- , (A.35) where dHd t is the growth rate of hours per worker for category d and dNd t is the growth rate of employment for category d. The different categories are weighted by their shares in total labour compensation, wd t . We compute these shares by using data from the EU Structure of Earnings Survey. This survey is available every four years, starting in 2002, and we linearly interpolate values for the weights in all periods with missing data. Capital input To construct a measure of capital input, we use data on real investment (gross fixed capital formation, seasonally adjusted and in chain-linked volumes) from 69We also correct two anomalies in the Italian data for hours per worker (in 2002Q2 and 2003Q1) through linear interpolation for these two quarters.
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- 65Data is available at https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/ 2016/updating-the-recession-risk-and-the-excess-bond-premium-20161006.html. 66The newspapers used are Le Monde and Le Figaro for France, Handelsblatt and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung for Germany, Corriere Della Sera and La Repubblica for Italy, and El Mundo and El Pais for Spain.
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- 71The data can be accessed at https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/ indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/, and was last updated on March 3, 2022.
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- â (1996). Macroeconomic Implications of Variation in the Workweek of Capital. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 27 (2), 79â134.
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- â (2014b). Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession.
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- â and â (2002). Aggregate Productivity and Aggregate Technology. European Economic Review, 46 (6), 963â991, iSOM.
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- â and JORGENSON, D. W. (1967). Tax policy and investment behavior. The American Economic Review, 57 (3), 391â414.
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â and MATTEY, J. (1997). Capacity utilization. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11 (1), 151â167.
- â and PHILIPPON, T. (2017). Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S. Working Paper 23583, National Bureau of Economic Research.
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- â, â and SHAPIRO, M. D. (2001). Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment? Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 55 (1), 117â165.
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- â, â, FISHER, J. and KIMBALL, M. S. (2013). Sector-Specific Technical Change. Mimeo.
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- â, INKLAAR, R. and RUZIC, D. (2023). The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends? Working paper.
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AGHION, P., BERGEAUD, A., BOPPART, T., KLENOW, P. J. and LI, H. (2019). Missing growth from creative destruction. American Economic Review, 109 (8), 2795â2822.
AUTOR, D. H., DORN, D. and HANSON, G. H. (2016). The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade. Annual Review of Economics, 8 (1), 205â240.
BAKER, S. R., BLOOM, N. and DAVIS, S. J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty.
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BARKAI, S. (2020). Declining Labor and Capital Shares. The Journal of Finance, 75 (5), 2421â2463.
BASU, S. (2019). Are Price-Cost Markups Rising in the United States? A Discussion of the Evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33 (3), 3â22.
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BRYNJOLFSSON, E., ROCK, D. and SYVERSON, C. (2018). The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies. Working Paper 25148, National Bureau of Economic Research.
BURNSIDE, C., EICHENBAUM, M. and REBELO, S. (1995). Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale. In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, pp. 67â124.
- Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132 (4), 1915â1967.
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CESA-BIANCHI, A., THWAITES, G. and VICONDOA, A. (2020). Monetary policy transmission in the United Kingdom: A high frequency identification approach. European Economic Review, 123, 103375.
CHRISTIANO, L. J. and FITZGERALD, T. J. (2003). The Band Pass Filter. International Economic Review, 44 (2), 435â465.
- com. For European countries, the measure is a monthly index based on newspaper articles on policy uncertainty (articles containing the terms uncertain or uncertainty, economic or economy, and one or more policyârelevant terms). The number of economic uncertainty articles is then normalized by a measure of the number of articles in the same newspaper and month, and the resulting newspaper-level monthly series is standardized to unit standard deviation prior to 2011. Finally, the country-level EPU series is obtained as the simple average of the series for the countryâs newspapers, and normalized to have a mean of 100 prior to 2011.66 For the United States, measurement is more sophisticated, considering not only newspaper articles, but also the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire in future years and disagreement among economic forecasters.
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COMIN, D. A., QUINTANA, J., SCHMITZ, T. G. and TRIGARI, A. (2020). Measuring TFP: The Role of Profits, Adjustment Costs, and Capacity Utilization. Working Paper 28008, National Bureau of Economic Research.
