THE DOW THEORY

An Introduction

The Dow Theory

Charles Dow and Edward Jones were newspaper reporters working in New York decided to form their own newspaper, and did so in 1882. They formed Dow, Jones and Company with a third silent partner. They specialized in the delivery of accurate financial news. It was a news service and when a story broke, Dow, Jones and Company would write them up and sent them out to their customers. The Wall Street Journal was started in 1899.

The Dow Theory



What has come to be spoken of as the Dow Theory is in effect the combined market wisdom of Charles Dow and William Peter Hamilton. Charles Dow began compiling stock market averages in 1884 -before the WSJ even existed. They first published a two page paper called the Customers Afternoon Letter. The February 20, 1885 index was compiled from 14 companies 12 railroads and 2 industrials. Dow's only expression of his theory of the market was in a number of editorials written in the period 1900 -1902. Charles Dow died in 1902.

The Dow Theory



William Hamilton joined the WSJ in 1899 and worked closely with Dow. Nine years later he took over as editor of the editorial page. Hamilton developed what he called implications of Dow's Theory and published these from time to time in the Wall Street Journal as editorials entitled The Price Movement. Hamilton also published a book in 1922 The Stock Market Barometer. Applying the theory between 1900 and 1921 he forecasted the Panic of 1907, the Sluggish market preceding World War I and a bear market in 1917 in all six major bull and bear markets. His most famous was the October 21, 1929 Barrons editorial titled A Turn in the Tide. Hamilton was the editor of the Wall Street Journal for twenty years ending with his death in December 1929.

The Dow Theory

The main outline for this presentation is from a book by Robert Rhea, published in 1932 called The Dow Theory. Rheas father was the owner of a Mississippi river boat line. His father one day gave his son Hamiltons Wall Street Journal editorials and told him to master them or get spanked. The young Rhea eagerly complied. Rhea ran into some bad luck. He contracted tuberculosis, but recovered to enter the Air Corps in 1917, only to have his plane crash and leave him an invalid for life because of a punctured lung.

The Dow Theory

Rheas life was just beginning. He based himself in Colorado Springs and researched economic trends as his only form of recreation. By the late 1920s Rhea was a highly regarded Dowist. When Hamilton died a few weeks after predicting the 1929 Crash, Rhea replaced his as the foremost Dow theorist. Barrons published some of his notebooks that year but people wanted more. He later published his book The Dow Theory in 1932. He died in 1939.

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MANIPULATION:Manipulation is possible in the day to day movement of the averages, and secondary reactions are subject to such an influence to a more limited degree, but the primary trend can never be manipulated.

The Dow Theory

THE AVERAGES DISCOUNT EVERYTHING: The fluctuations of the daily closing price of the Dow-Jones rail and industrial averages afford a composite index of all the hopes, disappointments, and knowledge of everyone who knows anything of financial matters, and for that reason the effects of coming events (excluding acts of God) are always properly anticipated in their movement. The averages quickly appraise such calamities as fire and earthquakes.


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THE THEORY IS NOT INFALLIBLE:The Dow theory is not and infallible system for beating the market. Its successful use as an aid in speculation requires serious study, and the summing up of evidence must be impartial. The wish must never be allowed to father the thought.

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DOW'S THREE MOVEMENTS:There are three movements of the averages, all of which, may be in progress at one and the same time. The first, and the most important , is the primary trend: the broad upward or downward movements know as bull or bear markets, which may be of several years duration. (cont.)

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DOW'S THREE MOVEMENTS:- (cont,) The secondary, and the most deceptive movement, is the secondary reaction: an important decline in a primary bull market or a rally in a primary bear market. These reactions usually last from three week to as many months. (cont.)

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DOW'S THREE MOVEMENTS:-(cont.) The third, and usually unimportant, movement is the daily fluctuation.

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PRIMARY MOVEMENTS:The primary movement is the broad basic trend generally known as a bull or bear market extending over periods which have varied from less than a year to several years. The correct determination of the direction of this movement is the most important factor in successful speculation. There is no known method of forecasting the extent or duration of a primary movement.

