NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected today into early tonight, particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area into the southern Plains.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Wed (10/30)	Thu (10/31)	Fri (11/01)	Sat (11/02)	Sun (11/03)	Mon (11/04)	Tue (11/05)	Wed (11/06)
Severe	Enhanced	Marginal	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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MDs

Outlooks

Fire

Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 30 Oct

Tornado Probabilities: 30 Oct

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 30 Oct

Severe Hail Probabilities: 30 Oct

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 30 Oct

Significant Wind Probabilities: 30 Oct

Significant Hail Probabilities: 30 Oct

More severe weather climatology data here.

2024 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: October 29 2024 12:28 UTC

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What's My Risk?

La tormenta factor de riesgo.

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2024 Severe Tstm Watch Summary

Page last modified: October 29 2024 12:28 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 30 Oct

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 30 Oct

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 30 Oct

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 30 Oct

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024: Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF] (supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements [27170K MP4]), (supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements [33950K MP4])
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [10595K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part I: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6899K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., 2023: A Comparison of Right-Moving Supercell and Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States 2003-21. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4539K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., K.A. Wilson, J.J. Choate, K. Knopfmeier, P. Skinner, B. Roberts^*, P.L. Heinselman, I.L. Jirak, and A.J. Clark, 2022: Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4328K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part II: Impacts on QPFs. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [5607K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part I: Changes in Cold Pool Evolution. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3655K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., M.S. Elliott, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2022: Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2549K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Oct 24, 2024	Tornado: 0	Wind: 39	Hail: 12

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