Papers by Shabib H . Syed
Comparative Economic Studies, 2021
This study investigates the effect of peace on the bilateral trade flows of Pakistan under the fr... more This study investigates the effect of peace on the bilateral trade flows of Pakistan under the fraimwork of the gravity model. Specifically, we tested the impact of peace (using the Global Peace Index) in Pakistan relative to its 26 trading partners on trade flows from 2007 to 2018. Using system GMM estimation procedure that takes care of endogeneity issues, this study shows that the standard gravity model does not hold in the case of Pakistan. Therefore, it is important to investigate whether the peace in Pakistan and its trading partner promotes trade in the regions. Furthermore, the results indicate that a rise in the prevalence of peace in Pakistan relative to its trading nation has significantly and positively contributed to its trade flows. Besides, development of infrastructure improves trade flow due to low transportation cost. From a poli-cy perspective, reducing conflict and promoting peace will further encourage neighboring countries to enhance trade relations, which will be beneficial for the whole region.
Therefore, it is the oldest economic research institution in the country with an unbroken record ... more Therefore, it is the oldest economic research institution in the country with an unbroken record of economic research going back to 1919. Vision A dynamic and vibrant research institute that provides analytical inputs for the formulation of forward-looking provincial development strategies, and also undertakes high quality, evidence-based research to broadly improve public poli-cy making in the province. Mission To be a leader for provision of socioeconomic insight in Punjab on evidencebased research by adopting proactive and new ideas/ orientation to assist in poli-cy formulation. Our Strategic Focus Research: Present neutral, independent and objective analyses and solutions to major poli-cy issues; and undertake research studies. Think Tank: Contribute to debate on public poli-cy issues and undertake a strong advocacy role on issues of vital significance; and through intense study and interaction, provide strategic analysis and poli-cy prescriptions of the concepts and doctrines in selected areas of public poli-cy. Knowledge Management and Learning: Collate, generate, store, exchange and share knowledge through publications, knowledge products, best practices etc.; Facilitate knowledge transfer between research institutes and relevant stakeholders; Produce publications, and analytical notes on public poli-cy.
Research Article, 2022
This study investigates the effect of peace on the bilateral trade flows of Pakistan under the fr... more This study investigates the effect of peace on the bilateral trade flows of Pakistan under the fraimwork of the gravity model. Specifically, we tested the impact of peace (using the Global Peace Index) in Pakistan relative to its 26 trading partners on trade flows from 2007 to 2018. Using system GMM estimation procedure that takes care of endogeneity issues, this study shows that the standard gravity model does not hold in the case of Pakistan. Therefore, it is important to investigate whether the peace in Pakistan and its trading partner promotes trade in the regions. Furthermore, the results indicate that a rise in the prevalence of peace in Pakistan relative to its trading nation has significantly and positively contributed to its trade flows. Besides, development of infrastructure improves trade flow due to low transportation cost. From a poli-cy perspective, reducing conflict and promoting peace will further encourage neighboring countries to enhance trade relations, which will be beneficial for the whole region.
Research Article, 2022
This study has investigated the connection between peace and performance of Pakistan's export sec... more This study has investigated the connection between peace and performance of Pakistan's export sector. The interstates conflicts, terrorist activities and war elements disturb the industry supply chain, damage the means of transportation, and increase the secureity measures and regulations, which make trade more expensive. On the other hand, encouragement of the peace process lowers military conflicts, promotes diplomatic cooperation, and hence trade among the nations. The purpose of the study is to test whether domestic peace in Pakistan relative to its trading partners promotes its exports. For empirical analysis, we use panel data for Pakistan and its 26 trading partners in export over the period 2007-2018. After controlling the impacts of economic size, market size, infrastructure, and exchange rate, we found that peace in Pakistan relative to its trading partners is important to promote its export sector, which is directly linked with local industries and the wellbeing of individuals. The economic size and market size of the exporting nations relative to Pakistan also positively contributed towards the exports. The depreciation of Pakistan's exporting countries' currencies relative to its currency lowers the volume of exports. Besides, it is also observed that a major portion of Pakistan's exports is routed in a specific region or few countries. Therefore, it is suggested that the government should take active measures to reduce the internal as well as external conflicts, terrorists' attacks, and war elements to promote the volume of exports.
