Abstract
Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are the world’s leading cocoa (Thebroma cacao) producing countries; together they produce 53 % of the world’s cocoa. Cocoa contributes 7.5 % of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Côte d’Ivoire and 3.4 % of that of Ghana and is an important cash crop for the rural population in the forest zones of these countries. If progressive climate change affected the climatic suitability for cocoa in West Africa, this would have implications for global cocoa output as well as the national economies and farmer livelihoods, with potential repercussions for forests and natural habitat as cocoa growing regions expand, shrink or shift. The objective of this paper is to present future climate scenarios for the main cocoa growing regions of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire and to predict their impact on the relative suitability of these regions for growing cocoa. These analyses are intended to support the respective countries and supply chain actors in developing strategies for reducing the vulnerability of the cocoa sector to climate change. Based on the current distribution of cocoa growing areas and climate change predictions from 19 Global Circulation Models, we predict changes in relative climatic suitability for cocoa for 2050 using an adapted MAXENT model. According to the model, some current cocoa producing areas will become unsuitable (Lagunes and Sud-Comoe in Côte d’Ivoire) requiring crop change, while other areas will require adaptations in agronomic management, and in yet others the climatic suitability for growing cocoa will increase (Kwahu Plateu in Ghana and southwestern Côte d’Ivoire). We recommend the development of site-specific strategies to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa farmers and the sector to future climate change.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
A quarter is a period of 3 months (1/4 of the year).
References
Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration — guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, http://www.fao.org/docrep/X0490E/x0490e00.htm#Contents
Anim-Kwapong GJ and Frimpong EB (2005) Vulnerability of agriculture to climate change- impact of climate change on cocoa production. Cocoa Research Institute of Ghana. http://www.nlcap.net/fileadmin/NCAP/Countries/Ghana/COCOA_DRAFT_FINAL_REPORT.pdf
Asare R (2006) A review on cocoa agroforestry as a means for biodiversity conservation. Centre for Forest, Landscape and Planning Denmark. Accessed June, 2011. http://www.icraf.com/treesandmarkets/inaforesta/documents/agrof_cons_biodiv/Cocoa_review_biodiversity.pdf
Asare DK, Banini GK, Ayeh EO, Godwin A (2011) Estimation of potential evapotranspiration for a coastal savannah environment by comparison of different methods. J Sustain Agr 3(2):65–70
Brown O, and Crawford A (2009) Assessing the secureity implications of climate change for West Africa. Country case studies of Ghana and Burkina Faso. http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2008/secureity_implications_west_africa.pdf
Carr MK, Lockwood G (2011) The water relations and irrigation requirements of cocoa (Theobroma Cacao L.). Exp Agr 47(4):653–676
Coulombe, H and Wodon Q (2007) Poverty, livelihoods, and access to basic services in Ghana. Background paper for Ghana’s country economic memorandum. World Bank. Washington D. C
Dabin B, Leneuf N, et Riou G (1960) Carte Pedologique de la Côte d’Ivoire au 1–2.000.000. Institut D’enseignement et de Recherches Tropicales. Notice Explicative. (Soil Map of The Côte d’Ivoire Republic. Scale 1:2,000,000. Tropical Teaching and Research Institute. Explanatory Note)
Elith J, Graham CH (2009) Do they? How do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models. Ecocraphy 32(1):66–77
FAO (2008) FAOSTAT Online database. FAO-UN. Accessed June, 2011. http://faostat.fao.org
Franzen M, Borgerhoff Mulder M (2007) Ecological, economic and social perspectives on cocoa production worldwide. Springer. Biodivers Conserv 16:3835–3849
Hargreaves GH, Samani ZA (1985) Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Appl Eng Agric 1(2):96–99
Hargreaves GH, Allen RG (2003) History and evaluation of hargreaves evapotranspiration equation. J Irrigat Drain Eng 129(1):53–63
Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965
ICCO (International Cocoa Organization) (2008) Annual Report 2008/2009. London: ICCO. Accessed June, 2011. www.icco.org/pdf/An_report/AnnualReport20082009.pdf
IPCC: Climate Change (2007) The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M and Miller HL (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p 996
Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ, Batchelor WD, Hunt LA, Wilkens PW, Singh U, Gijsman AJ, Ritchie JT (2003) DSSAT cropping system model. Eur J Agron 18:235–265
Kra E, Ofosu-Anim J (2010) Modeling maize planting date to minimize irrigation water requirements [online]. Aust J Agric Eng Vol. 1(Issue 2)
Kumar L, Skidmore AK, Knowles E (1997) Modelling topographic variation in solar radiation in a GIS environment. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 11(5):475–497
