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- To minimize endogeneity concerns and to control for the impact of the multiple announcements on the same topic, we focus only on the key announcements as in Ait Sahalia et al. (2012). The approach is also consistent with empirical evidence in Bahaj (2014) who shows that only top 10% of events he identi…es contribute to 80-90% of the variance of the intra-day sovereign yield changes.
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- We use block adaptive Random Walk Metropolis Hastings algorithm (Roberts and Rosenthal, 2009) for generating MCMC samples. The vector of unknown parameters is divided in three non-overlapping blocks. Let b denote the bth block of the parameters. The algorithm to construct chain of length M contains two main steps. Step 1: Draw a candidate vector of parameter values in block b, b, as: b = b + b, where b is the current state of the vector of parameter values in block b and b is a jump proposal vector sampled from the mixture of normal distributions de…ned below. 28 Alternatively, the steps can be repeated over the full sample, with no eect on the results.
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