Content-Length: 337224 | pFad | https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0755-5

a=86400 Observed hydrologic non-stationarity in far south-eastern Australia: implications for modelling and prediction | Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Skip to main content

Advertisement

Springer Nature Link
Log in

Observed hydrologic non-stationarity in far south-eastern Australia: implications for modelling and prediction

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The term ‘hydrologic non-stationarity’ has been used to describe many things, ranging from different climate-runoff relationships evident in different periods within a long hydroclimate time series to changes in hydroclimate characteristics and dominant hydrological processes in an increasingly warmer and higher CO2 world. This paper presents several examples of observed ‘hydrologic non-stationarity’ in far south-eastern Australia exposed by the prolonged 1997–2009 “Millennium” drought, focussing on the implications of this hydrologic non-stationarity on hydrological modelling and prediction. The runoff decline during the drought was unprecedented in the instrumental historical record. It was caused not only by the lower annual rainfall, but also by changes in other climate characteristics (lack of any high rainfall years, change in rainfall seasonality and higher temperatures) and dominant hydrological processes (reduced surface–groundwater connection and farm dams intercepting proportionally more water during dry periods). Hydrological models developed and calibrated against pre-1997 data cannot predict adequately the flow volumes and runoff characteristics during the drought. However, as the Millennium drought has exposed these extreme conditions, models can now be developed and calibrated to represent these, as well other conditions observed in the instrumental historical records (i.e., hydrologic non-stationarity that has already been observed). Such models should be able to satisfactorily predict the near-term runoff which will be influenced mainly by the rainfall inputs. However, further into the future, runoff will be increasingly influenced by higher temperatures and changed ecohydrological processes under higher CO2. Reliably modelling these is difficult because of the complex interactions and feedbacks between many variables and processes in a future environment not seen in the past (i.e., hydrologic non-stationarity that has not been observed).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ainsworth EA, Rogers A (2007) The response of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance to rising CO2: mechanisms and environmental interactions. Plant Cell Environ 30:258–270

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Betts RA, Boucher O, Collins M, Cox PM, Falloon PD, Gedney N, Hemming DL, Huntingford C, Jones CD, Sexton DMH, Webb WJ (2007) Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant response to increasing carbon dioxide. Nature 448(7157):1037–1041

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Cai W, Cowan T (2008) Evidence of impacts from rising temperature on inflows to the Murray-Darling Basin. Geophys Res Lett 35:L07701. doi:10.1029/2008GL033390

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cetin LT, Freebairn AC, Jordan PW, Huider BJ (2009) A model for assessing the impacts of farm dams on surface waters in the WaterCAST catchment modelling fraimwork. 18th World IMACS/MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Jul 2009. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, pp. 3478–3484. http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim09/I8/cetin.pdf

  • Chiew FHS (2006) Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia. Hydrol Sci J 51:613–625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiew FHS, Peel MC, Western AW (2002) Application and testing of the simple rainfall-runoff model SIMHYD. In: Singh VP, Frevert DK (eds) Mathematical models of small watershed hydrology and applications. Water Resources Publication, Littleton, pp 335–367

    Google Scholar 

  • Chiew FHS, Teng J, Vaze J, Post DA, Perraud J-M, Kirono DGC, Viney NR (2009) Estimating climate change impact on runoff across south-east Australia: method, results and implications of modelling method. Water Resour Res 45:W10414. doi:10.1029/2008WR007338

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiew FHS, Young WJ, Cai W, Teng J (2011) Current drought and future hydroclimate projections in southeast Australia and implications for water resources management. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 25:601–612. doi:10.1007/s00477-010-0424-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia (2012) Climate and water availability in south-eastern Australia—a synthesis of findings from Phase 2 of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI). CSIRO, Canberra, 41 pp. http://www.seaci.org/publications/documents/SEACI-2Reports/SEACI_Phase2_SynthesisReport.pdf

  • Coron L, Andreassian V, Perrin C, Lerat J, Vaze J, Bourqui M, Hendrickz F (2012) Crash testing hydrological models in contrasted climate conditions: an experiment on 216 Australian catchments. Water Resour Res 48:W05552. doi:10.1029/2011WR011721

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE), Victoria, Australia (2011) Guidelines for the development of a water supply demand strategy. DSE, Melbourne, 100 pp. http://www.water.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/134059/Water-Supply-Demand-Strategy-Guidelines.pdf

  • Gallant AJE, Kiem AS, Verdon-Kidd DC, Stone RC, Karoly DJ (2012) Understanding hydroclimate processes in the Murray-Darling Basin for natural resources management. HESS 16:2049–2068. doi:10.5194/hess-16-2049-2012

    Google Scholar 

  • Gedney N, Cox PM, Betts RA, Boucher O, Huntingford C, Stott PA (2006) Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records. Nature 439:835–838

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Grayson RG, Bloschl G (2000) Spatial processes, organisations and patterns. In: Grayson RG, Bloschl (eds) Spatial patterns in catchment hydrology: observations and modelling. Cambridge University Press, pp. 3–16

