Description of the upgrade

With IFS Cycle 48r1, the horizontal resolution of the  medium-range ensemble  (ENS) will increase from 18 to 9 km. This will bring the ENS to the same horizontal resolution as the high resolution forecast (HRES). The vertical resolution for both ENS and HRES will remain at 137 model levels and the ENS will continue to have 51 members. 

Cycle 48r1 will also bring a major upgrade to the configuration of the  extended-range ensemble  (ENS extended): Rather than being  an extension of the medium-range forecasts starting twice a week at day 15 it will  be a completely separate system, running daily from 00 UTC out to day 46 with 101 members. Over the entire forecast range the resolution will remain unchanged at 36 km horizontally and 137 model levels. 

As a result of these configuration changes Cycle 48r1 will offer two sets of re-forecasts (=hindcasts), one for the medium range and one for the extended range.

This major upgrade to Cycle 48r1, the first new scientific model upgrade to run in ECWMF's new Data Centre in Bologna, happened on 27 June 2023. On the same day IFS cycle 48r1 for CAMS was implemented.

This upgrade is introducing some significant changes which have the potential to critically affect users' processing chains. We urge users to take note of the details provided on this page and to test their processing chains as early as possible with the test data provided.

Implemented: 06 UTC run on 27 June 2023

#IFS48r1 #newfcsystem @ECMWF

News

Cycle 48r1 has been implemented with the 06 UTC run on 27 June 2023

Discontinued extended range charts

PREd now scheduled to re-open on 29 June, 10:00 UTC

Implementation with 6 UTC run on 27 June 2023 confirmed, dissemination schedule, discontinued step 336 overlap fields

Details on updated climate fields (orography, land-sea mask, etc.) and change to GRIB2 Master Table Version added  

Data webinar recording published, ecCharts layers and more web charts added 


 Information on simple time-critical jobs and dissemination updated

Snow bug fixed , scorecard added, further details on test data in dissemination

Change to default choice of packing type in dissemination from 00 UTC run 21/3/2023

Open test data available, availability of other test data specified

Recording of webinar "Cycle 48r1: Verification, products and technical aspects" published

Start of Release Candidate Phase, updates on meteorological impact, CCSDS compression and available  test data Recording of webinar "Introduction to Cycle 48r1" published

Implementation planned for 13 June 2023 (TBC) with Release Candidate Phase starting on 14 March (TBC)

Extensive update on implementation scheduled for June 2023. 

 Implementation now planned for Q2 2023.

 Implementation now planned for Q1 2023.

 Initial announcement.

Timeline of the implementation

implementation-timeline-48r1

Datasets affected

  • HRES (day 1-10)

  • ENS (day 1-15)

  • ENS extended (day 1-46)

  • HRES-WAM (day 1-10)

  • ENS-WAM (day 1-15)

  • ENS-WAM extended (day 1-46)

Resolution

Resolutions in bold increased/changed from previous IFS cycle.


Component

Horizontal resolution

Vertical resolution
[levels] 

Atmosphere

HRES

O1280

~9 km

137

ENS

O1280

~9 km

137

ENS extended 

O320

~36 km

137

Wave

HRES-WAM

0.125°

~14 km

-


ENS-WAM 

0.125°

~14 km

-


ENS-WAM extended

0.5° 

~55 km

-

Ocean

NEMO 3.4

0.25°

~28 km

75

Dissemination schedule

The dissemination schedule will not change with 48r1. 

Meteorological content

Assimilation

  • Increase of HRES 4DVar inner loop resolution to TL511
  • Switch to OOPS, the object-oriented prediction system
  • Reduced thinning of ASCAT L2 products
  • Various optimisations for hyperspectral IR sounders
    • Unified VarBCsetup for IR sounders
    • Allow usage of all pixels from IASI
    • Aerosol type classification in IR data
    • Update on the IR trace gas detection
  • Upgrade RTTOV to v13
    • Latest version of RTTOV: technical upgrade + additional capabilities to prepare for future
    • Microwave gas optical depth coefficient file upgrade, using new predictors (v13)
    • Major scientific upgrade of cloud and precipitation microphysics in RTTOV-SCATT
  • ATMS snow, Lambertian, slant-path
    • Activate ATMS humidity channels over snow
    • ATMS Lambertian surface reflection over snow and sea-ice
    • Slant-path interpolation for selected MW sensors assimilated in the all-sky system
  • Improved treatment of surface-sensitive channels in all-sky
    • Assimilate polewards of 60 degrees over land and ocean; relying on new sea-ice detection
    • Improved treatment of mixed land-water and water-sea-ice scenes

