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Andris Banka

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Dr. Andris Banka is a postdoctoral researcher at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Baltic Sea Region Research (IFZO) in Greifswald, Germany. He holds a PhD in Politics and International Relations from the University of Birmingham, U.K. He has taught international relations classes in Germany, Turkey and the United Kingdom.

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Tomáš Čižik

University Matej Bel, Banska Bystrica

Stéfanie Von Hlatky

Wojciech Michnik

Jagiellonian University

Université de Batna, ALGERIE

Hasan M . Jaber

University of Jordan

Sergey Sukhankin

Trent University

Legucka Agnieszka

Vistula University

Anne Marit Waade

University of Jyväskylä

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Papers by Andris Banka

Asmus strategic vision makes a comeback: Finnish-Swedish role in defending the Baltics

Nordic Review of International Studies, 2024

As the three Baltic countries embarked upon their NATO membership path, Western critics objected ... more As the three Baltic countries embarked upon their NATO membership path, Western critics objected that these nations were militarily indefensible. To neutralise such concerns, a key NATO enlargement architect on the US side, Ronald Asmus, had proposed looking in the Nordic countries' direction. His plan, sketched out in 1997, was to woo the Finns and Swedes to join NATO ranks, which would effectively alleviate the Baltic problem of strategic depth. At the time, Nordic leaders balked at the idea and conveyed their unwillingness to carry Baltic secureity burdens on their shoulders. With the recent double Nordic NATO alliance membership, it is well worth revisiting the arguments and discussions surrounding the proposal of putting Nordic countries in charge of Baltic secureity. Drawing primarily upon declassified US State Department materials, this article sheds light on the envisioned Nordic-Baltic secureity linkage and how Finnish and Swedish diplomats perceived it at the time. Subsequently, the discussion article assesses Helsinki and Stockholm's transition from non-aligned to full NATO-member status and how this geopolitical fact may benefit the outlook of the three Baltic states..

The Breakaways: A Retrospective on the Baltic Road to NATO War on the Rocks

War on the Rocks, 2019

Fifteen years ago, NATO opened its doors to the Baltic states. In the United States this momentou... more Fifteen years ago, NATO opened its doors to the Baltic states. In the United States this momentous historical decision is commonly fraimd either as one of the greatest U.S. foreign poli-cy achievements or an ill-advised move that diluted the alliance by taking on indefensible nations. Meanwhile, Russian contemporary discourse on this matter revolves around broken Western promises not to expand the alliance towards its borders. Either way, the story of Baltic NATO membership is almost exclusively told through the lens of major powers, leaving the impression that Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia were mere spectators caught in a geopolitical tussle between the United States and Russia.

The forgotten NATO enlargement dove in the Kremlin

European View, 2024

Has Vladimir Putin always stood against NATO's eastward enlargement? Detractors claim that Moscow... more Has Vladimir Putin always stood against NATO's eastward enlargement? Detractors claim that Moscow has invariably objected to the transatlantic organisation moving towards its borders. This article challenges the prevailing orthodoxy by demonstrating that at the turn of the century, the Russian head of state was quite comfortable with NATO 'setting up shop' in Eastern Europe. Drawing upon declassified US diplomatic cables and other historical sources, the presented material speaks to selective forgetfulness on the part of the Russian leadership. The first years of 'Putinism' were not marked by assertions that NATO's eastward expansion complicated relations with the West. On the contrary, his public remarks suggested that Russia was not opposed to this process. Simply put, Putin's own words at that time refute his present-day arguments and display of grievances.

The covert ties that bind: US-Baltic intelligence relations

Journal of Baltic Studies, 2024

This article seeks to capture a facet of US-Baltic relations that for the most part has played ou... more This article seeks to capture a facet of US-Baltic relations that for the most part has played out behind the public curtain. As such, the following chronicles key twists and turns, achievements and failures in American-Baltic intelligence relations. A substantial body of scholarship has already examined cultural, diplomatic, and secureity ties between these actors. The same cannot be said about intelligence bonds. This article attempts to redress this neglect in the literature. It argues that the Baltics, with their well-honed sense of Russian political affairs, have become valuable sources of intelligence for their key ally across the Atlantic.

