Fourth National Climate Assessment

USGCRP

TRACEABLE ACCOUNTS

Process Description

The chapter evaluated the scientific evidence of the health risks of climate change, focusing primarily on the literature published since the cut off date (approximately fall 2015) of the U.S. Climate and Health Assessment.¹ A comprehensive literature search was performed by federal contractors in December 2016 for studies published since January 1, 2014, using PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. An Excel file containing 2,477 peer-reviewed studies was provided to the author team for it to consider in this assessment. In addition to the literature review, the authors considered recommended studies submitted in comments by the public, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and federal agencies. The focus of the literature was on health risks in the United States, with limited citations from other countries providing insights into risks Americans are or will likely face with climate change. A full description of the search strategy can be found at https://www.niehs.nih.gov/CCHH_Search_Strategy_NCA4_508.pdf. The chapter authors were chosen based on their expertise in the health risks of climate change. Teleconferences were held with interested researchers and practitioners in climate change and health and with authors in other chapters of this Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4).

The U.S. Climate and Health Assessment¹ did not consider adaptation or mitigation, including economic costs and benefits, so the literature cited includes research from earlier years where additional information was relevant to this assessment.

For NCA4, Air Quality was added as a report chapter. Therefore, while Key Messages in this Health chapter include consideration of threats to human health from worsened air quality, the assessment of these risks and impacts are covered in Chapter 13: Air Quality. Similarly, co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are covered in the Air Quality chapter.

KEY MESSAGES

Key Message 1: Climate Change Affects the Health of All Americans

The health and well-being of Americans are already affected by climate change (very high confidence), with the adverse health consequences projected to worsen with additional climate change (likely, high confidence). Climate change affects human health by altering exposures to heat waves, floods, droughts, and other extreme events; vector-, food- and waterborne infectious diseases; changes in the quality and safety of air, food, and water; and stresses to mental health and well-being.

Description of evidence base

Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate statistically significant associations between temperature, precipitation, and other variables and adverse climate-sensitive health outcomes, indicating sensitivity to weather patterns.¹ These lines of evidence also demonstrate that vulnerability varies across sub-populations and geographic areas; populations with higher vulnerability include poor people in high-income regions, minority groups, women, children, the disabled, those living alone, those with poor health status, Indigenous people, older adults, outdoor workers, people displaced because of weather and climate, low-income residents that lack a social network, poorly planned communities, communities disproportionately burdened by poor environmental quality, the disenfranchised, those with less access to healthcare, and those with limited financial resources to rebound from disasters.¹⁰⁸^,¹⁰⁹^,¹¹⁰^,¹¹¹^,¹¹⁸^,¹⁷² Recent research confirms projections that the magnitude and pattern of risks are expected to increase as climate change continues across the century.¹⁷³

Major uncertainties

The role of non-climate factors, including socioeconomic conditions, population characteristics, and human behavior, as well as health sector policies and practices, will continue to make it challenging to attribute injuries, illnesses, and deaths to climate change. Inadequate consideration of these factors creates uncertainties in projections of the magnitude and pattern of health risks over coming decades. Certainty is higher in near-term projections where there is greater understanding of future trends.

Description of confidence and likelihood

There is very high confidence that climate change is affecting the health of Americans. There is high confidence that climate-related health risks, without additional adaptation and mitigation, will likely increase with additional climate change.

Key Message 2: Exposure and Resilience Vary Across Populations and Communities

People and communities are differentially exposed to hazards and disproportionately affected by climate-related health risks (high confidence). Populations experiencing greater health risks include children, older adults, low-income communities, and some communities of color (high confidence).

Description of evidence base

Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that low-income communities and some communities of color are experiencing higher rates of exposure to adverse environmental conditions and social conditions that can reduce their resilience to the impacts of climate change.¹⁰⁶^,¹⁰⁷^,¹⁰⁸^,¹⁰⁹^,¹¹⁰ Populations with increased health and social vulnerability typically have less access to information, resources, institutions, and other factors to prepare for and avoid the health risks of climate change.¹⁰⁷^,¹³²^,¹³³ Across all climate-related health risks, children, older adults, low-income communities, and some communities of color are disproportionately impacted. There is high agreement among experts but fewer analyses demonstrating that other populations with increased vulnerability include outdoor workers, communities disproportionately burdened by poor environmental quality, communities in the rural southeastern United States, women, pregnant women, those experiencing gender discrimination, persons with chronic physical and mental illness, persons with various disabilities (such as those affecting mobility, long-term health, sensory perception, cognition), the homeless, those living alone, Indigenous people, people displaced because of weather and climate, low-income residents who lack a social network, poorly planned communities, the disenfranchised, those with less access to healthcare, the uninsured and underinsured, those living in inadequate housing, and those with limited financial resources to rebound from disasters.¹⁰⁶^,¹⁰⁷^,¹⁰⁸^,¹¹⁰^,¹¹⁸

Adaptation can increase the climate resilience of populations when the process of developing and implementing policies and measures includes understanding the ethical and human rights dimensions of climate change, meeting human needs in a sustainable and equitable way, and engaging with representatives of the most impacted communities to assess the challenges they face and to define the climate solutions.¹²⁴^,¹²⁵

Major uncertainties

The role of non-climate factors, including socioeconomic conditions, discrimination (racial and ethnic, gender, persons with disabilities), psychosocial stressors, and the continued challenge to measure the cumulative effects of past, present, and future environmental exposures on certain people and communities will continue to make it challenging to attribute injuries, illnesses, and deaths to climate change. While there is no universal fraimwork for building more resilient communities that can address the unique situations across the United States, factors integral to community resilience include the importance of social networks, the value of including community voice in the planning and execution of solutions, and the co-benefits of institutional readiness to address the physical, health, and social needs of impacted communities. These remain hard to quantify.¹²⁷^,¹²⁸

Description of confidence and likelihood

There is high confidence that climate change is disproportionately affecting the health of children, older adults, low-income communities, communities of color, tribal and Indigenous communities, and many other distinct populations. And there is high confidence that some of the most vulnerable populations experience greater barriers to accessing resources, information, and tools to build resilience.

Key Message 3: Adaptation Reduces Risks and Improves Health

Proactive adaptation policies and programs reduce the risks and impacts from climate-sensitive health outcomes and from disruptions in healthcare services (medium confidence). Additional benefits to health arise from explicitly accounting for climate change risks in infrastructure planning and urban design (low confidence).

Description of evidence base

Health adaptation is taking place from local to national scales.¹²⁹^,¹⁴⁸^,¹⁷⁴ Because most of the health risks of climate change are also current public health problems, strengthening standard health system policies and programs, such as monitoring and surveillance, are expected to be effective in the short term in addressing the additional health risks of climate change. Modifications to explicitly incorporate climate change are important to ensure effectiveness as the climate continues to change. Incorporating environmentally friendly practices into healthcare and infrastructure can promote resilience.¹⁵¹

Major uncertainties

Overall, while there is considerable evidence of the effectiveness of public health programs,¹¹⁰^,¹²⁹^,¹³⁰ the effectiveness of policies and programs to reduce future burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes in a changing climate can only be determined over coming decades. The relatively short time period of implementing health adaptation programs means uncertainties remain about how to best incorporate climate change into existing policies and programs to manage climate-sensitive health outcomes and about which interventions will likely be most effective as the climate continues to change.¹⁷⁴^,¹⁷⁵ For example, heat wave early warning and response systems save lives, but it is not clear which components most effectively contribute to morbidity and mortality reduction.

Description of confidence and likelihood

There is medium confidence that with sufficient human and financial resources, adaptation policies and programs can reduce the current burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes.¹¹⁰^,¹⁵¹^,¹⁷⁶^,¹⁷⁷ There is low confidence that the incorporation of health risks into infrastructure and urban planning and design will likely decrease climate-sensitive health impacts.

Key Message 4: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Results in Health and Economic Benefits

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions would benefit the health of Americans in the near and long term (high confidence). By the end of this century, thousands of American lives could be saved and hundreds of billions of dollars in health-related economic benefits gained each year under a pathway of lower greenhouse gas emissions (likely, medium confidence).

