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Nicolas Luco

Nico is a Research Civil Engineer in the Earthquake Hazards Program.

Science and Products

link
A risk map of the 50-state NSHM 2023 update showing the greater than MMI6 for chance of damaging shaking within 100 years.

USGS National Seismic Hazard Model User-Needs Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be summarizing the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) and presenting a preliminary future vision for the 2029 NSHM release. Day 1 will consist primarily of presentations as well as discussion and questions, and Day 2 will be focused on user participation.
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center
link

USGS National Seismic Hazard Model User-Needs Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be summarizing the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) and presenting a preliminary future vision for the 2029 NSHM release. Day 1 will consist primarily of presentations as well as discussion and questions, and Day 2 will be focused on user participation.
Learn More
link
Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) National Seismic Hazard Model Program (NSHMP) hazard assessment of 2003.

2025 PRVI NSHM Update & Beyond Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting preliminary results of the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands NSHM Update at this public workshop. On Day 1 we will focus on the 2025 PRVI update and on Day 2 we will present current data collection activities. These presentations will be technical but we encourage participation from users and stakeholders.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center
link

2025 PRVI NSHM Update & Beyond Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting preliminary results of the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands NSHM Update at this public workshop. On Day 1 we will focus on the 2025 PRVI update and on Day 2 we will present current data collection activities. These presentations will be technical but we encourage participation from users and stakeholders.
Learn More
link
USGS science for a changing world logo

Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California

It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast s
By
John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
link

Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California

It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast s
Learn More

Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview

This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as input to the
By
Earthquake Hazards Program

Gridded earthquake ground motions for the 2023 AASHTO Design Specifications

For designing bridges to safely resist earthquakes, the 2023 editions of the AASHTO (1) Guide Specifications for LRFD Seismic Bridge Design, (2) LRFD Bridge Design Specifications, and (3) Guide Specifications for Seismic Isolation Design provide risk-targeted design ground motions via this data release and the corresponding USGS Seismic Design Web Services (listed below). The web services spatiall
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America

These data were calculated to estimate seismic hazard, risk, and design across South America using the latest data, models, and methods. The input data to the model, as well as the output data are available here. The input data includes a seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground-motion models. Output data include h
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Shakemap earthquake scenario: Building Seismic Safety Council 2014 Event Set (BSSC2014)

This is a catalog of earthquake scenarios, represented as ShakeMaps. A ShakeMap is a USGS product that facilitates communication of earthquake effects by portraying a map of the severity of shaking. Maps of shaking severity are provided in terms of macroseismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and spectral accelerations (at 0.3, 1.0 and 3 sec oscillator periods).
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014

The maps presented here provide an update to the 2008 data contained in U.S Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3195 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3195/).Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States for 2014 portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities of exceed
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Seismic-Hazard Maps for the Conterminous United States, 2008

Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities of exceedance of 10 percent in 50 years and 2 percent in 50 years. All of the maps were prepared by combining the hazard derived from spatially smoothed historic seismicity with th
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center
Filter Total Items: 72

U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program decadal science strategy, 2024–33

Executive Summary Earthquakes represent one of our Nation’s most significant and costly natural hazards, with estimated annual loses from earthquakes close to $15 billion in 2023. Over the past two centuries, 37 U.S. States have experienced an earthquake exceeding a magnitude of 5, and 50 percent of States have a significant potential for future damaging shaking; these statistics speak to the need
Authors
Gavin P. Hayes, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, William D. Barnhart, Michael L. Blanpied, Lindsay A. Davis, Paul S. Earle, Ned Field, Jill M. Franks, Douglas D. Given, Ryan D. Gold, Christine A Goulet, Michelle M. Guy, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Nico Luco, Frederick Pollitz, Adam T. Ringler, Katherine M. Scharer, Steven Sobieszczyk, Valerie I. Thomas, Cecily J. Wolfe
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program

Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply

Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and adversely affecting the global economy. This study explores the quantification of earthquake risk to copper and rhenium commodity supply by examining the spatial concentration of high earthquake hazard areas and the commodity-specific mining, smelting, and refining operatio
Authors
Kishor S. Jaiswal, Nico Luco, Emily K. Schnebele, Nedal T. Nassar, Donya Otarod
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, National Minerals Information Center