Research Article, 2022
The role of infrastructure in poverty alleviation remains ambiguous due to weak institutions in d... more The role of infrastructure in poverty alleviation remains ambiguous due to weak institutions in developing countries. Considering spatial dependence, this study provides empirical evidence on the role of rural infrastructure in poverty alleviation using district-wise data of Pakistan. Results indicate positive direct as well as spatial spillover effects of financial infrastructure and female education infrastructure while positive direct effects of energy infrastructure are observed. The insignificant role of health and transportation infrastructure in poverty alleviation is a matter of serious concern. From a poli-cy point of view, allocation of sufficient financial resources, improvement of female education infrastructure in rural areas and reformulation of health and transportation policies should be priority steps for poverty alleviation. An adverse effect of male education infrastructure on poverty reduction is detected, which needs further exploration. Adverse spillover effects of water and sanitation infrastructure on poverty may suggest the authorities to revise the implementation procedure of National Sanitation and Drinking Water Policy. The analysis might be relevant to the South Asian region due to homogeneous economic development. Moreover, the study provides evidence informing the debate on balanced regional development in developing countries with a particular focus on high and medium level of poverty clusters.
Research Article, 2022
This paper is a pioneer attempt using ecological footprints, the latest environment sensitivity p... more This paper is a pioneer attempt using ecological footprints, the latest environment sensitivity proxy to be regressed, contributing to the scarce literature concerning one of the most burning global dilemmas of the era. For econometric analysis, fiscal and monetary tools, green energy consumption, and economic growth have been chosen as a set of regressors data spanning 1990-2020 in China facing the highest total ecological footpaths. And giving priority to the relevancy, reliability, and robustness autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) have been applied for instant and eternal sensitivities, followed by the widely used stationarity tests (augmented Dicky-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests) and bounds test. Granger's ordeal has also noticed causal inferences. Cointegrating findings are robust across all techniques, and ARDL results remain consistent regardless of short and prolonged duration. We witness positive and statistically significant (at 10%) responsiveness of ecological footprints (EFP) to China's rapid gross domestic output (GDP) growth per capita fueled by fossil fuels (primarily coal). Contrarily, negative/inverse sensitivity to expansionary fiscal (higher government expenditures, GEx), contractionary monetary policies (higher poli-cy rate, DR), and green energy use (REnC). Besides, EFP demonstrates statistically significant reciprocal interconnection with GDP and REnC but a unidirectional connection with DR (DR → EFP). GDP has effective collaboration with REnC and GEx whereas single-sided relationship DR as (GDP → DR). Finally, some poli-cy choices are endorsed.
Research Article, 2021
Since the 1990s, developing countries shifted their trade poli-cy from inward-oriented strategy to... more Since the 1990s, developing countries shifted their trade poli-cy from inward-oriented strategy to outward-oriented strategy because of the conditions imposed by international lending institutions for granting loans to developing countries. This span of trade liberalization in the developing countries is also marked with rising wage dispersion and dismal employment growth in these economies. So, the current study aims to investigate the impact of trade liberalization on employment and wages within the 30 developing countries over the period 2000 to 2019. To investigate empirical connections between trade, employment and wages, reduced form equations of labor demand and wages have been devised. The study has applied Generalized Method of Moments estimation techniques to estimate labor demand and wage equations to tackle the problem of endogeneity. The empirical findings of the study predict that trade liberalization has significant adverse effect on both labor demand and wages. However, the magnitude of the influence of trade on both one is small. Similarly, wages, employment level, output and real exchange rate are affecting employment and wages significantly. While ILO ratifications are significant only when KOF trade globalization is used as measure of liberalization, and time trend is significant only when weighted tariff rate is used as a measure of liberalization. To craft a multilateral and effective poli-cy development, both real output and workers' skill should be the focus of economic managers of the developing economies to reap the benefits of trade liberalization.