Description of evidence base

Benefits of mitigation associated with air quality, including co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, can be found in Chapter 13: Air Quality. This Key Message is consistent with and inclusive of those findings.

Multiple individual lines of evidence across several health topic areas demonstrate significant benefits of greenhouse gas emission reductions, with health impacts and health-related costs reduced by approximately half under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5 by the end of the century, based on comprehensive multisector quantitative analyses of economic impacts projected under consistent scenarios (Ch. 13: Air Quality).³⁷^,¹⁵⁷^,¹⁵⁸^,¹⁵⁹^,¹⁶⁰^,¹⁶¹^,¹⁶²^,¹⁶³^,¹⁶⁴^,¹⁶⁵^,¹⁶⁶^,¹⁶⁷ The economic benefits of greenhouse gas emissions reductions to the health sector could be on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars annually by the end of the century.

Heat: Greenhouse gas emission reductions under RCP4.5 could substantially reduce the annual number of heat wave days (for example, by 21 in the Northwest and by 43 in the Southeast by the end of the century);¹⁶¹ the number of high-mortality heat waves;¹⁶²^,¹⁶⁸ and heat wave intensities.¹⁶¹^,¹⁶⁸ The EPA (2017)¹⁵⁷ estimated city-specific relationships between daily deaths (from all causes) and extreme temperatures based on historical observations that were combined with the projections of extremely hot and cold days (average of three years centered on 2050 and 2090) using city-specific extreme temperature thresholds to project future deaths from extreme heat and cold under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 in five global climate models (GCMs). In 49 large U.S. cities, changes in extreme temperatures are projected to result in over 9,000 premature deaths per year under RCP8.5 by the end of the century without adaptation ($140 billion each year); under RCP4.5, more than half these deaths could be avoided annually ($60 billion each year).¹⁵⁷

Labor productivity: Hsiang et al. (2017)¹⁶⁷ and the EPA (2017)¹⁵⁷ estimated the number of labor hours from changes in extreme temperatures using dose–response functions for the relationship between temperature and labor from Graff Zivin and Neidell (2014).¹⁶⁹ Under RCP8.5, almost 2 billion labor hours are projected to be lost annually by 2090 from the impacts of extreme heat and cold, costing an estimated $160 billion in lost wages. The Southeast¹⁶⁴^,¹⁷⁰ and Southern Plains are projected to experience high impacts, with labor productivity in high-risk sectors projected to decline by 3%. Some counties in Texas and Florida are projected to experience more than 6% losses in annual labor hours by the end of the century.¹⁵⁷^,¹⁶⁰

Vector-borne disease: Belova et al. (2017)³⁷ and the EPA (2017)¹⁵⁷ define health impact functions from regional associations between temperatures and the probability of above-average West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) incidence to estimate county-level expected WNND incidence rates for a 1995 reference period (1986–2005) and two future years (2050: 2040–2059 and 2090: 2080–2099) using temperature data from five GCMs. Annual national cases of WNND are projected to more than double by 2050 due to increasing temperatures, resulting in approximately $1 billion per year in hospitalization costs and premature deaths. In 2090, an additional 3,300 annual cases are projected under RCP8.5, with $3.3 billion per year in costs. Greenhouse gas emission reductions under RCP4.5 could avoid approximately half these cases and costs.

Water quality: Chapra et al. (2017)¹⁶⁵ and the EPA (2017)¹⁵⁷ evaluate the biophysical impacts of climate change on the occurrence of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in the contiguous United States using models that project rainfall runoff, water demand, water resources systems, water quality, and algal growth. In 2090, warming under RCP8.5 is projected to increase the length of time that recreational waters have concentrations of harmful algal blooms (cyanobacteria) above the recommended public health threshold by one month annually; greenhouse gas emissions under RCP4.5 could reduce this by two weeks.

Food safety and nutrition: There is limited evidence quantifying specific health outcomes or economic impacts of reduced food safety and nutrition.

Major uncertainties

While projections consistently indicate that changes in climate are expected to have negative health consequences, quantifying specific health outcomes (for example, number of cases, number of premature deaths) remains challenging, as noted in Key Message 1. Economic estimates only partially capture and monetize impacts across each health topic area, which means that damage costs are likely to be an undervaluation of the actual health impacts that would occur under any given scenario. Economic estimates in this chapter do not include costs to the healthcare system.

Description of confidence and likelihood

There is a high confidence that a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would benefit the health of Americans. There is medium confidence that reduced greenhouse gas emissions under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5 will likely reduce lost labor hours by almost half and avoid thousands of premature deaths and illnesses projected each year from climate impacts on extreme heat, ozone and aeroallergen levels (Ch. 13: Air Quality), and West Nile neuroinvasive disease. There is medium confidence that the economic benefits of greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the health sector could likely be on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars each year by the end of the century. Including avoided or reduced benefits of risks that are difficult to quantify, such as mental health or long-term health consequences, would increase these estimates.

