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Lec 5(Probability)

This document provides an overview of probability and probability distributions, focusing on definitions, categories, and rules of probability. It emphasizes the importance of probability in statistics and medicine, highlighting how it helps quantify uncertainty in decision-making processes. The document also covers concepts such as independent and dependent events, conditional probability, and provides examples relevant to public health.

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Begidu Yilma
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
12 views

Lec 5(Probability)

This document provides an overview of probability and probability distributions, focusing on definitions, categories, and rules of probability. It emphasizes the importance of probability in statistics and medicine, highlighting how it helps quantify uncertainty in decision-making processes. The document also covers concepts such as independent and dependent events, conditional probability, and provides examples relevant to public health.

Uploaded by

Begidu Yilma
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 102

Arba-Minch University

College of Medicine and Health sciences


School of Public Health

PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

By: Etenesh K. (BSc, MPH( Epidemiology & Biostatistics))

02/09/2025 1
Learning objectives
At the end of this chapter, the student will be able to:

• Define Probability and related terms

• Categories of Probability

• Properties of probability and Basic Probability Rules

• Discuss Probability distribution of different variables

02/09/2025 2
Why Probability in Statistics?

 Nothing in life is certain(uncertainty is high) i.e. we

gauge the chances of successful outcomes.


 A probability provides a quantitative description of the

chances or likelihoods associated with various outcomes.


 Probability theory was developed out of attempting to

solve problems related to games of chance such as


tossing a coin, rolling a die, etc.
 i.e. trying to quantify personal beliefs regarding degrees

of uncertainty.
02/09/2025 3
Why Probability in Medicine?

 Because medicine is an inexact science, physicians seldom


predict an outcome with absolute certainty.
E.g., to formulate a diagnosis, a physician must rely on available
diagnostic information about a patient
 History and physical examination
 Laboratory investigation, X-ray findings, ECG, etc

4
cont..
 Although no test result is absolutely accurate, it does affect
the probability of the presence or absence of a disease.
 Sensitivity and specificity
 An understanding of probability is fundamental for
quantifying the uncertainty that is inherent in the decision-
making process.

5
Cont..

• Probability theory is a foundation for statistical inference

 Probability theory allows us to draw conclusions about a

population of patients based on known information of sample

patients drawn from that population.

02/09/2025 6
Probability
 The chance that an uncertain event will occur/ chance of
occurrence.

 Likelihood of an event

 Assumes a random process i.e. the outcome is not predetermined


- there is an element of chance

 e.g. If a patient taking a certain drug, what is the chance of cure?

 Probability can also be defined as the number of times in which


that event occurs in a very large number of trials.

02/09/2025 7
Cont..
Outcome
A specific result of a single trial of a
probability experiment
Experiment
any process with an uncertain outcome
• When an experiment is performed, one and
only one outcome is obtained
• An experiment is a trial and all possible
outcomes are events.

02/09/2025 8
Cont..
Event
 Something that may happen or not when the
experiment is performed.
• An event is any set of outcomes of interest
Sample Space
 is the collection of all possible outcomes

e.g. All 6 faces of a die


P(S) = 1

02/09/2025 9
Cont..

Two Categories of Probability


1.Objective Probability
A. Classical probability

B. Relative frequency probability.

2. Subjective Probabilities

02/09/2025 10
cont..

• Classical Probability: assumes that all outcomes in the sample


space are equally likely to occur.

02/09/2025 11
Con..
Example: If we toss a die, what is the probability of coming up (4)?

– E = 1 (which is 4) and S = 6

– The probability of 4 coming up is 1/6

• There are 2 possible outcomes {H, T} in the set of all possible trials
of Tossing of coin

P(H) = 0.5

P(T) = 0.5

SUM = 1.0
02/09/2025 12
Relative Frequency Probability

• Relative frequency probability: The probability that


something occurs is the proportion of times it occurs
when exactly the same experiment is repeated a very
large (preferably infinite!) number of times in
independent trials.

