It begins: the pre-chase forecasting

I won't go into as much detail as I have in previous years, but suffice to say that I've been looking at the models and how they've been trending and they're looking a) quite good for our chase, with abundant moisture and shear likely in place for at least a few of the days, and b) different every run with respect to the details.

If you really want to see what model spread looks like, I would say have a look at the 500 mb spaghetti plot from the GEFS (a GFS ensemble), and by usually about day 6 (144 hours), it really does look like spaghetti. (Time-sensitive link).

But here goes.  I'll give the most ideal location(s) where chasing would be good based on that day, given the model stated is right at that time.  I'll start on June 17 and go to June 27, although we definitely won't be chasing during the entire window.

June 17 (144)
GFS: Southern OK (we ain't getting there)
GFSFV3: N TX to SW KS
GDPS: SD

June 18 (168)
GFS: Eastern Dakotas or OK/KS
GFSFV3: OK/KS

GDPS: ND/MN

June 19 (192)
GFS: NE, KS, OK
GFSFV3: NE/SD

GDPS: The Great Lakes somewhere?

June 20 (216)
GFS: IA/MN/WI
GFSFV3: SD/IA

GDPS: AB/SK marginal

June 21 (240)
GFS: Western Dakotas
GFSFV3: MN/WI

GDPS: IA

June 22 (264)
GFS: WI/NW ON
GFSFV3: OK or maybe MT

June 23 (288)
GFS: KS/NE
GFSFV3: NE

June 24 (312)
GFS: SD, NE, KS
GFSFV3: MT/SK or NE

June 25 (336)
GFS: WI
GFSFV3: ND/MB

June 26 (360)
GFS: KS or western MT
GFSFV3: NE/SD

June 27 (384)
GFS: Southern SK
GFSFV3: KS/MO

So as you can see, it's certainly not a done deal as to where we'll be or even when we'll be leaving.

I'll post updates over the next week here.