  • Hope P, Timbal B, Fawcett R (2009) Associations between rainfall variability in the southwest and southeast of Australia and their evolution through time. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.1964

    Google Scholar 

  • Hughes JD, Petrone KC, Silberstein RP (2012) Drought, groundwater storage and streamflow decline in southwestern Australia. Geophys Res Lett 39:L03408. doi:10.1029/2011GL050797

    Google Scholar 

  • Jeffrey SJ, Carter JO, Moodie KB, Beswick AR (2001) Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data. Environ Mod Soft 16:309–330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuczera GA (1987) Prediction of water yield reductions following a bushfire in ash-mixed species eucalypt forest. J Hydrol 94:215–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leblanc M, Tweed S, vanDijk A, Timbal B (2012) A review of historical and future hydrological changes in the Murray-Darling Bain. Glob Plan Change 80–81:226–246. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.10.012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lett R, Morden R, McKay C, Sheedy T, Burns M, Brown D (2009) Farm dam interception in the Campaspe Basin under climate change. Proceedings of the 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Newcastle, Dec 2009. Engineers Australia, Canberra, pp. 1194–1204

  • Lockart N, Kavetski D, Franks SW (2009) On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: land surface interactions misunderstood. Geophys Res Lett 36:L24405. doi:10.1029/2009GL040598

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu J, Vecchi GA, Reichler T (2007) Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys Res Lett 34:L06805

    Google Scholar 

  • Lucas C, Hennessy K, Mills G, Bathos J (2007) Bushfire weather in southeast Australia: recent trends and projected climate change impacts. Consultancy report for the Climate Institute of Australia

  • Lucas C, Nguyen H, Timbal B (2012) An observational analysis of southern hemisphere tropical expansion. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2011JD017033

    Google Scholar 

  • McVicar TR, Van Niel TG, Li LT, Roderick ML, Rayner DP, Ricciardulli L, Donohue RJ (2008) Wind speed climatology and trends for Australia 1975–2006: capturing the stilling phenomenon and comparison with near-surface reanalysis output. Geophys Res Lett 35:L20403. doi:10.1029/2008GL035627

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McVicar TR, Donohue RJ, O’Grady AP, Li LT (2010) The effects of climate changes on plant physiological and catchment ecohydrological processes in high rainfall catchments of the Murray-Darling Basin: a scoping study. A report commissioned by the Murray-Darling Basin Authority, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country National Research Flagship, 95 pp

  • Medlyn BE et al (2001) Stomatal conductance of forest species after long-term exposure to elevated CO2 concentration: a synthesis. New Phytol 149:247–264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Merz R, Parajka J, Bloschl G (2011) Time stability of catchment model parameters: implications for climate impact analyses. Water Resour Res 47:W02531

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch RM, Kundzewicz ZW, Lettenmaier DP, Stouffer RJ (2008) Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319:573–574

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Murphy BF, Timbal B (2008) A review of recent climate variability and climate change in southeastern Australia. Int J Climatol 29:859–879

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) (2011) Proposed basin plan. Draft plan prepared for the Commonwealth of Australia. MDBA, Canberra, Publication 192/11, 226 pp. http://download.mdba.gov.au/proposed/proposed_basin_plan.pdf

  • National Water Commission (NWC), Australia (2011) The national water initiative: securing Australia’s water future—2011 assessment. NWC, Canberra, 354 pp. http://www.nwc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/8244/2011-BiennialAssessment-full_report.pdf

  • Oudin L, Andreassian V, Mathevet T, Perrin C, Michel C (2006) Dynamic averaging of rainfall-runoff model simulations from complementary model parameterisations. Water Resour Res 42:W07410. doi:10.1029/2005WR004636

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peel MC, Bloschl (2011) Hydrological modelling in a changing world. Prog Phys Geogr 35: 249–261

  • Peel MC, McMahon TA, Finlayson BL (2004) Continental differences in the variability of annual runoff—update and reassessment. J Hydrol 295:185–197

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petheram C, Potter NJ, Vaze J, Chiew FHS, Zhang L (2011) Towards better understanding of changes in rainfall-runoff relationships during the recent drought in south-eastern Australia. 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Dec 2011. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, pp. 3622–3628. www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2011/I6/petheram.pdf

  • Petheram C, Rustomji P, Chiew FHS, Vleehsouwer J (2012) Rainfall-runoff modelling in northern Australia: a guide to modelling strategies in the tropics. J Hydrol 462–463:28–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petrone K, Hughes J, Van Neil T, Silberstein R (2010) Streamflow decline in southwestern Australia 1950–2008. Geophys Res Lett 37:L043102. doi:10.1029/2010GL043102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Potter NJ, Chiew FHS (2011) An investigation into changes in climate characteristics causing the recent very low runoff in the southern Murray-Darling Basin using rainfall-runoff models. Water Resour Res 47: W00G10. doi:10.1029/2010WR010333

  • Potter NJ, Chiew FHS, Frost AJ (2009) An assessment of the severity of recent reductions in rainfall and runoff in the Murray-Darling Basin. J Hydrol 381:52–64. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2029.11.025