CORRADO, C., HASKEL, J., JONA-LASINIO, C. and IOMMI, M. (2012). Intangible Capital and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement Methods and Comparative Results. IZA Discussion Papers 6733, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
COSTELLO, D. M. (1993). A Cross-Country, Cross-Industry Comparison of Productivity Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 101 (2), 207â222.
CROUZET, N. and EBERLY, J. C. (2021). Intangibles, Markups, and the Measurement of Productivity Growth. Working Paper 29109, National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Cumulated Growth (log changes) 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Year Adjustment costs Baseline series Spain 0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1 Cumulated Growth (log changes) 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Year Adjustment costs Baseline series France â.08 â.06 â.04 â.02 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Year Solow BFK Our series United States â 23 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Cumulated Growth 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Year Solow BFK Our series United States â 42 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Cumulated Growth 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Year Solow BFK Our series United States â 44_45 0 .2 .4 .6 Cumulated Growth 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Year Solow BFK Our series United States â 511 â.5 â.4 â.3 â.2 â.1 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Year Solow BFK Our series United States â 3364_3369 Figure A.10: Industry-level TFP growth, United States, non-manufacturing â.1 0 .1 .2 Cumulated Growth 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Year Solow BFK Our series United States â 22 â.25 â.2 â.15 â.1 â.05 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Germany â I â.06 â.04 â.02 0 .02 Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Germany â J58_J60 0 .2 .4 .6 Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Germany â J61 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Germany â J62_J63 â.25 â.2 â.15 â.1 â.05 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Germany â M_N â.2 â.15 â.1 â.05 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Germany â R â.08 â.06 â.04 â.02 0 .02 Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Germany â S Figure A.13: Industry-level TFP growth, Spain, manufacturing â.04 â.02 0 .02 .04 Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Spain â C10_C12 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Spain â C13_C15 â.04 â.03 â.02 â.01 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Italy â C29_C30 â.04 â.03 â.02 â.01 0 .01 Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Italy â C31_C33 Figure A.18: Industry-level TFP growth, Italy, non-manufacturing â.3 â.2 â.1 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Italy â D â.25 â.2 â.15 â.1 â.05 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Italy â E â.15 â.1 â.05 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Italy â M_N â.1 â.05 0 .05 Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Italy â R â.3 â.2 â.1 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Spain â F â.06 â.04 â.02 0 .02 .04 Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Spain â G â.2 â.15 â.1 â.05 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Spain â H â.4 â.3 â.2 â.1 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Spain â I â.4 â.3 â.2 â.1 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Spain â J58_J60 â.2 â.1 0 .1 .2 .3 Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Spain â J61 â.05 0 .05 .1 .15 Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Spain â J62_J63 â.25 â.2 â.15 â.1 â.05 0
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- Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Spain â M_N 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 Cumulated Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Year Solow BFK Our series Spain â R â.2 â.15 â.1 â.05 0
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DE LOECKER, J., EECKHOUT, J. and UNGER, G. (2020). The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications. The Quarterly Journal of Economics.
- Eurostatâs quarterly national accounts database. Investment data is available from the first quarter of 1998. We combine this data with the 1998 value of the real capital stock in EU KLEMS and the implicit KLEMS depreciation rate to compute a value for the capital stock using the perpetual inventory method.70 We compute growth in capital inputs as the growth in this capital stock. This differs from KLEMS, which computes a weighted average of the growth rates of different capital asset stocks. However, there is not enough disaggregated data on investment in different asset classes in order to do the same at a quarterly frequency.
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- FERNALD, J. G. (2014a). A quarterly, utilization-adjusted series on Total Factor Productivity.
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- FIELD, A. J. (2012). A Great Leap Forward: 1930s Depression and U.S. Economic Growth. Yale University Press.
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- Figure A.1: The impact of adjustment costs on estimated TFP growth â.1 0 .1 .2 Cumulated Growth (log changes) 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 Year Adjustment costs Baseline series United States 0 .05 .1 .15 Cumulated Growth (log changes) 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Year Adjustment costs Baseline series Germany â.08 â.06 â.04 â.02 0
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- GARCÃA-SANTANA, M., MORAL-BENITO, E., PIJOAN-MAS, J. and RAMOS, R. (2020). Growing like Spain: 1995-2007. International Economic Review, 61 (1), 383â416.
