Basic concepts of probability

Basic Probability
Bhakti Manjrekar
Random experiment:
Any phenomenon or an operation which has
possible outcomes is called an experiment or
trial.
E.g.: 1) tossing an unbiased coin, 2)

throwing a fair dice, 3) drawing a card from
well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
Sample Space:
Set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment is called a sample space. It is
denoted by S.
E.g.: 1) S= {H, T} 2) S= {1,2, 3,4,5,6}

3) S= {1,2, 3………………….52}
Event:
The sub set of sample space is called an
event . It is denoted by A, B, C……..
E.g.: 1) Event A is Head. So, A={H} 2)

B is odd no’s, B = {1, 3,5}
Example of probability
When randomly selecting a day from the year 2015

what is the probability the day is in January?
X number of days in January

Probability of Day In January  
T total number of days in 2015
X 31 days in January 31
 
T 365 days in 2015 365
Example of probability
Find the probability of selecting a male taking statistics

from the population described in the following table:
Taking Stats Not Taking Total

Stats
Male 84 145 229
Female 76 134 210
Total 160 279 439
number of males taking stats 84

Probability of male taking stats   0.191
total number of people 439
Impossible Event –
an event that has no chance of
occurring (probability = 0)
Certain Event –
an event that is sure to occur
(probability = 1)
Simple Probability
 Simple Probability refers to the probability of a
simple event.
 ex. P(Jan.)
 ex. P(Wed.)
Jan. Not Jan. Total

P(Wed.) = 52 / 365
Wed. 4 48 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313
Total 31 334 365
P(Jan.) = 31 / 365
Definition: Joint Probability
 Joint Probability refers to the probability of an
occurrence of two or more events (joint event).
 ex. P(Jan. and Wed.)
 ex. P(Not Jan. and Not Wed.)
Jan. Not Jan. Total

P(Not Jan. and Not Wed.)
Wed. 4 48 52
= 286 / 365
Not Wed. 27 286 313
Total 31 334 365
P(Jan. and Wed.) = 4 / 365

Mutually exclusive Events:
 Mutually exclusive events

 Events that cannot occur simultaneously
Example: Randomly choosing a day from 2015
A = day in January; B = day in February
 Events A and B are mutually exclusive

Exhaustive Events:
If the sample points of the two events taken
together constitute the sample space of the
experiment, the event is called as the
exhaustive events.
If two events A and B are such that A∪B=S.
•E.g.: A= {1,3,4,5} B= {2,4,6} then A∪B=S
Joint Probability Example
Jan. Not Jan. Total
Wed. 4 48 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313
Total 31 334 365

Probability Summary So Far
 Probability is the numerical measure
of the likelihood that an event will 1 Certain
occur
 The probability of any event must be
between 0 and 1, inclusively
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 For any event A 0.5
 The sum of the probabilities of all
mutually exclusive and exhaustive
events is 1
P(A)  P(B)  P(C) 1
0 Impossible
If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive and
exhaustive
General Addition Rule
General Addition Rule:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P(A and B) = 0, so the rule can be simplified:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

For mutually exclusive events A and B
General Addition Rule Example
P(Jan. or Wed.) = P(Jan.) + P(Wed.) - P(Jan. and Wed.)

= 31/365 + 52/365 - 4/365 = 79/365
Don’t count
the four
Wednesdays
in January
Jan. Not Jan. Total twice!
Wed. 4 48 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313
Total 31 334 365

Computing Conditional
Probabilities
 A conditional probability is the probability of one
event, given that another event has occurred:
P(A and B) The conditional
P(A | B)  probability of A given
P(B) that B has occurred
P(A and B) The conditional

P(B | A)  probability of B given
P(A) that A has occurred
Where P(A and B) = joint probability of A and B

P(A) = marginal or simple probability of A
P(B) = marginal or simple probability of B
Conditional Probability Example
 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air

conditioning (AC) and 40% have a GPS. 20%
of the cars have both.
 What is the probability that a car has a GPS,

given that it has AC ?
i.e., we want to find P(GPS | AC)

(continued)
 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning
(AC) and 40% have a GPS and
20% of the cars have both.
GPS No GPS Total
AC 0.2 0.5 0.7
No AC 0.2 0.1 0.3
Total 0.4 0.6 1.0
P(GPS and AC) 0.2

