Chapter One

Introduction to

simulation and modeling

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 What is simulation
 Simulation is the imitation/artificial of the operation
of a real-world process or system. It involves :-
 The generation of artificial history of the system.
 The observation of artificial history to draw inferences on
the operating characteristics of the system.
 Simulation is used to describe and analyze the
behavior of a system.
 Ask "what if" questions about the real system, and
aid in the design of real systems.
 Simulation is the representation or replication as a
model of certain aspects of a real or planned
cybernetic/virtual system. 2
 When Simulation is Appropriate Tool
 Simulation enables to study the internal interactions of a complex

system, or of a subsystem within a complex system.

 The knowledge gained in designing a simulation model can have

a great value towards suggesting the improvement of the

system.
 Simulation can be used to experiment new designs or polices

prior to implementation, so as to prepare for what may happen.

 By changing simulation inputs and observing the resulting

outputs, valuable insight may be obtained, into which variables

are most important. 3

 Cont…
 Simulation model designed for training, allow
learning without the cost and disruption of on-
the-job learning.
 Animation shows a system in simulated
operation, so that the plan can be visualized.
 Simulation can be used as a pedagogical
educational/tutorial device to reinforce
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 When Simulation is not appropriate

i. Simulation should not be used when the

problem can be solved using common sense.
ii. Simulation should not be used, if it is easier
to perform direct experiments.
iii. Simulation should not be used, if the cost
exceeds/surpasses savings.
iv. Simulation should not be performed, if the
resources or time are not available.
v. If no data is available, not even estimates,
simulation is not advised.
vi. If there is not enough time or the people are
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 Advantage of Simulation

Simulation can be used to study system in the design stage.

New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation

systems can be tested without committing resources for
their acquisition.

Hypotheses about how or why certain phenomena occur can

be tested for feasibility.

A simulation study can help in understanding how the

system operates.

“what-if” questions can be answered.

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 Disadvantages of Simulation
i. Model building requires special training.
ii. Simulation results may be difficult to interpret.
iii. Simulation modeling and analysis can be time
consuming and expensive.

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 Applications of Simulation Systems

i. Manufacturing Industry:- To predict the performance of

production line in product manufacturing.
ii. Construction Engineering:- Construction of a dam.
iii. Military Applications:-Modeling military requirements for
war fighting operations.
iv. Transportation industry :- Simulation of pilot training in
airplane flight, traffic light design and detecting traffic pattern.
v. Business Process:-Modeling of how business operation are
performed .
vi. Human Systems:-Modeling human performance in complex
systems. 8
 WHAT IS A System

A system is defined as an aggregation/combination or assemblage of

objects joined in some regular interaction or interdependency.
Components OF a System

 Entity: An object of interest in the system : e.g. Customer in a bank .

 Attribute: The properties of an entity : e.g. Balance in a saving account.
 Activity: A time period of specified length. e.g. making a deposit,
withdrawal a cash.
 State of the system : A collection of variables that describe the system in
any time.

e.g. status of machine (busy, idle, down,…)

 Event: An instantaneous occurrence that might change the state of the
system:
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 TYPES of SYSTEM
 Endogenous System  Describe activities and events occurring within a
system.

Ex: Drawing cash in a bank.

 Exogenous System  Describe activities and events in the environment that
affect the system. Ex:- Arrival of customers .
 Closed System A system for which there is no exogenous activity and event
is said to be closed system. Ex: Water in an insulated/isolated flask/bottle.
 Open system  A system for which there is exogenous activity and event is
said to be open system. Ex: Banking system.
 Discrete Systems State variables changing at a separated points of time.
 Continuous Systems  State variables change continuously as a function of
time. 10
 Model OF A SYSTEM
To study a system sometimes it is possible to
experiment with the system itself.
But, it is not feasible to experiment with a system,
while it is in hypothetical/imaginary form.
The objective of many system studies is, to
predict how a system will perform before it is built.
For the purpose of most studies, it is not
necessary to consider all the details of a system,
so, a model is not a substitute for a system, it is
also a simplification of the system.
A model is defined as a representation of a system
for the purpose of studying the system, there is no
unique model of a system. 11
 Type of simulation Models
 Mathematical Model:- Mathematical model uses symbolic
notation and mathematical equations to represent a system.
 Static Model :- Represent a system at a particular point of
time.
 Dynamic Model:- Represent system as they change over
time.
Ex: The simulation of bank from 9:00 A.M to 4:00 P.M.
 Deterministic Model:- has no random variables, they
have a known set of inputs, which will result in a
unique set of outputs.
Ex: Arrival of patients to the Dentist at the scheduled
appointment time.
 Stochastic Model:- where the effects of the activity vary
randomly over various possible outcomes. 12
 Steps in a Simulation study
1. Problem formulation:- Every study begins with a statement of the problem,
provided by policy makers.
2. Setting of objectives and overall project plan:-The objectives indicate the
questions to be answered by simulation. At this point a determination should be
made concerning whether simulation is the appropriate methodology. Assuming it is
appropriate, the overall project plan should include:-
 Plans for the study in terms of the number of people involved.
 Cost of the study.
 The number of days required to accomplish each phase of the work with the anticipated results.
3. Model conceptualization:-Essential feature of the problem must be introduced in
the model, and basic assumption that characterize the system must be selected .
4. Data collection:-Objective kinds of data are to be collected.
5. Model translation:-The translation of the model into computerized representation
using simulation and modeling tools.
6. Model Verification :- Focus on is the computer program performing properly? If
the input parameters and logical structure and correctly represented, verification is
completed.
7. Model Validation:-It is the determination that a model is an accurate representation of
the real system behavior . 13
8. Experimental Design:-The decision alternatives that are to
be simulated must be determined.
 The initialization period
 Length of simulation runs
 Number of replication to be made of each run
9. Production runs and analysis:-They are used to estimate
measures of performance for the system designs that are
being simulated
10. More runs:- To increase the accuracy of performance
measures ,the analyst determines if additional runs are needed.
11. Documentation and Reporting
12. Implementation

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 STEP OF simulation STUDY can DIVIDED into 4 phases

1. Phase I :- Consists of steps 1 and 2.

It is period of discovery/orientation.

2. Phase II :-Consists of steps 3,4,5,6 and 7.

Considered as model building phase

3. Phase III:-Consists of steps 8, 9 and 10.

Considered as run phase.

4. Phase IV:-Consists of steps 11 and 12.

Successful implementation depends on the involvement
of user and every steps successful completion.
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 STEPS IN A SIMULATION STUDY

Model
No Experimental
conceptualization
Design

Setting of Yes
Problem objectives Model Yes
Verified? Validated? Production runs
formulation and overall translation
and analysis
project plan No
Yes Yes
Data No More runs?
collection
No
Documentation
Implementation and reporting

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