02/09/2025 13
Cont..

02/09/2025 14
Cont..
• E.g. Suppose that of 158 people who attended a dinner party
99 were ill due to food poisoning.
– The probability of illness for a person selected at random is
Pr(illness) = 99/158 = 0.63 or 63%.

02/09/2025 15
Subjective probability

• Subjective probability: measures the confidence or a wish


that a particular individual has in the truth of a particular
proposition.
• It also known as educated guess
E.g. If some one says that he is 95% certain that a cure for
AIDS will be discovered within 5 years, then he means that
Pr(discovery of cure of AIDS within 5 years) = 95%.

02/09/2025 16
Unions and Intersections

• Intersections of Two Events


• “If A and B are events, then the intersection of A and B,
denoted by AnB , represents the event composed of all basic
outcomes in A and B.”

02/09/2025 17
Cont..
• Unions of Two Events
• The union of A or B, A U B, is the event that either A
happens or B happens or they both happen simultaneously

– P ( A or B ) = P ( A U B )

02/09/2025 18
Mutually exclusive

• Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they have no


elements in common.
• If A and B are outcomes of an experiment they cannot both
happen at the same time.

• Thus, if A and B are mutually exclusive events, Pr(A or B) = Pr


(A) + Pr(B).

02/09/2025 19
02/09/2025 20
Basic Probability Rules

1. Addition rule
If events A and B are mutually exclusive:

 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

 P(A and B) = 0

More generally:

 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

 P (event A or event B occurs or they both occur)

02/09/2025 21
02/09/2025 22
Con…

Example: One die is rolled. Sample space = S =


(1,2,3,4,5,6)
• Let A = the event an odd number turns up, A =
(1,3,5)
• Let B = the event 1,2 or 3 turns up; B = (1,2,3 )
• Let C = the event 2 turns up, C= (2)
Find 1. Pr (A), Pr (B) and Pr (C)

02/09/2025 23
Cont..
Answer

Pr(A) = Pr(1) + Pr(3) + Pr(5) = 1/6+1/6+ 1/6 =


3/6 = 1/2
Pr(B) = Pr(1) + pr(2) + Pr(3) = 1/6+1/6+1/6 = 3/6

Pr (C) = Pr(2) = 1/6

2. Are A and B; A and C; B and C mutually exclusive?

02/09/2025 24
Cont..
 A and B are not mutually exclusive.
Because they have the
elements 1 and 3 in common.
 Similarly, B and C are not mutually
exclusive. They have the
element 2 in common.
 A and C are mutually exclusive. They don’t
have any element in common

02/09/2025 25
Example: The probabilities below represent years of
schooling completed by mothers of newborn infants

26
cont..
 What is the probability that a mother has
completed < 12 years of schooling?
P( 8 years) = 0.056 and
P(9-11 years) = 0.159
 Since these two events are mutually exclusive,
P( 8 or 9-11) = P( 8 U 9-11)
= P( 8) + P(9-11)
= 0.056+0.159
= 0.215

27
cont..
 What is the probability that a mother has completed
12 or more years of schooling?
P(12) = P(12 or 13-15 or 16)
= P(12 U 13-15 U 16)
= P(12)+P(13-15)+P(16)
= 0.321+0.218+0.230
= 0.769

28
Con…
2. Multiplication rule
– If A and B are independent events,

– Then P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)

• More generally (both independent & dependent),

– P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B|A) = P(B) P(A|B)

– P (A and B) denotes the probability that A and B both occur


at the same time.

29
02/09/2025
Example

• In tossing two coins, what is the probability that a head will


occur both on the first coin and the second coin?

