John Kaplan
Meteorologist
Hurricane Research Division
phone: 305-361-4506
fax: 305-361-4402
john.kaplan@noaa.gov
NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
4301 Rickenbacker Causeway
Miami, FL 33149
Professional InterestsReal-time statistical tropical cyclone intensity prediction model development
Tropical cyclone rapid intensification
Tropical cyclone genesis
Post-landfall tropical cyclone decay
Tropical cyclone vortex and enviromental interaction
Current Research Projects
Recently Published Peer-Reviewed Papers- Chen, X., C.M. Rozoff, R.F. Rogers, K.L. Corbosiero, D. Tao, J.-F. Gu, F. Judt, E.A. Hendricks, Y. Wang, M.M. Bell, D.P. Stern, K.D. Musgrave, J.A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan. Research advances on internal processes affecting tropical cyclone intensity change from 2018–2022. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(1):10-29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.001 2023
- Wang, W., Z. Zhang, J.P. Cangialosi, M. Brennan, L. Cowan, P. Clegg, T. Hosomi, I. Masaaki, A. Kumar Das, M. Mohapatra, M. Sharma, J. Knaff, J. Kaplan, T. Birchard, J. Doyle, J. Heming, J. Moskaitis, W. Komaromi, S. Ma, C. Sampson, L. Wu, and E. Blake. A review of recent advances (2018-2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, Part 2: Forecasts by operational centers. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(1):50-63, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.003 2023
- Zhang, Z., W. Wang, J. Doyle, J. Moskaitis, W. Komaromi, J. Heming, L. Magnusson, J.P. Cangialosi, L. Cowan, M. Brennan, S. Ma, A. Kumar Dos, T. Hosomi, P. Clegg, T. Birchard, J. Knaff, J. Kaplan, M. Mohapatra, M. Sharma, I. Masaaki, and E. Blake. A review of recent advances (2018-2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, Part 1: Dynamical model guidance. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(1):30-49, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.004 2023
- Chen, X., C.M. Rozoff, R.F. Rogers, K.L. Corbosiero, D. Tao, J.-F. Gu, F. Judt, E.A. Hendricks, Y. Wang, M.M. Bell, D.P. Stern, K.D. Musgrave, J.A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan. Research advances on internal processes affecting tropical cyclone intensity change from 2018–2022. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(1):10-29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.001 2023
Ref. 4262
- Wang, W., Z. Zhang, J.P. Cangialosi, M. Brennan, L. Cowan, P. Clegg, T. Hosomi, I. Masaaki, A. Kumar Das, M. Mohapatra, M. Sharma, J. Knaff, J. Kaplan, T. Birchard, J. Doyle, J. Heming, J. Moskaitis, W. Komaromi, S. Ma, C. Sampson, L. Wu, and E. Blake. A review of recent advances (2018-2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, Part 2: Forecasts by operational centers. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(1):50-63, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.003 2023
Ref. 4265
- Zhang, Z., W. Wang, J. Doyle, J. Moskaitis, W. Komaromi, J. Heming, L. Magnusson, J.P. Cangialosi, L. Cowan, M. Brennan, S. Ma, A. Kumar Dos, T. Hosomi, P. Clegg, T. Birchard, J. Knaff, J. Kaplan, M. Mohapatra, M. Sharma, I. Masaaki, and E. Blake. A review of recent advances (2018-2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, Part 1: Dynamical model guidance. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(1):30-49, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.004 2023
Ref. 4263
- DeMaria, M.D., J.L. Franklin, R. Zelinsky, D.A. Zelinsky, M.J. Onderlinde, J.A. Knaff, S.N. Stevenson, J. Kaplan, K.D. Musgrave, G. Chirokova, and C.R. Sampson. The National Hurricane Center tropical cyclone model guidance suite. Weather and Forecasting, 37(11):2141-2159, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0039.1 2022
Ref. 4134
- Wadler, J.B., J.J. Cione, J.A. Zhang, E.A. Kalina, and J. Kaplan. The effects of environmental wind shear direction on tropical cyclone boundary layer thermodynamics and intensity change from multiple observational datasets. Monthly Weather Review, 150(1):115-134, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0022.1 2022
Ref. 4038
- Zawislak, J., R.F. Rogers, S.D. Aberson, G.J. Alaka, G. Alvey, A. Aksoy, L. Bucci, J. Cione, N. Dorst, J. Dunion, M. Fischer, J. Gamache, S. Gopalakrishnan, A. Hazelton, H.M. Holbach, J. Kaplan, H. Leighton, F. Marks, S.T. Murillo, P. Reasor, K. Ryan, K. Sellwood, J.A. Sippel, and J.A. Zhang. Accomplishments of NOAA’S airborne hurricane field program and a broader future approach to forecast improvement. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(2):E311-E338, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0174.1 2022
Ref. 3984
- DeMaria, M., J.L. Franklin, M.J. Onderlinde, and J. Kaplan. Operational forecasting of tropical cyclone rapid intensification at the National Hurricane Center. Atmosphere, 12(6):683, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060683 2021
Ref. 3978
- Aberson, S.D., and J. Kaplan. The relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and tropical cyclone rapid intensification. Weather and Forecasting, 35(10):1865-1870, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0209.1 2020
Ref. 3823
- Balaguru, K., G.R. Foltz, L.R. Leung, J. Kaplan, W. Xu, N. Reul, and B. Chapron. Pronounced impact of salinity on rapidly intensifying Atlantic hurricanes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(9):e1497-e1511, https://doi.org/10.1175-BAMS-D-19-0303.1 2020
Ref. 3787
