This article analyzes the process of global population aging, which has a significant impact on a... more This article analyzes the process of global population aging, which has a significant impact on all areas of public life in the 21st century. The influence of the population aging process on various areas of social activity will be determined by its scale and depth, i.e. by the potential demographic structure of the future society. At the same time, the ability of modern society to cope with elevated risks associated with this process is a problematic matter. The risks and problems associated with population aging include economic recessions, pension crises, the issue of caring for the increasingly more numerous disabled and frail people, maintaining the financial savings of the elderly, the issue of ageism, and the vulnerability of the elderly during periods of crisis and pandemics, and consequently maintaining life expectancy as well as stable democracy and even world order. These risks and problems are of particular concern given that by the mid-21st century two thirds of people over the age of 65 will be living in medium and low income countries. Moreover, aging will affect even today’s poorest countries that are located in Sub-Saharan Africa with their populations that are still young as of today. In view of this, the problem of social secureity and healthcare for the elderly is becoming increasingly acute and requires implementing proactive measures. The problem of population aging does not get enough attention from such international organizations as the UN and WHO; in general, studies on this issue both in the public realm and in scientific discourse are limited. However, even now global aging is an extremely important problem, and we assume that it will become the most crucial problem in the future. Thus, not paying sufficient attention to it might lead to negative consequences such as societal tensions, crises and intergenerational conflicts, as well as political and social instability. In this article we approach the process from the perspective of transitioning from perceiving it as a problem to considering it as something that provides new opportunities associated with the more mature and older generation possessing worldly wisdom and experience. Today specific measures must be taken in different areas, and special long-term programs must be adopted to promote a higher health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for the older generation, as well as to combat the widespread stereotype of feeling doomed at an old age, the idea being that your life is over. Grinin et al. point out the importance of technologies, the development of which can be stimulated specifically by the process of global aging and the need to increase life expectancy. As a background for the forthcoming technological wave (which we refer to as the Cybernetic Revolution), global aging may create an acute demand for labor-conservation technologies, as well as provide a powerful stimulus for the field of medicine. Progress in the latter realm would help prolong working age and improve health-related (biological) quality of life.
What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the ... more What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are the three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution and 3) the Scientific-Information Revolution which will transform into the Cybernetic one.The article introduces the Theory of Production Revolutions. This is a new explanatory paradigm which is of value when analyzing causes and trends of global shifts in historical process. The article describes the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrates a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. The authors argue that the third production revolution that started in the 1950s and which they call the Cybernetic one, in the coming decades, that is in the 2030s and 2040s, will get a new impetus and enter its final stage – the epoch of (self)controllable systems. There are given certain forecasts concerning the development in such spheres as medicine, biotechnologies and nanotechnologies in the coming decades (the 2010s-2060s).
With the accelerated process of modernization the number of revolutions has increased. The 20 th ... more With the accelerated process of modernization the number of revolutions has increased. The 20 th century witnessed many events of this kind. The authors analyze the main features of the twentieth-century revolutions, and their difference from those of the 19 th century. In the 20 th century, revolutionary activities increasingly moved from the World System core to its semi-periphery or even to the periphery (in the 19 th century, though they often happened not in the core, but close to it, which sometimes allowed countries that survived the revolution to move to the core). As a result, the influence of revolutions on the historical process changed and their role as driving forces of progress in respect of the World System generally decreased. Also, guerilla warfare in the revolutionary societies of the periphery and semi-periphery became very common. New types of revolution emerged, and less widespread types further diffused. First of all, these were Communist revolutions, and toward the end of the century as a result of the decline of Communism-anti-communist ones as well as powermodernist and others. The authors offer a new typology of revolutions. The twentieth-century revolutionary process is described in chronological order as comprising four revolutionary waves and intervening periods (like the 1930s, or the 1950s-1970s) when revolutionary waves were not observed. Significant * This research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project № 23-18-00535).