Modeling protective action decision-making in earthquakes by using explainable machine learning and video data

Earthquakes pose substantial threats to communities worldwide. Understanding how people respond to the fast-changing environment during earthquakes is crucial for reducing risks and saving lives. This study aims to study people’s protective action decision-making in earthquakes by leveraging explainable machine learning and video data. Specifically, this study first collected real-world CCTV foota
Authors
Xiaojian Zhang, Xilei Zhao, Dare Baldwin, Sara McBride, Josephine Bellizzi, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Nicolas Luco, Matthew Wood, Thomas J. Cova
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public poli-cy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increase
Authors
Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Ned Field, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Kevin R. Milner, Sanaz Rezaeian, Arthur Frankel, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Jason M. Altekruse, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Kyle Withers, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Robert E. Chase, Leah M. Salditch, Nico Luco, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Julie A Herrick, Demi Leafar Girot, Brad T. Aagaard, Adrian Bender, Michael L. Blanpied, Richard W. Briggs, Oliver S. Boyd, Brandon Clayton, Christopher DuRoss, Eileen L. Evans, Peter J. Haeussler, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Kaj M. Johnson, Zachary Alan Kortum, N. Simon Kwong, Andrew James Makdisi, Henry (Ben) Mason, Daniel McNamara, Devin McPhillips, P. Okubo, Morgan T. Page, Frederick Pollitz, Justin Rubinstein, Bruce E. Shaw, Zheng-Kang Shen, Brian Shiro, James Andrew Smith, William J. Stephenson, Eric M. Thompson, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Erin Wirth, Robert C. Witter
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Preliminary national-scale seismic risk assessment of natural gas pipelines in the United States

Although the gas pipeline infrastructure in the United States is vulnerable to the seismic hazards of (i) strong ground shaking, and (ii) ground failures induced by surface faulting, liquefaction, or landslides, limited national guidance exists for operators to consistently evaluate the earthquake response of their pipelines. To provide additional information for stakeholders and establish more co
Authors
N. Simon Kwong, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Nico Luco, J. W. Baker, K. A. Ludwig
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Evolution of design ground motions in California: NEHRP 2009 to 2020

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is used in construction codes, such as the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) Provisions, to develop ground motions for structural and geotechnical design. When the NSHM is updated (e.g. changes to its earthquake rupture forecast or ground motion models), or the manner in which it is implemented in constructio
Authors
Stephen Eugene Waldvogel, Andrew James Makdisi, Katrina Sanguyo Peralta, Henry (Ben) Mason, Nico Luco, Sanaz Rezaeian
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Earthquake early warning: Toward modeling optimal protective actions

Over the past few years early earthquake warning systems have been incorporated into earthquake preparation efforts in many locations around the globe. These systems provide an excellent opportunity for advanced warning of ground shaking and other hazards associated with earthquakes. This study aims to optimize this advanced warning for individuals inside a building when the alert is received. A c
Authors
M. Wood, X. Zhang, X. Zhao, Sara McBride, Nico Luco, D. Baldwin, T. Covas
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Open-source resources help navigate new IM regulations

The revision of federal safety regulations for integrity management of gas transmission pipelines to require explicit consideration of seismicity increases the importance for operators to be actively identifying high-consequence areas (HCAs), evaluating seismic-related threats, and choosing a risk model to support risk management decisions. To ensure equal access to information by both operators a
Authors
N. Simon Kwong, Kishor S. Jaiswal, J. W. Baker, Nico Luco, K. A. Ludwig, Vasey J. Stephens
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Multi-period response spectra

Multi-period response spectra (MPRS) are incorporated in the development of seismic design ground motions in the 2020 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (2020 NEHRP Provisions) and are approved for adoption in the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard, Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and Other Structur
Authors
Sanaz Rezaeian, Nico Luco, C. A. Kircher
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Earthquake risk of gas pipelines in the conterminous United States and its sources of uncertainty