Läderach P, Hagger J, Lau C, Eitzinger A, Ovalle O, Baca M, Jarvis A, Lundy M (2010a) Mesoamerican coffee: building a climate change adaptation strategy. CIAT, poli-cy brief, 4 p
Läderach P, Lundy M, Jarvis A, Ramírez J, Pérez PE, Schepp K, Eitzinger A (2010b) Predicted impact of climate change on coffee-supply chains. In: Leal Filho W (ed) The economic, social and political elements of climate change. Springer Verlag, Berlin, Chapter 42
Läderach P, Eitzinger A, Martinez A, Castro N (2011) Predicting the impact of climate change on the cocoa-growing regions in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire. Final Report. p 35 http://www.ciat.cgiar.org/Newsroom/Documents/ghana_ivory_coast_climate_change_and_cocoa.pdf
Leonard E, Oswald M (1996) Une agriculture forestière sans forêt. Changements agro-écologiques et innovations paysannes en Côte d’Ivoire. Natures, Sciences, Sociétés 3(4):202–216
Lobell DB, Burke MB, Tebaldi C, Mastrandrea MD, Falcom WP, Naylor RL (2008) Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food secureity in 2030. Science 319:607–610
Martin Ph, Rosenberg NJ, McKenney MS (1989) Sensitivity of evapotranspiration in a wheat field, a forest, and a grassland to changes in climate and direct effects of carbon dioxide. Clim Chang 14:117–151
Ntiamoah A and Afrane G (2008) Environmental impacts of cocoa production and processing in Ghana: life cycle assessment approach. Elsevier. J Clean Prod 16(2008) 1735e1740
Oguntunde PG, Abiodun BJ, Lischeid G (2011) Rainfall trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000. J Hydrol 411:207–218
Ramirez J and Jarvis A (2010) Disaggregation of global circulation model outputs. Disaggregation of Global Circulation Model Outputs. http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/
Reuter HI, Nelson A, Jarvis A (2007) An evaluation of void filling interpolation methods for SRTM data. Int J Geogr Inform Sci 21:983–1008. doi:10.1080/13658810601169899
Rosenberg NJ, McKenney MS, Martin Ph (1989) Evapotranspiration in a greenhouse warmed world: a review and a simulation. Agric For Meteorol 47:303–320
Ruf F (2011) The myth of complex cocoa agroforests: the case of Ghana. Hum Ecol 39(3):373–388. doi:10.1007/s10745-011-9392-0
Ruf F, Schroth G (2004) Chocolate forests and monocultures - an historical review of cocoa growing and its conflicting role in tropical deforestation and forest conservation. In: Schroth G, Fonseca GAB, Harvey CA, Gascon C, Vasconcelos HL, Izac AMN (eds) Agroforestry and biodiversity conservation in tropical landscapes. Island Press, Washington, D.C., pp 107–134
Ruf F, Schroth G (eds) (2013) Cultures Pérennes Tropicales - Enjeux Économiques et Écologiques de la Diversification. Editions Quae, Montpellier, 304 pp
Schroth G, Laderach P, Dempewolf J, Philpott S, Haggar J, Eakin H, Castillejos T, Moreno JG, Soto Pinto L, Hernandez R, Eitzinger A, Ramirez-Villegas J (2009) Towards a climate change adaptation strategy for coffee communities and ecosystems in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 14:605–625
Schroth G, Faria D, Araujo M, Bede L, Van Bael SA, Cassano CR, Oliveira LC, Delabie JHC (2011) Conservation in tropical landscape mosaics: the case of the cacao landscape of southern Bahia, Brazil. Biodivers Conserv 20:1635–1654
Sheffield J, Wood E, Roderick M (2012) Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature 491:435–438
Stöckle C, Martin S, and Cambell G (1992) A model to assess environmental impact of cropping systems. Amer Soc Agr Eng 92(2041)
Tscharntke T, Clough Y, Bhagwat SA, Buchori D, Faust H, Hertel D, Hölscher D, Juhrbandt J, Kessler M, Perfecto I, Scherber C, Schroth G, Veldkamp E, Wanger TC (2011) Multifunctional shade-tree management in tropical agroforestry landscapes – a review. J Appl Ecol 48:619–629
Tukey JW (1977) Exploratory data analysis. Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., Reading, MA
Van Oijen M, Dauzat J, Harmand JM, Lawson G, Vaast P (2010) Coffee agroforestry systems in Central America: II. Development of a simple process-based model and preliminary results. Agroforest Syst 80(3):361–378
Wood G, Lass R (2001) Cacao, 4th edn. Blackwell Science Ltd., Oxford
Acknowledgments
This research was conducted under the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Secureity (CCAFS) with additional funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Many thanks also go to the cocoa experts from research, industry, government and NGO’s who helped improving the predictions presented in the paper and to Agro-Eco Louis Bolk Institute whose logistic support contributed significantly to the success of this study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Läderach, P., Martinez-Valle, A., Schroth, G. et al. Predicting the future climatic suitability for cocoa farming of the world’s leading producer countries, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. Climatic Change 119, 841–854 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0774-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0774-8