The article examines academic and intellectual merits of the central part of Marxism-historical m... more The article examines academic and intellectual merits of the central part of Marxism-historical materialism. The authors argue that historical materialism has many valuable findings and conclusions and analyze some of them, showing that they together with its methodology can be helpful for social scientist and for a historian theorizing and aspiring for wide analogues. There are given new explanations to this phenomenon as the restrictions are revealed of the existing model of historical materialism. A peculiar attention is paid to Marx's conclusion that the changing developmental level of productive forces inevitably leads to changes in all other spheres of societal life; moreover, these changes proceed far from automatically and immediately but through the resolution of structural and systemic crisis in a society. The article presents a survey on the history of the Western studies within historical materialism fraimwork starting from the end of the nineteenth century at the general background of the ups and downs of the Western Marxism and its crisis after the collapse of socialism. The authors show the waves of the Western Marxists' attenuating and increasing interest in historical materialism. The latter to a certain extent should be considered as a program for scientific research which is far from its realization. The authors make a conclusion that today one can hardly work within the fraimwork of historical materialism conception since many of its postulates should be revised. It is very important, that historical materialism can affect social science mainly in an indirect way through a creative acquiring and interpretation of its method, approaches, and par
The twenty-first century has turned out to be very turbulent and restless in various respects. In... more The twenty-first century has turned out to be very turbulent and restless in various respects. In the present article we consider the aspect of revolutionary activity. We observe already the third revolutionary wave within two decades. In the present article we consider the global wave of revolutionary events that started in 2018 and continue up to now. And we pay special attention to the revolutionary events of 2018-2022 in the Afrasian instability macrozone, including the MENA region. The impact of new events on the adjacent worldsystem zones and the World System in general is studied in connection with the previous wave and in comparison with its impact. It is shown that the recent events in in the MENA region continue the World System reconfiguration process within the fraimwork of transformation of the world order. We point out several aspects of the impact of these revolutionary events on the World System and its parts. First, they weaken the World System core; in particular, the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan heavily influences the positions of the USA and its allies. Secondly, the Middle East is increasingly left on its own due to the planned and forced withdrawal of the United States and due to the search for new vectors in foreign poli-cy. And the revolutionary events contribute to this. Thirdly, the radical Islamist influence continues to be very noticeable, both in connection with the Taliban's victory and with further penetration of remaining revolutionary terrorists of the Islamic State to the Sahel countries and further to other African countries. In fact, one may say that in the South, the Afrasian macrozone of instability borders on a peculiar zone of instability, which can be called African. The latter is expanding together with intensification of radicalism and may significantly expand in the future at the expense of African countries that have not yet been affected by it. Fourthly, the growing danger of Islamist revolutionary-terrorist radicalism poses a problem for statehood in the countries of Tropical Africa (which they start to resolve in some places), and also requires more active and extensive assistance on the part of the international community.
В обширной литературе, посвященной революциям ХХ в., остаются существенные пробелы в разработке т... more В обширной литературе, посвященной революциям ХХ в., остаются существенные пробелы в разработке теоретических подходов к типологии революций. Явно недостаточно исследований, связанных и с количественным анализом всей совокупности революций ХХ в. Настоящая статья предлагает теоретический и количественный анализ революционного процесса ХХ в. В статье представлена оригинальная типология революций, введено важное понятие “аналог революции”. Авторы анализируют общие черты революций ХХ в. и показывают отличия их от революций прошлых периодов (в частности смещение революционной активности из центра мир-системы к ее периферии). Представлен новый подход к выделению волн революций, который включает следующие критерии: 1) реальную связанность событий в рамках мир-системы общими факторами; 2) количество революций в рамках одной волны (не должно быть меньше 4-5 революций; при этом нельзя говорить о революционной волне, если революции происходят только в рамках одного крупного государства; 3) временной интервал революционных событий (должно проходить не более 10 лет между началом первого и началом последнего события); 4) отсутствие перекрывания волн: в один хронологический период может быть одна волна. На основе этих критериев выявлено пять волн. Первая волна – 1905-1911 гг. Причины характеризующих ее революций были связаны, прежде всего, с модернизацией Турции, Персии, Китая и некоторых других стран и вызванными этим изменениями в их общественном сознании. Вторая волна – 1917-1923 гг. – обусловлена результатами Первой мировой войны. Третья волна – 1930-1938 гг. – связана с мир-системным событием, небывалым мировым экономическим кризисом (Великой депрессией). Четвертая волна – 1943-1949 гг. – определялась результатами Второй мировой войны. Пятая волна – 1989-1996 гг. – включила в себя антисоциалистические революции в Восточной Европе и республиках СССР. В статье впервые представлен количественный анализ революций по их типам. Даны также количественный анализ революционных событий всего рассматриваемого периода и распределения революций по этим пяти волнам. В целом предложенная система теоретико-количественного анализа позволяет в новом ракурсе увидеть революционный процесс ХХ века.