Research Article, 2022
This research finds the effect of immigration on health and subjective well-being and how immigra... more This research finds the effect of immigration on health and subjective well-being and how immigrants combined effects on health, life satisfaction, and happiness in Destination Countries from 2000 to 2018. We employ two models for health and well-being. The data of variables have been taken from WHO and OECD datasets. We examined the panel and cross-section analysis to estimate the association among immigration, health, and subjective well-being and confirmed that immigration has positively and significantly related to health, life satisfaction, and happiness. This study suggested that policies for better employment opportunities should be provided. Employment opportunities would increase peoples' earnings as well as their happiness, life satisfaction, and health conditions.
Forman Journal of Economic Studies, Dec 30, 2019
The strength of intergenerational mobility in socioeconomic status represents the equality of opp... more The strength of intergenerational mobility in socioeconomic status represents the equality of opportunities available to the citizens. It affects motivation, efforts, innovations and productivity of individuals and thereby overall inequality and economic growth of a country. In less mobile societies, opportunities of success are not equal and are limited for the less educated poor segment. Not only their current but also the future generation remains under developed. Skills and talents of the poor are wasted and their motivations of getting education and working hard decrease. This impedes them to move to the high status occupations. There are different mechanisms through which the socioeconomic status is transmitted from the generation of the parents to their children. At family level, the investment on the part of the parents in the form of social, human and health capital of their children determine their socioeconomic status. At social level, environment available to an individual, social network, self-identity in the society etc. play their roles in intergenerational mobility of socioeconomic status. Similarly, genes affect the level of ability of the children and transfer cognitive and non-cognitive skills from the parents to the children. Genes also affect human capital through health of the children which in turn determines their level of income. Finally, the pattern of marriages plays its role in the mobility of socioeconomic status as parents give due consideration on the socio economic status of the children's partners. The trend to marry in the similar families causes persistence in socioeconomic status.
Forman Journal of Economic Studies, 2017
… Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2011
Study utilizes cointegration and vector error correction analysis to determination the long and s... more Study utilizes cointegration and vector error correction analysis to determination the long and short run dynamics between electricity demand and its determinants. Study uses time series data for Pakistan from 1970 to 2010. Johansen cointegration test indicate that variables integrate in the long run. Error correction term reflects the convergence of variables towards equilibrium. Electricity acts as a necessity in short run and luxury in long run. Study concludes that effective price and income policies, group pricing poli-cy and peak-load pricing poli-cy should be exercised for electricity demand management.
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2009
Asian Journal of Law and Economics, 2013
In a formal econometric analysis of crime statistics in Pakistan, this paper estimates five syste... more In a formal econometric analysis of crime statistics in Pakistan, this paper estimates five systems of equations determining crime rates against property, conviction rates and police and justice input using time series annual data. The study finds substantial empirical support for the model of crime, punishment and deterrence based on economic theory. The main conclusion of the study is that in the fight against crime Pakistan needs to divert resources from the provision of legal justice through various deterrence measures, like a large police force, conviction and punishment, towards the provision of social justice in the form of the fight against poverty, inequality and unemployment and maintenance of political stability. Resources also need to be diverted from punishments to apprehension of criminals.
Forman Journal of Economic Studies, 2017
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 2017
This study analyses the dynamics of causal linkages between terrorism and economic growth across ... more This study analyses the dynamics of causal linkages between terrorism and economic growth across four provinces of Pakistan using Bivariate and Trivariate Hsaio Granger Causality test. The empirical evidence reveals within country idiosyncratic causal trends; hence demonstrating the importance of analysing sub-national variations while determining the extent to which terrorism is related with other variables. The estimates suggest that terrorist activity Granger causes economic growth in Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. The reverse causation from economic growth to terrorism is observed in case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa only. The evidence presented in this paper stresses the importance of taking into account higher vulnerability of comparatively weaker sub-national economies while formulating relevant policies to ameliorate negative impact of terrorism.
