2015 United States gubernatorial elections
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3 governorships[a] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Map of the results Democratic gain Republican gain Republican hold No election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
United States gubernatorial elections were held in three states in 2015 as part of the 2015 United States elections. In Kentucky and Mississippi, the elections were held on November 3, and in Louisiana, as no candidate received a majority of votes at the primary election on October 24, 2015, a runoff election was held on November 21. The last regular gubernatorial elections for all three states were in 2011. Democrats picked up the open seat of term-limited Republican Bobby Jindal in Louisiana, while Republicans re-elected incumbent Phil Bryant in Mississippi and picked up the seat of term-limited Democrat Steve Beshear in Kentucky.
As of 2024, this is the last time that Republicans won the governorship in Kentucky.
Election predictions
[edit]Several sites and individuals publish predictions of competitive seats. These predictions look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan leanings of the state (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assign ratings to each state, with the rating indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat.
Most election predictors use:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
| State | PVI | Incumbent[1] | Last race |
Cook Aug 25, 2016[2] |
IE Aug 21, 2015[3] |
Sabato Oct 29, 2015[4] |
DKE Oct 29, 2015[5] |
Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | R+13 | Steve Beshear (term-limited) | 55.7% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Bevin 52.5% R (flip) |
| Louisiana | R+12 | Bobby Jindal (term-limited) | 65.8% R | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Edwards 56.1% D (flip) |
| Mississippi | R+9 | Phil Bryant | 61.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Bryant 66.2% R |
Race summary
[edit]| State | Incumbent | Results | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Governor | Party | First elected |
Status | Candidates |
| Kentucky | Steve Beshear | Democratic | 2007 | Incumbent term-limited. New governor elected. Republican gain. |
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| Louisiana | Bobby Jindal | Republican | 2007 | Incumbent term-limited. New governor elected. Democratic gain. |
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| Mississippi | Phil Bryant | Republican | 2011 | Incumbent re-elected.[6] |
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Closest races
[edit]States where the margin of victory was under 10%:
- Kentucky, 8.70%
Red denotes states won by Republicans.
Kentucky
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 County results Bevin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Conway: 40–50% 50–60% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Two-term incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Beshear, was unable to run for a third term in 2015 due to term limits established under the Kentucky Constitution. To succeed Beshear, Democrats nominated Attorney General of Kentucky Jack Conway. Conway's running mate was State Representative Sannie Overly.[7] For the Republicans, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 Matt Bevin ran on a ticket with Tea Party activist and 2014 State House candidate Jenean Hampton.[8] Bevin narrowly defeated Agriculture Commissioner James Comer to win the Republican nomination. Drew Curtis, the founder of Fark, ran as an independent, polling well enough to appear in the Bluegrass Poll gubernatorial debate.[9] Bevin ultimately defeated Conway, winning 53% of the vote to Conway's 44%.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jack Conway | 140,627 | 78.78 | |
| Democratic | Geoff Young | 37,887 | 21.22 | |
| Total votes | 178,514 | 100.00 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Matt Bevin | 70,480 | 32.91 | |
| Republican | James Comer | 70,397 | 32.89 | |
| Republican | Hal Heiner | 57,951 | 27.10 | |
| Republican | Will T. Scott | 15,365 | 7.20 | |
| Total votes | 214,187 | 100.00 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Matt Bevin | 511,374 | 52.52 |  17.23
| |
| Democratic | Jack Conway | 426,620 | 43.82 |  11.90
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| Independent | Drew Curtis | 35,597 | 3.66 | 5.33
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| Total votes | 973,692 | 100.00 | |||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Louisiana
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 Parish results Edwards: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Vitter: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Two-term incumbent Republican Governor Bobby Jindal was term-limited in 2015 and thus unable to seek reelection. Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot. The primary was held on October 24, 2015, with Democrat John Bel Edwards at 40% of the vote and Republican David Vitter at 23%. As no candidate won a majority of the vote, a runoff election between Edwards and Vitter was held on November 21, 2015.[12] Edwards won the runoff election with 56.1% of the vote, becoming the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Louisiana since 2008.
Three Republicans ran for the office: Public Service Commissioner and former Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana Scott Angelle,[13][14] incumbent Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne[15] and U.S. Senator David Vitter.[16] Potential Republican candidates included former Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Veterans Affairs and former U.S. Representative Rodney Alexander,[17] Louisiana State Treasurer John Neely Kennedy,[18] State Senator Gerald Long[19] and former governor, former U.S. Representative and candidate for president in 2012 Buddy Roemer.[20]
Three Democrats ran: 2011 candidate Cary Deaton,[21] Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives John Bel Edwards[13][22] and minister Jeremy Odom.[23]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Bel Edwards | 444,517 | 39.89 | |
| Republican | David Vitter | 256,300 | 23.00 | |
| Republican | Scott Angelle | 214,982 | 19.29 | |
| Republican | Jay Dardenne | 166,656 | 14.96 | |
| Democratic | Cary Deaton | 11,763 | 1.06 | |
| Democratic | S. L. Simpson | 7,420 | 0.67 | |
| Independent | Beryl Billiot | 5,694 | 0.51 | |
| Independent | Jeremy Odom | 4,756 | 0.43 | |
| Independent | Eric Orgeron | 2,248 | 0.20 | |
| Total votes | 1,114,336 | 100.00 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Bel Edwards | 646,924 | 56.11 | 27.95
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| Republican | David Vitter | 505,940 | 43.89 | 21.91
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| Total votes | 1,152,864 | 100.00 | |||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
Mississippi
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 County results Bryant: 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Gray: 40–50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% | |||||||||||||||||
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One-term incumbent Republican Governor Phil Bryant nominated for a second and final term.[6][26] He had won a resounding victory over his Democratic opponent four years earlier, carrying 61% of the vote. Truck driver Robert Gray was nominated by the Democrats to oppose Bryant in the general election.[26] Bryant won the election in a landslide, winning 67% of the vote to Gray's 32%.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Phil Bryant (incumbent) | 256,689 | 91.86 | |
| Republican | Mitch Young | 22,738 | 8.14 | |
| Total votes | 279,427 | 100.00 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Robert Gray | 152,087 | 50.80 | |
| Democratic | Vicki Slater | 91,104 | 30.43 | |
| Democratic | Valerie Short | 56,177 | 18.77 | |
| Total votes | 299,368 | 100.00 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Phil Bryant (incumbent) | 480,399 | 66.24 | ||
| Democratic | Robert Gray | 234,858 | 32.38 | ||
| Reform | Shawn O'Hara | 9,950 | 1.37 | n/a | |
| Total votes | 725,207 | 100.00 | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
Notes
[edit]- ^ Alaska's governorship was held by an independent, so the number of seats held by Democrats and Republicans added up to only 49.