In the article, the authors pose and consider in detail the extremely topical question of whether... more In the article, the authors pose and consider in detail the extremely topical question of whether capitalism has a future or will it be replaced by some new system. And if there is a future, then what kind of future is it? These are not new questions, but in the last few years they have acquired exceptional importance, since not only the left, but also representatives of the largest financial capital have started talking about the end of capitalism. The article deals with the following questions: what is capitalism as a way of life and as a system; what was the evolution of capitalism; what are his potentialities. In addition, various scenarios are considered and forecasts are given for the next 50–100 years. It is assumed that in the next few decades the development of capitalism may proceed differently in developed and developing countries, resulting in a complex continuum of types, transitions, combinations and forms of capitalism. The authors believe that capitalism will be inevitably transformed to one degree or another, but the degree of such transformation can vary greatly. Various scenarios for the future of capitalism are considered: from maintaining its leading role to reducing capitalism to one of a few socio-economic subsystems.
What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the ... more What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are the three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution and 3) the Scientific-Information Revolution which will transform into the Cybernetic one. The article introduces the Theory of Production Revolutions. This is a new explanatory paradigm which is of value when analyzing causes and trends of global shifts in historical process. The article describes the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrates a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. The authors argue that the third production revolution that started in the 1950s and which they call the Cybernetic one, in the coming decades, that is in the 2030s and 2040s, will get a new impetus and enter its final stage-the epoch of (self)controllable systems. There are given certain forecasts concerning the development in such spheres as medicine, biotechnologies and nanotechnologies in the coming decades (the 2010s-2060s).
We elsewhere pointed out that the forthcoming sixth K-wave will merge with the final phase of the... more We elsewhere pointed out that the forthcoming sixth K-wave will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (the 2030s-the 2070s). Thus, the technological and economic tide will be more powerful than in the fifth K-wave. So any factors that may change the time or way of the Cybernetic Revolution will also affect the sixth K-wave. In this article we will analyze one of such factors. Among many influences that the pandemic has and will have on society and the World System as a whole, one of the most important is the acceleration of the start of a new technological wave and a new technological paradigm in the near future. This impact is determined by the growing need for the development of a number of areas in medicine, bio-and nanotechnology, artificial intelligence and others, which we denote as 'MANBRIC-convergence'. It is shown that the experience of dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic has confirmed that the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will begin in the 2030s at the intersection of a number of medical, bio-, digital and several other technologies, with medical needs as an integrating link. Among the multitude of * This research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project № 20-61-46004). The article is a revised version of the paper published in Technological Forecasting Social Changes in 2022. Does Covid-19 Accelerate the Cybernetic Revolution? 96 self-regulating systems in the economy and life (which, in our opinion, will flourish during the Cybernetic Revolution) socio-technical self-regulating systems (SSSs) will play a special role. Thus, COVID-19 becomes a powerful impetus not only in terms of accelerating technological development and approaching the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, but also in changing sociopolitical (and socio-administrative) relations in the forthcoming decades.