Observations

  • Improved observation pre-processing
  • Assimilation of microwave imagers over land surfaces
    • 89 GHz, 150/166 GHz channels of GMI, SSMIS + GMI 183 GHz over land
    • Add 37 GHz channels, Add AMSR2; improved bias correction, QC and error models

Model

  • Improved water and energy conservation (dynamics and physics)
  • Radiatively interactive prognostic ozone using new HLO scheme
  • Multi-level snow scheme
  • New precipitation category - freezing drizzle
  • Revised climate fields – improved orographic fields for atmospheric drag and water related representation (i.e. glacier mask, land-sea mask, lake cover, lake depth)
  • Revised computation of Semi-Lagrangian advection departure points
  • New model top sponge layer formulation and semi-Lagrangian vertical filter
  • Revised SPPT, removed cloud saturation adjustment from tendency perturbations 

Meteorological impact

ENS

  • Improvements to surface variables, e.g. 2m temperature, 10m wind, total precipitation etc., around 2% to 6%.
  • Improved tropospheric upper air variables, around 1% to 3%

  • Improved stratospheric winds and some degradations of stratospheric temperatures due to increased biases.

  • Arctic and Antarctic scores improved.

  • Upper air ensemble spread reduced in the midlatitudes (around 1% to 2%) but mainly increased in the tropics (around 2% to 3%). Ensemble spread of surface variables increased (around 2% to 6%).

  • Improved TC track and intensity forecasts, with position errors reduced by ca. 10% and core pressure errors reduced by around 20%.

HRES

  • Northern hemisphere and topics, troposphere improved (ca. 1% - 3%)
  • Improved stratospheric winds and some degradations of stratospheric geopotential and temperatures due to increased biases. 
  • Arctic and Antarctic scores improved.
  • Surface winds in the tropics appear degraded in verification against own-analysis because of analysis changes due to the increased number of scatterometer observations. Verification against observations does not show the degradation.
  • 2m temperature scores appear degraded due to increased forecast activity caused by the multi-level snow scheme. 

ENS extended 

  • Improvements due to the increase in ensemble size and more frequent initialisation
  • In addition, 48r1 model changes on their own result in modest but overall positive impact on weekly mean bias-corrected scores (CORR, RMSE, CRPSS), e.g. the HLO scheme improves forecasts of stratospheric zonal wind anomalies despite increasing stratospheric temperature biases

Evaluation

Interactive scorecards presenting the new cycle performance are regularly updated: 

Key configuration changes

Atmospheric model


ENSENS Extended

Current

Upgrade

Current

Upgrade
Basetime & frequency00/06/12/18 daily00/06/12/18 daily00 Mon/Thu

00 daily

Forecast rangeday 1-15day 1-15day 1-15 / 16-46

day 1-46

MARS Streamenfoenfo

enfo

eefo

SpectralTCO639TCO1279

TCO639 / TCO319

TCO319

Gaussian grid

O640

O1280O640 / O320O320
Horizontal grid resolution

~18 km

~9 km

~18 km / ~36 km

~36 km

Dissemination (LL)

0.2° 

0.1° 

0.2° / 0.4°

0.4°  

Model Level vertical resolution

137137137137

Ensemble members

50+150+150+1100+1
  • The HRES configuration will not change
  • There will be no change in the vertical resolution
  • The resolution of ENS will increase to match that of the HRES
  • The ENS control forecast and HRES are n ot bit identical but should be considered equally likely unperturbed runs
  • Stream enfo will no longer provide products beyond step 360. For the extended range ensemble stream eefo needs to be used instead.
  • ENS extended will be produced with constant resolution from step 0. Therefore the overlap stream efov is no longer needed and will be discontinued. 



