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2. Assessing the Impact of Basel III: Evidence from Structural Macroeconomic Models. (2022). Straughan, Michael ; Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume ; Röhrs, Sigrid ; Nikolov, Kalin ; Mohimont, Jolan ; Mimir, Yasin ; DE BANDT, OLIVIER ; Scalone, Valerio ; Ichiue, Hibiki ; Durdu, Bora.
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1. (2013), Dorich et al. (2013) and Rees et al. (2016)). The posterior modes on the parameters regarding corporate and housing investment adjustment costs move relatively little compared to their prior means in spite of relatively loose prior distributions. This is likely to be a sign of some identification issues (but it may also be due to prior means that correspond well with data and the system priors). In the banking sector, the posterior modes of the interest rate adjustment costs indicate a somewhat lower pass-through of corporate and household interest rates and a higher pass-through for deposit rates, compared to prior means. Foreign sector parameters move relatively little compared to their prior means. As mentioned above, this is expected as most of these parameters were only weakly identified in the identification analysis and we set quite tight priors.
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34. Inflation is detrended by the inflation target of 2.5 percent.29 The trend in imported inflation is assumed to be lower than that in overall inflation because of the continuous terms of trade gains from low import price inflation that Norway has enjoyed over the sample period. These gains have been slightly smaller in the latter years and are expected to remain so going forward. An upward trend shift in imported inflation is therefore assumed after 2012.
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35. JEL: E52, E58, G01 Keywords: leaning against the wind, monetary policy, financial cycle, macroprudential policy ∗ We thank SeHyoun Ahn, Karsten Gerdrup, Tord Krogh, Junior Maih, Lars E.O. Svensson, and participants at the 55th Annual Conference of the Canadian Economics Association, the 2021 EEA-ESEM Congress, 52nd Annual Conference of the Money, Macro and Finance Society, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve Board, Norges Bank, the OECD, and Statistics Norway for valuable discussions and comments. This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of Norges Bank or the Norwegian Ministry of Finance. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Norges Bank or the Norwegian Ministry of Finance. Any errors are our own. Email: thore.kockerols@norges-bank.no, emk@fin.dep.no, yasin.mimir@norges-bank.no.
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41. Kravik, E. M. and Y. Mimir (2019): “Navigating with NEMO,” Staff Memo 5, Norges Bank. Kravik, E. M., Y. Mimir, and K. S. Paulsen (n.d.): “A complete documentation of Norges Bank’s policy model NEMO,” Tech. rep., Norges Bank, http://www.norges-bank.no/ en/Monetary-policy/Models-for-monetary-policy-analysis-and-forecasting/NEMO/, continuously updated.
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44. Our setup is inspired by and very similar to Gelain et al. (2017) except that the latter study assumes that the households refinance a fixed fraction of the mortgage in every period, collateralised by the same fraction of their housing wealth. The labour market is characterised by monopolistic competition. Households supply labour and set wages subject to demand from the intermediate goods sector and the oil supply sector. Real wages are set as a markup over the marginal rate of substitution of consumption for leisure (see first-order conditions below). As there is assumed to be full labour mobility between the two sectors, there is only one wage level in the economy. Household j faces the following labour demand curve from the intermediate goods sector and the oil sector: Lt(j) =
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45. Rotemberg, J. J. (1982): “Sticky Prices in the United States,” Journal of Political Economy, 90, 1187–1211.
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50. Svensson, L. (2013): “Leaning Against the Wind Leads to Higher (Not Lower) Household Debt-to-GDP Ratio,” Tech. rep., Stockholm School of Economics.
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51. Svensson, L. E. (2017a): “Cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 90, 193 – 213.
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52. Table 6 lists the empirical ratios (averages over the period 2010-2016) and the model’s steady-state counterparts.
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53. We follow Gelain et al. (2017) in that the loan principal repayment share follows from an (approximated) annuity loan repayment formula: δB t+1 (j) = 1 − IB,t (j) Bh,t (j) ! δB t (j) αh + IB,t (j) Bh,t (j) 1 − αh κh , (20) where αh and κh are exogenous parameters that govern the dynamics of amortisation rate. In the case of αh equal to 0, δB t (j) = 1 for all t, i.e. Bh,t (j) = IB,t (j), but if αh > 0, the above repayment formula captures the fact that the amortisation rate is low during the first years after taking up a mortgage when interest payments are high and increases thereafter. We calibrate αh and κh to capture the repayment schedule of a typical mortgage contract of 30 years. 6
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1. Does “Lean Against the Wind” monetary policy improve welfare in a commodity exporter?. (2024). Tsomocos, Dimitrios ; Shirobokov, A ; Peiris, M U.
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2. Financial cycle comovement with monetary and macroprudential policy and global factors: Evidence from India. (2024). Bicchal, Motilal ; Mundra, Sruti.
   In: The North American Journal of Economics and Finance.
   RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:71:y:2024:i:c:s1062940824000457.

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3. ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis. (2024). Priftis, Romanos ; Banbura, Marta ; Kase, Hanno ; Fagan, Gabriel ; Rigato, Rodolfo Dinis ; Bokan, Nikola ; Zimic, Sreko ; Babura, Marta ; Warne, Anders ; Angelini, Elena ; Santoro, Sergio ; Von-Pine, Eliott ; Paredes, Joan ; Paries, Matthieu Darracq ; Invernizzi, Marco ; Muller, Georg ; Ciccarelli, Matteo ; Giammaria, Alessandro ; Montes-Galdon, Carlos ; Cocchi, Sara ; Lalik, Magdalena ; Brunotte, Stella ; Kornprobst, Antoine ; Koutsoulis, Iason ; Gumiel, Jose Emilio.
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   In: School of Economics Discussion Papers.
   RePEc:sur:surrec:0423.