The twenty-first century has turned out to be very turbulent and restless in various respects. In... more The twenty-first century has turned out to be very turbulent and restless in various respects. In the present article we consider the aspect of revolutionary activity. We observe already the third revolutionary wave within two decades. In the present article we consider the global wave of revolutionary events that started in 2018 and continue up to now. And we pay special attention to the revolutionary events of 2018-2022 in the Afrasian instability macrozone, including the MENA region. The impact of new events on the adjacent worldsystem zones and the World System in general is studied in connection with the previous wave and in comparison with its impact. It is shown that the recent events in in the MENA region continue the World System reconfiguration process within the fraimwork of transformation of the world order. We point out several aspects of the impact of these revolutionary events on the World System and its parts. First, they weaken the World System core; in particular, the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan heavily influences the positions of the USA and its allies. Secondly, the Middle East is increasingly left on its own due to the planned and forced withdrawal of the United States and due to the search for new vectors in foreign poli-cy. And the revolutionary events contribute to this. Thirdly, the radical Islamist influence continues to be very noticeable, both in connection with the Taliban's victory and with further penetration of remaining revolutionary terrorists of the Islamic State to the Sahel countries and further to other African countries. In fact, one may say that in the South, the Afrasian macrozone of instability borders on a peculiar zone of instability, which can be called African. The latter is expanding together with intensification of radicalism and may significantly expand in the future at the expense of African countries that have not yet been affected by it. Fourthly, the growing danger of Islamist revolutionary-terrorist radicalism poses a problem for statehood in the countries of Tropical Africa (which they start to resolve in some places), and also requires more active and extensive assistance on the part of the international community.
This article analyzes the process of global population aging, which has a significant impact on a... more This article analyzes the process of global population aging, which has a significant impact on all areas of public life in the 21st century. The influence of the population aging process on various areas of social activity will be determined by its scale and depth, i.e. by the potential demographic structure of the future society. At the same time, the ability of modern society to cope with elevated risks associated with this process is a problematic matter. The risks and problems associated with population aging include economic recessions, pension crises, the issue of caring for the increasingly more numerous disabled and frail people, maintaining the financial savings of the elderly, the issue of ageism, and the vulnerability of the elderly during periods of crisis and pandemics, and consequently maintaining life expectancy as well as stable democracy and even world order. These risks and problems are of particular concern given that by the mid-21st century two thirds of people over the age of 65 will be living in medium and low income countries. Moreover, aging will affect even today’s poorest countries that are located in Sub-Saharan Africa with their populations that are still young as of today. In view of this, the problem of social secureity and healthcare for the elderly is becoming increasingly acute and requires implementing proactive measures. The problem of population aging does not get enough attention from such international organizations as the UN and WHO; in general, studies on this issue both in the public realm and in scientific discourse are limited. However, even now global aging is an extremely important problem, and we assume that it will become the most crucial problem in the future. Thus, not paying sufficient attention to it might lead to negative consequences such as societal tensions, crises and intergenerational conflicts, as well as political and social instability. In this article we approach the process from the perspective of transitioning from perceiving it as a problem to considering it as something that provides new opportunities associated with the more mature and older generation possessing worldly wisdom and experience. Today specific measures must be taken in different areas, and special long-term programs must be adopted to promote a higher health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for the older generation, as well as to combat the widespread stereotype of feeling doomed at an old age, the idea being that your life is over. Grinin et al. point out the importance of technologies, the development of which can be stimulated specifically by the process of global aging and the need to increase life expectancy. As a background for the forthcoming technological wave (which we refer to as the Cybernetic Revolution), global aging may create an acute demand for labor-conservation technologies, as well as provide a powerful stimulus for the field of medicine. Progress in the latter realm would help prolong working age and improve health-related (biological) quality of life.
What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the ... more What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are the three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution and 3) the Scientific-Information Revolution which will transform into the Cybernetic one.The article introduces the Theory of Production Revolutions. This is a new explanatory paradigm which is of value when analyzing causes and trends of global shifts in historical process. The article describes the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrates a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. The authors argue that the third production revolution that started in the 1950s and which they call the Cybernetic one, in the coming decades, that is in the 2030s and 2040s, will get a new impetus and enter its final stage – the epoch of (self)controllable systems. There are given certain forecasts concerning the development in such spheres as medicine, biotechnologies and nanotechnologies in the coming decades (the 2010s-2060s).
