SPC AC 071630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

   Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NE
   INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
   OK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Significant severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of the
   central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Very
   large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible.

   ...Eastern WY...Northeast CO...NE...Northern KS...
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough continues to move through the
   northern Rockies, accompanied by 50-60 kt jet at 500 mb. Large-scale
   ascent coupled with low-level upslope flow is expected to result in
   initiation over the higher terrain, before then moving eastward into
   High Plains and eventually more of NE/KS. An initially cellular mode
   should give way to one or more bowing segments with time. Long
   hodographs amid modest buoyancy favor splitting supercells early,
   with an attendant threat for large to very large hail. Thereafter,
   upscale growth will contribute to a transition to more of a severe
   wind risk. A weak frontal zone will result in a corridor more
   favorable for southeast progression, with the convective line
   expected to track from the NE Panhandle southeastward into central
   NE and north-central/northeast KS. Given the strength of the flow
   aloft, the development of a well-organized convective line with a
   robust rear-inflow jet is possible. As a result, some significant
   severe gusts (i.e. greater than 74 mph) are possible.

   ...South-central High Plains into OK...
   Thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the higher terrain
   of southeast CO and northeast NM, before then moving eastward into
   the southern Plains. Large hail and strong wind gusts are possible
   with this initially more cellular activity. Potential exists for
   these storms to then grow upscale, into a more organized convective
   line (a solution that is favored by several CAMs). However, capping
   downstream across the TX Panhandle introduces uncertainty regarding
   the overall maintenance of any line that does develop. If a
   convective line does not develop, warm-air advection storms appear
   likely overnight into early tomorrow morning across
   central/northeast OK. Given all of these factors,
   slight-risk-equivalent probabilities were extended eastward to
   coverage the severe potential into more of OK.  

   ...Western AR into Western TN...
   Ongoing convective cluster has weaken somewhat over the past hour or
   so (as discussed in more detail in MCD #1069). Expectation is for
   the MCV associated with this cluster to continue eastward across AR
   and into more of the Mid-South. Modest diurnal destabilization is
   anticipated ahead of this MCV, with the expectation for at least
   scattered thunderstorms to develop near and ahead of it. Much of
   this region is south of the stronger flow aloft, but ample low-level
   moisture will still support robust updrafts and a few multicells
   capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail.

   ...TN Valley...Central/Upper OH Valley...Western NY...
   Recent visible satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across
   much of the OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Lower Great Lakes
   in association with a low-amplitude shortwave trough currently
   moving through the central OH Valley/Lower MI. An associated surface
   low precedes this shortwave and is currently centered over eastern
   ON, with an attendant cold front extending back southwestward
   through western OH, southern IN, and southern IL. Given the ongoing
   cloud coverage and showers, destabilization ahead of the front will
   likely be tempered somewhat. Even so, some diurnal destabilization
   is still likely, with isolated to scattered storms still expected
   ahead of the front. Enhanced mid-level flow accompanies this
   shortwave, so a few more organized/robust thunderstorms capable of
   damaging wind gusts are possible. An isolated instance or two of
   hail may also occur.

   ..Mosier/Moore.. 06/07/2022

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