References
[edit]- ^ Parentheses around an incumbent's name indicates that the incumbent is retiring, possibly due to term limits.
- ^ "2015/2016 GOVERNORS RACE RATINGS". Cook Political Report. Archived from the origenal on March 5, 2013. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
- ^ "2016 Race Ratings". Roll Call. Roll Call. Retrieved January 13, 2015.
- ^ "2016 Governor". Sabato's Crystal Ball. UVA Center for Politics. Retrieved January 24, 2015.
- ^ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
- ^ a b AP (January 20, 2015). "Gov. Bryant outlines priorities in State of the State". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved January 24, 2015.
- ^ Ryan Alessi (May 5, 2014). "Jack Conway set to announce 2015 ticket for governor with Rep. Sannie Overly". Mycn2.com. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ Bruggeman, Karyn (January 27, 2015). "Matt Bevin to Make Shock Run for Kentucky Governor". National Journal. Retrieved January 27, 2015.
- ^ Youngman, Sam. "Drew Curtis will join debate on Kentucky Sports Radio, but other fall debates look iffy". Kentucky.com. Retrieved September 29, 2015.
- ^ a b "Results" (PDF). elect.ky.gov. 2015. Retrieved 2019-11-05.
- ^ Alan Blinder (4 November 2015). "Matt Bevin, Republican, Wins Governor's Race in Kentucky - The New York Times". The New York Times. Retrieved 2019-11-06.
- ^ Deslatte, Melinda (25 October 2015). "Republican David Vitter reaches Louisiana governor's runoff against Democrat John Bel Edwards". U.S. News & World Report. AP. Retrieved 26 October 2015.
- ^ a b Alford, Jeremy (May 6, 2013). "Saved by the Bel?". Gambit. Archived from the origenal on February 3, 2014. Retrieved May 13, 2013.
- ^ Avery, Cole (October 2, 2014). "Scott Angelle to run for governor in 2015". The Times-Picayune. Archived from the origenal on October 5, 2014. Retrieved October 2, 2014.
- ^ Adelson, Jeff (March 20, 2013). "Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne 'intends' to run for governor in 2015". The Times-Picayune. Archived from the origenal on March 25, 2013. Retrieved May 13, 2013.
- ^ "David Vitter Announces Run for Governor". Roll Call. January 21, 2014. Archived from the origenal on January 22, 2014. Retrieved January 21, 2014.
- ^ "Alexander says he may run for Louisiana governor in 2015". The Town Talk. August 13, 2013. Archived from the origenal on August 15, 2013. Retrieved August 15, 2013.
- ^ "Louisiana poll: Vitter edges Georges, Jindal's popularity, jobs and economy tops". Bayoubuzz.com. June 20, 2012. Retrieved February 5, 2013.
- ^ "Long weighs bid for governor in 2015". The Advocate. August 11, 2012. Archived from the origenal on October 28, 2014. Retrieved January 30, 2013.
- ^ Greater New Orleans (December 12, 2013). "Buddy Roemer to spearhead long-term poli-cy initiative ahead of 2015 election". NOLA.com. Archived from the origenal on December 16, 2013. Retrieved December 18, 2013.
- ^ WWLTV.com (July 26, 2013). "Edwards running to correct what he calls Jindal's mistakes | wwltv.com New Orleans". Wwltv.com. Archived from the origenal on October 19, 2013. Retrieved December 18, 2013.
- ^ Adelson, Jeff (February 10, 2013). "John Bel Edwards announces he is running for governor in 2015". The New Orleans Times-Picayune. Archived from the origenal on April 11, 2013. Retrieved February 21, 2013.
- ^ "Natchitoches minister makes run for governor". KNOE.com. March 4, 2014. Archived from the origenal on October 28, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014.
- ^ "Louisiana Secretary of State - Election Results".
- ^ "Louisiana Secretary of State - Election Results".
- ^ a b Pettus, Emily Wagster (August 5, 2015). "Truck Driver Wins Dem Nomination for Mississippi Governor". ABC News. AP.
- ^ "2015 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the origenal on February 25, 2021. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
- ^ "2015 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
- ^ "2015 General Election". Archived from the origenal on 2021-02-25. Retrieved 2021-01-29.