution of
 The sampling distribution of is the probability distribution of all
possible values of the sample mean .
 Expected Value of is

 When the expected value of the point estimator equals the population
parameter, we say the point estimator is unbiased.
 The standard deviation of or the standard error of the mean.

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CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM: In selecting random samples of size n from a
population, the sampling distribution of the sample mean can be
approximated by a normal distribution as the sample size becomes large.

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Using the Sampling
Distribution of the Sample Mean

 If a population follows the normal distribution, the sampling

distribution of the sample mean will also follow the normal
distribution.
 If the shape is known to be non-normal, but the sample contains at
least 30 observations, the central limit theorem guarantees the
sampling distribution of the mean follows a normal distribution.
 To determine the probability a sample mean falls within a
particular region, use:

X 
z
 n
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 Sampling Distribution of the Sample Means -
Example

Tartus Industries has seven production employees (considered the

population). The hourly earnings of each employee are given in
the table below.

1. What is the population mean?

Employee Hourly earnings
Joe $ 7.00
2. What is the sampling distribution
Sam $ 7.00 of the sample mean for samples
Sue $ 8.00 of size 4?
Bob $ 8.00 3. What is the mean of the
Jan $ 8.00 sampling distribution?
Art $ 9.00 4. What observations can be made
Ted $ 9.00 about the population and the
sampling distribution?

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Sampling Distribution of the Sample Means
- Example

1. The population mean is $8.00, found by:

  x
 (7  7  8  8  8  9  9) / 7  8.0
N

2. To arrive at the sampling distribution of the sample

mean, we need to select all possible samples of 4
without replacement from the population, then compute
the mean of each sample. There are 35 possible samples.

N! 7!
N Cn    35
n!( N  n)! 4!(7  4)!

8-19
Sample Employees Mean
1 Joe,Sam,Sue&Bob $ 7.50
2 Joe,Sam,Sue&Jan $ 7.50
3 Joe,Sam,Sue&Art $ 7.75
4 Joe,Sam,Sue&Ted $ 7.75
5 Joe,Sam,Bob&Jan $ 7.50
6 Joe,Sam,Bob&Art $ 7.75
7 Joe,Sam,Bob&Ted $ 7.75
8 Joe,Sam,Jan&Art $ 7.75
9 Joe,Sam,Jan&Ted $ 7.75
10 Joe,Sam,Art&Ted $ 8.00
11 Joe,Sue,Bob&Jan $ 7.75
12 Joe,Sue,Bob&Art $ 8.00
13 Joe,Sue,Bob&Ted $ 8.00
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15
Joe,Sue,Jan&Art
Joe,Sue,Jan&Ted
$ 8.00
$ 8.00
x
16 Joe,Sue,Art&Ted $ 8.25
17 Joe,Bob,Jan&Art $ 8.00
18 Joe,Bob,Jan&Ted $ 8.00
19 Joe,Bob,Art&Ted $ 8.25
20 Joe,Jan,Art&Ted $ 8.25
21 Sam,Sue,Bob&Jan $ 7.75
22 Sam,Sue,Bob&Art $ 8.00
23 Sam,Sue,Bob&Ted $ 8.00
24 Sam,Sue,Jan&Art $ 8.00
25 Sam,Sue,Jan&Ted $ 8.00
26 Sam,Sue,Art&Ted $ 8.25
27 Sam,Bob,Jan&Art $ 8.00
28 Sam,Bob,Jan&Ted $ 8.00
29 Sam,Bob,Art&Ted $ 8.25
30 Sam,Jan,Art&Ted $ 8.25
31 Sue,Bob,Jan&Art $ 8.25
32 Sue,Bob,Jan&Ted $ 8.25
33
34
Sue,Bob,Art&Ted
Sue,Jan,Art&Ted
$ 8.50
$ 8.50
x
35 Bob,Jan,Art&Ted $ 8.50

𝜇=𝜇 𝑥 𝜎 >𝜎 𝑥
8-20
 Example:
The Quality Assurance Department for Cola, Inc., maintains
records regarding the amount of cola in its Jumbo bottle. The actual
amount of cola in each bottle is critical, but varies a small amount from one
bottle to the next. Cola, Inc., does not wish to underfill the bottles. On the
other hand, it cannot overfill each bottle. Its records indicate that the
amount of cola follows the normal probability distribution. The mean
amount per bottle is 31.2 ounces and the population standard deviation is
0.4 ounces.
At 8 A.M. today the quality technician randomly selected 16
bottles from the filling line. The mean amount of cola contained in the
bottles is 31.38 ounces.
Is this an unlikely result? Is it likely the process is putting too much
soda in the bottles? To put it another way, is the sampling error of 0.18
ounces unusual?

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 X   31.38  31.20
z   1.80
 n $0.4 16
What do we conclude?
It is unlikely, less than a 4 percent chance, we could select a sample
of 16 observations from a normal population with a mean of 31.2
ounces and a population standard deviation of 0.4 ounces and find
the sample mean equal to or greater than 31.38 ounces.
We conclude the process is putting too much cola in the bottles.
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 1 – 0.9641
0.9641 = 0.0359

1.80

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