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Value Added in Motion: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon. (2017). Fontagné, Lionel ; Fouré, Jean.
In: Development Working Papers.
RePEc:csl:devewp:425.

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  1. General Equilibrium in the Long Run: a Tentative Quantification of the SSP scenarios. (2017). Fontagné, Lionel ; Foure, Jean.
    In: Conference papers.
    RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332833.

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  1. Bloom, D.; Canning, D.; Fink, G. & Finlay, J. (2009), 'Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend', Journal of Economic Growth 14(2), 79-101.

  2. Dynamics Dynamics in MIRAGE are of two kinds: the total factor productivity (TFP) is calibrated in a baseline exercise, while production factors dynamics are set exogenously. Both are built in MIRAGE using macroeconomic projections from the MaGE model documented in Fouré (2013).
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  3. Dynamics in MIRAGE is implemented in a sequentially recursive way. That is, the equilibrium can be solved successively for each period, given the exogenous trajectory for sector-specific TFP calibrated as describe above, as well as the accumulation of production factors – savings, current accounts, active population and skill level – and an exogenous energy-specific productivity coming from the growth model. Simulations extend up to 2035. Finally, MIRAGE is calibrated on the GTAP dataset version 8.1, with 2007 as a base year.
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  4. Fontagné & Fouré Value Added in Motion APPENDIX E: MIRAGE SHORT DESCRIPTION As a complement to the short description given in the main text, the main elements of the MIRAGE model’s structure are sketched below. The latest version of the MIRAGE model, used here, is documented in Fontagné et al. (2013), the original model being fully described in Bchir et al. (2002) and Decreux and Valin (2007). Supply Side On the supply side, each sector in MIRAGE is modeled as a representative firm, which combines value-added and intermediate consumption in fixed shares. Value-added is a CES bundle of imperfectly substitutable primary factors (capital, skilled and unskilled labor, land and natural resources). Firms’ demand for production factors is organized as a CES aggregation of land, natural resources, unskilled labor, and a bundle of the remaining factors. This bundle is a nested CES aggregate of skilled labor and capital (that are considered as relatively more complementary).
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  5. Herwartz, H. & Xu, F. (2009), 'Panel data model comparison for empirical saving-investment relations', Applied Economics Letters 16(8), 803-807.

  6. Higgins, M. (1998), 'Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows', International Economic Review 39(2), 343-369.

  7. Masson, P. R.; Bayoumi, T. A. & Samiei, H. (1998), 'International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving', World Bank Economic Review 12(3), 483-501.

  8. TFP is based on the combination of three mechanisms. First, agricultural productivity is projected separately, as detailed in Fontagné et al. (2013). Second, a 2 percentage point growth difference between TFP in manufactures and services is assumed (as in van den Mensbrugghe, 2005). Third, the aggregate country-level TFP is calibrated in the baseline exercise in order to match both production factors and GDP projections from the aggregate growth model, given the exogenous agricultural productivity and the productivity gap between manufacturing and services.
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  9. Vandenbussche, J.; Aghion, P. & Meghir, C. (2006), 'Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital', Journal of economic growth 11(2), 97-127.

  10. Within each sector, goods are differentiated by their origin. A nested CES function allows for a particular status for domestic products according to the usual Armington hypothesis (Armington, 1969): consumers’ and firms’ choices are biased towards domestic production, and therefore domestic and foreign goods are imperfectly substitutable, using a CES specification. We use Armington elasticities provided by the GTAP database (Global Trade Analysis Project) and estimated by Hertel et al. (2007). Total demand is built from final consumption, intermediate consumption and investment in capital goods.
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