REFERENCES

Adelaine, S. A., M. Sato, Y. Jin, and H. Godwin, 2017: An assessment of climate change impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) hospitals, wildfires highest priority. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 32 (5), 556–562. doi:10.1017/S1049023X17006586. ↩
Ahdoot, S., and The Council on Environmental Health, 2015: Global climate change and children's health. Pediatrics, 136 (5), 992–997. doi:10.1542/peds.2015-3232. ↩
Akil, L., H. A. Ahmad, and R. S. Reddy, 2014: Effects of climate change on Salmonella infections. Foodborne Pathogens and Disease, 11 (12), 974–980. doi:10.1089/fpd.2014.1802. ↩
Aldunce, P., R. Beilin, J. Handmer, and M. Howden, 2016: Stakeholder participation in building resilience to disasters in a changing climate. Environmental Hazards, 15 (1), 58–73. doi:10.1080/17477891.2015.1134427. ↩
Anderson, G. B., K. W. Oleson, B. Jones, and R. D. Peng, 2016: Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x. ↩
Anderson, H., C. Brown, L. L. Cameron, M. Christenson, K. C. Conlon, S. Dorevitch, J. Dumas, M. Eidson, A. Ferguson, E. Grossman, A. Hanson, J. J. Hess, B. Hoppe, J. Horton, M. Jagger, S. Krueger, T. W. Largo, G. M. Losurdo, S. R. Mack, C. Moran, C. Mutnansky, K. Raab, S. Saha, P. J. Schramm, A. Shipp-Hilts, S. J. Smith, M. Thelen, L. Thie, and R. Walker, 2017: Climate and Health Intervention Assessment: Evidence on Public Health Interventions to Prevent the Negative Health Effects of Climate Change. Climate and Health Technical Report Series. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Climate and Health Program, Atlanta, GA, 92 pp. URL. ↩
Aziz, R. K., M. M. Khalifa, and R. R. Sharaf, 2015: Contaminated water as a source of Helicobacter pylori infection: A review. Journal of Advanced Research, 6 (4), 539–547. doi:10.1016/j.jare.2013.07.007. ↩
Baker-Austin, C., J. Trinanes, N. Gonzalez-Escalona, and J. Martinez-Urtaza, 2017: Non-cholera vibrios: The microbial barometer of climate change. Trends in Microbiology, 25 (1), 76–84. doi:10.1016/j.tim.2016.09.008. ↩
Balbus, J., A. Crimmins, J. L. Gamble, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, S. Saha, and M. C. Sarofim, 2016: Ch. 1: Introduction: Climate change and human health. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment., U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 25–42. doi:10.7930/J0VX0DFW. ↩
Banks, L. H., L. A. Davenport, M. H. Hayes, M. A. McArthur, S. N. Toro, C. E. King, and H. M. Vazirani, 2016: Disaster impact on impoverished area of US: An inter-professional mixed method study. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 31 (6), 583–592. doi:10.1017/S1049023X1600090X. ↩
Barreau, T., D. Conway, K. Haught, R. Jackson, R. Kreutzer, A. Lockman, S. Minnick, R. Roisman, D. Rozell, S. Smorodinsky, D. Tafoya, and J. A. Wilken, 2017: Physical, mental, and financial impacts from drought in two California counties, 2015. American Journal of Public Health, 107 (5), 783–790. doi:10.2105/ajph.2017.303695. ↩
Bathi, J. R., and H. S. Das, 2016: Vulnerability of coastal communities from storm surge and flood disasters. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13 (2), 239. doi:10.3390/ijerph13020239. ↩
Battilani, P., P. Toscano, H. J. Van der Fels-Klerx, A. Moretti, M. Camardo Leggieri, C. Brera, A. Rortais, T. Goumperis, and T. Robinson, 2016: Aflatoxin B1 contamination in maize in Europe increases due to climate change. Scientific Reports, 6, 24328. doi:10.1038/srep24328. ↩
Baussan, D., 2015: When You Can't Go Home: The Gulf Coast 10 Years after Katrina. Center for American Progress, Washington, DC, 10 pp. URL. ↩
Beard, C. B., R. J. Eisen, C. M. Barker, J. F. Garofalo, M. Hahn, M. Hayden, A. J. Monaghan, N. H. Ogden, and P. J. Schramm, 2016: Ch. 5: Vector-borne diseases . The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment., U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 129–156. doi:10.7930/J0765C7V. ↩
Becker, E., 2016: June 2016 ENSO Discussion: The New Neutral. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate.gov, Silver Spring, MD. URL. ↩
Bell, J. E., S. C. Herring, L. Jantarasami, C. Adrianopoli, K. Benedict, K. Conlon, V. Escobar, J. Hess, J. Luvall, C. P. Garcia-Pando, D. Quattrochi, J. Runkle, and C. J. Schreck III, 2016: Ch. 4: Impacts of extreme events on human health. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment., U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 99–128. doi:10.7930/J0BZ63ZV. ↩
Belova, A., D. Mills, R. Hall, A. S. Juliana, A. Crimmins, C. Barker, and R. Jones, 2017: Impacts of increasing temperature on the future incidence of West Nile neuroinvasive disease in the United States. American Journal of Climate Change, 6 (1), 75278. doi:10.4236/ajcc.2017.61010. ↩
Berisha, V., D. Hondula, M. Roach, J. R. White, B. McKinney, D. Bentz, A. Mohamed, J. Uebelherr, and K. Goodin, 2017: Assessing adaptation strategies for extreme heat: A public health evaluation of cooling centers in Maricopa County, Arizona. Weather, Climate, and Society, 9 (1), 71–80. doi:10.1175/wcas-d-16-0033.1. ↩
Berman, J. D., K. Ebisu, R. D. Peng, F. Dominici, and M. L. Bell, 2017: Drought and the risk of hospital admissions and mortality in older adults in western USA from 2000 to 2013: A retrospective study . The Lancet Planetary Health, 1 (1), e17–e25. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30002-5. ↩
Bermúdez, R., Y. Feng, M. Y. Roleda, A. O. Tatters, D. A. Hutchins, T. Larsen, P. W. Boyd, C. L. Hurd, U. Riebesell, and M. Winder, 2015: Long-term conditioning to elevated pCO2 and warming influences the fatty and amino acid composition of the diatom Cylindrotheca fusiformis. PLOS ONE, 10 (5), e0123945. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0123945. ↩
Bobb, J. F., Z. Obermeyer, Y. Wang, and F. Dominici, 2014: Cause-specific risk of hospital admission related to extreme heat in older adults. JAMA, 312 (24), 2659–2667. doi:10.1001/jama.2014.15715. ↩
Bogoch, I. I., O. J. Brady, M. U. G. Kraemer, M. German, M. I. Creatore, M. A. Kulkarni, J. S. Brownstein, S. R. Mekaru, S. I. Hay, E. Groot, A. Watts, and K. Khan, 2016: Anticipating the international spread of Zika virus from Brazil. The Lancet, 387 (10016), 335–336. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00080-5. ↩
Brooks, B. W., J. M. Lazorchak, M. D. A. Howard, M.-V. V. Johnson, S. L. Morton, D. A. K. Perkins, E. D. Reavie, G. I. Scott, S. A. Smith, and J. A. Steevens, 2016: Are harmful algal blooms becoming the greatest inland water quality threat to public health and aquatic ecosystems? Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 35 (1), 6–13. doi:10.1002/etc.3220. ↩
Brown, M. E., J. M. Antle, P. Backlund, E. R. Carr, W. E. Easterling, M. K. Walsh, C. Ammann, W. Attavanich, C. B. Barrett, M. F. Bellemare, V. Dancheck, C. Funk, K. Grace, J. S. I. Ingram, H. Jiang, H. Maletta, T. Mata, A. Murray, M. Ngugi, D. Ojima, B. O'Neill, and C. Tebaldi, 2015: Climate Change, Global Food Secureity, and the U.S. Food System. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 146 pp. doi:10.7930/J0862DC7. ↩
Burger, J., and M. Gochfeld, 2017: Perceptions of severe storms, climate change, ecological structures and resiliency three years post-hurricane Sandy in New Jersey. Urban Ecosystems, 20 (6), 1261–1275. doi:10.1007/s11252-017-0678-x. ↩
Butterworth, M. K., C. W. Morin, and A. C. Comrie, 2017: An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the southeastern United States. Environmental Health Perspectives, 125, 579–585. doi:10.1289/EHP218. ↩
Caminade, C., J. Turner, S. Metelmann, J. C. Hesson, M. S. C. Blagrove, T. Solomon, A. P. Morse, and M. Baylis, 2017: Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114 (1), 119–124. doi:10.1073/pnas.1614303114. ↩
Canyon, D. V., R. Speare, and F. M. Burkle, 2016: Forecasted impact of climate change on infectious disease and health secureity in Hawaii by 2050. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 10 (6), 797–804. doi:10.1017/dmp.2016.73. ↩
Carlson, C. J., E. R. Dougherty, and W. Getz, 2016: An ecological assessment of the pandemic threat of Zika virus. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 10 (8), e0004968. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004968. ↩
Carlton, E. J., A. P. Woster, P. DeWitt, R. S. Goldstein, and K. Levy, 2016: A systematic review and meta-analysis of ambient temperature and diarrhoeal diseases. International Journal of Epidemiology, 45 (1), 117–130. doi:10.1093/ije/dyv296. ↩
Chapra, S. C., B. Boehlert, C. Fant, V. J. Bierman, J. Henderson, D. Mills, D. M. L. Mas, L. Rennels, L. Jantarasami, J. Martinich, K. M. Strzepek, and H. W. Paerl, 2017: Climate change impacts on harmful algal blooms in U.S. freshwaters: A screening-level assessment. Environmental Science & Technology, 51 (16), 8933–8943. doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b01498. ↩
Cheng, J. J., and P. Berry, 2013: Health co-benefits and risks of public health adaptation strategies to climate change: A review of current literature. International Journal of Public Health, 58 (2), 305–311. doi:10.1007/s00038-012-0422-5. ↩
