Improved model will boost valuable NWS marine forecasts

Today, NOAA upgraded its flagship ocean and sea ice operational forecast system — the Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (Global RTOFS). Version 2.0 introduces a high-resolution ocean data assimilation capability to the forecast system for the first time. Global RTOFS provides predictions for up to eight days of ocean currents, salinity, temperature and sea ice conditions around the world.

The vessel track shown here illustrates how the ship had to significantly slow while crossing the Gulf Stream due to hazardous wave conditions. Forecasters at NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center regularly use Global RTOFS to provide accurate and reliable predictions to protect life and property at sea during extreme weather events over open waters.

The Global RTOFS model is primarily used by forecasters at NOAA’s Ocean Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center, both divisions of the National Weather Service. The model provides numerical guidance for marine forecasts and warnings, including those from hurricanes and other extreme weather events over open waters, islands and coastal regions. The U.S. Coast Guard also uses this ocean forecasting system routinely, especially during search and rescue operations.

“NOAA continues to make significant technological leaps that greatly benefit the future of numerical weather prediction, and as a result, improve our forecasts to better protect life and property,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D, acting NOAA administrator. “This upgrade leverages the very latest in ocean modeling capabilities and will enhance NOAA’s operational global forecasting capabilities and America’s vital maritime economy.”

Testing showed that the upgraded Global RTOFS improved hurricane track and intensity forecasts, and provided more detailed and improved sea ice concentrations in the Arctic and Antarctic. Forecasts also showed improvements in sea surface temperatures and near-surface ocean conditions in all global oceanic basins.

Global RTOFS is part of a larger national backbone capability of ocean modeling at the National Weather Service in partnership with the U.S. Navy.

“Each day, our marine forecasters use a suite of models, including Global RTOFS, to provide accurate predictions and warnings to protect the life and cargo of thousands of mariners at sea,” said A.J. Reiss, director of the Ocean Prediction Center. “This upgrade sets the stage for improved and integrated ocean and sea ice forecasts as a key component of NOAA’s fully coupled Unified Forecast System, and supports NOAA’s ice forecasting capability.”

The upgraded coupled ocean-sea ice forecast system will now include ocean and sea ice data assimilation performed at NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Prediction. This enhancement will replace analysis previously performed by the US Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center.

The advancements made to the Global RTOFS help pave the way forward for future ocean, sea ice and coupled data assimilation efforts at the National Weather Service —  leading to improved forecast skill and products, and helping to build a more Weather-Ready Nation.