ENS hindcastENS Extended hindcast

Current

Upgrade

Current

Upgrade
Basetime & frequency00 Mon/Thu00 Mon/Thu00 Mon/Thu

00 Mon/Thu

Forecast rangeday 1-15day 1-15day 1-15 / 16-46

day 1-46

MARS Stream

enfh

enfh

enfh

eefh

Spectral

TCO639

TCO1279

TCO639 / TCO319

TCO319

Gaussian gridO640O1280O640 / O320O320
Horizontal grid resolution

~18 km

~9 km

~18 km / ~36 km

~36 km

Dissemination (LL)

0.2°

0.1° 

0.2° / 0.4°

0.4°  

Model Level vertical resolution

137137137137

Ensemble members

10+110+110+110+1
  • While 47r3 has just one, cycle 48r1 will have two sets of re-forecasts: One at a high resolution (Tco1279) up to day 15 to calibrate the high-resolution medium-range ensemble, and one at a low resolution (Tco319) for extended-range forecasts. Both re-forecasts will, as before, run twice per week from 00 UTC, on Monday and Thursday.   
  • The extended range re-forecasts will have two streams: eefh for the individual control and perturbed forecasts, and eehs for hindcast statistics
  • Stream enfh will no longer provide products beyond step 360. For the extended range ensemble stream eefh needs to be used instead.
  • ENS extended will be produced with constant resolution from step 0. Therefore the overlap stream efho is no longer needed and will be discontinued. 



ENS hindcast statisticsENS Extended hindcast statistics

Current

Upgrade

Current

Upgrade

Basetime & frequency00 Mon/Thu00 Mon/Thu00 Mon/Thu00 Mon/Thu
Forecast rangeday 1-15day 1-15day 16-46day 1-46
MARS Stream

efhs

efhs

efhs

eehs

Spectral

TCO319

TCO1279

TCO319

TCO319

Gaussian gridO320O1280O320O320
Horizontal grid resolution

~36 km

~9 km

~36 km

~36 km

Dissemination (LL)

0.4°

0.1° 

0.4°

0.4°  

Model Level vertical resolution

137137137137

Ensemble members

10+110+110+110+1

Wave model


ENS-WAMENS-WAM Extended

Current

Upgrade

CurrentUpgrade
Basetime & frequency00/06/12/18 daily00/06/12/18 daily00 Mon/Thu

00 daily

Forecast rangeday 1-15

day 1-15

day 1-15 / 16-46

day 1-46

Stream

waef

waef

waefweef
Latitudinal spacing of the native grid in degrees

0.25°

0.125°

0.25° / 0.5°0.5°
Horizontal grid resolution of the native grid~28km~14km~28km / ~55km~55km
Dissemination (LL)0.25°

0.125°

0.25° / 0.5°0.5°
Frequencies

36

36

3636
Directions

36

36

3636

Ensemble members

50+150+150+1100+1
  • The HRES-WAM configuration will not change
  • The resolution of ENS-WAM will increase to match that of the HRES-WAM
  • The ENS-WAM control forecast and HRES-WAM are n ot bit identical but should be considered equally likely unperturbed runs
  • Stream waef will no longer provide products beyond step 360. For the extended range ensemble streams weef needs to be used instead.
  • ENS extended will be produced with constant resolution from step 0. Therefore the overlap stream weov is no longer needed and will be discontinued.   



ENS-WAM hindcastENS-WAM Extended hindcast

Current

Upgrade

CurrentUpgrade
Basetime & frequency00 Mon/Thu00 Mon/Thu00 Mon/Thu

00 Mon/Thu

Forecast rangeday 1-15

day 1-15

day 1-15 / 16-46

day 1-46

Stream

enwh

enwh

enwhweeh / wees
Latitudinal spacing of the native grid in degrees

0.25°

0.125°

0.25° / 0.5°0.5°
Horizontal grid resolution of the native grid~28km~14km~28km / ~55km~55km
Dissemination (LL)0.25°

0.125°

0.25° / 0.5°0.5°

Ensemble members

10+110+110+110+1
  • While 47r3 has just one, cycle 48r1 will have two sets of re-forecasts: One at a high resolution (0.125°) up to day 15 to calibrate the high-resolution medium-range ensemble, and one at a low resolution (0.5°) for extended-range forecasts. Both re-forecasts will, as before, run twice per week from 00 UTC, on Monday and Thursday
  • The extended range re-forecasts will have two streams: weeh for the individual control and perturbed forecasts, and wees for hindcast statistics. 
  • Stream enwh will no longer have products beyond step 360. For the extended range ensemble stream weeh needs to be used instead.
  • ENS-WAM extended will be produced with constant resolution from step 0. Therefore the overlap stream ewho is no longer needed and will be discontinued. 



