HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOM FORECASTS
Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast
In the Gulf of Mexico, some harmful algal blooms are caused by the microscopic algae species Karenia brevis, commonly called red tide. Karenia brevis blooms can cause respiratory illness and eye irritation in humans. It can also kill marine life, and lead to shellfish closures. Blooms are often patchy, so impacts vary by beach and throughout the day. NCCOS monitors conditions daily and issues regular forecasts for red tide blooms in the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast of Florida. You can find the forecasts below, and up-to-date conditions here.
Florida - Current Conditions
Over the next 36 hours, some beaches may experience a MODERATE risk of respiratory irritation from Karenia brevis (red tide) in SARASOTA county (Issued: 12-22 06PM). Conditions may vary.
Karenia brevis (red tide) is also present along the coast at concentrations that may cause respiratory irritation with onshore winds in CHARLOTTE, COLLIER, LEE, MANATEE and PINELLAS counties.
A MODERATE to HIGH risk of respiratory irritation is most likely when winds are blowing onshore (from water to land) or alongshore, and less likely when winds are blowing offshore (from land to water). Check links below for detailed forecasts at individual beaches.
Respiratory Forecast
Modeled forecast of respiratory irritation at individual beach locations, based on field samples of Karenia brevis concentration, wind speed, and direction.
Intensification Forecast
Model results estimating the likelihood of bloom initiation or intensification along the coast of Southwest Florida, due to an accumulation of cells at the coast.
Satellite Imagery
Current imagery from the Ocean Land Color Imager (OLCI) showing bloom location and extent.
Beach Conditions Reporting System
Provides today’s conditions at multiple beaches along the west coast of Florida, this includes respiratory irritation, rip currents, wind, and others.
State of Florida Observations
Concentration of K. brevis cells provided by Florida state monitoring programs, from water samples over the last 8 days.
Texas - Current Conditions
There is no risk of respiratory irritation from Karenia brevis (red tide) at this time.
Satellite Imagery
Current imagery from the Ocean Land Color Imager (OLCI) showing bloom location and extent.
More information related to HAB Forecasts
- Real Time Data for Gulf of Mexico Respiratory Irritation Forecast
- Archived Gulf of Mexico Forecasts
- More information about our bloom monitoring imagery
- Health information – Summary of the ways red tide can impact the health of humans and animals
- FAQs – Frequently Asked Questions about red tide and the forecasts NOAA issues.
- Harmful Algal Blooms Observing System (HABSOS) – Interactive map of past and present Gulf of Mexico HAB data
- Contributors and Data Providers
- HAB Forecast Research
- Gulf of Mexico HAB Forecast Guide – User guide to help navigate the forecast products
- Gulf of Mexico HAB Forecast Videos – Videos to help navigate the forecast products
- Gulf of Mexico HAB Forecast Enhancements – Infographic comparing Legacy (pre-August 2021) and Next Generation (enhanced) products.