P(GPS | AC)   0.2857
P(AC) 0.7
(continued)
 Given AC, we only consider the top row (70% of the cars). Of
these, 20% have a GPS. 20% of 70% is about 28.57%.
GPS No GPS Total

AC 0.2 0.5 0.7
No AC 0.2 0.1 0.3
Total 0.4 0.6 1.0
P(GPS and AC) 0.2

P(GPS | AC)   0.2857
P(AC) 0.7
Independence
 Two events are independent if and only if:
P(A | B) P(A)
 Events A and B are independent when the probability of
one event is not affected by the fact that the other event
has occurred
Multiplication Rules
 Multiplication rule for two events A and B:
P(A and B) P(A | B) P(B)
Note: If A and B are independent, then P(A | B) P(A)

and the multiplication rule simplifies to
P(A and B) P(A) P(B)

A ticket is drawn at random
from a set of 20 tickets
numbered from 1 to 20. What
is the probability that the
number of ticket drawn is
divisible by 2 or 3?
Counting Rules
 Rules for counting the number of possible
outcomes
 Counting Rule 1:
 If any one of k different mutually exclusive
and collectively exhaustive events can occur
on each of n trials, the number of possible
outcomes is equal to
kn
 Example

If you roll a fair die 3 times then there are 63 = 216
possible outcomes
 If there are k events on the first trial, k events
1 2
on the second trial, … and kn events on the nth
trial, the number of possible outcomes is
(k1)(k2)…(kn)
 Example:

You want to go to a park, eat at a restaurant, and
see a movie. There are 3 parks, 4 restaurants, and
6 movie choices. How many different possible
combinations are there?

Answer: (3)(4)(6) = 72 different possibilities
 The number of ways that n items can
be arranged in order is
n! = (n)(n – 1)…(1)
 Example:

You have five books to put on a bookshelf.
How many different ways can these books
be placed on the shelf?

Answer: 5! = (5)(4)(3)(2)(1) = 120 different
possibilities
 Permutations: The number of ways of arranging r
objects selected from n objects in order is
 Example:

You have five books and are going to put three on a
bookshelf. How many different ways can the books be
ordered on the bookshelf?
n! 5! 120

Answer: n Px    60 different possibilities
(n  X)! (5  3)! 2
NOTE:
 1. nP0 = 1
 2. nPn = n!
 3. nPr = n x (n-1) x (n-2) x (n-3)……r terms
Eg. 3P2 = 3 x 2 = 6
6
P4 = 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 = 360
 Combinations: The number of ways of selecting r
objects from n objects, irrespective of order, is
 Example:

You have five books and are going to select three are to
read. How many different combinations are there, ignoring
the order in which they are selected?
n! 5! 120

Answer: n C x    10 different possibilities
X!(n  X)! 3!(5  3)! (6)(2)
NOTE:

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Basic Probability

E.g.: 1) tossing an unbiased coin, 2)

E.g.: 1) S= {H, T} 2) S= {1,2, 3,4,5,6}

E.g.: 1) Event A is Head. So, A={H} 2)

When randomly selecting a day from the year 2015

X number of days in January

Find the probability of selecting a male taking statistics

Taking Stats Not Taking Total

number of males taking stats 84

Jan. Not Jan. Total

Total 31 334 365

Jan. Not Jan. Total

Total 31 334 365

P(Jan. and Wed.) = 4 / 365

 Mutually exclusive events

Example: Randomly choosing a day from 2015

A = day in January; B = day in February

 Events A and B are mutually exclusive

Jan. Not Jan. Total

Total 31 334 365

General Addition Rule:

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

P(Jan. or Wed.) = P(Jan.) + P(Wed.) - P(Jan. and Wed.)

Total 31 334 365

P(A and B) The conditional

Where P(A and B) = joint probability of A and B

 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air

 What is the probability that a car has a GPS,

i.e., we want to find P(GPS | AC)

P(GPS and AC) 0.2

GPS No GPS Total

P(GPS and AC) 0.2

 Two events are independent if and only if:

 Multiplication rule for two events A and B:

P(A and B) P(A | B) P(B)

Note: If A and B are independent, then P(A | B) P(A)

P(A and B) P(A) P(B)

 3. nPr = n x (n-1) x (n-2) x (n-3)……r terms

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