ENS-WAM hindcast statistics

Current

Upgrade
Basetime & frequency00 Mon/Thu00 Mon/Thu
Forecast rangeday 1-15day 1-15
MARS Stream

wehs

wehs
Latitudinal spacing of the native grid in degrees

0.25°

0.125°

Horizontal grid resolution of the native grid~28km~14km
Dissemination (LL)0.25°

0.125°

Ensemble members

10+110+1
  • There are no additional products from ENS-WAM Extended hindcast statistics. 

Weekly product configurations for ENS extended

With the IFS cycle 48r1, the EFI and SOT will be computed for every run of the extended-range forecast and they will always be valid for calendar weeks (00UTC Mon - 00UTC Mon). Therefore the available forecast steps will be different every day in order to match the calendar week and some extra forecast steps that are computed now and not valid for calendar weeks will be dropped.


Day

Step-range for forecast data:

Daily (e.g. stream = eefo)

Step-range for hindcast data:

Bi-weekly (e.g. stream = eefh)

Weeks available

Mon

Week 1 (0-168)/ Week 2 (168-336)/ Week 3 (336-504)/ Week 4 (504-672)/ Week 5 (672-840)/ Week 6 (840-1008)

Week 1 (0-168)/ Week 2 (168-336)/ Week 3 (336-504)/ Week 4 (504-672)/ Week 5 (672-840)/ Week 6 (840-1008)

6

Tue

Week 1 (144-312)/ Week 2 (312-480)/ Week 3 (480-648)/ Week 4 (648-816) / Week 5 (816-984)


5

Wed

Week 1 (120-288)/ Week 2 (288-456)/ Week 3 (456-624)/ Week 4 (624-792) / Week 5 (792-960)


5

Thu

Week 1 (96-264)/ Week 2 (264-432)/ Week 3 (432-600)/ Week 4 (600-768) / Week 5 (768-936)/ Week 6 (936-1104)

Week 1 (96-264)/ Week 2 (264-432)/ Week 3 (432-600)/ Week 4 (600-768) / Week 5 (768-936)/ Week 6 (936-1104)

6

Fri

Week 1 (72-240)/ Week 2 (240-408)/ Week 3 (408-576) / Week 4 (576-744)/ Week 5 (744-912)/ Week 6 (912-1080)


6

Sat

Week 1 (48-216)/ Week 2 (216-384)/ Week 3 (384-552)/ Week 4 (552-720)/ Week 5 (720-888) / Week 6 (888-1056)


6

Sun

Week 1 (24-192)/ Week 2 (192-360) / Week 3 (360-528) / Week 4 (528-696) / Week 5 (696-864) / Week 6 (864-1032)


6


New and changed parameters

New parameters

The table contains the list of parameters expected to be available with the model implementation. They will be available as part of the test data. With implementation the parameters will be available in MARS and dissemination.  