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PRIMARY BEAR MARKETS:A primary bear market is the long downward movement interrupted by important rallies. It is caused by various economic ills and does not terminate until stock prices have thoroughly discounted the worst that is apt to occur. There are three principal phases of a bear market: The first represents the abandonment of hopes upon which stocks were purchased at inflated prices. (cont.)

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PRIMARY BEAR MARKETS (cont) The second reflects selling due to decreased business and earnings, and the Third is caused by distress selling of sound securities, regardless of their value, by those who must find cash market for at least a portion of their assets.

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PRIMARY BULL MARKET:A primary bull market is a broad upward movement, interrupted by secondary reactions, and averaging longer than two years. During this time, stock prices advance because of a demand created by both investment and speculative buying caused by improving business conditions and increased speculative activity. (cont)

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PRIMARY BULL MARKETS:- (cont,) There are three phases of a bull period: The first is represented by reviving confidence in the future of business; The second is the response of stock prices to the known improvement in corporation earnings The third is the period when speculation is rampant and inflation apparent a period when stocks are advanced on hopes and expectations.

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SECONDARY REACTIONS:For the purpose of this discussion, a secondary reaction is considered to be and important decline in a bull market or advance in a bear market, usually lasting form three weeks to as many months, during which intervals the price movement, generally retraces form 33 percent to 66 percent of the primary price change since the termination of the last preceding secondary reaction. (cont)

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SECONDARY REACTIONS:- (cont,) These reactions are frequently erroneously assumed to represent a change of primary trend, because obviously the first stage of a bull market must always coincide with a movement which might have proved to have been merely a secondary reaction in a bear market, the contra being true after the peak has been attained in a bull market.

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DAILY FLUCTUATIONS:Inferences drawn form one day's movement of the averages are almost certain to be misleading and are of but little values except when 'lines are being formed. The day to day movement must be recorded and studied, however, because a series of charted daily movements always eventually develops into a pattern easily recognized as having a forecasting value.

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BOTH AVERAGES MUST CONFIRM:The movements of both the railroad and industrial stock averages should always be considered together, The movement of one price average must be confirmed by the other before reliable inferences may be drawn. Conclusions based upon the movement of one average, unconfirmed by the other, are almost certain to prove misleading.

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DETERMINING THE TREND:Successive rallies penetrating preceding high points, with ensuing declines terminating above preceding low points, offer a bullish indication. Conversely, failure of the rallies to penetrate previous high points, with ensuing declines carrying below former low points, is bearish. Inferences so drawn are useful in appraising secondary reactions and are of major importance in forecasting the resumption, continuation, or change of the primary trend. (cont.)

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DETERMINING THE TREND:- (cont.) For the purpose of discussion, a rally of a decline is defined as one or more daily movements resulting in a net reversal of direction exceeding three per cent of the price of either average. Such movements have but little authority unless confirmed in direction by both averages, but the confirmation need not occur on the same day.

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LINES:A line is a price movement extending two to three weeks or longer, during which period the price variation of both averages move within a range of approximately five per cent. Such a movement indicates either accumulation or distribution. Simultaneous advances above the limits of the line indicate accumulation and predict higher prices: conversely, simultaneous declines below the line imply distribution and lower pries are sure to follow. (cont.)

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LINES:-

(cont.)

Conclusions drawn from the movement of one average, not confirmed by the other, generally prove to be incorrect.

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THE RELATION OF VOLUME TO PRICE MOVEMENTS:A market which has been overbought becomes dull on rallies and develops activity on declines: conversely, when a market is oversold, the tendency is to become dull on declines and active on rallies. Bull markets terminate in a period of excessive activity and begin with comparatively light transactions.

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DOUBLE TOPS AND DOUBLE BOTTOMS:Double tops and double bottoms are of but little value in forecasting the price movement and have proved to be deceptive more often than not.

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INDIVIDUAL STOCKS:All active and well distributed stocks of great American corporations generally rally and decline with the averages, but any individual stock may reflect conditions not applicable to the average price of any diversified list of stocks.