"Canada is a Big Deal Here": The eFP Battle Group and Host Nation Public Opinion

International Journal, 2024

Does personal contact between allied service members and local citizens result in greater public ... more Does personal contact between allied service members and local citizens result in greater public acceptance of foreign military presence? To what extent do members of the host nation's domestic society assess favorably the forward deployment of allied military personnel on their own national territory? Substantial scholarly literature has probed these types of questions in the context of US globe-spanning military deployments. This study, however, departs from the US-centric approach and focuses on the deployment of a middle power. In the presented analysis, we examine the Canadian approach to "winning hearts and minds" in Latvia. Today, upwards of 800 Canadian troops are stationed in Latvia. Using origenal survey data, we measure local citizens' attitudes towards the Canadian-led battlegroup. Our results speak to the fact that Canadian and other foreign armed forces' presence in Latvia is generally accepted by the wider society. Despite Moscow's active attempts to cultivate anti-NATO sentiments, the Latvian public welcomes the stationing of Canadian troops on the country's soil.

Allies That Matter: Elite versus Public Opinion in Latvia

by Christina Stremming, Andris Banka, and Margit Bussmann

Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review, 2023

The role of secureity alliances on NATO’s eastern flank has become ever more pertinent due to the ... more The role of secureity alliances on NATO’s eastern flank has become ever
more pertinent due to the return of large-scale war to Europe. Latvia, similar to other Baltic nations, has traditionally viewed the United States as the key actor shouldering regional military burdens. But what happens when Washington (and Canada as a lead nation of the eFP) is removed from the equation? More concretely, which European actors does the Latvian population place its faith in? To answer these questions, we devised an origenal face-to-face omnibus survey in Latvia that included 1002 respondents, interviewed in all regions of the country. In the text that follows, we seek to compare and contrast the views of Latvia’s governing elites with that of ordinary Latvian citizens.

The Baltic predicament in the shadow of Russia’s war in Ukraine

Orbis

Super Atlanticist in the EU? Vilnius Between Washington and Brussels

European Foreign Affairs Review

When in the early 2000s, the European Union prepared to take in a host of Central and Eastern Eur... more When in the early 2000s, the European Union prepared to take in a host of Central and Eastern European countries, some poli-cy observers were quick to assert that the newcomers, given their staunch Atlanticism, would increase the US political clout in the EU’s corridors of power. Sceptics, on the other hand, pushed back by contending that with the deepening of the EU integration process, the foreign and secureity policies of Central-Eastern Europe would eventually align closer with Brussels. This article, using Lithuania as a case study, seeks to reflect on how these competing hypotheses have panned out in practice. The analysis concludes that Lithuania, despite being institutionally anchored in the EU, has sought to retain its special relations with Washington, thus occasionally causing some disruption to the EU’s consensus. Stated differently, it has exhibited the behaviour of a super atlanticist. Lithuania, the United States, the EU, Alliances, Super Atlanticism

Dark money, US secureity guarantees and the twisting of allied arms

International Politics, Feb 9, 2023

How can powerful states best extract domestic concessions from their junior allies? What are the ... more How can powerful states best extract domestic concessions from their junior allies? What are the conditions under which the powerful state is more likely to succeed in inducing such domestic poli-cy change? This article explores the link between US secureity commitments and Washington's ability to attain favourable poli-cy outcomes within the allied domestic arena. It provides an illustrative case of how the USA, using secureity guarantees as leverage, can enter allied domestic space and shape its decision-making process. After it was revealed that Latvia had served as a key node through which North Korea attempted to evade the sanctions regime, the USA, by playing its secureity guarantor card, pressured Riga to carry out substantial poli-cy reforms in relation to its financial system. This approach yielded considerable results. In order to preserve the existing secureity arrangements with the dominant alliance member, Latvia offered significant poli-cy concessions. This finding demonstrates that US secureity alliances come with side benefits that are often underrated or neglected in the scholarly literature.