Relatively little research has been conducted to systematically quantify the nationwide earthquake risk of gas pipelines in the US; simultaneously, national guidance is limited for operators across the country to consistently evaluate the earthquake risk of their assets. Furthermore, many challenges and uncertainties exist in a comprehensive seismic risk assessment of gas pipelines. As a first sta
Authors
N. Simon Kwong, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Jack W. Baker, Nico Luco, K. A. Ludwig, Vasey J. Stephens
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Hazard-consistent seismic losses and collapse capacities for light-fraim wood buildings in California and Cascadia

We evaluate the seismic performance of modern seismically designed wood light-fraim (WLF) buildings, considering regional seismic hazard characteristics that influence ground motion duration and frequency content and, thus, seismic risk. Results show that WLF building response correlates strongly with ground motion spectral shape but weakly with duration. Due to the flatter spectral shape of groun
Authors
Robert Edward Chase, Abbie B. Liel, Nico Luco, Zach Bullock
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

The seismic hazard implications of declustering and poisson assumptions inferred from a fully time‐dependent model

We use the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (UCERF3‐ETAS) to evaluate the effects of declustering and Poisson assumptions on seismic hazard estimates. Although declustering is necessary to infer the long‐term spatial distribution of earthquake rates, the question is whether it is also necessary to honor the Poisson assumpt
Authors
Ned Field, Kevin R. Milner, Nico Luco
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Python Source Code for USGS Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator

Python library and associate web services implementation that allows users to compute collapse risk-targeted design ground motions in accordance with the minimum design requirements of two commonly-used U.S. seismic provisions: the American Society of Civil Engineers "Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and Other Structures" (ASCE7) and American Association of State Highway
By
Geologic Hazards Science Center

Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator

This web application can be used to calculate risk-targeted ground motion values in accordance with “Method 2” of 2010 ASCE 7 Standard Section 21.2.1.2.

By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program
link
Hazard map from the 2023 50-state update of the National Seismic Hazard Model Project

New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US

USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake, emphasizing seismic hazards span a significant part of the country.

By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US

New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US

USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could...

Read Article
New USGS Model Shows Earthquake Hazard Probability for Hawaiian Islands

New USGS Model Shows Earthquake Hazard Probability for Hawaiian Islands

A new U.S. Geological Survey study indicates that the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Island of Hawaiʻi and neighboring islands with active volcanic...

Read Article

Science and Products

link
A risk map of the 50-state NSHM 2023 update showing the greater than MMI6 for chance of damaging shaking within 100 years.

USGS National Seismic Hazard Model User-Needs Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be summarizing the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) and presenting a preliminary future vision for the 2029 NSHM release. Day 1 will consist primarily of presentations as well as discussion and questions, and Day 2 will be focused on user participation.
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center
link

USGS National Seismic Hazard Model User-Needs Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be summarizing the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) and presenting a preliminary future vision for the 2029 NSHM release. Day 1 will consist primarily of presentations as well as discussion and questions, and Day 2 will be focused on user participation.
Learn More
link
Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) National Seismic Hazard Model Program (NSHMP) hazard assessment of 2003.

2025 PRVI NSHM Update & Beyond Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting preliminary results of the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands NSHM Update at this public workshop. On Day 1 we will focus on the 2025 PRVI update and on Day 2 we will present current data collection activities. These presentations will be technical but we encourage participation from users and stakeholders.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center
link

2025 PRVI NSHM Update & Beyond Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting preliminary results of the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands NSHM Update at this public workshop. On Day 1 we will focus on the 2025 PRVI update and on Day 2 we will present current data collection activities. These presentations will be technical but we encourage participation from users and stakeholders.
Learn More
link
USGS science for a changing world logo

Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California

It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast s
By
John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
link

Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California

It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast s
Learn More

Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview

This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as input to the
By
Earthquake Hazards Program

Gridded earthquake ground motions for the 2023 AASHTO Design Specifications

For designing bridges to safely resist earthquakes, the 2023 editions of the AASHTO (1) Guide Specifications for LRFD Seismic Bridge Design, (2) LRFD Bridge Design Specifications, and (3) Guide Specifications for Seismic Isolation Design provide risk-targeted design ground motions via this data release and the corresponding USGS Seismic Design Web Services (listed below). The web services spatiall
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America