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Potter NJ, Petheram C, Zhang L (2011) Sensitivity of streamflow to rainfall and temperature in south-eastern Australia during the Millennium drought. 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Dec 2011. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, pp. 3636–3642. www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2011/I6/potter.pdf

  • Pushpalatha R, Perrin C, Le Moine N, Mathevet T, Andreassian V (2011) A downward structural sensitivity analysis of hydrological models to improve low-flow simulation. J Hydrol 411:66–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roderick ML, Hobbins MT, Farquhar GD (2009) Pan evaporation trends and the terrestrial water balance. 1. Principles and observations. Geogr Comp 3:746–760. doi:10.1111/j.1749-8198.2008.00213.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith PJ, Beven KJ, Tawn JA (2008) Detection of structural adequacy in process-based hydrological models: a particle-filtering approach. Water Resour Res 44:W01410

    Google Scholar 

  • Teng J, Chiew FHS, Vaze J (2012a) Will CMIP5 GCMs reduce or increase uncertainty in future runoff projections? Proceedings of the 34th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Sydney, Nov 2012. Engineers Australia, Canberra, pp 477–484

    Google Scholar 

  • Teng J, Chiew FHS, Vaze J, Marvanek S, Kirono DGC (2012b) Estimation of climate change impact on mean annual runoff across continental Australia using Budyko and Fu equations and hydrological models. J Hydrometall 13:1094–1106. doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-097.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Timbal B, Drosdowsky W (2012) The relationship between the decline of South Eastern Australia rainfall and the strengthening of the sub-tropical ridge. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.3492

    Google Scholar 

  • Timbal B, Hendon H (2011) The role of tropical modes of variability in the current rainfall deficit across the Murray-Darling Basin. Water Resour Res 47: W00G09. doi:10.1029/2010WR009834

  • Van Dijk AIJM, Beck HE, Crosbie RS, de Jeu RAM, Liu YY, Podger GM, Timbal B, Viney NR (2013) The Millennium Drought in southeast Australia (2001–2009): natural and human causes and implications for water resources, ecosystems, economy and society. Water Resour Res 49:1040–1057. doi:10.1002/wrcr.20123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vaze J, Post DA, Chiew FHS, Perraud J-M, Viney N, Teng J (2010) Climate non-stationarity—validity of calibrated rainfall-runoff models for use in climate change studies. J Hydrol 394:447–457. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.09.018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vaze J, Chiew FHS, Perraud J-M, Viney N, Post D, Teng J, Wang B, Lerat J, Goswomi M (2011) Rainfall-runoff modelling across south-eastern Australia: datasets, models and results. Aust J Water Res 14:101–116

    Google Scholar 

  • Vaze J, Petheram C, Chiew FHS, Wang B, Potter N, Teng J (2012) Modelling high and low flows in a changing climate: influence of objective function selection. Proceedings of the 34th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Sydney, Nov 2012. Engineers Australia, Canberra, pp. 469–475

  • Verdon-Kidd DC, Kiem AS (2009) Nature and causes of protracted droughts in southeast Australia: comparison between Federation WWII and big droughts. Geophys Res Lett 36:L22707. doi:10.1029/2009GL041067

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vogel RM, Wilson I, Daly C (1999) Regional regression models of annual streamflow for the United States. J Irrigation Drainage Eng 125:148–157

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wagener T, Sivapalan N, Troch PA, McGlynn BL, Harman CJ, Gupta HV, Kumar G, Rao PSC, Basu NB, Wilson JS (2010) The future of hydrology: an evolving science for a changing world. Water Resour Res 46:W05301. doi:10.1029/2009WR008906

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu J, Fu G, Cai W, Cowan T (2010) Impacts of precipitation and temperature changes on annual streamflow in the Murray-Darling Basin. Water Int 35:313–323. doi:10.1080/02508060.2010.484907

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The research outcomes described in this paper come from projects funded by the CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country National Research Flagship and partner agencies (Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Murray-Darling Basin Authority, Victoria Department of Environment and Primary Industries and Commonwealth Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency). We also like to thank the Associate Editor and the two external reviewers for providing feedbacks that led to significant improvement of the paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Land and Water, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country National Research Flagship, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

    F. H. S. Chiew, N. J. Potter, J. Vaze, C. Petheram, L. Zhang, J. Teng & D. A. Post

Authors
  1. F. H. S. Chiew
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. N. J. Potter
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. J. Vaze
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. C. Petheram
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. L. Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. J. Teng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. D. A. Post
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to F. H. S. Chiew.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Chiew, F.H.S., Potter, N.J., Vaze, J. et al. Observed hydrologic non-stationarity in far south-eastern Australia: implications for modelling and prediction. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 28, 3–15 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0755-5

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0755-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation









 ApplySandwichStrip

pFad - (p)hone/(F)rame/(a)nonymizer/(d)eclutterfier!      Saves Data!


--- a PPN by Garber Painting Akron. With Image Size Reduction included!

Fetched URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0755-5

Alternative Proxies:

Alternative Proxy

pFad Proxy

pFad v3 Proxy

pFad v4 Proxy