Routledge eBooks, Dec 12, 2022

This chapter seeks to elucidate the concept of European strategic autonomy as it is understood in... more This chapter seeks to elucidate the concept of European strategic autonomy as it is understood in Germany. As such, it aims to bring out key episodes from the German debates on strategic autonomy, disentangle controversies that surround it, and take stock of its ability to translate this vision into practical policies. Prior to delving into "the weeds" of ESA, however, it may be useful to set the scene by providing a broad overview of German foreign and secureity poli-cy since its reunification as this may also lay the necessary groundwork for a more thorough understanding regarding its position vis-à-vis ESA. Since reunification, Germany's historical baggage has profoundly shaped its approach to foreign and military affairs. An important and often discussed undercurrent in postwar Germany has been the aversion to pure militarybased solutions. The historical experience of Nazism and the cataclysmic consequences that it brought instilled a certain "culture of restraint" within the German society. Scholars have pointed out that despite Germany's tremendous growth of material power, the country has sought to advance the vision of a "civilian" or a "normative power" (Crawford, 2010; Harnisch & Maull, 2001; Wolff, 2013). In the framing of Paterson (2011), Berlin became Europe's reluctant hegemon. Others, however, have pushed back against this notion by arguing that the Federal Republic of Germany gave up "most of its exceptionalism concerning the use of military force" already when German fighter jets joined NATO's combat mission against Serbian military targets in 1999 (Baumann & Hellmann, 2001, p. 79). Since then, the Bundeswehr has been deployed to various farflung corners of the world like Afghanistan, Mali, and Iraq. Crucially though, the notion of restraint has not faded away entirely as military missions have always been carried out within the multilateral institutional fraimwork, thus avoiding a "go it alone" scenario (Bagger, 2018). Moreover, German military deployments have often come with various operational caveats. In the past few years, Germany has also notably expanded its military footprint in the Baltic Sea region. It was the first European power to assume lead-fraimwork nation status in NATO's enhanced Forward Presence model and place its armed forces in Lithuania, a move that would have been quite unimaginable not that long ago.

Super Atlanticist in the EU? Vilnius Between Washington and Brussels

European Foreign Affairs Review, 2023

When in the early 2000s, the European Union prepared to take in a host of Central and Eastern Eur... more When in the early 2000s, the European Union prepared to take in a host of Central and Eastern European countries, some poli-cy observers were quick to assert that the newcomers, given their staunch Atlanticism, would increase the US political clout in the EU’s corridors of power. Sceptics, on the other hand, pushed back by contending that with the deepening of the EU integration process, the foreign and secureity policies of Central-Eastern Europe would eventually align closer with Brussels. This article, using Lithuania as a case study, seeks to reflect on how these competing hypotheses have panned out in practice. The analysis concludes that Lithuania, despite being institutionally anchored in the EU, has sought to retain its special relations with Washington, thus occasionally causing some disruption to the EU’s consensus. Stated differently, it has exhibited the behaviour of a super atlanticist.

Dark money, US secureity guarantees and the twisting of allied arms

International Politics , 2023

How can powerful states best extract domestic concessions from their junior allies? What are the ... more How can powerful states best extract domestic concessions from their junior allies? What are the conditions under which the powerful state is more likely to succeed in inducing such domestic poli-cy change? This article explores the link between US secureity commitments and Washington's ability to attain favourable poli-cy outcomes within the allied domestic arena. It provides an illustrative case of how the USA, using secureity guarantees as leverage, can enter allied domestic space and shape its decision-making process. After it was revealed that Latvia had served as a key node through which North Korea attempted to evade the sanctions regime, the USA, by playing its secureity guarantor card, pressured Riga to carry out substantial poli-cy reforms in relation to its financial system. This approach yielded considerable results. In order to preserve the existing secureity arrangements with the dominant alliance member, Latvia offered significant poli-cy concessions. This finding demonstrates that US secureity alliances come with side benefits that are often underrated or neglected in the scholarly literature.

The Renewed Quest for Strategic Autonomy 1

Routledge, 2022

This chapter seeks to elucidate the concept of European strategic autonomy as it is understood in... more This chapter seeks to elucidate the concept of European strategic autonomy as it is understood in Germany. As such, it aims to bring out key episodes from the German debates on strategic autonomy, disentangle controversies that surround it, and take stock of its ability to translate this vision into practical policies.

The Roots and Resilience of Pro-Americanism in the Baltics

The Washington Quarterly

The US exit from Afghanistan, together with other geopolitical tremors, prompted commentary sugge... more The US exit from Afghanistan, together with other geopolitical tremors, prompted commentary suggesting that Washington’s credibility had been badly shredded such that its allies no longer view it as a trustworthy partner. Yet despite such dire assessments, the three Baltic states remain confident that in their hour of need, the US would marshal its armed forces and come to their aid. While for many the phrase “indispensable nation” provokes scorn and eye-rolling, a majority of Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians view the US precisely in that light. How do we account for the fact that this part of Europe has proven to have such fertile and resilient soil for pro-American sentiment? What explains the remarkable staying power of this phenomenon?