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- GAYER, C. (2013). New question on capacity utilization in the services sector - state of play and analysis of results from July 2011 to October 2013. mimeo.
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GILCHRIST, S. and ZAKRAJÅ EK, E. (2012). Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations.
GORDON, R. J. (2016). The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War. Princeton University Press.
- GUTIERREZ, G. (2018). Investigating Global Labor and Profit Shares. 2018 Meeting Papers 165, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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HALL, R. E. (2004). Measuring Factor Adjustment Costs. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119 (3), 899â927.
HULTEN, C. R. (1978). Growth Accounting with Intermediate Inputs. The Review of Economic Studies, 45 (3), 511â518.
HUO, Z., LEVCHENKO, A. A. and PANDALAI-NAYAR, N. (2020). Utilization-Adjusted TFP Across Countries: Measurement and Implications for International Comovement. Working Paper 26803, National Bureau of Economic Research.
IMBS, J. M. (1999). Technology, Growth and the Business Cycle. Journal of Monetary Economics, 44 (1), 65 â 80.
- In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, NBER.
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- In order to obtain an annual series, we take a simple average of monthly values. In Europe, the index is available since 1987 for France, 1993 for Germany, 1997 for Italy and the United Kingdom, and 2001 for Spain. If there is no available data for a country during a given period, we use the change in the European EPU series (which is the simple average of the series for the five European countries considered in our analysis). 64For all cited papers, the authors provide this data in their replication files. Updated files are available at https://marekjarocinski.github.io/ and https://sites.google.com/site/ambropo/ publications. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi also kindly shared an extended series (covering a longer time period) with us.
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INKLAAR, R. (2007). Cyclical Productivity in Europe and the United States: Evaluating the Evidence on Returns to Scale and Input Utilization. Economica, 74 (296), 822â841.
- JÃGER, K. (2018). EU KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts 2017 release - Description of Methodology and General Notes. Tech. rep., The Conference Board.
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JAROCINÌSKI, M. and KARADI, P. (2020). Deconstructing monetary policy surprisesâthe role of information shocks. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12 (2), 1â43.
- JORGENSON, D. W., GOLLOP, F. M. and FRAUMENI, B. M. (1987). Productivity and U.S. Economic Growth. Harvard University Press.
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KARABARBOUNIS, L. and NEIMAN, B. (2019). Accounting for Factorless Income. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 33, 167â228.
- Labour input Our measure of labour input accounts for labour composition, in the spirit of the EU KLEMS LAB_QI variable. Precisely, we use data on six different groups of workers, splitting the population of workers by gender and three age groups. For each of these groups, the EU Labour Force Survey provides quarterly data for employment and actual hours worked per week. Data is available from the first quarter of 1998 for Italy and Spain, from the first quarter of 2003 for France, and from the first quarter of 2005 for Germany. These series are not seasonally adjusted, but display strong seasonal patterns.
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MEIER, M. and REINELT, T. (2020). Monetary Policy,Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP. Discussion paper series, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
OâMAHONY, M. and TIMMER, M. P. (2009). Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database. Economic Journal, 119 (538), F374âF403.
- Output We measure output growth as the growth of quarterly real GDP, taken from Eurostatâs quarterly national accounts database. The data is seasonally adjusted and expressed in chain-linked volumes. It is available from the first quarter of 1997.
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- PIERCE, J. and WISNIEWSKI, E. (2018). Some Characteristics of the Decline in Manufacturing Capacity Utilization. FEDS Notes, p. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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PITON, S. (2021). Economic integration and unit labour costs. European Economic Review, 136, 103746.
PLANAS, C., ROEGER, W. and ROSSI, A. (2013). The Information Content of Capacity Utilization for Detrending Total Factor Productivity. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37 (3), 577 â 590.
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RAMEY, V. and SHAPIRO, M. (2001). Displaced Capital: A Study of Aerospace Plant Closings. Journal of Political Economy, 109 (5), 958â992.
- ROTEMBERG, J. J. and WOODFORD, M. (1995). Dynamic General Equilibrium Models with Imperfectly Competitive Product Markets, Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 243â 293.
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- RUZIC, D. and HO, S.-J. (2021). Returns to Scale, Productivity Measurement, and Trends in U.S. Manufacturing Misallocation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, pp. 1â47.