– Since there is independence between events

– Then P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)

=½x½=¼

02/09/2025 30
Independent Events

• Two events A and B are independent events


if the fact that A occurs does not affect the
probability of B occurring or

• The outcome of one event has no effect on


the occurrence or non-occurrence of the
other

• Thus, if events A & B are independent,


Pr(B/A) = P(B) and Pr(A/B) = P(A).
• Then, P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B)
02/09/2025 31
Cont..
 Example: n tosses of a coin and the chances
that on each toss it lands heads.
 These are independent events.

 The chance of heads on any one toss is


independent of the number of previous heads.
 No matter how many heads have already
been observed, the chance of heads on the
next toss is ½.

02/09/2025 32
Dependent Events
• When the outcome or occurrence of the first
event affects the outcome or occurrence of the
second event in such a way that the probability
is changed, the events are said to be
dependent events.

For example:

– E1 = Rain forecasted on the news

– E2 = Take umbrella to work

• Probability of the second event is affected by


the occurrence of the first event.
02/09/2025 33
Con…
When two events are dependent, the
probability of both occurring is
– P(A and B) = P(A). P(B/A). From this
• P(B/A)= P(A and B)

P(A) this is called


conditional probability

02/09/2025 34
Conditional Probability

• Refers to the probability of an event, given that


another event is known to have occurred.

– “What happened first is assumed”

• The conditional probability that event B has


occurred given that event A has already occurred
is denoted P(B|A) and is defined

• Provided that P(A) > 0


02/09/2025 35
Example:
• A study investigating the effect of prolonged
exposure to bright light on retina damage in
premature infants:
Retinopathy
Light exposure Yes No Total

Bright light 18 3 21
Reduced light 21 18 39
Total 39 21 60

02/09/2025 36
Con…

• The probability of developing retinopathy is:


P (Retinopathy) = No. of infants with retinopathy
Total No. of infants
= (18+21)/(21+39)
= 0.65

02/09/2025 37
Con…
• The conditional probability of retinopathy, given
exposure to bright light, is:

• P(Retinopathy/exposure to bright light) =


No. of infants with retinopathy exposed to
bright light
No. of infants exposed to bright light
= 18/21 = 0.86 OR

• P (R/BL) = P( R and BL) = 18/60 = 0.86


02/09/2025 38
P(BL) 21/60
Con…

• P(Retinopathy/exposure to reduced light) =


# of infants with retinopathy exposed to reduced light
No. of infants exposed to reduced light
= 21/39 = 0.54

• The conditional probabilities suggest that premature


infants exposed to bright light have a higher risk of
retinopathy than premature infants exposed to
reduced light.
02/09/2025 39
Exercise
• Culture and Gonodectin (GD) test results for 240 Urethral
discharge specimens

Culture result
GD test result Gonorrhea No Gonorrhea Total

Positive 175 9 184


Negative 8 48 56
Total 183 57 240

02/09/2025 40
Cont..
A. What is the probability that a man has gonorrhea?

B. What is the probability that a man has a positive GD test


and have the disease Gonorrhea?

C. What is the probability that a man has a negative GD test


and does not have gonorrhea

D. What is the probability that a man has the disease


(Gonorrhea) given the test reads positive

E. What is the probability that a man has not the disease


(Gonorrhea) given the test reads negative

02/09/2025 41
Con…
• What is the probability that a man has gonorrhea?
– P (gonorrhea) = No. of persons with gonorrhea
Total No. of sample persons
= 183/240
= 0.76

02/09/2025 42
Con…

• What is the probability that a man has a positive GD test


and have the disease Gonorrhea?
– P (test positive | they have the disease)

– P (gonorrhea) = No. of persons with true positives for


test
Total No. of persons with Disease
Gonorrhea)
= 175/183
= 0.96 * 100% = 96%
– N.B: True positives = Positive test result and the disease
02/09/2025 43
Con…
• What is the probability that a man has a negative GD test
and does not have gonorrhea
– P(test negative | they don’t have the disease)