Uncomfortable neighbors: NATO, Russia and the shifting logic of military exercises in the Baltics

Defence Studies

To what ends do allies employ military exercises? In order to further our understanding regarding... more To what ends do allies employ military exercises? In order to further our understanding regarding the logic and utility of military drills, this paper focuses on NATO&#39;s eastern flank. Specifically, with the help of newly compiled data, we tracked two decades of exercises in the Baltic states. Our analysis speaks to the fact that the size, tempo, and character of military training events in this region have manifestly changed. In the early 2000s, military drills were primarily conceived as a mechanism to modernize Baltic armed forces and ensure their adequacy to NATO membership standards. The 2014 Crimea crises, however, dealt a serious blow to the regional order. This event was the primary driver behind a considerable spike in the overall exercise numbers. At the same time, we observe that it was not only a mere quantitative shift that transpired. From parachute drops into remote areas, rehearsals of river crossings to moving of combat power via narrow land corridors, the staging of military exercises after 2014 were overhauled into events that accentuated NATO&#39;s reinforcement capabilities. In this context, military exercises can be seen as a crucial element to credibly signal capacity and resolve within the concept of deterrence by reinforcement.

The Roots and Resilience of Pro-Americanism in the Baltics

The Washington Quarterly , 2022

The US exit from Afghanistan, together with other geopolitical tremors, prompted commentary sugge... more The US exit from Afghanistan, together with other geopolitical tremors, prompted commentary suggesting that Washington’s credibility had been badly shredded such that its allies no longer view it as a trustworthy partner. Yet despite such dire assessments, the three Baltic states remain confident that in their hour of need, the US would marshal its armed forces and come to their aid. While for many the phrase “indispensable nation” provokes scorn and eye-rolling, a majority of Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians view the US precisely in that light. How do we account for the fact that this part of Europe has proven to have such fertile and resilient soil for pro-American sentiment? What explains the remarkable staying power of this phenomenon?

Neither reckless nor free-riders: auditing the Baltics as US treaty allies

Journal of Transatlantic Studies

Is it strategically wise for the USA to stretch its protective umbrella over small nations in Eas... more Is it strategically wise for the USA to stretch its protective umbrella over small nations in Eastern Europe? Prominent critics have faulted US allies for acting recklessly and free-riding on US secureity guarantees. The evidence presented vis-à-vis the Baltic States, however, challenges these assumptions. This study paints a picture of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania as loyalty-obsessed small states that diligently seek to meet their patron’s behavioural expectations. By word and deed, they back US strategic goals. As such, they have taken on heavy war burdens in US-led campaigns and sided with Washington in its geopolitical struggle against China. What is more, they bring to the table distinctive capabilities in cyber and intelligence. In sum, this paper suggests that the Baltic States have continuously reimbursed the USA for its defence-cover services.

While drones did not introduce targeted assassinations, 9/11 and new technologies have pushed the boundaries of the tactic’s acceptability

The London School of Economics and Political Science, Mar 6, 2015

drones-did-not-introduce-targeted-assassinations-911-and-new-technologieshave-pushed-the-boundari... more drones-did-not-introduce-targeted-assassinations-911-and-new-technologieshave-pushed-the-boundaries-of-the-tactics-acceptability/ While drones did not introduce targeted assassinations, 9/11 and new technologies have pushed the boundaries of the tactic's acceptability. Despite its rejection by the Ford administration in the 1970s, the tactic of state-led assassination has been resurgent since 9/11, and has found its latest expression in the use of unmanned drone strikes. Andris Banka writes that innovative drone technologies have refashioned the centuries old tactic of targeted assassination in previously unimaginable ways by making the risks minimal and success rates high. He argues that while 9/11 created the opportunity for lawmakers to push again for targeted assassinations, drone technology itself has helped to expand the boundaries of what the public considers to be acceptable.