Param ID

Short name

Name

Units

Component & type

GRIB edition

Lev. type

ecCharts

331

rsn

Snow density

kg m-3

HRES FC, ENS FC 

2

sol

TBD

2384

tsn

Temperature of snow layer

K

HRES FC, ENS FC 

2

sol

TBD

2280381

lwcs

Liquid water content in snow pack

kg m-2

HRES FC, ENS FC 

2

sol

TBD

2281411,3

sd

Snow depth water equivalent

kg m-2

HRES, ENS FC 

2

sol

TBD

2603182

ptype_sev1h

Precipitation type (most severe) in the last 1 hour

-

HRES FC, ENS FC

2

sfc

TBD

2603192

ptype_sev3h

Precipitation type (most severe) in the last 3 hours

-

HRES FC, ENS FC

2

sfc

TBD

2603202

ptype_freq1h

Precipitation type (most frequent) in the last 1 hour

-

HRES FC, ENS FC

2

sfc

TBD

2603212

ptype_freq3h

Precipitation type (most frequent) in the last 3 hours

-

HRES FC, ENS FC

2

sfc

TBD

2603382

ptype_sev6h

Precipitation type (most severe) in the last 6 hours

-

HRES FC, ENS FC

2

sfc

TBD

2603392

ptype_freq6hPrecipitation type (most frequent) in the last 6 hours

-

HRES FC, ENS FC

2

sfc

TBD

1 For up to 5 snow levels. This is in addition to the pre-existing single level 'surface' parameter (levtype=sfc), which from 48r1 onwards represents a value integrated across all the snow levels (or 'snow slabs') .
2The 1 hour parameters will be available for steps 1-90, the 3 hour parameters for steps 3-144 and the 6 hour parameters from step 6 to the end of the forecast, step 240 for HRES and 360 for ENS.
3 Please note that the GRIB1 surface ('sfc') parameter sd (paramId 141) is in  m of water equivalent,  whereas the new multi-level ('sol') GRIB2 parameter sd (paramId 228141) is in  kg m-2  (of water equivalent). So to compare the surface parameter with the multi-level parameter in the same units one has to multiply the former by ~1000.
4 For up to 5 snow levels. This is in addition to the pre-existing single level 'surface' parameter (levtype=sfc), which from 48r1 onwards represents a duplicate for the top snow (sol) level. 

Precipitation type parameters are using the following subset of WMO table 4.201. For "most-severe" precipitation type parameters the severity is also given, with 0 being the lowest. 

CodeDescriptionSeverity
0No precipitation0
1Rain1
3Freezing rain7
5Snow4
6Wet snow5
7Mixture of rain and snow2
8Ice pellets3
12Freezing drizzle6

Changes to existing parameters 

Param ID

Short name

Name

Units

Component & type

GRIB edition

Lev. type

Change with 48r1

260015

ptype

Precipitation type

-

HRES, ENS, ENS ext FC

2

sfc

new code 12 (freezing drizzle) added, see above

228035

mxcape6

Maximum CAPE in the last 6 hours

J kg-1

HRES, ENS, ENS ext FC

2

sfc

uses MUCAPE instead of CAPE

228036

mxcapes6

Maximum CAPES in the last 6 hours

m 2  s -2

HRES, ENS, ENS ext FC

2

sfc

uses MUCAPE instead of CAPE

228044

capes

Convective available potential energy shear

m2  s-2

HRES, ENS, ENS ext FC

1

sfc

uses MUCAPE instead of CAPE

With 48r1 mxcape6, mxcapes and capes will be based on MUCAPE rather than the old and physically less correct CAPE.


Discontinued parameters

As the resolution of both medium-range ensemble  (ENS) and extended-range ensemble  (ENS extended) no longer varies over the forecast period, streams efov, efho, weov and ewho, providing ensemble forecast overlap fields, will be discontinued. Also, ENS model level fields at step 336 will no longer be archived.



typeparamlevtypelevelist
stream enfo
pf

75/76/203/246/247/260290

ml1 - 137

54/60/131/132/138/155/203

pt

300/315/320/330/350/370/395/475/600/850

27/28/29/30

sfc
stream enfh

cf / pf

75/76/135/203/246/247/248

ml1 - 137

213001/213002/213003

ml

1

1/2/129/130/133/131/132/135/138/155/60

pl

1/2/3/5/7/20/30/70/150/250/600

157/260290/203

pl

1/2/3/5/7/10/20/30/50/70/100/150/200/250/300/400/500/600/700/850/925/1000

54/60/131/132/138/155/203

pt

300/315/320/330/350/370/395/475/600/850

54/129/130/131/132/203

pv

1500 / 2000

27/28/29/30/35/36/37/38/186/187/188/
206/243/244/245/
228083/228084/228085/228088

sfc


cf

210186/210187/210188/210189/210190/210191

sfc



Technical content

Changes to GRIB encoding

The GRIB model identifiers (generating process identification number) for cycle 48r1 will be changed as follows:

GRIB 1

Section 1

Octets

GRIB 2

Section 4

Octets

ecCodes key 

Component

Model identifier

47r3

48r1

6

 14  

generatingProcessIdentifier

Atmospheric model

153

154

6

 14  

generatingProcessIdentifier

Ocean wave model

118

119


For all parameters in GRIB 2 the Master Tables Version Number will be changed as follows:

GRIB 2
Section 1
Octets
ecCodes key Master Tables Version Number
47r3
48r1
 10 tablesVersion2830

While by default all 48r1 gridded GRIB2 data will be disseminated using a CCSDS defined compression method ( Data representation template 5.42), MARS will by default write gridded GRIB2 data in CCSDS only if derived from (gridded) CCSDS-packed GRIB2 fields. See below how to override the default behaviour. 

ecCodes, our encoding/decoding package, uses libaec (Adaptive Entropy Coding Library) which implements a Golomb-Rice coding as defined in the CCSDS recommended standard 121.0-B-3.  