P (-ve test ∣ No gonorrhea) = No. of persons who are true


negatives for test
Total No. of persons without Gonorrhea
= 48/57
= 0.84 = 84%
N.B: True negatives = Negative test result and don’t have
disease
02/09/2025 44
Con…
• What is the probability that a man has the disease (Gonorrhea)
given the test reads positive
• P (gonorrhea ∣ the test reads positive) =

No. of persons with true positives for test


Total No. of persons with positive test result
= 175/184
= 0.95; 95%

02/09/2025 45
Con…
• What is the probability that a man has not the disease
(Gonorrhea) given the test reads negative
• P (No gonorrhea ∣ the test reads negative) =

No. of persons with true negatives for test


Total No. of persons with Negative test result
= 48/56
= 0.86; 86%

02/09/2025 46
Properties of probability

1. Probabilities are real numbers on the interval from 0 to 1.

2. If two events are mutually exclusive ,then Pr(A or B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B).

3. If A and B are two events, not mutually exclusive , then P(AuB) = Pr

(A) +Pr (B) – Pr( A and B).

4. The sum of the probabilities that an event will occur and that it will

not occur is equal to 1; hence, P(A’) = 1 – P(A)

5. If A and B are two independent events, then Pr ( A and B) = Pr

(A).Pr(B)

• This means that P(AnB)=P(A).P(B)

02/09/2025 47
Probability distribution

• The term probability distribution: refers to the

collection of all possible outcomes along with their


probabilities.
• Every random variable has a corresponding probability

distribution.
• A random variable is a variable whose values are
determined by chance.

• Random variables can be categorical, discrete or continuous.

02/09/2025 48
Cont..
• A discrete random variable is able to assume only a finite or
countable number of outcomes.
• A continuous random variable can take on any value in a
specified interval.
• Continuous random variables can assume an infinite number of
values and can be decimal and fractional values.
• With numeric variables, the aim is to determine whether or not
normality may be assumed.
02/09/2025 49
Cont..
• For categorical variables, we obtain the frequency
distribution of each variable.
• A categorical distribution is a discrete probability distribution
that describes the probability that a random variable will take
on a value that belongs to one of K categories, where each
category has a probability associated with it.

02/09/2025 50
Probability distribution of a
categorical variables

• For a distribution to be classified as a categorical distribution,


it must meet the following criteria:
The categories are discrete.
• There are two or more potential categories.
• The probability that the random variable takes on a value in
each category must be between 0 and 1.
• The sum of the probabilities for all categories must sum to 1.

02/09/2025 51
• The most obvious example of a categorical
distribution is the distribution of outcomes
associated with rolling a dice. There are K =
6 potential outcomes and the probability for
each outcome is 1/6:E.g.
Value on Face 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

• Notice that the total probability is 1.

02/09/2025 52
Discrete Probability Distributions

• A discrete random variable is a variable


that can assume only a countable number
of values.
• Many possible outcomes:
– No. of patients tested for HIV
– No. of patients attending a health facility
per day
• Only two possible outcomes:
– Yes or no responses, positive or negative
test result
– Gender: male or female
02/09/2025 53
Cont..
• For a discrete random variable, the probability
distribution specifies each of the possible
outcomes of the random variable along with the
probability that each will occur
• Examples can be:
– Frequency distribution
– Relative frequency distribution
– Cumulative frequency distribution
02/09/2025 54
Example
• The following data shows the number of diagnostic services a
patient receives

• The sum of all the individual probabilities is 1

02/09/2025 55
Cont..
• What is the probability that a patient receives
exactly 3 diagnostic services?
P(X=3) = 0.031
• What is the probability that a patient receives at
most one diagnostic service or less than or equals
to one?
P (X≤1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)
= 0.671 + 0.229
02/09/2025 56
= 0.900
Cont..
• What is the probability that a patient receives at least four
diagnostic services?
P (X≥4) = P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)
= 0.010 + 0.006
= 0.016

02/09/2025 57
Cont..
 Properties of probability distribution of discrete

random variable
0 ≤ P(X = x) ≤ 1

∑ P(X = x) = 1

 Examples of probability distributions for discrete

random variables:

– Binomial distribution

– Poisson distribution
02/09/2025 58
Binomial distribution

 It is one of the most widely encountered discrete probability


distributions.
 The binomial distribution is the probability distribution that
results from doing a “binomial experiment”.
 A process that has only two possible outcomes is called a
binomial process. In statistics the two outcomes are frequently
denoted as success and failure.
 The probabilities of a success or a failure are denoted by p and
q, respectively. Note that p + q = 1.
02/09/2025 59
Cont..