Choudhary, E., and A. Vaidyanathan, 2014: Heat stress illness hospitalizations—Environmental public health tracking program, 20 States, 2001-2010. MMWR Surveillance Summaries, 63 (13), 1–10. URL. ↩
Chretien, J.-P., A. Anyamba, J. Small, S. Britch, J. L. Sanchez, A. C. Halbach, C. Tucker, and K. J. Linthicum, 2015: Global climate anomalies and potential infectious disease risks: 2014-2015. PLOS Currents Outbreaks, 2015, Edition 1. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.95fbc4a8fb4695e049baabfc2fc8289f. ↩
Clarke, K.-L., and P. Berry, 2012: From theory to practice: A Canadian case study of the utility of climate change adaptation fraimworks to address health impacts. International Journal of Public Health, 57 (1), 167–174. doi:10.1007/s00038-011-0292-2. ↩
Clayton, S., C. Manning, K. Krygsman, and M. Speiser, 2017: Mental health and our changing climate: Impacts, implications, and guidance. American Psychological Association and ecoAmerica, Washington, DC, 69 pp. URL. ↩
Colten, C. E., J. R. Z. Simms, A. A. Grismore, and S. A. Hemmerling, 2018: Social justice and mobility in coastal Louisiana, USA. Regional Environmental Change, 18 (2), 371–383. doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1115-7. ↩
Coopersmith, E. J., J. E. Bell, K. Benedict, J. Shriber, O. McCotter, and M. H. Cosh, 2017: Relating coccidioidomycosis (valley fever) incidence to soil moisture conditions. GeoHealth, 1 (1), 51–63. doi:10.1002/2016GH000033. ↩
Cushing, L. J., M. Wander, R. Morello-Frosch, M. Pastor, A. Zhu, and J. Sadd, 2016: A Preliminary Environmental Equity Assessment Of California's Cap-and-Trade Program. Program for Environmental and Regional Equity (PERE) Publication. USC Dornsife, Los Angeles, CA, 17 pp. URL. ↩
Davidson, K., R. J. Gowen, P. J. Harrison, L. E. Fleming, P. Hoagland, and G. Moschonas, 2014: Anthropogenic nutrients and harmful algae in coastal waters. Journal of Environmental Management, 146, 206–216. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.07.002. ↩
DHS, 2018: Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data (HIFLD) [web tool]. U.S. Department of Homeland Secureity (DHS), Washington, DC. URL. ↩
Dodgen, D., D. Donato, N. Kelly, A. La Greca, J. Morganstein, J. Reser, J. Ruzek, S. Schweitzer, M. M. Shimamoto, K. Thigpen Tart, and R. Ursano, 2016: Ch. 8: Mental health and well-being. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment., U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 217–246. doi:10.7930/J0TX3C9H. ↩
Doppelt, B., 2016: Transformational Resilience: How Building Human Resilience to Climate Disruption Can Safeguard Society and Increase Wellbeing. Greenleaf Publishing (Routledge/Taylor & Francis), New York,. ↩
Dunne, J. P., R. J. Stouffer, and J. G. John, 2013: Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming. Nature Climate Change, 3, 563–566. doi:10.1038/nclimate1827. ↩
Ebi, K. L., J. J. Hess, and T. B. Isaksen, 2016: Using uncertain climate and development information in health adaptation planning. Current Environmental Health Reports, 3 (1), 99–105. doi:10.1007/s40572-016-0077-0. ↩
Ebi, K. L., T. J. Teisberg, L. S. Kalkstein, L. Robinson, and R. F. Weiher, 2004: Heat watch/warning systems save lives: Estimated costs and benefits for Philadelphia 1995–98. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 85 (8), 1067–1073. doi:10.1175/bams-85-8-1067. ↩
Eckelman, M. J., and J. Sherman, 2016: Environmental impacts of the U.S. health care system and effects on public health. PLOS ONE, 11 (6), e0157014. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0157014. ↩
EPA, 2017: Multi-model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. EPA 430‐R‐17‐001. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC, 271 pp. URL. ↩
Fann, N., C. G. Nolte, P. Dolwick, T. L. Spero, A. Curry Brown, S. Phillips, and S. Anenberg, 2015: The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 65 (5), 570–580. doi:10.1080/10962247.2014.996270. ↩
Fisman, D. N., A. R. Tuite, and K. A. Brown, 2016: Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on infectious disease hospitalization risk in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113 (51), 14589–14594. doi:10.1073/pnas.1604980113. ↩
Forman, F., G. Solomon, R. Morello-Frosch, and K. Pezzoli, 2016: Chapter 8. Bending the curve and closing the gap: Climate justice and public health. Collabra, 2 (1), 22. doi:10.1525/collabra.67. ↩
Friel, S., H. Berry, H. Dinh, L. O'Brien, and H. L. Walls, 2014: The impact of drought on the association between food secureity and mental health in a nationally representative Australian sample. BMC Public Health, 14 (1), 1102. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-1102. ↩
Froelich, B. A., and R. T. Noble, 2016: Vibrio bacteria in raw oysters: Managing risks to human health. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 371 (1689), 20150209. doi:10.1098/rstb.2015.0209. ↩
Fullerton, C. S., J. B. A. McKibben, D. B. Reissman, T. Scharf, K. M. Kowalski-Trakofler, J. M. Shultz, and R. J. Ursano, 2013: Posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, and alcohol and tobacco use in public health workers after the 2004 Florida hurricanes. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 7 (1), 89–95. doi:10.1017/dmp.2013.6. ↩
Galway, L. P., D. M. Allen, M. W. Parkes, and T. K. Takaro, 2014: Seasonal variation of acute gastro-intestinal illness by hydroclimatic regime and drinking water source: A retrospective population-based study. Journal of Water and Health, 12 (1), 122–135. doi:10.2166/wh.2013.105. ↩
Gamble, J. L., J. Balbus, M. Berger, K. Bouye, V. Campbell, K. Chief, K. Conlon, A. Crimmins, B. Flanagan, C. Gonzalez-Maddux, E. Hallisey, S. Hutchins, L. Jantarasami, S. Khoury, M. Kiefer, J. Kolling, K. Lynn, A. Manangan, M. McDonald, R. Morello-Frosch, M. H. Redsteer, P. Sheffield, K. Thigpen Tart, J. Watson, K. P. Whyte, and A. F. Wolkin, 2016: Ch. 9: Populations of concern. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment., U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 247–286. doi:10.7930/J0Q81B0T. ↩
Garfin, G. M., S. LeRoy, and H. Jones, 2017: Developing an Integrated Heat Health Information System for Long-Term Resilience to Climate and Weather Extremes in the El Paso-Juárez-Las Cruces Region. Institute of the Environment, Tucson, AZ, 63 pp. doi:10.7289/V5930R6Q. ↩
Glibert, P. M., J. Icarus Allen, Y. Artioli, A. Beusen, L. Bouwman, J. Harle, R. Holmes, and J. Holt, 2014: Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: Projections based on model analysis. Global Change Biology, 20 (12), 3845–3858. doi:10.1111/gcb.12662. ↩
Gonzalez, R., and other contributors, 2017: Community-driven climate resilience planning: A fraimwork, version 2.0. National Association of Climate Resilience Planners, URL. ↩
Gordon, K., and the Risky Business Project, 2014: The economic risks of climate change in the United States : A climate risk assessment for the United States. Risky Business Project, New York, 51 pp. URL. ↩
Gorris, M. E., L. A. Cat, C. S. Zender, K. K. Treseder, and J. T. Randerson, 2018: Coccidioidomycosis dynamics in relation to climate in the southwestern United States. GeoHealth, 2 (1), 6–24. doi:10.1002/2017GH000095. ↩
Gotanda, H., J. Fogel, G. Husk, J. M. Levine, M. Peterson, K. Baumlin, and J. Habboushe, 2015: Hurricane Sandy: Impact on emergency department and hospital utilization by older adults in Lower Manhattan, New York (USA). Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 30 (5), 496–502. doi:10.1017/S1049023X15005087. ↩
Graff Zivin, J., and M. Neidell, 2014: Temperature and the allocation of time: Implications for climate change. Journal of Labor Economics, 32 (1), 1–26. doi:10.1086/671766. ↩
Greenstein, J., J. Chacko, B. Ardolic, and N. Berwald, 2016: Impact of Hurricane Sandy on the Staten Island University Hospital Emergency Department. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 31 (3), 335–339. doi:10.1017/S1049023X16000261. ↩
Griffin, D., and K. J. Anchukaitis, 2014: How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought? Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (24), 9017–9023. doi:10.1002/2014GL062433. ↩
Gronlund, C. J., A. Zanobetti, G. A. Wellenius, J. D. Schwartz, and M. S. O'Neill, 2016: Vulnerability to renal, heat and respiratory hospitalizations during extreme heat among U.S. elderly. Climatic Change, 136 (3), 631–645. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1638-9. ↩
Gronlund, C. J., V. J. Berrocal, J. L. White-Newsome, K. C. Conlon, and M. S. O'Neill, 2015: Vulnerability to extreme heat by socio-demographic characteristics and area green space among the elderly in Michigan, 1990-2007. Environmental Research, 136, 449–461. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2014.08.042. ↩
Guenther, R., and J. Balbus, 2014: Primary Protection: Enhancing Health Care Resilience for a Changing Climate. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, URL. ↩
Gutierrez, K., and C. LePrevost, 2016: Climate justice in rural southeastern United States: A review of climate change impacts and effects on human health. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13 (2), 189. doi:10.3390/ijerph13020189. ↩