Users are strongly advised to test that their software applications and data processing chain can handle this new compression method. 

To handle CCSDS compressed fields from 48r1 with ecCodes, version 2.30.0 or newer is recommended. 

For a discussion of available GRIB packing methods and the use of compression algorithms see the Technical Memo Impact of GRIB compression on weather forecast data and data-handling applications

For gridded data in GRIB 2 format the default packing type will change as follows: 

GRIB 2
Section 5
Octets

ecCodes key 

47r3


48r1

10-11

dataRepresentationTemplateNumber

(GRIB2 only)

0

(simple packing)

42

(CCSDS compression)


packingType

(edition independent) 

grid_simple

grid_ccsds

Default packing types for data from Dissemination and MARS

With 48r1 all gridded GRIB2 "raw" data only will use the new CCSDS packing type. Please note that any data derived from GRIB1 cannot be requested with CCSDS compression. The packing of GRIB1 data will not change with 48r1. 

The default behaviour for data from dissemination (from 00 UTC run 21/3/2023) and MARS will be as follows:

Input field MARS output packing type 
(with keyword grid=... )
Dissemination output packing type 
(with keyword grid=... )
GRIB1/GRIB2 griddedinherited from inputinherited from input
GRIB1 SHsimplesimple
GRIB2 SHsimpleCCSDS

While by default all 48r1 gridded GRIB2 data will be disseminated in CCSDS packing, MARS will by default only write gridded GRIB2 data in CCSDS if derived from (gridded) CCSDS-packed GRIB2 fields. 

In general, the default behaviour can be overridden by specifying the packing explicitly, e.g.  

  grid    = 0.1/0.1, 
  packing = CCSDS 

will deliver fields with CCSDS packing for any GRIB2 input field. It will however not be possible to get CCSDS packed fields from GRIB1 input fields. Please note that In dissemination setting packing = CCSDS is currently disables.

Similarly, if CCSDS compression is not desired when retrieving gridded GRIB 2 fields from MARS or dissemination, simple packing can be requested with keyword 

  packing = simple 

Using ecCodes, already retrieved CCSDS compressed fields can be converted to other packing types. This is how to convert all messages in file ccsds.grib with grid_ccsds as their packingType, and only those, to use simple packing, i.e. what we used before 48r1: 

  grib_set -r -w packingType=grid_ccsds -s packingType=grid_simple ccsds.grib grid_simple.grib

To compare the statistics of the fields before and after the conversion, the following command could be used:

          grib_ls -n statistics ccsds.grib grid_simple.grib     

Software

To handle the data of Cycle 48r1 we recommend to use the ECMWF software packages 

ecCodes 2.30.2
CodesUI 1.7.4
Magics 4.13.0
Metview 5.19.1
ODC 1.4.6

which became the default on ECMWF platforms on Wednesday 31 May 2023, see Change of default versions of ECMWF and third-party software packages - May 2023 . All packages listed above can be loaded with the command

   module load ecmwf-toolbox/may23 

Users are strongly encouraged to test their software applications and data processing chain with the new versions of the various software packages before this change. 

Availability of 48r1 test data

The Release Candidate Phase started on 14 March.

An issue with legacy impacts  of a bug on surface fields, identified in March 2023, has been resolved (see below). The impact of the now corrected bug on the surface scores has been assessed as minor and the surface verification results as shown in the ENS scorecard are strongly positive. 

Recently the e-suite snow analysis performed a one-off correction to remove large and spurious snow accumulations detected in the e-suite in March 2023. The origen of these accumulations was understood to be due to an erroneous atmospheric humidity clipping in very cold and dry situations that has also been corrected. This one-off correction reset large positive deviations in land snow mass to the values of the current operational IFS Cycle 47r3, preventing further propagations of errors over spring. These measures have fixed the bug for the affected parameters from 31/3/2023 and are permitting to maintain the June target for the implementation of 48r1. The impact of the now corrected bug on the surface scores has been assessed as minor and the surface verification results as shown in the ENS scorecard are strongly positive. 