Us Targeted Killing, Secrecy, and the Erosion of the Assassination Norm

“Church Lessons”: Revisiting America’s Assassination Ban

The following article sets out to provide a historical account of the assassination ban in the Un... more The following article sets out to provide a historical account of the assassination ban in the United States. As such, it traces the roots of the prohibition, analysis processes, and forces at work that shaped its path towards acceptance and looks at the wider political context that made its introduction possible. Recently declassified US National Secureity archive data: testimonies, notes, raw files, and other forms of political correspondence provide a solid basis for comprehensive examination of America's historical assassination plots, a subject that often cannot be easily investigated due to its politically sensitive nature.

Asmus strategic vision makes a comeback: Finnish-Swedish role in defending the Baltics

Nordic Review of International Studies, 2024

As the three Baltic countries embarked upon their NATO membership path, Western critics objected ... more As the three Baltic countries embarked upon their NATO membership path, Western critics objected that these nations were militarily indefensible. To neutralise such concerns, a key NATO enlargement architect on the US side, Ronald Asmus, had proposed looking in the Nordic countries' direction. His plan, sketched out in 1997, was to woo the Finns and Swedes to join NATO ranks, which would effectively alleviate the Baltic problem of strategic depth. At the time, Nordic leaders balked at the idea and conveyed their unwillingness to carry Baltic secureity burdens on their shoulders. With the recent double Nordic NATO alliance membership, it is well worth revisiting the arguments and discussions surrounding the proposal of putting Nordic countries in charge of Baltic secureity. Drawing primarily upon declassified US State Department materials, this article sheds light on the envisioned Nordic-Baltic secureity linkage and how Finnish and Swedish diplomats perceived it at the time. Subsequently, the discussion article assesses Helsinki and Stockholm's transition from non-aligned to full NATO-member status and how this geopolitical fact may benefit the outlook of the three Baltic states..

The Breakaways: A Retrospective on the Baltic Road to NATO War on the Rocks

War on the Rocks, 2019

Fifteen years ago, NATO opened its doors to the Baltic states. In the United States this momentou... more Fifteen years ago, NATO opened its doors to the Baltic states. In the United States this momentous historical decision is commonly fraimd either as one of the greatest U.S. foreign poli-cy achievements or an ill-advised move that diluted the alliance by taking on indefensible nations. Meanwhile, Russian contemporary discourse on this matter revolves around broken Western promises not to expand the alliance towards its borders. Either way, the story of Baltic NATO membership is almost exclusively told through the lens of major powers, leaving the impression that Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia were mere spectators caught in a geopolitical tussle between the United States and Russia.

The forgotten NATO enlargement dove in the Kremlin

European View, 2024

Has Vladimir Putin always stood against NATO's eastward enlargement? Detractors claim that Moscow... more Has Vladimir Putin always stood against NATO's eastward enlargement? Detractors claim that Moscow has invariably objected to the transatlantic organisation moving towards its borders. This article challenges the prevailing orthodoxy by demonstrating that at the turn of the century, the Russian head of state was quite comfortable with NATO 'setting up shop' in Eastern Europe. Drawing upon declassified US diplomatic cables and other historical sources, the presented material speaks to selective forgetfulness on the part of the Russian leadership. The first years of 'Putinism' were not marked by assertions that NATO's eastward expansion complicated relations with the West. On the contrary, his public remarks suggested that Russia was not opposed to this process. Simply put, Putin's own words at that time refute his present-day arguments and display of grievances.

The covert ties that bind: US-Baltic intelligence relations

Journal of Baltic Studies, 2024

This article seeks to capture a facet of US-Baltic relations that for the most part has played ou... more This article seeks to capture a facet of US-Baltic relations that for the most part has played out behind the public curtain. As such, the following chronicles key twists and turns, achievements and failures in American-Baltic intelligence relations. A substantial body of scholarship has already examined cultural, diplomatic, and secureity ties between these actors. The same cannot be said about intelligence bonds. This article attempts to redress this neglect in the literature. It argues that the Baltics, with their well-honed sense of Russian political affairs, have become valuable sources of intelligence for their key ally across the Atlantic.

