Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
10,604
36,659
No Major Population Center in Risk Area
2 %
66,206
1,211,075
Amarillo, TX...Sioux City, IA...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
123,996
2,121,246
Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Grand Island, NE...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
8,939
32,390
No Major Population Center in Risk Area
15 %
69,994
1,202,519
Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Grand Island, NE...Clovis, NM...Kearney, NE...
5 %
187,530
6,830,637
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
SPC AC 241629
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from
mid-afternoon through evening, over parts of the central Plains into
the southern High Plains, with other strong to severe storms
possible across the Mid-Atlantic States.
...Central Plains to southern Minnesota/northern Iowa...
A southwest/northeast-oriented front has generally stalled across
the region, with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints near and
southeast of this front. A northeastward-moving shortwave
trough/speed max will at least glancingly influence the frontal zone
by around peak heating. Front aside, a lingering outflow
boundary/zone of differential heating to the northeast of a
southeast Colorado surface low and near/southeast of the synoptic
front may be a particular focus for intense storm development later
this afternoon across western Kansas.
Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist in vicinity of the
front/outflow to support a mixed mode of multicell clusters and
supercells as storms develop during the mid to late afternoon. Large
hail/damaging winds will be possible, and some tornado potential
will also exist, particularly in vicinity of the western Kansas
boundary late this afternoon/early evening. As the low-level jet
increases this evening, modest upscale-type storm organization may
occur across western toward west-central/north-central Kansas, while
additional late-night development is also plausible from far eastern
Colorado into northern Kansas/far southern Nebraska, with at least
some continued potential for locally severe hail/wind.
...Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across the higher
terrain of the Texas Trans-Pecos and along the front/dryline from
southeast New Mexico into the western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles late
this afternoon. Semi-steep mid-level lapse rates atop the western
periphery of upper 50s/low 60s F surface dewpoints will support
upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating.
Low/mid-tropospheric winds will be relatively weak (20 kt or less)
but ample instability will support some intense multicells,
including the possibility of upscale quasi-linear growth through
early/mid evening across the west/northwest Texas Plains and
southern Texas Panhandle. A combination of large hail and
severe-caliber winds can be expected.
...Central Virginia/eastern West Virginia to North Carolina...
A west/southwestward-moving backdoor cold front will influence the
region with a moist (60s F surface dewpoints) and moderately
unstable environment along and west/south of the front this
afternoon. Influenced by a subtle southeastward-moving mid-level
disturbance, initial thunderstorm development/intensification is
most probable this afternoon along the West Virginia/Virginia border
region and Blue Ridge vicinity, with storms subsequently spreading
generally southward into other parts of southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina through late afternoon and early evening. As
much as 30 kt of effective shear, maximized in the immediate
vicinity of the front, and a warm/well-mixed boundary layer will
support the possibility of isolated damaging wind gusts.
...Northern Wisconsin...
The region will be influenced by steady height falls and
strengthening southwesterly winds aloft in advance of the upper
trough centered over the Canadian Prairies and northern High
Plains/Dakotas. A warm front will continue to spread northward
across the northern half of Wisconsin toward the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. A regional maximization of modest destabilization and
somewhat stronger deep-layer/low-level shear should occur across
northwest Wisconsin in vicinity of the warm front, where some
transient supercells will be possible late this afternoon and early
evening.
..Guyer/Bunting.. 05/24/2021
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