Binomial assumptions:
1) The same experiment is carried out n times ( n
trials are made).
2) Each trial has two possible outcomes ( usually
these outcomes are called “ success” and “
failure”. If P is the probability of success in one
trial, then 1-p is the probability of failure.
3) The result of each trial is independent of the result
of any other trial.
02/09/2025 60
• If the binomial assumptions are satisfied and an
experiment is repeated n times and the outcome
is independent from one trial to another, the
probability that outcome X occurs exactly x times
is: Pr(X=x) = n! p x (1- p)n-x
x!(n-x)!
– X! = x (x-1) (x-2) …….. ( 1)
– Note: 0! =1 (by definition)
– n : denotes the number of fixed trials
– x : denotes the number of successes in the n
trials
– p : denotes the probability of success
– q : denotes the probability of failure (1- p)

02/09/2025 61
Example

1: Suppose that in a certain population 52% of all recorded births


are males.
 If we select randomly 10 birth records What is the probability
that exactly.
5 will be males?

Pr(X=5) = 10! 0.52 5 (1- 0.52)10-5 =0.24


5!(10-5)!
3 or more will be males?

Pr(X≥3) = 1- Pr(X<3) = Pr(X=0)+Pr(X=1)+Pr(X=2)


=1-[0.001+0.013+0.111]= 1-0.125=0.875
02/09/2025 62
Cont..
2.Suppose we know that 40% of a certain population are
cigarette smokers. If we take a random sample of 10 people
from this population, what is the probability that we will have
exactly 4 smokers in our sample?

02/09/2025 63
Cont..
Solution
P=0.40
x=4
n=10
P(X=4) =10C4(0.4)4(1-0.4)10-4
= 10C4(0.4)4(0.6)6 = 210(.0256)(.04666)
= 0.25
 The probability of obtaining exactly 4 smokers in the sample
is about 0.25.

02/09/2025 64
Cont..
3. 70% of a certain population has been immunized for polio. If a
sample of size 50 is taken, what is the “expected total number”,
in the sample who have been immunized?
– µ = np = 50(.70) = 35
• This tells us that “on the average” we expect to see 35
immunized subjects in a sample of 50 from this population.

02/09/2025 65
Binomial distribution, generally
Note the general pattern emerging  if you have only
two possible outcomes (call them 1/0 or yes/no or
success/failure) in n independent trials, then the
probability of exactly X “successes”=
n = number of trials

 n X n X
  p (1  p )
X 1-p = probability of
failure

X=# p = probability of
successes out success
of n trials

02/09/2025 66
Poisson distribution

 Used to model the number of occurrences


of an event that takes place infrequently
in time or space.
 Applicable for counts of events over a
given interval of time
Example:
1. number of patients arriving at an
emergency department in a day
2. number of new cases of HIV diagnosed at
a clinic in a month
02/09/2025 67
Cont..
 Three assumptions must be met for a Poisson distribution to
apply:
1. The probability that a single event occurs within a given small
subinterval is proportional to the length of the subinterval
2. The rate at which the event occurs is constant over the entire
interval
3. Events occurring in consecutive subintervals are independent
of each other
4. The mean and variance of a Poisson distributed variable are
given by
µ=σ2 = np.

02/09/2025 68
Cont..