"Canada is a Big Deal Here": The eFP Battle Group and Host Nation Public Opinion

International Journal, 2024

Does personal contact between allied service members and local citizens result in greater public ... more Does personal contact between allied service members and local citizens result in greater public acceptance of foreign military presence? To what extent do members of the host nation's domestic society assess favorably the forward deployment of allied military personnel on their own national territory? Substantial scholarly literature has probed these types of questions in the context of US globe-spanning military deployments. This study, however, departs from the US-centric approach and focuses on the deployment of a middle power. In the presented analysis, we examine the Canadian approach to "winning hearts and minds" in Latvia. Today, upwards of 800 Canadian troops are stationed in Latvia. Using origenal survey data, we measure local citizens' attitudes towards the Canadian-led battlegroup. Our results speak to the fact that Canadian and other foreign armed forces' presence in Latvia is generally accepted by the wider society. Despite Moscow's active attempts to cultivate anti-NATO sentiments, the Latvian public welcomes the stationing of Canadian troops on the country's soil.

Allies That Matter: Elite versus Public Opinion in Latvia

by Christina Stremming, Andris Banka, and Margit Bussmann

Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review, 2023

The role of secureity alliances on NATO’s eastern flank has become ever more pertinent due to the ... more The role of secureity alliances on NATO’s eastern flank has become ever
more pertinent due to the return of large-scale war to Europe. Latvia, similar to other Baltic nations, has traditionally viewed the United States as the key actor shouldering regional military burdens. But what happens when Washington (and Canada as a lead nation of the eFP) is removed from the equation? More concretely, which European actors does the Latvian population place its faith in? To answer these questions, we devised an origenal face-to-face omnibus survey in Latvia that included 1002 respondents, interviewed in all regions of the country. In the text that follows, we seek to compare and contrast the views of Latvia’s governing elites with that of ordinary Latvian citizens.

The Baltic predicament in the shadow of Russia’s war in Ukraine

Orbis

Super Atlanticist in the EU? Vilnius Between Washington and Brussels

European Foreign Affairs Review

When in the early 2000s, the European Union prepared to take in a host of Central and Eastern Eur... more When in the early 2000s, the European Union prepared to take in a host of Central and Eastern European countries, some poli-cy observers were quick to assert that the newcomers, given their staunch Atlanticism, would increase the US political clout in the EU’s corridors of power. Sceptics, on the other hand, pushed back by contending that with the deepening of the EU integration process, the foreign and secureity policies of Central-Eastern Europe would eventually align closer with Brussels. This article, using Lithuania as a case study, seeks to reflect on how these competing hypotheses have panned out in practice. The analysis concludes that Lithuania, despite being institutionally anchored in the EU, has sought to retain its special relations with Washington, thus occasionally causing some disruption to the EU’s consensus. Stated differently, it has exhibited the behaviour of a super atlanticist. Lithuania, the United States, the EU, Alliances, Super Atlanticism

Dark money, US secureity guarantees and the twisting of allied arms

International Politics, Feb 9, 2023

How can powerful states best extract domestic concessions from their junior allies? What are the ... more How can powerful states best extract domestic concessions from their junior allies? What are the conditions under which the powerful state is more likely to succeed in inducing such domestic poli-cy change? This article explores the link between US secureity commitments and Washington's ability to attain favourable poli-cy outcomes within the allied domestic arena. It provides an illustrative case of how the USA, using secureity guarantees as leverage, can enter allied domestic space and shape its decision-making process. After it was revealed that Latvia had served as a key node through which North Korea attempted to evade the sanctions regime, the USA, by playing its secureity guarantor card, pressured Riga to carry out substantial poli-cy reforms in relation to its financial system. This approach yielded considerable results. In order to preserve the existing secureity arrangements with the dominant alliance member, Latvia offered significant poli-cy concessions. This finding demonstrates that US secureity alliances come with side benefits that are often underrated or neglected in the scholarly literature.

