ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222224

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0424 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   The synoptic pattern in the extended will consist of at least a
   couple of shortwave troughs traversing the southern and central
   CONUS. One such wave entering the Four Corners region Day
   4/Wednesday will encourage lee surface cyclogenesis across
   southeastern CO, and subsequently increasing west to southwesterly
   surface flow over southern NM. However, both wind speeds and RH
   should remain well below and above (respectively) critical
   thresholds limiting the overall fire weather threat. Further east,
   surface high pressure will continue to support cool/moist conditions
   in conjunction with light surface winds. As this wave moves into the
   Southern Plains Day 5/Thursday, some increasing downslope flow on
   its backside will then develop across portions of West TX.

   Another shortwave trough will quickly follow the aforementioned wave
   Day 6/Friday, moving over the southern Rockies and eventually the
   Southern Plains. An associated surface cyclone is expected to deepen
   near the High Plains of TX as this occurs. Downslope westerlies at
   the surface will accompany this low from central to southern NM,
   into west TX. Although critical probabilities appear non-zero at
   this time across West TX, considering breezy surface wind speeds, RH
   and projected fuel receptiveness are not likely to promote a
   significant fire weather threat at this time.

   ..Barnes.. 12/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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