Dry for the next week, potential storm around/after Christmas

TL;DR:

We remain dry for the next week; models are showing potential storminess around/after Christmas.

Nowcast:

We're seeing relatively warm temperatures (mid-to-high 20s °F) in the mountains under somewhat cloudy skies this morning after a day of light snowfall yesterday. For today, expect highs in the low to mid-30s °F along with a few clouds and possibly gusty winds in the afternoon.

Short-term:

The short-term is a little depressing. We'll see somewhat warm temperatures (near or above freezing at 10,000') with a potentially colder airmass next Sunday/Monday, and we'll remain pretty much bone dry - here's the snow ensembles for Alta for the next ten days:

Snow ensembles for Alta, courtesy of the University of Utah Dept of Atmospheric Sciences

That's a flat line if I've ever seen one, and it means pretty much no snow until at least the 25th. But some of you might have noticed that the situation changes after Christmas, so let's talk about it below...

Long-term:

Models are slowly starting to agree on a storm on or just after Christmas Day - the snow ensembles above show this and I've seen other models hint at similar outcomes as well. Perhaps Santa has some snow as Utah's Christmas present... It's too early to know details though so I'll keep it to this.

We will of course be keeping an eye on this here at Utah Ski Weather, so be sure check back over the next week to see how things are looking.

Thanks for reading!

If you will be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, check out utahavalanchecenter.org.

Snow tonight and Tuesday, long-term looks dry

TL;DR:

Light snow today through tomorrow morning will bring northern Utah mountains 4-8" of new snow, with potential for higher totals in LCC and the far northern mountains (Bear River Range). Tuesday brings another chance for snow, after which we will likely remain dry.

Nowcast:

We're seeing partly- to mostly-cloudy conditions alongside relatively warm temperatures and noticeable wind this morning; for today, expect more of the same along with light valley rain/mountain snow.

Short-term:

As mentioned, we'll see light and somewhat intermittent mountain snow from late morning/early afternoon today through tomorrow morning, with a more intense period of snowfall right around when lifts start spinning tomorrow; this is ideal for snow quality since it lines up with a period of colder (15-20 °F) high-elevation temps. Amounts are looking decent - I'm seeing 4-8" for most mountains, with LCC and the far northern mountains (think Bear River Range) doing slightly better than that. I'm also seeing fairly gusty winds throughout this period, so wear those layers!

Long-term:

I'd recommend getting your powder skiing in tomorrow; we're scheduled for another light dose of snow come Tuesday, but after that, things look pretty dry. Keep doing those snow dances...

Thanks for reading Utah Ski Weather!

Backcountry comments:

If you will be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you  have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, check out utahavalanchecenter.org.

March Delivers

Tl;Dr: More snow today, a break on Friday, more snow Saturday and Sunday. 

Nowcast: 

Winds blow from the south atop Little Cottonwood Canyon at a modest speed of 25 mph with gusts at 40. Those winds will continue throughout the morning, ushering in our next storm that will deliver 3-7" of new snow by the time chair lifts stop spinning today. Not bad, considering all of the snow the Wasatch has received this past week (see Michael's post from Tuesday). Temperatures sit in the high teens to low twenties, and winter is far from over. 

As of Tuesday, March 26, Alta officially passed their 43-year average snowfall when it hit 545" for the season. Yahoo! 

Short-Term:

Snow should start falling later this morning, with a big initial push right around 0900 - 1000 local. This front should linger throughout the rest of the day before tapering by tonight with snow in the forecast for tomorrow, Friday March 29. 

Here's what 1600 local looks like on the HRRR - you can see .25 inches of water by the end of the (resort) ski day, and with snow to liquid ratios of right around 18, that should amount to at least 5" of snow.  

HRRR initialized 1000 UTC per ATMOS Weather 

Things look to be dry tomorrow with perhaps some in and out flurries before the next wave of snow starts to knock on the door as early as Friday evening. 

https://weather.utah.edu/

Long-Term:

As stated, we have another storm rolling in to the Wasatch Saturday and Sunday. Looks like there might be another hit of moisture on Monday, too. 

More data per Professor Powder 

Spring in the Wasatch is the absolute greatest! 

Backcountry Comments: 

Yesterday's avalanche danger was mostly moderate, but please remember spring conditions change fast. Especially with all of the new snow we have gotten, there are still several reports of soft slab / new snow avalanches across the Wasatch. 

For all things backcountry, go over to the Utah Avalanche Center to get the latest safety and travel advisory. 

Soft on soft

TL;DR: Resorts are reporting more new snow today on top of the snow that fell over the weekend. Expect additional snow showers before a break on Wednesday into Thursday.

Nowcast: Under a west-northwest flow, mountain temperatures are in the teens to twenties, and it is snowing in the central Wasatch. Resorts are reporting between 1 and 6 inches of new snow on top of the snow that fell over the weekend, bringing storm totals to 1.5 to 2.5 FEET of snow. Skiing and riding is excellent in the Wasatch right now.

Source: Alta Ski Area

Short-Term Forecast:

On-and-off snow showers will continue today in a west-northwest flow, before tapering off as Wednesday approaches. The 6 UTC HRRR model calls for an additional 0.29 inches of precipitation for Alta by Wednesday morning (more further north near Ben Lomond Peak). 

Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science

With snow-to-liquid ratios around 15, we could se close to 5 more inches of snow today before things clear out and we see a brief period of ridging for tomorrow (see upper left panel below):

Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science

Mid-Long Range Forecast:

Snow begins in the central Wasatch again by late Thursday, continuing through the weekend with potentially significant accumulations. This storm does appear to be warmer, with mid-mountain temperatures close to 30 °F. However, it has substantial liquid, with the GFS model forecasting an additional 2.5 inches of precipitation and 30 inches of snow on top of the snow that will fall today.

Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science

Enjoy the excellent March powder!

Winter is BACK

  TL;DR:

Winter is far from over and it makes a triumphant return starting this afternoon; this week won't feature one single massive storm, but rather a slow and steady accumulation of snow.

 Nowcast:

It's windy and overcast in the mountains right now; at Snowbird's Hidden Peak, we've got sustained winds of around 25mph and gusts up to 45mph, with weaker winds at less exposed locations. Temperatures are fairly warm (25-30°F), but the windchill is dropping the feel-like values, so make sure you dress appropriately...

 Short-term:

Winter is not over yet, and it will make its return this afternoon with mountain snow starting around 3-4pm; it will snow solidly and consistently overnight before we transition into more showery snow tomorrow. I'm not expecting a whole lot out of this first wave... but I also tend to keep my expectations way too low :) At any rate, I'm forecasting around 6" for most mountains by tomorrow morning, with the potential for more in LCC.

In terms of snow quality, temps will crash tonight behind the cold front and bottom out in the mid-20s or so in the mountains; thus, I wouldn't expect blower pow tomorrow, but it should be fairly nice!

The Canadian model is quite enthused about another strong burst of snow overnight Sunday into Monday, but other models aren't as into it, so we'll see how that works out...

 Long-term:

The next seven days look promising for those of who who were craving a return to winter. Check out the model plumes for Canyons (top) and Alta (bottom):

You can see that the lines just keep going up, indicating slow and steady accumulation this week.

Enjoy the new snow! This may be true winter's grand finale before we transition into spring skiing...

If you choose to venture into the backcountry, make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, visit utahavalanchecenter.org.