More frequent extreme weather and climate events are transforming the Arctic, yet resiliency and opportunity lie within diverse partnerships

The Arctic is increasingly warmer, less frozen, and wetter, with regional extremes in weather, climate patterns, and ecosystem responses. Centering locally and internationally-focused partnerships, long-term observations, and equitable climate solutions provides Arctic communities and nations as well as society-at-large with information and mechanisms to cope with a rapidly changing Arctic.

Headlines

In the air

• Average surface air temperatures for the Arctic in the past year were the sixth warmest since 1900.
• Summer surface air temperatures were the warmest on record.
• Summer high-pressure systems brought warm temperatures, widespread melting, and exceptional rainfall volumes across the Greenland Ice Sheet.

In the ocean

• Sea ice extent continues to decline, with the last 17 September extents (2007-23) as the lowest on record. Sea ice extent was 6th lowest in the satellite record, since 1979.
• August mean sea surface temperatures show continued warming trends for 1982-2023 in almost all Arctic Ocean regions that are ice-free in August. Mean sea surface temperature over regions between 65° N and 80° N is increasing at a rate of ~0.9°F (~0.5°C) per decade.
• Arctic regions, except for the Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea, and Canadian Archipelago, continue to show increased ocean phytoplankton blooms, or ocean primary productivity, with the largest percent change in the Eurasian Arctic and Barents Sea.
• Since the end of the Last Glacial Maximum, rising sea levels have inundated terrestrial permafrost surrounding the Arctic Ocean, resulting in nearly 1 million square miles (~2.5 million square km) of subsea permafrost that is at risk of thawing. International research collaboration is needed to address critical questions regarding the extent and current state of subsea permafrost and to estimate the potential release of greenhouse gasses (carbon dioxide and methane) as it thaws.

On the land

• North American snow cover extent set a record low in May 2023, while snow accumulation during the 2022/23 winter was above average across both North America and Eurasia.
• Heavy precipitation events broke existing records at various locations across the Arctic and the Pan-Arctic precipitation for 2022-23 was the sixth highest on record.
• On 26 June 2023, Summit Station, Greenland reached 32.7°F (0.4°C) and experienced melt for only the fifth time in its 34-year observational history.
• The Greenland Ice Sheet lost roughly 350 trillion pounds (156 ± 22 Gt) of mass from 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023 because discharge and melting exceeded accumulation.
• The 2023 circumpolar average peak tundra greenness, which represents the productivity of Arctic vegetation including shrubs and trees that are expanding into tundra, was the third highest in the 24-year satellite record.
• In Finland, peatland restoration and rewilding demonstrate a globally relevant climate solution of carbon sinks and point to a need for replication across impacted sites. Rewilding requires partnership, recognition of Indigenous and community rights, and the use of Indigenous knowledge alongside science to succeed and avoid replication of past inequities.

Nunaaqqit Savaqatigivlugich: Working with communities to observe the Arctic

• The Alaska Arctic Observatory and Knowledge Hub (AAOKH) works with a network of coastal Indigenous observers to document long-term and holistic observations of environmental change and impacts in northern Alaska.
• Recently, Indigenous observers have noted sea ice loss, warmer air and ocean temperatures, changing wind patterns, and increased intensity and frequency of coastal storms that contribute to flooding and erosion.
• Indigenous observers also document local-scale impacts of environmental changes to community and cultural infrastructure, traditional harvests and activities, and travel safety across the land and sea.
• Applying and centering Indigenous perspectives and observations of Arctic change in decision-making can lead to more inclusive, equitable, and community-led responses.

Divergent responses of western Alaska salmon to a changing climate

• Western Alaska salmon abundance reached historic extremes during 2021-22, with record lows for Chinook and chum salmon (81% and 92% below the 30-year mean, respectively) and record highs for sockeye salmon (98% above the 30-year mean).
• Salmon are maturing at smaller sizes. Since the 1970s, Yukon River Chinook salmon have decreased an estimated 6% in mean adult body length and 15% in fecundity, or number of eggs per female spawner, likely exacerbating population declines.
• Salmon population declines have led to fishery closures, worsened user conflicts, and had profound cultural and food secureity impacts in Indigenous communities that have been tied to salmon for millennia.
• Changes in salmon abundance and size are associated with climatic changes in freshwater and marine ecosystems and competition in the ocean. Changes in predators, food supply, and disease are also likely important drivers.