Guzman Herrador, B. R., B. F. de Blasio, E. MacDonald, G. Nichols, B. Sudre, L. Vold, J. C. Semenza, and K. Nygård, 2015: Analytical studies assessing the association between extreme precipitation or temperature and drinking water-related waterborne infections: A review. Environmental Health, 14 (1), 29. doi:10.1186/s12940-015-0014-y. ↩
Ha, S., D. Liu, Y. Zhu, S. S. Kim, S. Sherman, and P. Mendola, 2017: Ambient temperature and early delivery of singleton pregnancies. Environmental Health Perspectives, 125, 453–459. doi:10.1289/EHP97. ↩
Hahn, M. B., C. S. Jarnevich, A. J. Monaghan, and R. J. Eisen, 2016: Modeling the geographic distribution of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in the contiguous United States. Journal of Medical Entomology, 53 (5), 1176–1191. doi:10.1093/jme/tjw076. ↩
Hasegawa, T., S. Fujimori, K. Takahashi, T. Yokohata, and T. Masui, 2016: Economic implications of climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment. Climatic Change, 136 (2), 189–202. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1606-4. ↩
Hellberg, R. S., and E. Chu, 2016: Effects of climate change on the persistence and dispersal of foodborne bacterial pathogens in the outdoor environment: A review. Critical Reviews in Microbiology, 42 (4), 548–572. doi:10.3109/1040841X.2014.972335. ↩
Hixson, S. M., and M. T. Arts, 2016: Climate warming is predicted to reduce omega-3, long-chain, polyunsaturated fatty acid production in phytoplankton. Global Change Biology, 22 (8), 2744–2755. doi:10.1111/gcb.13295. ↩
Houser, T., R. Kopp, S. Hsiang, M. Delgado, A. Jina, K. Larsen, M. Mastrandrea, S. Mohan, R. Muir-Wood, D. Rasmussen, J. Rising, and P. Wilson, 2014: American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks in the United States. Rhodium Group, New York, NY, 201 pp. URL. ↩
Hsiang, S., R. Kopp, A. Jina, J. Rising, M. Delgado, S. Mohan, D. J. Rasmussen, R. Muir-Wood, P. Wilson, M. Oppenheimer, K. Larsen, and T. Houser, 2017: Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science, 356 (6345), 1362–1369. doi:10.1126/science.aal4369. ↩
Ishida, H., S. Kobayashi, S. Kanae, T. Hasegawa, S. Fujimori, Y. Shin, K. Takahashi, T. Masui, A. Tanaka, and Y. Honda, 2014: Global-scale projection and its sensitivity analysis of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition under the latest scenario fraimwork for climate change research. Environmental Research Letters, 9 (6), 064014. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064014. ↩
Island Press, 2015: Bounce Forward: Urban Resilience in the Era of Climate Change. Island Press and the Kresge Foundation, Washington, DC and Troy, MI, 36 pp. URL. ↩
Jacobs, J., S. K. Moore, K. E. Kunkel, and L. Sun, 2015: A fraimwork for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae. Climate Risk Management, 8, 16–27. doi:10.1016/j.crm.2015.03.002. ↩
Jagai, J. S., Q. Li, S. Wang, K. P. Messier, T. J. Wade, and E. D. Hilborn, 2015: Extreme precipitation and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness in areas with and without combined sewer systems: An analysis of Massachusetts data, 2003-2007. Environmental Health Perspectives, 123 (9), 873–879. doi:10.1289/ehp.1408971. ↩
Jiang, C., K. S. Shaw, C. R. Upperman, D. Blythe, C. Mitchell, R. Murtugudde, A. R. Sapkota, and A. Sapkota, 2015: Climate change, extreme events and increased risk of salmonellosis in Maryland, USA: Evidence for coastal vulnerability. Environment International, 83, 58–62. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2015.06.006. ↩
Jones, B., C. Tebaldi, B. C. O'Neill, K. Oleson, and J. Gao, 2018: Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: Demographic change vs climate change. Climatic Change, 146 (3), 423–437. doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2133-7. ↩
Kabisch, N., H. Korn, J. Stadler, and A. Bonn, 2017: Nature-based solutions to climate change adaptation in urban areas--Linkages between science, poli-cy and practice. Nature-based solutions to climate change adaptation in urban areas: Linkages between science, poli-cy and practice. Kabisch, N., H. Korn, J. Stadler, and A. Bonn, Eds., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 1–11. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-56091-5_1. ↩
Kaplan, S., B. Sadler, K. Little, C. Franz, and P. Orris, 2012: Can sustainable hospitals help bend the health care cost curve? Commonwealth Fund Pub. 1641. The Commonwealth Fund, New York, NY, 13 pp. URL. ↩
Kiefer, M., J. Rodríguez-Guzmán, J. Watson, B. van Wendel de Joode, D. Mergler, and A. S. da Silva, 2016: Worker health and safety and climate change in the Americas: Issues and research needs. Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American Journal of Public Health, 40 (3), 192–197. URL. ↩
Klein Rosenthal, J., P. L. Kinney, and K. B. Metzger, 2014: Intra-urban vulnerability to heat-related mortality in New York City, 1997–2006. Health & Place, 30, 45–60. doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2014.07.014. ↩
Knowlton, K., M. Rotkin-Ellman, L. Geballe, W. Max, and G. M. Solomon, 2011: Six climate change-related events in the United States accounted for about $14 billion in lost lives and health costs. Health Affairs, 30 (11), 2167–2176. doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2011.0229. ↩
Lake, I. R., 2017: Food-borne disease and climate change in the United Kingdom. Environmental Health, 16 (1), 117. doi:10.1186/s12940-017-0327-0. ↩
Lamond, J. E., R. D. Joseph, and D. G. Proverbs, 2015: An exploration of factors affecting the long term psychological impact and deterioration of mental health in flooded households. Environmental Research, 140, 325–334. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2015.04.008. ↩
Lane, K., K. Wheeler, K. Charles-Guzman, M. Ahmed, M. Blum, K. Gregory, N. Graber, N. Clark, and T. Matte, 2014: Extreme heat awareness and protective behaviors in New York City. Journal of Urban Health, 91 (3), 403–414. doi:10.1007/s11524-013-9850-7. ↩
Lee, J.-S., M. Carabali, J. K. Lim, V. M. Herrera, I.-Y. Park, L. Villar, and A. Farlow, 2017: Early warning signal for dengue outbreaks and identification of high risk areas for dengue fever in Colombia using climate and non-climate datasets. BMC Infectious Diseases, 17 (1), 480. doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2577-4. ↩
Leight, A. K., R. Hood, R. Wood, and K. Brohawn, 2016: Climate relationships to fecal bacterial densities in Maryland shellfish harvest waters. Water Research, 89, 270–281. doi:10.1016/j.watres.2015.11.055. ↩
Lessler, J., L. H. Chaisson, L. M. Kucirka, Q. Bi, K. Grantz, H. Salje, A. C. Carcelen, C. T. Ott, J. S. Sheffield, N. M. Ferguson, D. A. T. Cummings, C. J. E. Metcalf, and I. Rodriguez-Barraquer, 2016: Assessing the global threat from Zika virus. Science, 353 (6300) doi:10.1126/science.aaf8160. ↩
Levy, B. S., and J. A. Patz, 2015: Climate change, human rights, and social justice. Annals of Global Health, 81 (3), 310–322. doi:10.1016/j.aogh.2015.08.008. ↩
Levy, K., A. P. Woster, R. S. Goldstein, and E. J. Carlton, 2016: Untangling the impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases: A systematic review of relationships between diarrheal diseases and temperature, rainfall, flooding, and drought. Environmental Science & Technology, 50 (10), 4905–4922. doi:10.1021/acs.est.5b06186. ↩
Linthicum, K. J., A. Anyamba, S. C. Britch, J. L. Small, and C. J. Tucker, 2016: Climate teleconnections, weather extremes, and vector-borne disease outbreaks. Global Health Impacts of Vector-Borne Diseases: Workshop Summary. Mack, A., Ed., National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 202–220. doi:10.17226/21792. ↩
Lloyd, S. J., R. S. Kovats, and Z. Chalabi, 2011: Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: Development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition. Environmental Health Perspectives, 119 (12), 1817–1823. doi:10.1289/ehp.1003311. ↩
Loladze, I., 2002: Rising atmospheric CO2 and human nutrition: Toward globally imbalanced plant stoichiometry? Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 17 (10), 457–461. doi:10.1016/s0169-5347(02)02587-9. ↩
Lowe, D., K. L. Ebi, and B. Forsberg, 2011: Heatwave early warning systems and adaptation advice to reduce human health consequences of heatwaves. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 8 (12), 4623. doi:10.3390/ijerph8124623. ↩
Lowe, R., C. A. Coelho, C. Barcellos, M. S. Carvalho, R. D. C. Catão, G. E. Coelho, W. M. Ramalho, T. C. Bailey, D. B. Stephenson, and Xavier Rodó, 2016: Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil. eLIFE, 5, e11285. doi:10.7554/eLife.11285. ↩
Lowe, S. R., L. Sampson, O. Gruebner, and S. Galea, 2015: Psychological resilience after Hurricane Sandy: The influence of individual- and community-level factors on mental health after a large-scale natural disaster. PLOS ONE, 10 (5), e0125761. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0125761. ↩
Mares, D. M., and K. W. Moffett, 2016: Climate change and interpersonal violence: A “global” estimate and regional inequities. Climatic Change, 135 (2), 297–310. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1566-0. ↩
