Monthly average temperatures (red dots and line) rose to more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average in late 2023. On average, forecasts from the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) system indicate temperatures are likely to decline only slightly as El Niño continues to wane through early 2024. Graph by Kayla Besong based on data from NCEI and Emily Becker/IRI.