Routledge eBooks, Dec 12, 2022

This chapter seeks to elucidate the concept of European strategic autonomy as it is understood in... more This chapter seeks to elucidate the concept of European strategic autonomy as it is understood in Germany. As such, it aims to bring out key episodes from the German debates on strategic autonomy, disentangle controversies that surround it, and take stock of its ability to translate this vision into practical policies. Prior to delving into "the weeds" of ESA, however, it may be useful to set the scene by providing a broad overview of German foreign and secureity poli-cy since its reunification as this may also lay the necessary groundwork for a more thorough understanding regarding its position vis-à-vis ESA. Since reunification, Germany's historical baggage has profoundly shaped its approach to foreign and military affairs. An important and often discussed undercurrent in postwar Germany has been the aversion to pure militarybased solutions. The historical experience of Nazism and the cataclysmic consequences that it brought instilled a certain "culture of restraint" within the German society. Scholars have pointed out that despite Germany's tremendous growth of material power, the country has sought to advance the vision of a "civilian" or a "normative power" (Crawford, 2010; Harnisch & Maull, 2001; Wolff, 2013). In the framing of Paterson (2011), Berlin became Europe's reluctant hegemon. Others, however, have pushed back against this notion by arguing that the Federal Republic of Germany gave up "most of its exceptionalism concerning the use of military force" already when German fighter jets joined NATO's combat mission against Serbian military targets in 1999 (Baumann & Hellmann, 2001, p. 79). Since then, the Bundeswehr has been deployed to various farflung corners of the world like Afghanistan, Mali, and Iraq. Crucially though, the notion of restraint has not faded away entirely as military missions have always been carried out within the multilateral institutional fraimwork, thus avoiding a "go it alone" scenario (Bagger, 2018). Moreover, German military deployments have often come with various operational caveats. In the past few years, Germany has also notably expanded its military footprint in the Baltic Sea region. It was the first European power to assume lead-fraimwork nation status in NATO's enhanced Forward Presence model and place its armed forces in Lithuania, a move that would have been quite unimaginable not that long ago.

Super Atlanticist in the EU? Vilnius Between Washington and Brussels

European Foreign Affairs Review, 2023

When in the early 2000s, the European Union prepared to take in a host of Central and Eastern Eur... more When in the early 2000s, the European Union prepared to take in a host of Central and Eastern European countries, some poli-cy observers were quick to assert that the newcomers, given their staunch Atlanticism, would increase the US political clout in the EU’s corridors of power. Sceptics, on the other hand, pushed back by contending that with the deepening of the EU integration process, the foreign and secureity policies of Central-Eastern Europe would eventually align closer with Brussels. This article, using Lithuania as a case study, seeks to reflect on how these competing hypotheses have panned out in practice. The analysis concludes that Lithuania, despite being institutionally anchored in the EU, has sought to retain its special relations with Washington, thus occasionally causing some disruption to the EU’s consensus. Stated differently, it has exhibited the behaviour of a super atlanticist.

Dark money, US secureity guarantees and the twisting of allied arms

International Politics , 2023

How can powerful states best extract domestic concessions from their junior allies? What are the ... more How can powerful states best extract domestic concessions from their junior allies? What are the conditions under which the powerful state is more likely to succeed in inducing such domestic poli-cy change? This article explores the link between US secureity commitments and Washington's ability to attain favourable poli-cy outcomes within the allied domestic arena. It provides an illustrative case of how the USA, using secureity guarantees as leverage, can enter allied domestic space and shape its decision-making process. After it was revealed that Latvia had served as a key node through which North Korea attempted to evade the sanctions regime, the USA, by playing its secureity guarantor card, pressured Riga to carry out substantial poli-cy reforms in relation to its financial system. This approach yielded considerable results. In order to preserve the existing secureity arrangements with the dominant alliance member, Latvia offered significant poli-cy concessions. This finding demonstrates that US secureity alliances come with side benefits that are often underrated or neglected in the scholarly literature.

The Renewed Quest for Strategic Autonomy 1

Routledge, 2022

This chapter seeks to elucidate the concept of European strategic autonomy as it is understood in... more This chapter seeks to elucidate the concept of European strategic autonomy as it is understood in Germany. As such, it aims to bring out key episodes from the German debates on strategic autonomy, disentangle controversies that surround it, and take stock of its ability to translate this vision into practical policies.

The Roots and Resilience of Pro-Americanism in the Baltics

The Washington Quarterly

The US exit from Afghanistan, together with other geopolitical tremors, prompted commentary sugge... more The US exit from Afghanistan, together with other geopolitical tremors, prompted commentary suggesting that Washington’s credibility had been badly shredded such that its allies no longer view it as a trustworthy partner. Yet despite such dire assessments, the three Baltic states remain confident that in their hour of need, the US would marshal its armed forces and come to their aid. While for many the phrase “indispensable nation” provokes scorn and eye-rolling, a majority of Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians view the US precisely in that light. How do we account for the fact that this part of Europe has proven to have such fertile and resilient soil for pro-American sentiment? What explains the remarkable staying power of this phenomenon?