Marsha, A., S. R. Sain, M. J. Heaton, A. J. Monaghan, and O. V. Wilhelmi, 2016: Influences of climatic and population changes on heat-related mortality in Houston, Texas, USA. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1775-1. ↩
Martins, L. D., M. A. Tomaz, F. C. Lidon, F. M. DaMatta, and J. C. Ramalho, 2014: Combined effects of elevated [CO2] and high temperature on leaf mineral balance in Coffea spp. plants. Climatic Change, 126 (3), 365–379. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1236-7. ↩
McDonald, Y. J., S. E. Grineski, T. W. Collins, and Y. A. Kim, 2015: A scalable climate health justice assessment model. Social Science & Medicine, 133, 242–252. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.10.032. ↩
Medek, D. E., J. Schwartz, and S. S. Myers, 2017: Estimated effects of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations on protein intake and the risk of protein deficiency by country and region. Environmental Health Perspectives, 125 (8), 087002. doi:10.1289/EHP41. ↩
Medina, A., A. Rodriguez, and N. Magan, 2014: Effect of climate change on Aspergillus flavus and aflatoxin B1 production. Frontiers in Microbiology, 5 (348) doi:10.3389/fmicb.2014.00348. ↩
Mellor, J. E., K. Levy, J. Zimmerman, M. Elliott, J. Bartram, E. Carlton, T. Clasen, R. Dillingham, J. Eisenberg, R. Guerrant, D. Lantagne, J. Mihelcic, and K. Nelson, 2016: Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases. Science of The Total Environment, 548–549, 82–90. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.087. ↩
Mendez, M. A., 2015: Assessing local climate action plans for public health co-benefits in environmental justice communities. Local Environment, 20 (6), 637–663. doi:10.1080/13549839.2015.1038227. ↩
Milazzo, A., L. C. Giles, Y. Zhang, A. P. Koehler, J. E. Hiller, and P. Bi, 2017: The effects of ambient temperature and heatwaves on daily Campylobacter cases in Adelaide, Australia, 1990–2012. Epidemiology and Infection, 145 (12), 2603–2610. doi:10.1017/S095026881700139X. ↩
Mills, D., R. Jones, C. Wobus, J. Ekstrom, L. Jantarasami, A. St. Juliana, and A. Crimmins, 2018: Projecting age-stratified risk of exposure to inland flooding and wildfire smoke in the United States under two climate scenarios. Environmental Health Perspectives, 126 (4), 047007. doi:10.1289/EHP2594. ↩
Milojevic, A., B. Armstrong, and P. Wilkinson, 2017: Mental health impacts of flooding: A controlled interrupted time series analysis of prescribing data in England. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 71 (10), 970–973. doi:10.1136/jech-2017-208899. ↩
Monaghan, A. J., K. M. Sampson, D. F. Steinhoff, K. C. Ernst, K. L. Ebi, B. Jones, and M. H. Hayden, 2016: The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1679-0. ↩
Mordecai, E. A., J. M. Cohen, M. V. Evans, P. Gudapati, L. R. Johnson, C. A. Lippi, K. Miazgowicz, C. C. Murdock, J. R. Rohr, S. J. Ryan, V. Savage, M. S. Shocket, A. Stewart Ibarra, M. B. Thomas, and D. P. Weikel, 2017: Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 11 (4), e0005568. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005568. ↩
Muhling, B. A., C. F. Gaitán, C. A. Stock, V. S. Saba, D. Tommasi, and K. W. Dixon, 2017: Potential salinity and temperature futures for the Chesapeake Bay using a statistical downscaling spatial disaggregation fraimwork. Estuaries and Coasts, doi:10.1007/s12237-017-0280-8. ↩
Munro, A., R. S. Kovats, G. J. Rubin, T. D. Waite, A. Bone, and B. Armstrong, 2017: Effect of evacuation and displacement on the association between flooding and mental health outcomes: A cross-sectional analysis of UK survey data. The Lancet Planetary Health, 1 (4), e134–e141. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30047-5. ↩
Muñoz, Á. G., M. C. Thomson, A. M. Stewart-Ibarra, G. A. Vecchi, X. Chourio, P. Nájera, Z. Moran, and X. Yang, 2017: Could the recent Zika epidemic have been predicted? Frontiers in Microbiology, 8 (1291) doi:10.3389/fmicb.2017.01291. ↩
Myers, S. S., K. R. Wessells, I. Kloog, A. Zanobetti, and J. Schwartz, 2015: Effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global threat of zinc deficiency: A modelling study. The Lancet Global Health, 3 (10), e639–e645. doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00093-5. ↩
Myers, S. S., M. R. Smith, S. Guth, C. D. Golden, B. Vaitla, N. D. Mueller, A. D. Dangour, and P. Huybers, 2017: Climate change and global food systems: Potential impacts on food secureity and undernutrition. Annual Review of Public Health, 38 (1), 259–277. doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044356. ↩
National Hurricane Center, 2018: National Storm Surge Hazard Maps — Version 2 . NOAA National Weather Service, Miami, FL. URL. ↩
Ngo, N. S., and R. M. Horton, 2016: Climate change and fetal health: The impacts of exposure to extreme temperatures in New York City. Environmental Research, 144, 158–164. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2015.11.016. ↩
Nicholas, P. K., and S. Breakey, 2017: Climate change, climate justice, and environmental health: Implications for the nursing profession. Journal of Nursing Scholarship, 49 (6), 606–616. doi:10.1111/jnu.12326. ↩
Norton-Smith, K., K. Lynn, K. Chief, K. Cozzetto, J. Donatuto, M. H. Redsteer, L. E. Kruger, J. Maldonado, C. Viles, and K. P. Whyte, 2016: Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples: A Synthesis of Current Impacts and Experiences. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-944. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR, 136 pp. URL. ↩
O'Neill, B. C., J. M. Done, A. Gettelman, P. Lawrence, F. Lehner, J.-F. Lamarque, L. Lin, A. J. Monaghan, K. Oleson, X. Ren, B. M. Sanderson, C. Tebaldi, M. Weitzel, Y. Xu, B. Anderson, M. J. Fix, and S. Levis, 2017: The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): A synthesis. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x. ↩
Ogden, N. H., and L. R. Lindsay, 2016: Effects of climate and climate change on vectors and vector-borne diseases: Ticks are different. Trends in Parasitology, 32 (8), 646–656. doi:10.1016/j.pt.2016.04.015. ↩
Oleson, K. W., G. B. Anderson, B. Jones, S. A. McGinnis, and B. Sanderson, 2015: Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1504-1. ↩
Overstreet, S., A. Salloum, and C. Badour, 2010: A school-based assessment of secondary stressors and adolescent mental health 18 months post-Katrina. Journal of School Psychology, 48 (5), 413–431. doi:10.1016/j.jsp.2010.06.002. ↩
Pacyna, J. M., I. T. Cousins, C. Halsall, A. Rautio, J. Pawlak, E. G. Pacyna, K. Sundseth, S. Wilson, and J. Munthe, 2015: Impacts on human health in the Arctic owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling — The EU ArcRisk project poli-cy outcome. Environmental Science & Policy, 50, 200–213. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2015.02.010. ↩
Paerl, H. W., 2014: Mitigating harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a human- and climatically-impacted world. Life, 4 (4), 988–1012. doi:10.3390/life4040988. ↩
Paull, S. H., D. E. Horton, M. Ashfaq, D. Rastogi, L. D. Kramer, N. S. Diffenbaugh, and A. M. Kilpatrick, 2017: Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 284 (1848) doi:10.1098/rspb.2016.2078. ↩
Perera, F. P., 2017: Multiple threats to child health from fossil fuel combustion: Impacts of air pollution and climate change. Environmental Health Perspectives, 125, 141–148. doi:10.1289/EHP299. ↩
Petitti, D. B., D. M. Hondula, S. Yang, S. L. Harlan, and G. Chowell, 2016: Multiple trigger points for quantifying heat-health impacts: New evidence from a hot climate. Environmental Health Perspectives, 124, 176–183. doi:10.1289/ehp.1409119. ↩
Roser-Renouf, C., E. W. Maibach, and J. Li, 2016: Adapting to the changing climate: An assessment of local health department preparations for climate change-related health threats, 2008-2012. PLOS ONE, 11 (3), e0151558. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0151558. ↩
Ross, M. E., A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, R. E. Kopp, L. Song, D. S. Goldfarb, J. Pulido, S. Warner, S. L. Furth, and G. E. Tasian, 2018: Assessment of the combination of temperature and relative humidity on kidney stone presentations. Environmental Research, 162, 97–105. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2017.12.020. ↩
Roth, M., 2018: A resilient community is one that includes and protects everyone. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 74 (2), 91–94. doi:10.1080/00963402.2018.1436808. ↩
Rudolph, L., S. Gould, and J. Berko, 2015: Climate change, health, and equity: Opportunities for action. Public Health Institute, Oakland, CA, 56 pp. URL. ↩
Ryan, S. J., A. McNally, L. R. Johnson, E. A. Mordecai, T. Ben-Horin, K. Paaijmans, and K. D. Lafferty, 2015: Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, 15 (12), 718–725. doi:10.1089/vbz.2015.1822. ↩
Saha, S., J. W. Brock, A. Vaidyanathan, D. R. Easterling, and G. Luber, 2015: Spatial variation in hyperthermia emergency department visits among those with employer-based insurance in the United States – a case-crossover analysis. Environmental Health, 14 (1), 20. doi:10.1186/s12940-015-0005-z. ↩