• When the probability of “success” is very


small, then px and (1 – p)n – x become too
small to calculate exactly by the binomial
distribution.
 In such cases, the Poisson distribution
becomes useful.
Let λ be the expected number of
successes in a process consisting of n trials, 69
02/09/2025
Cont..
• The probability of observing X successes is

Where:
 The symbol e is the constant equal to 2.7183.
 λ (Lambda) is the rate at which the event occurs, or
the expected number of events per unit time).
 X is a potential outcome of X

02/09/2025 70
Example

1.Suppose x is a random variable representing the


number of individuals involved in a road accident
each year in USA , which is 2.4 per 10,000
population each year. Given, λ = 2.4
Pr (X=0) = 2.40 e-2.4 = 0.091
0!
2.Pr (X=1) = 2.41 e-2.4 = 0.218
1!
3.Pr (X=2) = 2.42 e-2.4 = 0.262
2!
4. Pr (X>2) = 1- (Pr (X=0) +Pr (X=1) +(X=2)) =0.429

02/09/2025 71
Probability distribution of
continuous variables
• A continuous random variable: any value that can assume
any value in a specified interval or range.
• Under different circumstances, the outcome of a random
variable may not be limited to categories or counts.
• Let us consider the data of grouped frequency distribution
presented in Table under descriptive Statistics and its
histogram.

02/09/2025 72
Cont..
• Smooth curves are used to represent graphically the
distributions of continuous random variables.
• This has some important consequences when we deal with
probability distributions.
• Instead of assigning probabilities to specific outcomes of the
random variable X, probabilities are assigned to ranges of
values.

02/09/2025 73
Example: Distribution of the age of women at the time of
marriage

02/09/2025 74
Cont..

02/09/2025 75
Cont..
– A continuous probability distribution describes how likely
it is that a continuous random variable takes values
within certain ranges.
• The probability associated with any one particular value is
equal to 0
– Therefore, P(X=x) = 0
– Also, P(X ≥ x) = P(X > x)
– the total area under the curve is equal to one,

02/09/2025 76
Cont..
• Probability distributions for a continuous
random variable differ from discrete
distributions in several ways:
– An event can take on any value within
the range of the random variable and
not just integers
– The probability of any specific value is
zero
– Probabilities are expressed in terms of
an area under a curve (probability is
02/09/2025
measured area under the curve) 77
Cont..

• Thus, the probability that X will assume


some value in the interval enclosed by two
ranges say x1 and x2

• As a continuous variable can take an


infinite number of values, it helps to
visualize the probability distribution as a
curve and probabilities as ‘area under
02/09/2025 78
the curve’
Normal Distribution

• The ND is the most important probability


distribution in statistics.
• Frequently called the “Gaussian distribution”
or bell-shape curve.
• A normal distribution is a continuous,
symmetric, bell-shaped distribution of a
variable

02/09/2025 79
Cont..

02/09/2025 80
Cont..

• The ND is vital to statistical work, most estimation


procedures and hypothesis tests underlie ND.
• The concept of “probability of X=x” in the discrete
probability distribution is replaced by the “probability
density function f(x).

02/09/2025 81
Cont..

02/09/2025 82
Properties of the Normal Distribution

 It is a probability distribution of a continuous variable. It


extends from minus infinity( -∞) to plus infinity (+∞).
 It is uni-modal, bell-shaped and symmetrical about its mean
 The mean, the median and mode are almost equal.

 The total area under the curve about the x-axis is 1 square
unit
 The distribution is completely determined by the parameters
μ and σ.
 The curve never touches the x-axis. i.e. It is asymptotic

02/09/2025 83
Cont..
1. The mean μ tells you about location -
– Increase μ - Location shifts right

– Decrease μ – Location shifts left

– Shape is unchanged

2. The standard deviation tells you about narrowness or flatness of the bell
– Increase standard deviation - Bell flattens

• Extreme values are more likely

– Decrease standard deviation - Bell narrows

• Extreme values are less likely

– Location is unchanged
02/09/2025 84
Cont..

