Winter Solistice

 
Today is the astronomical Winter Solistice, which brings us the shortest day of the year. Fair and mild conditions continue here, with no sign of winter-like weather on the horizon.

Looking Toward Christmas

View of the Rincons a bit before before 7:00 am MST, showing perfectly clear skiews - our mild and very dry weather continues.

GFS forecast from 06 UTC this morning (above - valid at 11 pm Christmas evening) shows a small, closed-low crossing the Four Corners Region, with trough extending south across the Tucson area. However, forecast of 24-hour precipitation from the same model run (below) indicates only light amounts over the northern portion of the state. Big question becomes: Will we have any precipitation here during December?

Quick Overview

View of the Catalinas at 7:30 am MST this morning (above) shows our heavily overcast skies on a fairly dreary start to the day.

IR satellite image (above for 1420 UTC) showswidespread cloudiness over the Southwest. However, the 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast of OLR (below valid at noon today) shows the cloudiness moving east of the Tucson area.

The long term GFS forecast (below - valid through 28 December) for total precipitation through December 28th shows dry conditions persisting over a large areaof the Southwest and northern Mexico.

Dry Fall Here

Perfectly clear skies over the Catalinas a 8:00 am MST this morning. Image at bottom, in stark contrast, shows conditions during NFL football game at Buffalo last evening.

Precipitation here for the Fall (Sep. Oct. and Nov) was only 0.37 - 0.04" in Sep and 0.33" inches in Nov, with measureable rainfall on only three days. Conditions were drier during the Fall only in 2017 (0.17") and 2020 (0.15").

Plumes for PW from 06 UTC GEFS runs (above) show dry conditions, becoming even drier during coming week.

This morning's forecast for the airport from the NWS Tucson Forecast Office (above) indicates mild and dry condtions for the coming week. The December outlook from the NWS CPC (below) indicates more of the same  for the rest of the year.

Holiday Forecast

Contrails over the Catalinas at 8:25 am MST this morning.

GEFS plumes for QPF from 06 UTC runs this morning (above), showing essentially flat-line conditions into early December. Plumes for T (below) indicate that Thanksgiving will be coolest day for coming week.

Morning forecast from NWS (above) calls for mild and dry conditions through the Holiday. While 06 UTC GFS run (below) forecasts almost no precipitation for Arizona through the end of the month.

Quick Update

View of the Rincons (above) from just before 7:00 am MST this morning. Dry and mild weather continues here in Tucson area. However, the NWS is forecasting a 20 percent chance of showers at the airport today - current am forecast below.

The 15 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast from Atmo (above) indicates dry conditions across Tucson metro area through noon tomorrow. GFS long-range forecast (from 12 UTC this morning - below) keeps southeast Arizona dry through the end of the month.

Chilly Morning

View of clear skies and the Catalinas from campus at 7:15 am MST this morning.

Temperatures at 7:00 am this morning were quite chilly across the main metro area (above), with some spots dropping a bit below freezing. Temperature here at the house fell to 33 F - coldest morning in many months.

However, the extended forecast for the airport (below) indicates high temperatures back into the low 80s by next Sunday and Monday. The GFS forecast of precipitation through 18 UTC next Saturday the 16th (bottom) indicates  no precipitation over most of the Southwest and much of Mexico.