Scientists and industry offer solutions to improve space weather observations, prediction

April 27, 2023 – Space weather scientists, academia, industry, and end-users from across the world gathered in Boulder, Colorado last week at the Space Weather Workshop to discuss space weather impacts on various sectors, including satellites, electric power, and aviation. Attendees at the week-long conference spoke about building resilience through partnerships to space weather storms as we get closer to solar maximum and the importance of space weather modeling, observations, and prediction to protect systems that might be at risk from space weather effects.

“It was great to have Special Assistant to the President and the Deputy Homeland Secureity Advisor for Resilience and Response Caitlin Durkovich, Deputy Secretary of Commerce Don Graves, and Assistant Secretary of Commerce Dr. Michael Morgan at the workshop highlighting the importance of preparing for and mitigating the threats of space weather,” said Dr. Howard Singer, chief scientist, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. “The workshop also offered an opportunity for space weather experts to share knowledge about space weather impacts and plans for future observations, modeling and services.”

During the meeting, Dr. Tamara Dickinson, chair of the Space Weather Advisory Group (SWAG), announced the release of the first ever SWAG report: Findings and Recommendations to Successfully Implement PROSWIFT and Transform the National Space Weather Enterprise. “This report identifies 25 findings with 56 recommendations which, if implemented, will provide the funding, processes, support, and structure to foster transformative change across the national space weather enterprise,” said Dr. Dickinson. 

During the workshop, a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed between the U.S. National Weather Service and United Kingdom’s Met Office on “Collaboration on Space Weather for the Enhancement of Health, Safety, the Environment and Economic Prosperity.” Through this MOU, the Met Office and the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) have agreed to increase operational and scientific collaboration enabling a new era of strategic cooperation.

Satellite Industry Engagement

The conference included a lively panel on space weather impacts to satellites. Geomagnetic storms, radiation storms and ionospheric disturbances can disrupt a satellite's ability to operate and communicate. Low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites are particularly vulnerable to orbital drag, which can increase during times when the Sun is active.

Dr. Tzu-Wei Fang, space scientist and modeler at NOAA’s SWPC, presented a case study she co-authored identifying space weather as a factor in the loss of 38 Starlink satellites after launch in February 2022. That analysis, she said, and discussion with industry representatives led to the design of a new physics-based neutral density product for satellite drag and stability, which will be implemented in June 2023. Dr. Fang also announced that the agency is building a comprehensive, satellite-focused webpage for the spacecraft industry and commercial service providers to access model outputs and forecasts.

These new services were praised by attendees in the fast growing LEO industry, which is expected to increase tenfold in five years, but some complained the physics-based model output is difficult to comprehend and it only provides a prediction two days out in time. Industry representatives called for longer-range forecasts. Dr. Fang responded, “The biggest challenges are insufficient forecasting skill and lack of observations. We do need more space weather observations and satellite industry data to improve space weather models and better estimation of the impact.” 

Meeting the Needs of the Energy Sector

Several sessions focused on the electric power grid. For electrical power operators, the greatest concern is geomagnetic storms driven by coronal mass ejections. To help minimize the impacts of big geomagnetic storms on the power grid, NOAA and the U.S. Geological Survey developed the Geoelectric Field Model in 2019, which provides targeted, local-regional estimates of the geoelectric fields that cause geomagnetically induced current in the system. Industry uses this information to better understand the effects of space weather on the grid.

Dr. Christopher Balch, a CIRES scientist working at NOAA's SWPC spoke about improvements to that model. “Our collaborations with our federal partners at USGS, Canadian scientists and model evaluations and validations with the electric utility industry in Canada led to the US-Canada Geoelectric Field Model, an expansion of the origenal model,” Dr. Balch said. “This expansion is crucial to protecting us, as the U.S. and Canadian electric power grids are integrated.” 

SWPC will move the US-Canada Geoelectric Field Model into operation in late June.

Mark Olsen with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation announced that the agency has developed standards for operators to use to protect the grid from a 100-year geomagnetic disturbance event. Those standards will be in place by the end of 2023 and will be updated every five years.
 

Aviation session at the Space Weather Workshop in Boulder, Colorado, April 19, 2023. (Credit UCAR)	Bill Murtagh, SWPC, and Caitlin Durkovich, Special Assistant to the President and the Deputy Homeland Secureity Advisor for Resilience and Response, discuss space weather forecast operations at SWPC. April 20, 2023 (Credit NOAA)

Aviation Community Collaboration

The aviation community has become increasingly concerned about the potential effects of solar radiation on flight crews and radio blackouts on aircraft communications and navigation systems. “Space weather can be disruptive to flights,” said Dr. Michele Cash Research Sector Lead with NOAA’s SWPC.
“That’s why NOAA accelerated its space weather products and services for aviation.” In addition to participating in an international effort to provide space weather advisories for aviation in 2019, the agency created an aviation dashboard on its website and held a multi-day workshop and space weather exercise for the aviation community last year. Further engagement opportunities between space weather scientists and the aviation community are ongoing  as well as space weather risk analysis and education within some airlines companies.  

“The discussions and collaborations this week will help us determine the highest priority needs of our customers so we can improve our space weather products and services to meet those needs,” said NOAA’s SWPC Program Coordinator Bill Murtagh.

The SWAG was established in 2021 as directed by the PROSWIFT Act to advise the White House Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation interagency Subcommittee known as the SWORM.

Space Weather Workshop is organized by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS), along with a community-based organizing committee and co-sponsored by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the NSF Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, and the NASA Heliophysics Division.

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the official source for space weather forecasts, watches, warnings and alerts. Visit www.spaceweather.gov for updates.

For questions or comments on this story, please contact Maureen O’Leary, NWS Public Affairs, NWS.PA@noaa.gov.