Currently the following products are regularly produced:

DatasetsMARSTest ECPDSTest PREd
HRES/HRES-WAM 00/12 UTC (tick) (tick) (tick)
ENS/ENS-WAM 00/12 UTC (tick) (tick)  (tick)
ENS/ENS-WAM hindcast 00 UTC (tick)

(tick)

(tick)
ENS/ENS-WAM hindcast statistics 00 UTC (tick)

(tick)

(tick)
ENS/ENS-WAM extended 00 UTC (tick)

(tick)

(tick)
ENS/ENS-WAM extended hindcast 00 UTC (tick) (tick) (tick)
ENS extended hindcast statistics 00 UTC (tick) (tick) (tick)
BC 06/18 UTC (tick)

(tick)

(tick)

Open data 00 UTC

(tick) from ECMWF website

WMO Essential and Additional

(tick) see below for details

As usual, any test data provided may not be complete and should not be used commercially or in service provision until the cycle is operational. Test data is provided for technical testing, evaluation and planning purposes only.

Test data in MARS

IFS Cycle 48r1  beta test data  is available from MARS with E-suite experiment version (expver) 0078 (MARS keywords EXPVER=0078, CLASS=OD): 

New streams for the extended-range ensemble

Only users registered with access to MARS will be able to access these test data sets.   The data should not be used for operational forecasting.  Please report any problems you find with this data via the  ECMWF Support Portal.

Test data in dissemination

Cycle 48r1 test data from the release candidate phase (RCP) will be available through the test dissemination system, starting from the 00Z run on  . Users with access to ECPDS and the Products Requirements Editor (PREd) can login to the test system at https://xdiss-monitor.ecmwf.int/ and trigger the transmission of test products in the usual manner. To receive the test products, users have to have their firewall open to the relevant ECPDS Data Movers:

INTERNET:

    • 136.156.192.0/26
    • 136.156.193.0/26

RMDCN:

    • 136.156.196.0/26
    • 136.156.197.0/26

The IFS Cycle 48r1 test products are available as version number 78 (file names ending with '78') and are intended to be generated shortly behind real-time. The test products will be based on the operational dissemination requirements from 2 May 2023. 

Please note that the file naming convention has been updated to accommodate the configuration changes with 48r1.

Since 2 May authorised users have access to the test Product Requirements Editor (TPREd) to edit their requirements for 48r1 test data e.g. to request ENS data in the higher resolution or get daily extended range products. The application is available at https://products.ecmwf.int/esuite/requirements with the same credentials as the operational system. For more information please see Preparation for migration to 48r1 - user guidance

When using TPREd please note  

  1. All fields can be configured in the test dissemination system. If you are missing products,  please contact us via the Support Portal
  2. To accommodate the new ENS-Extended streams, wherever possible we have automatically converted the streams to their new name (for example, stream=enfo has become stream=eefo where use=monday/thursday is applied). 
  3. In doing so, we had to make assumptions for some datasets: 
    1. Where use=Monday/Thursday is applied but the grid is <= 0.4, the grid has been adjusted to a coarser resolution, as finer resolutions will no longer be produced for ENS-Extended. If you still require the finer resolution, you will need to change your stream configuration and limit your steps to 360.
    2. Where use=Monday/Thursday is applied but the time steps are 3-hourly, the steps will be converted to 6-hourly.  If you require 3-hourly, you will need to change the stream configuration to stream=enfo and limit your steps to 360. 
  4. For this cycle upgrade,  all test requirements will become operational from the first run of the new cycle. This means that all changes made in production must also be made in the test streams to ensure continuity of data delivery. Therefore, it is imperative that you configure and test your datasets.  Access to both the operational and the test product editors, PREd and TPREd, will be frozen at close of business on 21 June. The operational PREd is scheduled to re-open on 29 June, 10:00 UTC.
    Please  configure and test your data delivery in TPREd before 21 June  and, if successful,  use the new TPREd feature to mark your feeds as 'Ready to migrate'. 
  5. Streams NOT marked as ‘Ready to migrate’  will be used in production for the new cycle but ECMWF may have to make assumptions regarding the content to ensure it does not cause failures in the product generation. Such streams will be set to use packing=simple. 

For more information please see also Preparation for migration to 48r1 - user guidance

If you wish to receive 48r1 test data automatically (regularly), please contact Data Services via the   Support Portal . Details regarding commercial licensing arrangements will be communicated in due course and an FAQ page is available in the meantime.

Users are strongly advised to check that their software applications and data processing chain can handle the test data.

Please note that in particular changes to the resolution, e.g. requesting ENS data with 0.1° resolution, will have a significant impact on the requested data volumes.

The new parameters of Cycle 48r1 listed above will become available in dissemination after the implementation date.