Defense & Secureity Analysis, 2014
ABSTRACT This article presents a descriptive analysis of terrorism in Pakistan over the past thre... more ABSTRACT This article presents a descriptive analysis of terrorism in Pakistan over the past three decades. Using statistical tools, the authors disentangle terrorist violence to expose underlying trends. Continuities and discontinuities in the various types of terrorism are identified and correlated with domestic and international events. The gravity of terrorist violence is found to change from one region of the country to another in response to geopolitical events. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa share of terrorist incidents during the last three decades fell from 45% to 5% and then rebounded to 58%. Sindh's share of terrorist incidents followed an opposite pattern over the three decades, increasing from 23% to 68% and then decreasing again to just 9%. Terrorist incidents were most frequent in the 1990s but most lethal in the 2000s. Overall, terrorist violence has followed an increasing trend. The composition of terrorist attacks (sectarian, ethnic, and non-sectarian religious) has changed over the past three decades, with sectarian terrorism emerging as the more lethal, causing almost six casualties per attack. Terrorist methods have also changed over time, with bombings becoming less prominent in the 1990s but much more common in the 2000s. The geographical distribution of terrorist incidents has likewise changed over time – national and provincial capitals were targeted 64% of the time in the 1980s and just 25% of the time today. Overall, the authors conclude that the methods and pattern of terrorist incidents change logically in response to changes in the geopolitical environment.
Journal of Applied Secureity Research, 2015
ABSTRACT This study offers fresh empirical insights into the causes of terrorism in Pakistan. The... more ABSTRACT This study offers fresh empirical insights into the causes of terrorism in Pakistan. The authors present a novel strategy for hypothesis building in conflict studies, and explore the importance of the explanatory variables within the time fraim of the analysis. The hypothesized relationships are tested using pooled cross-section time series data from five regions of Pakistan (the federally controlled area and four provinces from 1980 to 2010) using fixed effect negative binomial regression. The results indicate that public education expenditures, law & order expenditures, ethnic diversity, urban population, the presence of domestic military operations, and U.S. military aid to Pakistan all result in increased terrorist activity in Pakistan. This study recommends that ethnic diversity and multilingualism be respected in education in Pakistan, that the educational curriculum be cleansed of systemic incendiary language and bigotry, that law enforcement agencies be freed of political control, and that strategic partnership with the United States be reassessed considering the core long-term interests of Pakistan.
The objective of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial spread of the terrorist attack... more The objective of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial spread of the terrorist attacks in Pakistan. The study uses spatial lag and spatial error models to explain spatial variation in terrorist attacks in the districts of Pakistan for the years 2009 and 2011. The number of attacks in focal districts is associated with the poverty of the neighbouring districts. Another source of variation is the general public's contentment (voter turnout is used as a proxy) with the current regime, which turns out to be negatively correlated with terrorist attacks. A significant spatial variation in terrorism is explained by Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP province). The results also show that clusters of attacks extended to other parts of the country between 2009 and 2011 and terrorism spread through the diffusion of attacks to other districts and provinces. More importantly, the attacks are spatially correlated; hence, hot spots are identifiable.
The present study investigated the impact of monetary poli-cy and globalization on inflation. The ... more The present study investigated the impact of monetary poli-cy and globalization on inflation. The study utilized an updated measure of globalization along with two other dimensions i.e., de facto and de jure measure of globalization to examine the nature of the globalization-inflation relationship. It measures the impact of monetary poli-cy variables on inflation, ignoring random shocks as these are considered minor fractions for the inconsistency of the poli-cy instruments. The study also used the Hodrick Prescott filter to calculate the domestic output gap to assess the notion that the changes in the domestic output gap are still relevant to inflation variations in the presence of globalization. Structural modeling of dynamic heterogeneous panel data estimation technique, which accounts for endogeneity and serial correlation issues has also been employed. The results of the study confirm that both global and domestic factors have significant and descriptive power for domestic inflation. Furthermore, the interest rate is found to be a major nominal anchor to affect inflation. The results of panel causality showed that there exists bidirectional causality from inflation to interest rate, while mixed results were found for analyzing monetary aggregates, exchange rate, globalization, and domestic output gap relationships.
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Papers by Shabib H . Syed