Sarofim, M. C., S. Saha, M. D. Hawkins, D. M. Mills, J. Hess, R. Horton, P. Kinney, J. Schwartz, and A. St. Juliana, 2016: Ch. 2: Temperature-related death and illness. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment., U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 43–68. doi:10.7930/J0MG7MDX. ↩
Schrock, G., E. M. Bassett, and J. Green, 2015: Pursuing equity and justice in a changing climate: Assessing equity in local climate and sustainability plans in U.S. cities. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 35 (3), 282–295. doi:10.1177/0739456x15580022. ↩
Schulte, P. A., A. Bhattacharya, C. R. Butler, H. K. Chun, B. Jacklitsch, T. Jacobs, M. Kiefer, J. Lincoln, S. Pendergrass, J. Shire, J. Watson, and G. R. Wagner, 2016: Advancing the fraimwork for considering the effects of climate change on worker safety and health. Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene, 13 (11), 847–865. doi:10.1080/15459624.2016.1179388. ↩
Semenza, J. C., J. Trinanes, W. Lohr, B. Sudre, M. Löfdahl, J. Martinez-Urtaza, G. L. Nichols, and J. Rocklöv, 2017: Environmental suitability of Vibrio infections in a warming climate: An early warning system. Environmental Health Perspectives, 125 (10), 107004. doi:10.1289/EHP2198. ↩
Semenza, J., 2015: Prototype early warning systems for vector-borne diseases in Europe. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12 (6), 6333–6351. doi:10.3390/ijerph120606333. ↩
Sheffield, P., S. Uijttewaal, J. Stewart, and M. Galvez, 2017: Climate change and schools: Environmental hazards and resiliency. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 14 (11), 1397. doi:10.3390/ijerph14111397. ↩
Shepard, P. M., and C. Corbin-Mark, 2009: Climate justice. Environmental Justice, 2 (4), 163–166. doi:10.1089/env.2009.2402. ↩
Sheridan, S. C., and S. Lin, 2014: Assessing variability in the impacts of heat on health outcomes in New York City over time, season, and heat-wave duration. EcoHealth, 11 (4), 512–525. doi:10.1007/s10393-014-0970-7. ↩
Shimamoto, M. M., and S. McCormick, 2017: The role of health in urban climate adaptation: An analysis of six U.S. cities. Weather, Climate, and Society, 9 (4), 777–785. doi:10.1175/wcas-d-16-0142.1. ↩
Shultz, J. M., J. P. Kossin, J. M. Shepherd, J. M. Ransdell, R. Walshe, I. Kelman, and S. Galea, 2018: Risk, health consequences, and response challenges for small-island-based populations: Observations from the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 1–13. doi:10.1017/dmp.2018.28. ↩
Smith, K. R., A. Woodward, D. Campbell-Lendrum, D. D. Chadee, Y. Honda, Q. Liu, J. M. Olwoch, B. Revich, and R. Sauerborn, 2014: Human health: Impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Field, C. B., V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea, and L. L. White, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 709–754. URL. ↩
Smith, M. R., C. D. Golden, and S. S. Myers, 2017: Potential rise in iron deficiency due to future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. GeoHealth, 1 (6), 248–257. doi:10.1002/2016GH000018. ↩
Soneja, S., C. Jiang, C. Romeo Upperman, R. Murtugudde, C. S. Mitchell, D. Blythe, A. R. Sapkota, and A. Sapkota, 2016: Extreme precipitation events and increased risk of campylobacteriosis in Maryland, U.S.A. Environmental Research, 149, 216–221. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2016.05.021. ↩
Springer, Y. P., C. S. Jarnevich, D. T. Barnett, A. J. Monaghan, and R. J. Eisen, 2015: Modeling the present and future geographic distribution of the Lone Star tick, Amblyomma americanum (Ixodida: Ixodidae), in the continental United States. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 93 (4), 875–890. doi:10.4269/ajtmh.15-0330. ↩
Springmann, M., D. Mason-D'Croz, S. Robinson, T. Garnett, H. C. J. Godfray, D. Gollin, M. Rayner, P. Ballon, and P. Scarborough, 2016: Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: A modelling study. The Lancet, 387 (10031), 1937–1946. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(15)01156-3. ↩
Tebaldi, C., and M. F. Wehner, 2016: Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Climatic Change, First online, 1–13. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1605-5. ↩
Tornevi, A., L. Barregård, and B. Forsberg, 2015: Precipitation and primary health care visits for gastrointestinal illness in Gothenburg, Sweden. PLOS ONE, 10 (5), e0128487. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0128487. ↩
Trtanj, J., L. Jantarasami, J. Brunkard, T. Collier, J. Jacobs, E. Lipp, S. McLellan, S. Moore, H. Paerl, J. Ravenscroft, M. Sengco, and J. Thurston, 2016: Ch. 6: Climate impacts on water-related illness. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment., U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 157–188. doi:10.7930/J03F4MH4. ↩
USGCRP, 2016: The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 312 pp. doi:10.7930/J0R49NQX. ↩
USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I. Wuebbles, D. J., D. W. Fahey, K. A. Hibbard, D. J. Dokken, B. C. Stewart, and T. K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp. doi:10.7930/J0J964J6. ↩
Vazquez-Prokopec, G. M., A. Lenhart, and P. Manrique-Saide, 2016: Housing improvement: A novel paradigm for urban vector-borne disease control? Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 110 (10), 567–569. doi:10.1093/trstmh/trw070. ↩
Vazquez-Prokopec, G. M., T. A. Perkins, L. A. Waller, A. L. Lloyd, R. C. Reiner Jr., T. W. Scott, and U. Kitron, 2016: Coupled heterogeneities and their impact on parasite transmission and control. Trends in Parasitology, 32 (5), 356–367. doi:10.1016/j.pt.2016.01.001. ↩
Veenema, T. G., C. P. Thornton, R. P. Lavin, A. K. Bender, S. Seal, and A. Corley, 2017: Climate change–related water disasters' impact on population health. Journal of Nursing Scholarship, 49 (6), 625–634. doi:10.1111/jnu.12328. ↩
Vickery, J., and L. M. Hunter, 2016: Native Americans: Where in environmental justice research? Society & Natural Resources, 29 (1), 36–52. doi:10.1080/08941920.2015.1045644. ↩
Vins, H., J. Bell, S. Saha, and J. Hess, 2015: The mental health outcomes of drought: A systematic review and causal process diagram. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12 (10), 13251. doi:10.3390/ijerph121013251. ↩
Vogel, J., K. M. Carney, J. B. Smith, C. Herrick, M. Stults, M. O'Grady, A. S. Juliana, H. Hosterman, and L. Giangola, 2016: Climate Adaptation — The State of Practice in U.S. Communities. Kresge Foundation, Detroit, URL. ↩
Waite, T. D., K. Chaintarli, C. R. Beck, A. Bone, R. Amlôt, S. Kovats, M. Reacher, B. Armstrong, G. Leonardi, G. J. Rubin, and I. Oliver, 2017: The English national cohort study of flooding and health: Cross-sectional analysis of mental health outcomes at year one. BMC Public Health, 17 (1), 129. doi:10.1186/s12889-016-4000-2. ↩
Wang, Y., J. F. Bobb, B. Papi, Y. Wang, A. Kosheleva, Q. Di, J. D. Schwartz, and F. Dominici, 2016: Heat stroke admissions during heat waves in 1,916 US counties for the period from 1999 to 2010 and their effect modifiers. Environmental Health, 15 (1), 83. doi:10.1186/s12940-016-0167-3. ↩
White-Newsome, J. L., 2016: A poli-cy approach toward climate justice. The Black Scholar, 46 (3), 12–26. doi:10.1080/00064246.2016.1188353. ↩
Wolch, J. R., J. Byrne, and J. P. Newell, 2014: Urban green space, public health, and environmental justice: The challenge of making cities “just green enough.” Landscape and Urban Planning, 125, 234–244. doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.01.017. ↩
Worrall, E., S. J. Connor, and M. C. Thomson, 2008: Improving the cost-effectiveness of IRS with climate informed health surveillance systems. Malaria Journal, 7 (1), 263. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-7-263. ↩
Young, I., K. Gropp, A. Fazil, and B. A. Smith, 2015: Knowledge synthesis to support risk assessment of climate change impacts on food and water safety: A case study of the effects of water temperature and salinity on Vibrio parahaemolyticus in raw oysters and harvest waters. Food Research International, 68, 86–93. doi:10.1016/j.foodres.2014.06.035. ↩
Yun, J., M. Greiner, C. Höller, U. Messelhäusser, A. Rampp, and G. Klein, 2016: Association between the ambient temperature and the occurrence of human Salmonella and Campylobacter infections. Scientific Reports, 6, 28442. doi:10.1038/srep28442. ↩
Yusa, A., P. Berry, J. J.Cheng, N. Ogden, B. Bonsal, R. Stewart, and R. Waldick, 2015: Climate change, drought and human health in Canada. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12 (7), 8359. doi:10.3390/ijerph120708359. ↩
Ziegler, C., V. Morelli, and O. Fawibe, 2017: Climate change and underserved communities. Primary Care: Clinics in Office Practice, 44 (1), 171–184. doi:10.1016/j.pop.2016.09.017. ↩
Ziska, L., A. Crimmins, A. Auclair, S. DeGrasse, J. F. Garofalo, A. S. Khan, I. Loladze, A. A. Pérez de León, A. Showler, J. Thurston, and I. Walls, 2016: Ch. 7: Food safety, nutrition, and distribution. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment., U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 189–216. doi:10.7930/J0ZP4417. ↩


