DISCRETE PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTION
MATH 403 – ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS
RANDOM VARIABLES
 Variable is a characteristic or attribute that can assume different values
 Random variable assigns a numerical values to each outcome of a
chance event
 It is always represented by capital letters
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES
 Discrete random variables can take on either a finite or at most a
countably infinite set of discrete values.
 The outcome can assume only a specific number of outcomes.
 Juan is not a very smart student. When he tries to answer a multiple-choice
question, he used to guess everything. Suppose he is taking a quiz that has two
multiple choice questions on it, and that each question has four possible answers,
only one of which is correct. Let X represent the number of correct answers on
the quiz.
 Results for answering the two multiple choice questions:
{a, b, c, d} & {1, 2, 3, 4}
{a1, a2, a3, a4, b1, b2, b3, b4, c1, c2, c3, c4, d1, d2, d3, d4} = 16 outcomes

X (number of correct answer/s) 0 1 2

b2, b3, b4, c2, c3, c4, d2, d3,

OUTCOMES d4 a2, a3, a4, b1, c1, d1 a1
The results of rolling a dice once.
Let X be a random variable representing the results of dice
Results for tossing a die once:
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

X (numbers on
dice)

OUTCOMES
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION of a random variable is the lists of all values of random
variables (X) and their probabilities {P(X)}.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
 Consist of the values a discrete random variable (X) can assume and the corresponding
probabilities {P(X)} of the values:
 It can be represented by:
·Table
·Graph
·Formula
 Note:
·The sum of all probabilities in a probability distribution is 1.
 Juan is not a very smart student. When he tries to answer a multiple-choice
question, he used to guess everything. Suppose he is taking a quiz that has two
multiple choice questions on it, and that each question has four possible answers,
only one of which is correct. Let X represent the number of correct answers on
the quiz.
 Results for answering the two multiple choice questions:
{a, b, c, d} & {1, 2, 3, 4}
{a1, a2, a3, a4, b1, b2, b3, b4, c1, c2, c3, c4, d1, d2, d3, d4} = 16 outcomes
X (number of correct answer/s) 0 1 2

b2, b3, b4, c2, c3, c4, d2, d3,

OUTCOMES d4 a2, a3, a4, b1, c1, d1 a1

X (number of correct answer/s) 0 1 2

P(X)
The results of rolling a dice once.
Let X be a random variable representing the results of dice
Results for tossing a die once:
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
X (numbers on
dice)

OUTCOMES

X (numbers on
dice)

P(X)
EXPECTED VALUE
 The EXPECTED VALUE of a discrete random variable is the weighted
average of all possible values that this random variable can take on.
 Also called as mean, mathematical expectation, expectation, first
moment.
 It is the sum of the product of the random variable to its probability.
 It is represented by the formula:
 Juan is not a very smart student. When he tries to answer a multiple-choice question, he used
to guess everything. Suppose he is taking a quiz that has two multiple choice questions on it,
and that each question has four possible answers, only one of which is correct. The number of
correct answer/s is described by the following probability distribution. What is the mean of the
probability distribution?
X (number of correct answer/s) 0 1 2
P(X) 0.5625 0.3750 0.0625
 The number of qualified voters living in the household on a randomly selected Subdivision
block is described by the following probability distribution. What is the mean of the probability
distribution.
X (number of qualified voter/s) 1 2 3 4
P(X) 0.35 0.40 0.15 0.10
 In a recent Barangay Basketball League, each player went to free throws 2 times. The number
of free throws made by each player is described by the following probability distribution. What
is the mean of the probability distribution?
X (number of free throw/s) 0 1 2
P(X) 0.25 0.40 0.35
A life insurance company will sell a 1 million three-year term life insurance policy exclusive in a
particular risk group for a premium of ₱2,000.00. Let X denote the net gain to the company
from the sale of one policy. If a person in this risk group has a 99.95% chance of surviving
within three years, find the expected value to the company of a single policy.

X (net gain in peso)

P(X)
A lotto works by picking 6 numbers from 1- 42 (Combinations of numbers from 1-
42 taken 6 at a time produce 5,245,786 number combinations). A ticket costs
₱24.00 to play the lottery. If you win today, you would win 5 million pesos after
taxes. If you play the lottery today, what would be your expected winnings or
losses? (Hint: The total number of ways is 5,245,786)
X (net gain in peso)