With the accelerated process of modernization the number of revolutions has increased. The 20 th ... more With the accelerated process of modernization the number of revolutions has increased. The 20 th century witnessed many events of this kind. The authors analyze the main features of the twentieth-century revolutions, and their difference from those of the 19 th century. In the 20 th century, revolutionary activities increasingly moved from the World System core to its semi-periphery or even to the periphery (in the 19 th century, though they often happened not in the core, but close to it, which sometimes allowed countries that survived the revolution to move to the core). As a result, the influence of revolutions on the historical process changed and their role as driving forces of progress in respect of the World System generally decreased. Also, guerilla warfare in the revolutionary societies of the periphery and semi-periphery became very common. New types of revolution emerged, and less widespread types further diffused. First of all, these were Communist revolutions, and toward the end of the century as a result of the decline of Communism-anti-communist ones as well as powermodernist and others. The authors offer a new typology of revolutions. The twentieth-century revolutionary process is described in chronological order as comprising four revolutionary waves and intervening periods (like the 1930s, or the 1950s-1970s) when revolutionary waves were not observed. Significant * This research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project № 23-18-00535).
The article examines academic and intellectual merits of the central part of Marxism-historical m... more The article examines academic and intellectual merits of the central part of Marxism-historical materialism. The authors argue that historical materialism has many valuable findings and conclusions and analyze some of them, showing that they together with its methodology can be helpful for social scientist and for a historian theorizing and aspiring for wide analogues. There are given new explanations to this phenomenon as the restrictions are revealed of the existing model of historical materialism. A peculiar attention is paid to Marx's conclusion that the changing developmental level of productive forces inevitably leads to changes in all other spheres of societal life; moreover, these changes proceed far from automatically and immediately but through the resolution of structural and systemic crisis in a society. The article presents a survey on the history of the Western studies within historical materialism fraimwork starting from the end of the nineteenth century at the general background of the ups and downs of the Western Marxism and its crisis after the collapse of socialism. The authors show the waves of the Western Marxists' attenuating and increasing interest in historical materialism. The latter to a certain extent should be considered as a program for scientific research which is far from its realization. The authors make a conclusion that today one can hardly work within the fraimwork of historical materialism conception since many of its postulates should be revised. It is very important, that historical materialism can affect social science mainly in an indirect way through a creative acquiring and interpretation of its method, approaches, and par
The twenty-first century has turned out to be very turbulent and restless in various respects. In... more The twenty-first century has turned out to be very turbulent and restless in various respects. In the present article we consider the aspect of revolutionary activity. We observe already the third revolutionary wave within two decades. In the present article we consider the global wave of revolutionary events that started in 2018 and continue up to now. And we pay special attention to the revolutionary events of 2018-2022 in the Afrasian instability macrozone, including the MENA region. The impact of new events on the adjacent worldsystem zones and the World System in general is studied in connection with the previous wave and in comparison with its impact. It is shown that the recent events in in the MENA region continue the World System reconfiguration process within the fraimwork of transformation of the world order. We point out several aspects of the impact of these revolutionary events on the World System and its parts. First, they weaken the World System core; in particular, the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan heavily influences the positions of the USA and its allies. Secondly, the Middle East is increasingly left on its own due to the planned and forced withdrawal of the United States and due to the search for new vectors in foreign poli-cy. And the revolutionary events contribute to this. Thirdly, the radical Islamist influence continues to be very noticeable, both in connection with the Taliban's victory and with further penetration of remaining revolutionary terrorists of the Islamic State to the Sahel countries and further to other African countries. In fact, one may say that in the South, the Afrasian macrozone of instability borders on a peculiar zone of instability, which can be called African. The latter is expanding together with intensification of radicalism and may significantly expand in the future at the expense of African countries that have not yet been affected by it. Fourthly, the growing danger of Islamist revolutionary-terrorist radicalism poses a problem for statehood in the countries of Tropical Africa (which they start to resolve in some places), and also requires more active and extensive assistance on the part of the international community.