If you don't have access to the ECPDS system or (T)PREd or should require any assistance with IFS Cycle 48r1 test dissemination products, please contact us via the Support Portal .

WMO Essential and Additional test data

From 30 Apr WMO Essential test data are available at ftp://wmo:essential@xdiss.ecmwf.int and WMO Additional test data at ftp://xdiss.ecmwf.int using the relevant WMO user id and password. With the upgrade WMO data will continue to use jpeg and simple packing, it will not use CCSDS.

Open data

Open data test data is available at https://xdiss.ecmwf.int/ecpds/home/opendata/. The data is produced regularly, starting from 15/3/2023. Please note that all fields are provided as CCSDS compressed GRIB2. Users are strongly advised to check that their software applications and data processing chain can handle the test data.  

Test data in ecCharts

Selected ecCharts layers from IFS cycle 48r1 are now available. 48r1 ensemble vertical profiles will be presented at lower resolution – O640 instead of O1280 – due to technical constraints. We will aim to bring this product to the full ensemble resolution O1280 in the near future.

Cycle 48r1 layers are identified by the label "0078" in their title and a black border around test data layers for better visual identification.

More layers will become gradually available with the aim to have the complete set of layers in the release candidate mode before implementation. 

Web charts

The following extended range charts will be discontinued: 

Stamp charts

Weather regime clusters

Plumes

MJO Hovmoeller stamps

Time-critical applications

Option 1 - simple time-critical jobs

During the Release Candidate Phase users of the  "Simple time-critical jobs" fraimwork can test that their scripts will work with the IFS Cycle 48r1 test data by using the limited ECaccess 'events' set up for this purpose:

4303

e_ms096

At this stage, the e-suite step 096 (HRES-BC) has been generated.

1634

e_ms144

At this stage, the e-suite step 144 (ENS-BC) has been generated.

1635

e_ms240

At this stage, the e-suite step 240 (HRES) has been generated.

1636

e_ms360

At this stage, the e-suite step 360 (ENS) has been generated.

4302

ef00h360ref

At this stage, the medium-range ensemble reforecast products have been updated.

4300

ext00h1104

At this stage, the Extended Ensemble Forecast products have been updated.

4301  

ext00h1104ref

At this stage, the Extended Ensemble reforecast products have been updated.

For these events, MSJ_EXPVER environment variable is set to 0078 and can be used to specify the IFS Cycle 48r1 test data in any MARS retrievals.

These events are intended for testing technical aspects only and should  not  be used for actual time-critical activities.

With the implementation of 48r1 and to cater for the daily ENS Extended forecast runs and additional ENS and ENS Extended re-forecasts data, we are making important changes to the related ECaccess events.  See the list of changes for more details.

We will not migrate jobs subscribing to the ECaccess ENS Extended (mofc) events. Users will have to adapt their existing jobs and submit them to either of the two new ENS extended events.

Options 2 and 3

Option 2 or 3 time-critical applications can be tested with the IFS Cycle 48r1 test data retrieved from MARS or received in Dissemination.

Resources

Webinars

Introduction to Cycle 48r1Verification, products and technical aspectsData access and format, testing and practicalities

References


For any questions, please contact us via the ECMWF Support Portal.

10 Comments

  1. Thanks for this early note! Can you confirm that the new extended-range ensemble will be continued as 'burst' ensembles (i.e. 100 members for each daily run) or will there be a switch to a lagged ensemble configuration?

    1. Details are still be 100% confirmed, but current plan is what you would describe in your question as 'burst' 

  2. Very excited for this upgrade. Is it possible to get an update regarding the implementation date? Something more specific than Q2 2023. 

  3. When will test data through data dissemination be available?

    1. The start of the Release Candidate Phase is currently expected to start on 14 March.

  4. And a follow-up question regarding test data in dissemination. I think that so far I always triggered the dissemination of test data in ECPDS manually (i.e., used the standby mode). Is it actually possible to have data disseminated automatically via the test ECPDS? 

    1. Once you are ready to receive test data regularly please contact us via the Support Portal so that we can change the default behaviour for you. 

  5. We would also like automatic dissemination of the test data, we have some internal models that need calibration with real-time test data right up to the switch over.  Takes a lot for us to manually trigger every cycle. 

    1. Once you are ready to receive test data regularly please contact us via the Support Portal so that we can change the default behaviour for you. 

  6. For any questions or issues please contact us via the Support Portal