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4. Leaning against persistent financial cycles with occasional crises. (2023). Mimir, Yasin.
   In: Working Papers.
   RePEc:stm:wpaper:56.

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5. Monetary Policy and Endogenous Financial Crises. (2023). Manea, Cristina ; Gali, Jordi ; Collard, Fabrice ; Boissay, Frederic.
   In: Working Papers.
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6. Doubts about the model and optimal policy. (2023). Karantounias, Anastasios.
   In: Journal of Economic Theory.
   RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:210:y:2023:i:c:s002205312300039x.

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7. Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis. (2023). Górajski, Mariusz ; Kuchta, Zbigniew ; Gorajski, Mariusz.
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8. The global savings glut and the housing boom. (2023). Jorgensen, Peter Lihn.
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9. The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area. (2023). Signoretti, Federico ; Nikolov, Kalin ; Ambrocio, Gene ; Heider, Florian ; Jovanovic, Mario ; Lewis, Vivien ; Miettinen, Pavo ; Policy, Monetary ; Bonatti, Guido ; Prieto, Esteban ; Redak, Vanessa ; Altavilla, Carlo ; Geiger, Felix ; Chalamandaris, Dimitrios ; Fourel, Valere ; Jan, Jansen David ; Kok, Christoffer ; Mazelis, Falk ; Balfoussia, Hiona ; Licak, Marek ; Patriek, Matic ; Pogulis, Armands ; Adolf, Petra ; Garabedian, Garo ; Cassar, Alan ; Weigert, Benjamin ; Fahr, Stephan ; Ioannidis, Michael ; Vlassopoulos, Thomas ; Maddaloni, Angela ; Klein, Melanie ; Papageorghiou, Maria ; Galati, Gabriele ; Fernandez, Luis ; Busch, Ulrike ; Valderrama, Maria ; Bussiere, Mat
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12. Housing and Macroeconomics. (2022). Leung, Charles.
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13. Monetary Policy and Endogenous Financial Crises. (2022). Manea, C ; Gali, J ; Collard, F ; Boissay, F.
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15. Banking deregulation, macroeconomic dynamics and monetary policy. (2022). Prieto, Esteban ; Eickmeier, Sandra ; Buch, Claudia M.
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16. Monetary and macroprudential policy coordination with biased preferences. (2022). Jackson, Timothy P ; Agenor, Pierre-Richard.
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17. Housing and Macroeconomics. (2022). Leung, Charles.
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20. Monetary policy and endogenous financial crises. (2022). Collard, Fabrice ; Manea, Cristina ; Gali, Jordi ; Boissay, Jose Frederic.
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22. Monetary policy and endogenous financial crises. (2021). Collard, Fabrice ; Manea, C ; Gali, Jordi ; Boissay, F.
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23. Monetary Policy and Endogenous Financial Crises. (2021). Collard, Fabrice ; Manea, Cristina ; Gali, Jordi ; Boissay, Frederic.
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24. Macroprudential policy coordination in a currency union. (2021). Jia, Pengfei ; Jackson, Timothy ; Agenor, Pierre-Richard.
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25. The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area. (2021). Weigert, Benjamin ; Rodriguez-Moreno, Maria ; Prieto, Esteban ; Nikolov, Kalin ; Maddaloni, Angela ; Mazelis, Falk ; Lewis, Vivien ; Geiger, Felix ; Martin, Alberto ; Jovanovic, Mario ; Miettinen, Pavo ; Andreeva, Desislava ; Cuciniello, Vincenzo ; Albertazzi, Ugo ; Heider, Florian ; Redak, Vanessa ; Bonatti, Guido ; Licak, Marek ; Jan, Jansen David ; Garabedian, Garo ; Altavilla, Carlo ; Chalamandaris, Dimitrios ; Fourel, Valere ; Pogulis, Armands ; Carlo Altavilla , ; Balfoussia, Hiona ; Ioannidis, Michael ; Patriek, Matic ; Fernandez, Luis ; Kok, Christoffer ; Cassar, Alan ; Klein, Melanie ; Papageorghiou, Maria ; Fahr, Stephan ; Falagiarda, Matteo ; Adolf, Petra ;
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27. Monetary Policy and Endogenous Financial Crises. (2021). Manea, Cristina ; Gali, Jordi ; Collard, Fabrice ; Boissay, Frederic.
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29. When could macroprudential and monetary policies be in conflict?. (2020). Garcia, Jose David ; Levieuge, Gregory.
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30. Monetary Policy, Prudential Policy, and Banks Risk-Taking: A Literature Review. (2020). NGAMBOU DJATCHE, Melchisedek Joslem.
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32. Doubts about the Model and Optimal Policy. (2020). Karantounias, Anastasios.
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33. A case for leaning against the wind in a commodity-exporting economy. (2020). Sinyakov, Andrey ; Ponomarenko, Alexey ; Kozlovtceva, Irina ; Tatarintsev, Stas.
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35. A Markov-Chain Measure of Systemic Banking Crisis Frequency. (2020). TAMBAKIS, DEMOSTHENES.
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36. Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies for Financial Stability in a Commodity-Exporting Economy. (2020). Khotulev, Ivan ; Styrin, Konstantin.
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37. Optimal monetary and macroprudential policies for financial stability in a commodity-exporting economy. (2019). Khotulev, Ivan ; Styrin, Konstantin.
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