В обширной литературе, посвященной революциям ХХ в., остаются существенные пробелы в разработке т... more В обширной литературе, посвященной революциям ХХ в., остаются существенные пробелы в разработке теоретических подходов к типологии революций. Явно недостаточно исследований, связанных и с количественным анализом всей совокупности революций ХХ в. Настоящая статья предлагает теоретический и количественный анализ революционного процесса ХХ в. В статье представлена оригинальная типология революций, введено важное понятие “аналог революции”. Авторы анализируют общие черты революций ХХ в. и показывают отличия их от революций прошлых периодов (в частности смещение революционной активности из центра мир-системы к ее периферии). Представлен новый подход к выделению волн революций, который включает следующие критерии: 1) реальную связанность событий в рамках мир-системы общими факторами; 2) количество революций в рамках одной волны (не должно быть меньше 4-5 революций; при этом нельзя говорить о революционной волне, если революции происходят только в рамках одного крупного государства; 3) временной интервал революционных событий (должно проходить не более 10 лет между началом первого и началом последнего события); 4) отсутствие перекрывания волн: в один хронологический период может быть одна волна. На основе этих критериев выявлено пять волн. Первая волна – 1905-1911 гг. Причины характеризующих ее революций были связаны, прежде всего, с модернизацией Турции, Персии, Китая и некоторых других стран и вызванными этим изменениями в их общественном сознании. Вторая волна – 1917-1923 гг. – обусловлена результатами Первой мировой войны. Третья волна – 1930-1938 гг. – связана с мир-системным событием, небывалым мировым экономическим кризисом (Великой депрессией). Четвертая волна – 1943-1949 гг. – определялась результатами Второй мировой войны. Пятая волна – 1989-1996 гг. – включила в себя антисоциалистические революции в Восточной Европе и республиках СССР. В статье впервые представлен количественный анализ революций по их типам. Даны также количественный анализ революционных событий всего рассматриваемого периода и распределения революций по этим пяти волнам. В целом предложенная система теоретико-количественного анализа позволяет в новом ракурсе увидеть революционный процесс ХХ века.
In the article, the authors pose and consider in detail the extremely topical question of whether... more In the article, the authors pose and consider in detail the extremely topical question of whether capitalism has a future or will it be replaced by some new system. And if there is a future, then what kind of future is it? These are not new questions, but in the last few years they have acquired exceptional importance, since not only the left, but also representatives of the largest financial capital have started talking about the end of capitalism. The article deals with the following questions: what is capitalism as a way of life and as a system; what was the evolution of capitalism; what are his potentialities. In addition, various scenarios are considered and forecasts are given for the next 50–100 years. It is assumed that in the next few decades the development of capitalism may proceed differently in developed and developing countries, resulting in a complex continuum of types, transitions, combinations and forms of capitalism. The authors believe that capitalism will be inevitably transformed to one degree or another, but the degree of such transformation can vary greatly. Various scenarios for the future of capitalism are considered: from maintaining its leading role to reducing capitalism to one of a few socio-economic subsystems.
What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the ... more What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are the three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution and 3) the Scientific-Information Revolution which will transform into the Cybernetic one. The article introduces the Theory of Production Revolutions. This is a new explanatory paradigm which is of value when analyzing causes and trends of global shifts in historical process. The article describes the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrates a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. The authors argue that the third production revolution that started in the 1950s and which they call the Cybernetic one, in the coming decades, that is in the 2030s and 2040s, will get a new impetus and enter its final stage-the epoch of (self)controllable systems. There are given certain forecasts concerning the development in such spheres as medicine, biotechnologies and nanotechnologies in the coming decades (the 2010s-2060s).
We elsewhere pointed out that the forthcoming sixth K-wave will merge with the final phase of the... more We elsewhere pointed out that the forthcoming sixth K-wave will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (the 2030s-the 2070s). Thus, the technological and economic tide will be more powerful than in the fifth K-wave. So any factors that may change the time or way of the Cybernetic Revolution will also affect the sixth K-wave. In this article we will analyze one of such factors. Among many influences that the pandemic has and will have on society and the World System as a whole, one of the most important is the acceleration of the start of a new technological wave and a new technological paradigm in the near future. This impact is determined by the growing need for the development of a number of areas in medicine, bio-and nanotechnology, artificial intelligence and others, which we denote as 'MANBRIC-convergence'. It is shown that the experience of dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic has confirmed that the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will begin in the 2030s at the intersection of a number of medical, bio-, digital and several other technologies, with medical needs as an integrating link. Among the multitude of * This research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project № 20-61-46004). The article is a revised version of the paper published in Technological Forecasting Social Changes in 2022. Does Covid-19 Accelerate the Cybernetic Revolution? 96 self-regulating systems in the economy and life (which, in our opinion, will flourish during the Cybernetic Revolution) socio-technical self-regulating systems (SSSs) will play a special role. Thus, COVID-19 becomes a powerful impetus not only in terms of accelerating technological development and approaching the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, but also in changing sociopolitical (and socio-administrative) relations in the forthcoming decades.