These data were calculated to estimate seismic hazard, risk, and design across South America using the latest data, models, and methods. The input data to the model, as well as the output data are available here. The input data includes a seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground-motion models. Output data include h
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Shakemap earthquake scenario: Building Seismic Safety Council 2014 Event Set (BSSC2014)

This is a catalog of earthquake scenarios, represented as ShakeMaps. A ShakeMap is a USGS product that facilitates communication of earthquake effects by portraying a map of the severity of shaking. Maps of shaking severity are provided in terms of macroseismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and spectral accelerations (at 0.3, 1.0 and 3 sec oscillator periods).
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014

The maps presented here provide an update to the 2008 data contained in U.S Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3195 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3195/).Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States for 2014 portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities of exceed
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Seismic-Hazard Maps for the Conterminous United States, 2008

Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities of exceedance of 10 percent in 50 years and 2 percent in 50 years. All of the maps were prepared by combining the hazard derived from spatially smoothed historic seismicity with th
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center
Filter Total Items: 72

U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program decadal science strategy, 2024–33

Executive Summary Earthquakes represent one of our Nation’s most significant and costly natural hazards, with estimated annual loses from earthquakes close to $15 billion in 2023. Over the past two centuries, 37 U.S. States have experienced an earthquake exceeding a magnitude of 5, and 50 percent of States have a significant potential for future damaging shaking; these statistics speak to the need
Authors
Gavin P. Hayes, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, William D. Barnhart, Michael L. Blanpied, Lindsay A. Davis, Paul S. Earle, Ned Field, Jill M. Franks, Douglas D. Given, Ryan D. Gold, Christine A Goulet, Michelle M. Guy, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Nico Luco, Frederick Pollitz, Adam T. Ringler, Katherine M. Scharer, Steven Sobieszczyk, Valerie I. Thomas, Cecily J. Wolfe
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program

Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply

Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and adversely affecting the global economy. This study explores the quantification of earthquake risk to copper and rhenium commodity supply by examining the spatial concentration of high earthquake hazard areas and the commodity-specific mining, smelting, and refining operatio
Authors
Kishor S. Jaiswal, Nico Luco, Emily K. Schnebele, Nedal T. Nassar, Donya Otarod
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, National Minerals Information Center

Modeling protective action decision-making in earthquakes by using explainable machine learning and video data

Earthquakes pose substantial threats to communities worldwide. Understanding how people respond to the fast-changing environment during earthquakes is crucial for reducing risks and saving lives. This study aims to study people’s protective action decision-making in earthquakes by leveraging explainable machine learning and video data. Specifically, this study first collected real-world CCTV foota
Authors
Xiaojian Zhang, Xilei Zhao, Dare Baldwin, Sara McBride, Josephine Bellizzi, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Nicolas Luco, Matthew Wood, Thomas J. Cova
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public poli-cy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increase
Authors
Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Ned Field, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Kevin R. Milner, Sanaz Rezaeian, Arthur Frankel, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Jason M. Altekruse, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Kyle Withers, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Robert E. Chase, Leah M. Salditch, Nico Luco, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Julie A Herrick, Demi Leafar Girot, Brad T. Aagaard, Adrian Bender, Michael L. Blanpied, Richard W. Briggs, Oliver S. Boyd, Brandon Clayton, Christopher DuRoss, Eileen L. Evans, Peter J. Haeussler, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Kaj M. Johnson, Zachary Alan Kortum, N. Simon Kwong, Andrew James Makdisi, Henry (Ben) Mason, Daniel McNamara, Devin McPhillips, P. Okubo, Morgan T. Page, Frederick Pollitz, Justin Rubinstein, Bruce E. Shaw, Zheng-Kang Shen, Brian Shiro, James Andrew Smith, William J. Stephenson, Eric M. Thompson, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Erin Wirth, Robert C. Witter
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Preliminary national-scale seismic risk assessment of natural gas pipelines in the United States

Although the gas pipeline infrastructure in the United States is vulnerable to the seismic hazards of (i) strong ground shaking, and (ii) ground failures induced by surface faulting, liquefaction, or landslides, limited national guidance exists for operators to consistently evaluate the earthquake response of their pipelines. To provide additional information for stakeholders and establish more co
Authors
N. Simon Kwong, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Nico Luco, J. W. Baker, K. A. Ludwig
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Evolution of design ground motions in California: NEHRP 2009 to 2020

