Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 00Z Fri Nov 01 2024

...Mountain snow continues over parts of the central and northern Rockies
through Wednesday...

...Record warmth expands into the Eastern U.S. through Thursday...

...Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central and
southern Plains as well as the middle and lower Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday...

A potent storm system located over the central and northern Rockies will
continue to produce moderate to heavy snow across the high elevations of
Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado tonight into Wednesday. An injection of colder
air combined with a tap of significant moisture will result in snow
accumulations up to a foot for many mountain ranges in the region. The
snow will make for difficult travel over the high mountain passes,
especially during the nighttime and early morning hours tonight into
Wednesday. Numerous Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect. Be prepared for winter driving conditions and slower
travel should you need to venture out into the high country. In the wake
of the storm, much colder air will lead to frost and freeze concerns for
the lower elevations tonight and again on Wednesday night, likely marking
an end to the growing season for many locations.

Out ahead of the storm and cold front that is bringing snow to parts of
the central and northern Rockies is a surge of unseasonable warmth that is
gradually expanding eastward from the Central U.S. to the Eastern U.S.
through Thursday. High temperatures will soar into the 70s and 80s across
a large portion of the eastern half of the country the next couple of
days, with highs eclipsing the 90 degree mark across parts of the southern
Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. Temperatures will remain
quite mild at night as well, with overnight lows dropping only into the
50s and 60s. Compared to climatology, temperatures that warm this late in
the year are easily 25 to 35 degrees above normal... and are likely to set
many daily high and high minimum temperature records through Thursday. In
fact, many places across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are likely to
experience their warmest Halloween on record, making for rather pleasant
conditions for trick-or-treating Thursday evening.

The period of record warmth will come to an end across much of the Central
U.S. by Wednesday night into Thursday as a passing cold front is forecast
to bring much cooler temperatures into the region. Before that comes to
fruition, the cold front will be responsible for sparking widespread
showers and thunderstorms across a large portion of the nation's
midsection Wednesday afternoon, evening, and night. Some of the storms
that develop will have the potential to become severe, with damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes possible. As a result, The Storm
Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms
(level 3 of 5) for southeast Nebraska, Northwest Missouri, much of eastern
Kansas, and parts of northeast Oklahoma. Outside the Enhanced Risk lies a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5) which extends from
southwest Iowa parts of northern Texas. In addition to the severe threat,
a few stronger storms could produce heavy rainfall. Despite recent
dryness, isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be completely ruled
out... and the anomalous moisture in play was enough for the Weather
Prediction Center to issue a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive
rainfall from central Wisconsin south to northeastern Texas.


Miller



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php