- Kaplan, J., C.M. Rozoff, M. DeMaria, C.R. Sampson, J.P. Kossin, C.S. Velden, J.J. Cione, J.P. Dunion, J.A. Knaff, J.A. Zhang, J.F. Dostalek, J.D. Hawkins, T.F. Lee, and J.E. Solbrig. Evaluating environmental impacts on tropical cyclone rapid intensification predictability utilizing statistical models. Weather and Forecasting, 30(5):1374-1396, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0032.1 2015
Ref. 3144
- Rozoff, C.M., C.S. Velden, J. Kaplan, J.P. Kossin, and A.J. Wimmers. Improvements in the probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensification with passive microwave observations. Weather and Forecasting, 30(4):1016-1038, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00109.1 2015
Ref. 3121
- Rogers, R.F., S.D. Aberson, A. Aksoy, B. Annane, M. Black, J.J. Cione, N. Dorst, J. Dunion, J.F. Gamache, S.B. Goldenberg, S.G. Gopalakrishnan, J. Kaplan, B.W. Klotz, S. Lorsolo, F.D. Marks, S.T. Murillo, M.D. Powell, P.D. Reasor, K.J. Sellwood, E.W. Uhlhorn, T. Vukicevic, J.A. Zhang, and X. Zhang. NOAA’s Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX): A progress report. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94(6):859-882, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00089 2013
Ref. 2862
- Sampson, C.R., J. Kaplan, J.A. Knaff, M. DeMaria, and C.A. Sisko. A deterministic rapid intensification aid. Weather and Forecasting, 26(4):579-585, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05010.1 2011
Ref. 47
- Kaplan, J., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff. A revised tropical cyclone rapid intensification index for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. Weather and Forecasting, 25(1):220-241, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WAF2222280.1 2010
Ref. 185
- DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan. On the decay of tropical cyclone winds crossing narrow landmasses. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45(3):491-499, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2351.1 2006
Ref. 564
- Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria. Estimating the likelihood of rapid intensification in the Atlantic and east Pacific basins using SHIPS model data. Preprints, 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, April 24-28, 2006. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 4 pp. (CD-ROM), 2006
Ref. 590
- Rogers, R.F., S.D. Aberson, M.L. Black, P.G. Black, J.J. Cione, P.P. Dodge, J.P. Dunion, J.F. Gamache, J. Kaplan, M.D. Powell, L.N. Shay, N. Surgi, and E.W. Uhlhorn. The Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A NOAA multi-year field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(11):1523-1537, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-11-1523 2006
Ref. 630
- DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L.K. Shay, J.A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan. Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Weather and Forecasting, 20(4):531-543, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF862.1 2005
Ref. 676
- Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria. Estimating the probability of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins. Preprints, 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, May 3-7, 2004. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 538-539, 2004
Ref. 794
- Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria. Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. Weather and Forecasting, 18(6):1093-1108, https://doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2003)0181093:LCORIT>2.0.CO; 2003
Ref. 882
- Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria. Estimating the probability of rapid intensification using the SHIPS model output: Some preliminary results. Preprints, 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, April 29-May 3, 2002. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 124-125, 2002
Ref. 985
- Rogers, R.F., S.D. Aberson, J. Kaplan, and S.B. Goldenberg. A pronounced upper-tropospheric warm anomaly encountered by the NOAA Gulfstream-IV aircraft in the vicinity of deep convection. Monthly Weather Review, 130(1):180-187, 2002
Ref. 1020
- Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria. On the decay of tropical winds after landfall in the New England area. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 40(2):280-286, 2001
Ref. 1083
- Cione, J.J., P. Molina, J. Kaplan, and P.G. Black. SST time series directly under tropical cyclones: Observations and implications. Preprints, 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, May 29-June 2, 2000. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 1-2, 2000
Ref. 1164
- Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria. Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. Preprints, 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, May 29-June 2, 2000. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 232-233, 2000
Ref. 1194
- DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan. An updated Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. Weather and Forecasting, 14(3):326-337, https://doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1999)0140326:AUSHIP>2.0.CO; 1999
Ref. 1298
- Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria. Climatological and synoptic characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. Preprints, 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Dallas, TX, January 10-15, 1999. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 592-595, 1999
Ref. 1342
- Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria. Climatological and synoptic characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. Preprints, Symposium on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change, Phoenix, AZ, January 11-16, 1998. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 119-123, 1998
Ref. 1458
- Landsea, C.W., J. Kaplan, and M. DeMaria. The differing roles of the large-scale environment in the intensity changes of recent Atlantic hurricanes. Preprints, Symposium on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change, Phoenix, AZ, January 11-16, 1998. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 113-114, 1998
Ref. 1462
- DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan. An operational evaluation of a statistical intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS). Preprints, 22nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ft. Collins, CO, May 19-23, 1997. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 280-281, 1997
Ref. 1532
- Kaplan, J., C.W. Landsea, M. DeMaria, and J.J. Cione. The differing roles of the large-scale environment in the intensity changes of three 1996 Atlantic hurricanes. Preprints, 22nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ft. Collins, CO, May 19-23, 1997. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 358-359, 1997
Ref. 1569
- Franklin, J.L., S.E. Feuer, J. Kaplan, and S.D. Aberson. Tropical cyclone motion and surrounding flow relationships: Searching for beta gyres in Omega dropwindsonde datasets. Monthly Weather Review, 124(1):64-84, https://doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1996)1240064:TCMASF>2.0.CO; 1996
Ref. 1641
- Feuer, S.E., and J. Kaplan. Tropical cyclone intensity change and environmental kinematic structure in Omega dropwindsonde data sets. Preprints, 21st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, April 24-28, 1995. American Meteorological Society, Boston,362-364, 1995
Ref. 1727
- Kaplan, J. An examination of the role of large-scale forcing on the rapid intensification of Hurricane Emily (1987). Preprints, 21st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, April 24-28, 1995. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 332-334, 1995
Ref. 1747
- Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria. A simple empirical model for predicting the decay of tropical cyclone winds after landfall. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 34(11):2499-2512, https://doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1995)0342499:ASEMFP>2.0.CO; 1995
Ref. 1748
- Burpee, R.W., S.D. Aberson, P.G. Black, M. DeMaria, J.L. Franklin, J.S. Griffin, S.H. Houston, J. Kaplan, S.J. Lord, F.D. Marks, M.D. Powell, and H.E. Willoughby. Real-time guidance provided by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division to forecasters during Emily of 1993. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75(10):1765-1783, https://doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1994)0751765:RTGPBN>2.0.CO; 1994
Ref. 1807
- DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan. A statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic basin. Weather and Forecasting, 9(2):209-220, https://doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1994)0092.0.CO;2 1994
Ref. 1816
- DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan. Sea surface temperature and the maximum intensity of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Journal of Climate, 7(9):1324-1334, https://doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1994)0071324:SSTATM>2.0.CO; 1994
Ref. 1817
- DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan. Verification of a statistical hurricane intensity prediction model. Preprints, 20th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Antonio, TX, May 10-14, 1993. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 303-304, 1993
Ref. 1903
- DeMaria, M., J.J. Baik, and J. Kaplan. Upper-level eddy angular momentum fluxes and tropical cyclone intensity change. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 50(8):1133-1147, https://doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1993)0501133:ULEAMF>2.0.CO; 1993
Ref. 1905
- Kaplan, J., and W.M. Frank. The large-scale inflow-layer structure of Hurricane Frederic (1979). Monthly Weather Review, 121(1):3-20, https://doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1993)1210003:TLSILS>2.0.CO; 1993
Ref. 1928
- DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan. A statistical model for predicting tropical cyclone intensity change. Preprints, 19th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, May 6-10, 1991. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 587-588, 1991
Ref. 2087
- Kaplan, J., and J.L. Franklin. The relationship between the motion of Tropical Storm Florence (1988) and its environmental flow. Preprints, 19th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, May 6-10, 1991. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 93-97, 1991
Ref. 2108
- Franklin, J.L., C.S. Velden, J. Kaplan, and C.M. Hayden. Some comparisons of VAS and dropwindsonde data over the subtropical Atlantic. Monthly Weather Review, 118(9):1869-1887, https://doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1990)1181869:SCOVAD>2.0.CO; 1990
Ref. 2183
- Franklin, J.L., C.S. Velden, C.M. Hayden, and J. Kaplan. A comparison of VAS and ODW data around a subtropical cold low. Preprints, 4th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, San Diego, CA, May 16-19, 1989. American Meteorological Society, Boston, 141-144, 1989
Ref. 2264
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