02/09/2025 85
Cont..
 Every random variable normally distribute with its
mean and SD, Since a normal distribution could be an
infinite number of possible values for its mean and SD,
it is impossible to tabulate the area associated for
each and every normal curve.
 Instead only a single curve for which μ = 0 and σ = 1
is tabulated.
 The curve is called the standard normal
distribution (SND).
02/09/2025 86
Standard normal distribution.

• It is a normal distribution that has a mean equal


to 0 and a SD equal to 1, and is denoted by N(0,
1).
• The main idea is to standardize all the data that
is given by using Z-scores.
• These Z-scores can then be used to find the area
(and thus the probability) under the normal
curve.
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Cont..

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Z - Transformation

• If a random variable X~N(µ,σ) then we can transform it to

a SND with the help of Z transformation

• Translate from x to the standard normal (the “z”

distribution) by subtracting the mean of x and dividing by

its standard deviation:

• Z score tells you how many standard deviations away from the mean an
individual value (x) lies
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Cont..
• This process is known as standardization and gives the
position on a normal curve with µ=0 and δ=1, i.e., the SND, Z
• A Z-score is the number of standard deviations that a given x
value is above or below the mean (µ)

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Cont..
E.g. If x is normally distributed with mean of 100
and standard deviation of 50, the z value for x =
250 is:

• This says that x = 250 is three standard deviation


(3 increments of 50 units) above the mean of 100

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Z-score/Z-value

Z-scores are important because given a Z – value


we can find out the probability of obtaining a
score larger or lower than that Z value. ( look up
the value in a z-table).

 To look up the probability of obtaining a Z-value


larger than a given value, look up the first two
digits of the Z-score in the left hand column and
then read the hundredths place across the top.
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Example
• Scores on exam are normally distributed with a mean
of 65 and standard deviation of 9. find the probability
of the scores
• A. less than 54
• B. at least 80
• C. between 70 and 86

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Solution
Given
• Mean= 65 SD= 9
A. P(X < 54)=??

= P(Z < (54-65)/9) = P(Z < -1.2222)


• Since the Z table is set up to handle only two decimal place
we round this to -1.22. then, we go to the Z table and look up
Z=-1.22. Look for -1.2 in the first column and 0.02 at the top
• There fore, the probability that X is less than 54 is the
probability that Z is less than -1.22 which gives 0.1112 or
11.12% of the score below 54.
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Cont..
B. at least 80 = P(X > 80)=??
= P(Z >(80-65)/9) = P(Z >1.67)
= 0.0475
C. between 70 and 86= p(70<x<86)??
= P(Z>(70-65)/9)= P(z>0.56)=0.2877,
from this, (P(z<0.56)= 1-P(z>0.56)=0.7123
= P(Z<(86-65)/9)= P(z<2.33)=0.0099
Then, 1-(P(z<0.56)+P(z>2.33))=0.2778
• Therefore, the probability that exam score lie between 70 and 86
is equal to 0.2778 Or 27.8% of the score were between 70 and 86

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Note that –Empirically proven

• For a normal distribution with mean and standard deviation


• About 68% (most) of the observations is contained within one
SD of the mean.
• About 95% (majority) of the probability is contained within
two SDs
• And 99% (almost all) within three SDs of the mean.

97
Cont..

98
Cont..
 General Properties of probability distribution of
continuous random variable
• P(x<a) = 1-P(x>a)
• P(x=a)=0
• P(X ≥ a) = P(X > a)

99
Cont..
NB

100
Exercise
1. Suppose that total carbohydrate intake in
12-14 year old males is normally distributed
with mean 124 g/1000 cal and SD 20 g/1000
cal.
a) What percent of boys in this age range
have carbohydrate intake above 140g/1000
cal?
b) What percent of boys in this age range
have carbohydrate intake below 90g/1000
cal?
101
Thank you!!!

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