The likelihood of severe convective weather is related to the local atmospheric environment. The empirical relations have recently been shown to capture aspects of the climatology and year-to-year variability of U.S. severe weather on continental and regional scales. Moreover, predicted monthly index values based on the operational NOAA Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) have been demonstrated to have statistically significant skill. Given such developments, it is anticipated that operational forecast models may be able to capture meaningful modulation of severe weather environments, and thereby provide forecasters with extended-range guidance about severe weather activity. Two primary obstacles to forecaster use of such tools are the lack of suitable skill assessments and the lack of methodologies with which to identify low-uncertainty forecasts (e.g., on the basis of forecast consistency). The purpose of this project is to provide assessments and tools for CFSv2 forecasts as well as for medium-range forecast models. (Learn more …)