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SANDERSON, E. and WINDMEIJER, F. (2016). A weak instrument F-test in linear IV models with multiple endogenous variables. Journal of Econometrics, 190 (2), 212 â 221, endogeneity Problems in Econometrics.
SCHIVARDI, F. and SCHMITZ, T. (2020). The IT Revolution and Southern Europeâs Two Lost Decades. Journal of the European Economic Association, 18 (5), 2441â2486.
SHAPIRO, M. D. (1989). Assessing the Federal Reserveâs Measures of Capacity and Utilization. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 20 (1), 181â242.
- SOLOW, R. M. (1957). Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39 (3), 312â320.
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- Table A.14: TFP growth rates, Italy Solow residual BFK method Our method 1996-0.23-0.77 0.60 1997 0.37 1.38 0.29 1998-0.85-2.18-1.61 1999-0.93-1.11-0.61 2000 2.29 3.42 1.50 2001-0.40-0.65-0.10 2002-2.09-2.67-1.16 2003-1.71-0.84-1.86 2004 0.92 0.26 0.93 2005-0.11 0.56 0.12 2006 0.05-0.41-0.85 2007 0.02-1.38-0.32 2008-1.43-0.92-0.11 2009-5.86-2.14-1.03 2010 2.81-0.15 0.91 2011 0.20-2.13-1.21 2012-1.81 0.79-0.17 2013 0.03 0.63-0.31 2014 0.18-0.07-0.65 2015 0.26-0.32-0.86 2016 0.77 0.47 0.45 2017 0.91 1.04 0.20 Notes: TFP growth rates are expressed as log changes multiplied by 100.
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- The EU LFS does not contain information on wages. Thus, to compute the relative wage bill of both types of workers, we use data from the European Structure of Earnings survey (EU SES), provided by Eurostat in 4-year intervals between 2002 and 2014. We approximate the relative hourly wage of quasi-fixed workers with respect to variable workers with the 55See https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/microdata/european-union-labour-force-survey for further details on the survey and data access. 56The LFS only provides information at the NACE 1-digit level. Thus, we need to assign the same employment and hours split to all industries belonging to a 1-digit NACE group. ratio of regular hourly earnings of workers with permanent contracts to the regular hourly earnings of workers with temporary contracts. For all missing years, we linearly interpolate the series.
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- The largest changes can be observed in the case of Spain. This is due to the fact that Spain experienced a severe recession between 2008 and 2013, causing profit shares to fall substantially below their long-run values (see Figure 5 in the main text). Accordingly, cost shares shifted considerably during these years, resulting in large changes in measured TFP.
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- Therefore, we seasonally adjust each employment and hours per worker series by using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS algorithm. We then construct quarterly data between 1998 and 2003 for France and between 1998 and 2005 for Germany by linear interpolation of the available annual data.69 Finally, we construct an aggregate measure of labour input as dHt + dNt = 6 â d=1 wd t dHd t + dNd t
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- They also matter for TFP growth, as they create a wedge between the effective and the measured growth rate of capital and labour inputs. To measure these wedges, we estimate the parameters aΦ and aΨ following a method introduced by Hall (2004).
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- To the extend that changes in Spanish cost shares during 2008-2013 reflected a cyclical phenomenon rather than a change in production technology, our baseline series appears to be more reliable than the series with time-varying elasticities.51 51In general, note that our focus on a BGP in the main text does not necessarily contradict the evolution of profit shares within countries. Indeed, even in the United States, where estimated profits increased over the last 20 to 30 years, Karabarbounis and Neiman (2019) have argued that profits are currently at the same level than in the 1960s. Thus, the data is consistent with low-frequency fluctuations around a stable long-run average.
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- TRESSEL, T. and DE ALMEIDA, L. A. (2020). Non-Financial Corporate Debt in Advanced Economies, 2010â17. IMF Working Papers 2020/120, International Monetary Fund.
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- Uncertainty shocks Our measure of Economic Policy Uncertainy (EPU) was developed by Baker et al. (2016), and is regularly updated at http://www.policyuncertainty.
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- We focus on the period since 1972, as disaggregated capacity utilization data starts to be available in this year.
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- Working Paper Series 2012-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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