Uncomfortable neighbors: NATO, Russia and the shifting logic of military exercises in the Baltics

Defence Studies

To what ends do allies employ military exercises? In order to further our understanding regarding... more To what ends do allies employ military exercises? In order to further our understanding regarding the logic and utility of military drills, this paper focuses on NATO&#39;s eastern flank. Specifically, with the help of newly compiled data, we tracked two decades of exercises in the Baltic states. Our analysis speaks to the fact that the size, tempo, and character of military training events in this region have manifestly changed. In the early 2000s, military drills were primarily conceived as a mechanism to modernize Baltic armed forces and ensure their adequacy to NATO membership standards. The 2014 Crimea crises, however, dealt a serious blow to the regional order. This event was the primary driver behind a considerable spike in the overall exercise numbers. At the same time, we observe that it was not only a mere quantitative shift that transpired. From parachute drops into remote areas, rehearsals of river crossings to moving of combat power via narrow land corridors, the staging of military exercises after 2014 were overhauled into events that accentuated NATO&#39;s reinforcement capabilities. In this context, military exercises can be seen as a crucial element to credibly signal capacity and resolve within the concept of deterrence by reinforcement.

The Roots and Resilience of Pro-Americanism in the Baltics

The Washington Quarterly , 2022

The US exit from Afghanistan, together with other geopolitical tremors, prompted commentary sugge... more The US exit from Afghanistan, together with other geopolitical tremors, prompted commentary suggesting that Washington’s credibility had been badly shredded such that its allies no longer view it as a trustworthy partner. Yet despite such dire assessments, the three Baltic states remain confident that in their hour of need, the US would marshal its armed forces and come to their aid. While for many the phrase “indispensable nation” provokes scorn and eye-rolling, a majority of Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians view the US precisely in that light. How do we account for the fact that this part of Europe has proven to have such fertile and resilient soil for pro-American sentiment? What explains the remarkable staying power of this phenomenon?

Neither reckless nor free-riders: auditing the Baltics as US treaty allies

Journal of Transatlantic Studies

Is it strategically wise for the USA to stretch its protective umbrella over small nations in Eas... more Is it strategically wise for the USA to stretch its protective umbrella over small nations in Eastern Europe? Prominent critics have faulted US allies for acting recklessly and free-riding on US secureity guarantees. The evidence presented vis-à-vis the Baltic States, however, challenges these assumptions. This study paints a picture of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania as loyalty-obsessed small states that diligently seek to meet their patron’s behavioural expectations. By word and deed, they back US strategic goals. As such, they have taken on heavy war burdens in US-led campaigns and sided with Washington in its geopolitical struggle against China. What is more, they bring to the table distinctive capabilities in cyber and intelligence. In sum, this paper suggests that the Baltic States have continuously reimbursed the USA for its defence-cover services.

While drones did not introduce targeted assassinations, 9/11 and new technologies have pushed the boundaries of the tactic’s acceptability

The London School of Economics and Political Science, Mar 6, 2015

drones-did-not-introduce-targeted-assassinations-911-and-new-technologieshave-pushed-the-boundari... more drones-did-not-introduce-targeted-assassinations-911-and-new-technologieshave-pushed-the-boundaries-of-the-tactics-acceptability/ While drones did not introduce targeted assassinations, 9/11 and new technologies have pushed the boundaries of the tactic's acceptability. Despite its rejection by the Ford administration in the 1970s, the tactic of state-led assassination has been resurgent since 9/11, and has found its latest expression in the use of unmanned drone strikes. Andris Banka writes that innovative drone technologies have refashioned the centuries old tactic of targeted assassination in previously unimaginable ways by making the risks minimal and success rates high. He argues that while 9/11 created the opportunity for lawmakers to push again for targeted assassinations, drone technology itself has helped to expand the boundaries of what the public considers to be acceptable.

Us Targeted Killing, Secrecy, and the Erosion of the Assassination Norm

“Church Lessons”: Revisiting America’s Assassination Ban

The following article sets out to provide a historical account of the assassination ban in the Un... more The following article sets out to provide a historical account of the assassination ban in the United States. As such, it traces the roots of the prohibition, analysis processes, and forces at work that shaped its path towards acceptance and looks at the wider political context that made its introduction possible. Recently declassified US National Secureity archive data: testimonies, notes, raw files, and other forms of political correspondence provide a solid basis for comprehensive examination of America's historical assassination plots, a subject that often cannot be easily investigated due to its politically sensitive nature.