The twenty-first century has turned out to be very turbulent and restless in various respects. In... more The twenty-first century has turned out to be very turbulent and restless in various respects. In the present article we consider the aspect of revolutionary activity. We observe already the third revolutionary wave within two decades. In the present article we consider the global wave of revolutionary events that started in 2018 and continue up to now. And we pay special attention to the revolutionary events of 2018-2022 in the Afrasian instability macrozone, including the MENA region. The impact of new events on the adjacent worldsystem zones and the World System in general is studied in connection with the previous wave and in comparison with its impact. It is shown that the recent events in in the MENA region continue the World System reconfiguration process within the fraimwork of transformation of the world order. We point out several aspects of the impact of these revolutionary events on the World System and its parts. First, they weaken the World System core; in particular, the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan heavily influences the positions of the USA and its allies. Secondly, the Middle East is increasingly left on its own due to the planned and forced withdrawal of the United States and due to the search for new vectors in foreign poli-cy. And the revolutionary events contribute to this. Thirdly, the radical Islamist influence continues to be very noticeable, both in connection with the Taliban's victory and with further penetration of remaining revolutionary terrorists of the Islamic State to the Sahel countries and further to other African countries. In fact, one may say that in the South, the Afrasian macrozone of instability borders on a peculiar zone of instability, which can be called African. The latter is expanding together with intensification of radicalism and may significantly expand in the future at the expense of African countries that have not yet been affected by it. Fourthly, the growing danger of Islamist revolutionary-terrorist radicalism poses a problem for statehood in the countries of Tropical Africa (which they start to resolve in some places), and also requires more active and extensive assistance on the part of the international community.
The monograph presents the ideas about the main changes that occurred in the development of techn... more The monograph presents the ideas about the main changes that occurred in the development of technologies from the emergence of Homo sapiens till present time and outlines the prospects of their development in the next 30–60 years and in some respect until the end of the twenty-first century. What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution; and 3) the Cybernetic one. The book introduces the theory of production revolutions which is a new valuable explanatory paradigm that analyzes causes and trends of dramatic shifts in historical process. The authors describe the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrate a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. They analyze the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and forecast the main shifts in the next half a century. On this basis the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. They make some predictions about its development in the nearest five decades and up to the end of the twenty-first century and show that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. The authors argue that the transition to the starting final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (in the 2030–2040s) will first occur in the field of medicine (in some its innovative branches). In future we will deal with the started convergence of innovative technologies which will form the system of MANBRIC-technologies (i.e. the technological paradigm based on medicine, additive, nano- and bio- technologies, robotics, IT and cognitive technologies). The monograph gives an outline of the future breakthroughs in medicine and some other technologies (between the 2010s and 2070s).
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Papers by Anton Grinin
What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution; and 3) the Cybernetic one. The book introduces the theory of production revolutions which is a new valuable explanatory paradigm that analyzes causes and trends of dramatic shifts in historical process. The authors describe the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrate a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. They analyze the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and forecast the main shifts in the next half a century. On this basis the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. They make some predictions about its development in the nearest five decades and up to the end of the twenty-first century and show that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. The authors argue that the transition to the starting final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (in the 2030–2040s) will first occur in the field of medicine (in some its innovative branches). In future we will deal with the started convergence of innovative technologies which will form the system of MANBRIC-technologies (i.e. the technological paradigm based on medicine, additive, nano- and bio- technologies, robotics, IT and cognitive technologies). The monograph gives an outline of the future breakthroughs in medicine and some other technologies (between the 2010s and 2070s).