P(X)
VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION
 Variance and Standard Deviation measures or describes how far a set of assumed values of
random variables is “spread out”.
 Small variance or standard deviation means that the assumed values or data points tend to be
very close to the mean.
 Higher variance or standard deviation means that the assumed values or data points are
spread out from the mean.
 Juan is not a very smart student. When he tries to answer a multiple-choice question, he used
to guess everything. Suppose he is taking a quiz that has two multiple choice questions on it,
and that each question has four possible answers, only one of which is correct. The number of
correct answer/s is described by the following probability distribution. What is the variance
and standard deviation of the probability distribution?
X (number of correct answer/s) 0 1 2
P(X) 0.5625 0.3750 0.0625
 The number of qualified voters living in the household on a randomly selected Subdivision
block is described by the following probability distribution. What is the variance and standard
deviation of the probability distribution.
X (number of qualified voter/s) 1 2 3 4
P(X) 0.35 0.40 0.15 0.10
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT
 A binomial experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following
properties:
 The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
 Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes. We call one of these
outcomes a success and the other, a failure.
 The probability in each trial is constant.
 The probability of success, denoted by p, is the same on every trial.
 The probability of failure, denoted by q, is the same on every trial.
 The trials are independent; that is, the outcome on one trial does not affect
the outcome on other trials.
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
 Binomial probability refers to the probability that a binomial experiment results in
exactly “r” successes.

Where:
 n = number of trials
 r = number of successes that result from a binomial experiment
 p = probability of success in every trial
 q = probability of failure in every trial
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
 A binomial random variable is the number of The binomial distribution has the
successes “r” in “n” repeated trials of a binomial following properties:
experiment. • The mean of the distribution is

 The probability distribution of a binomial random

variable is called BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION. • The variance is
 It can be represented by:
·Table • The standard deviation is
·Graph
·Formula
 Note:
·The sum of all probabilities in a binomial
distribution is 1.
·Every probability is a number between 0 and 1.
Construct a binomial distribution in rolling a pair of dice 2 times and getting a
sum of 7. Compute also the mean, variance and standard deviation.
Let X be a binomial random variable representing the number of successes in
getting a sum of 7 {0,1,2}

X (number of successes in getting a

sum of 7) 0 1 2

P(X)
Construct a binomial distribution of showing heads in tossing the coin twice.
Solve also the mean, variance and standard deviation.
Let X be a binomial random variable of number of successes in showing heads
{0,1,2}.

X (number of successes in showing 0 1 2

heads)
P(X)
CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
 CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY refers to the probability that the binomial
random variable falls within a specified range (e.g., is greater than or equal to a
stated lower limit and less than or equal to a stated upper limit).
P ( X ≤ r ) =∑ nCr ⋅ p ⋅q P ( X ≥ r ) =∑ nCr ⋅ p ⋅q
r n−r r n−r

r r

P ( X <r )=∑ nCr ⋅ p ⋅q P ( X >r )=∑ nCr ⋅ p ⋅q

r n−r r n−r

r r
What is the probability of obtaining 50 or fewer heads in 100 tosses of a coin?
The probability that a student is accepted to a prestigious college is 0.3. If 5
students from the same school apply, what is the probability that at most 3 are
accepted?
POISSON PROBABILITY
 In Poisson Probability, it talks about the probability of how likely an event to happen for a
specific period of time
 The Poisson Probability that exactly “r” successes occur in a Poisson experiment, when the
mean number of successes is μ is given by the formula:
Where:
r −μ
 μ = average number of successes μ ·e
 μ = variance of Poisson distribution P=
r!
 μ = mean of the distribution
 r = exact number of successes
 e = Euler’s number = 2.71828
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
 A POISSON RANDOM VARIABLE is the number of successes that result from a Poisson
experiment.
 The probability distribution of a Poisson random variable is called a POISSON DISTRIBUTION
 It can be represented by:
·Table
·Graph
·Formula
 Note:
·The sum of all probabilities in a poisson distribution is 1.
·Every probability is a number between 0 and 1.
CUMULATIVE POISSON PROBABILITY
 A CUMULATIVE POISSON PROBABILITY refers to the probability that the Poisson
random variable is greater than some specified lower limit and less than some
specified upper limit.
r −μ r −μ
μ ·e μ ·e
P ( X ≤ r ) =∑ P ( X ≥ r ) =∑
r r! r r!

r −μ r −μ
μ ·e μ ·e
P ( X < r )=∑ P ( X > r )=∑
r r! r r!
Suppose the average number of lions seen on a 1-day safari is 5. What is the
probability that tourists will see fewer than four lions on the next 1-day safari?
Suppose the average number of lions seen on a 1-day safari is 5. What is the
probability that tourists will see at most four lions on the next 1-day safari?
Suppose the average number of lions seen on a 1-day safari is 5. What is the
probability that tourists will see at least four lions on the next 1-day safari?