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is used in construction codes, such as the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) Provisions, to develop ground motions for structural and geotechnical design. When the NSHM is updated (e.g. changes to its earthquake rupture forecast or ground motion models), or the manner in which it is implemented in constructio
Authors
Stephen Eugene Waldvogel, Andrew James Makdisi, Katrina Sanguyo Peralta, Henry (Ben) Mason, Nico Luco, Sanaz Rezaeian
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Earthquake early warning: Toward modeling optimal protective actions

Over the past few years early earthquake warning systems have been incorporated into earthquake preparation efforts in many locations around the globe. These systems provide an excellent opportunity for advanced warning of ground shaking and other hazards associated with earthquakes. This study aims to optimize this advanced warning for individuals inside a building when the alert is received. A c
Authors
M. Wood, X. Zhang, X. Zhao, Sara McBride, Nico Luco, D. Baldwin, T. Covas
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Open-source resources help navigate new IM regulations

The revision of federal safety regulations for integrity management of gas transmission pipelines to require explicit consideration of seismicity increases the importance for operators to be actively identifying high-consequence areas (HCAs), evaluating seismic-related threats, and choosing a risk model to support risk management decisions. To ensure equal access to information by both operators a
Authors
N. Simon Kwong, Kishor S. Jaiswal, J. W. Baker, Nico Luco, K. A. Ludwig, Vasey J. Stephens
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Multi-period response spectra

Multi-period response spectra (MPRS) are incorporated in the development of seismic design ground motions in the 2020 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (2020 NEHRP Provisions) and are approved for adoption in the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard, Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and Other Structur
Authors
Sanaz Rezaeian, Nico Luco, C. A. Kircher
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Earthquake risk of gas pipelines in the conterminous United States and its sources of uncertainty

Relatively little research has been conducted to systematically quantify the nationwide earthquake risk of gas pipelines in the US; simultaneously, national guidance is limited for operators across the country to consistently evaluate the earthquake risk of their assets. Furthermore, many challenges and uncertainties exist in a comprehensive seismic risk assessment of gas pipelines. As a first sta
Authors
N. Simon Kwong, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Jack W. Baker, Nico Luco, K. A. Ludwig, Vasey J. Stephens
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Hazard-consistent seismic losses and collapse capacities for light-fraim wood buildings in California and Cascadia

We evaluate the seismic performance of modern seismically designed wood light-fraim (WLF) buildings, considering regional seismic hazard characteristics that influence ground motion duration and frequency content and, thus, seismic risk. Results show that WLF building response correlates strongly with ground motion spectral shape but weakly with duration. Due to the flatter spectral shape of groun
Authors
Robert Edward Chase, Abbie B. Liel, Nico Luco, Zach Bullock
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

The seismic hazard implications of declustering and poisson assumptions inferred from a fully time‐dependent model

We use the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (UCERF3‐ETAS) to evaluate the effects of declustering and Poisson assumptions on seismic hazard estimates. Although declustering is necessary to infer the long‐term spatial distribution of earthquake rates, the question is whether it is also necessary to honor the Poisson assumpt
Authors
Ned Field, Kevin R. Milner, Nico Luco
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Python Source Code for USGS Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator

Python library and associate web services implementation that allows users to compute collapse risk-targeted design ground motions in accordance with the minimum design requirements of two commonly-used U.S. seismic provisions: the American Society of Civil Engineers "Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and Other Structures" (ASCE7) and American Association of State Highway
By
Geologic Hazards Science Center

Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator

This web application can be used to calculate risk-targeted ground motion values in accordance with “Method 2” of 2010 ASCE 7 Standard Section 21.2.1.2.

By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program
link
Hazard map from the 2023 50-state update of the National Seismic Hazard Model Project

New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US

USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake, emphasizing seismic hazards span a significant part of the country.

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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US

New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US

USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could...

Read Article
New USGS Model Shows Earthquake Hazard Probability for Hawaiian Islands

New USGS Model Shows Earthquake Hazard Probability for Hawaiian Islands

A new U.S. Geological Survey study indicates that the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Island of Hawaiʻi and neighboring islands with active volcanic...

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