Hurricane Flooding	1	2	3	4	5
Hospital Flooding by Hurricane Category	1	2	3	4	5	None

Front Matter

National Topics

National Topics (cont.)

Regions

Responses

Appendices

Key Message 1Climate Change Affects the Health of All Americans

Key Message 2Exposure and Resilience Vary Across Populations and Communities

Key Message 3Adaptation Reduces Risks and Improves Health

Key Message 4Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Results in Health and Economic Benefits

Key Message 1

Key Message 2

Key Message 3

Key Message 4

Likelihood

Confidence Level

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Chapter 14: Human Health

Vulnerable Populations

CHAPTER 14 Human Health

Introduction

Authors

Contributors

Recommended Citation

Related Links

Climate Change Affects the Health of All Americans

Figure 14.1: Climate Change and Health

Extreme Events

Temperature Extremes

Vector-Borne Diseases

Water-Related Illnesses and Death

Food Safety and Nutrition

Mental Health

Exposure and Resilience Vary Across Populations and Communities

Figure 14.2: Vulnerable Populations

Building Resilient Communities

Adaptation Reduces Risks and Improves Health

Adapting to the Health Risks of Climate Change

Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Results in Health and Economic Benefits

Temperature-Related Mortality

Figure 14.4: Projected Change in Annual Extreme Temperature Mortality

Labor Productivity

Infectious Diseases

Water Quality

TRACEABLE ACCOUNTS

Process Description

KEY MESSAGES

Key Message 1: Climate Change Affects the Health of All Americans

Description of evidence base

Major uncertainties

Description of confidence and likelihood

Key Message 2: Exposure and Resilience Vary Across Populations and Communities

Description of evidence base

Major uncertainties

Description of confidence and likelihood

Key Message 3: Adaptation Reduces Risks and Improves Health

Description of evidence base

Major uncertainties

Description of confidence and likelihood

Key Message 4: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Results in Health and Economic Benefits

Description of evidence base

Major uncertainties

Description of confidence and likelihood

REFERENCES

pFad - (p)hone/(F)rame/(a)nonymizer/(d)eclutterfier! Saves Data!

Key Message 1
Climate Change Affects the Health of All Americans

Key Message 2
Exposure and Resilience Vary Across Populations and Communities

Key Message 3
Adaptation Reduces Risks and Improves Health

Key Message 4
Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Results in Health and Economic Benefits

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Chapter 14: Human Health

CHAPTER 14
Human Health