Most of the Northwest has experienced below-normal precipitation this year, but half a month is left.
Can we catch up? As the insightful Yogi Berra said famously: "The game ain't over till it's over"
Consider the accumulated rainfall (green) over Seattle compared to normal (brown) for 2024, shown below.
Seattle is down about 8 inches (normal is about 37 inches).
Looking at the whole region, the difference from normal for precipitation from January 1 to December 5 is quite varied. Northern California and southwest Oregon have been considerably wetter than normal. Oregon as a whole is a wash. But Washington has been drier than normal, particularly the western side of the Cascades.
So the question you are all wondering: will we catch up? Or was Yogi Berra right?
The answer: we may make up a significant portion of this deficit during the next two weeks.
Why? Because the large-scale atmosphere will be locked into a favorable upper-level pattern, with a deep upper-level low over the Aleutians, resulting in a moist southwesterly flow over the Northwest (see upper-level, 500hPa heights (solid lines), with the difference from normal shown by shading).
Consider the predicted precipitation accumulation through the end of the month by two major global prediction systems.
The European Center model predicts very wet conditions, and particularly moist over the western portion of our region. Purples are around 18 inches!
The American model, the GFS, is similarly wet. We might not catch up to normal, but we would get within striking distance.
Want more good news? No major cyclones are predicted to reach our region during the next week.
KSHN reports being about 10" behind for the calendar year (52" vs. 62" normal). With this week's forecast precipitation (2.75" just today), near-normal conditions should prevail.
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised Cliff hasn't commented on the storm passing through the Puget Sound tonight and early tomorrow morning. Major weather channels are now predicting damaging winds tonight together with very heavy rain. How bad will this be?
ReplyDeleteyes...it will get windy tonight.....not a major event. Strong front moving through. A limit to how many blogs I can do! I do have a day job..
DeleteThanks, Cliff. I appreciate your updates.
DeleteI'm wondering if the official rain gauge for the Seattle area accurately represents the region. My rain gauge at Martha Lake in Lynnwood shows almost twice the rainfall as the official record at SeaTac for this month to date. We question the temperature reading due to the siting of this official station. Could the precipitation readings also be compromised due to the location?
ReplyDeleteI assume the precip maps are for "water equivalent" – the Ellensburg area and south to the Columbia River is getting snow. Traffic cams in the passes all show snow.
ReplyDeleteCliff - I've been trying to forecast the "real" height of king tides where I live on Quartermaster Harbor on Vashon. I use Windy (average of models) to forecast atmospheric pressure but today's tide seemed far higher than my model would suggest. How would you go about forecasting the tidal impact of the ~1 inch of rain we had in the preceding 24 hours on the actual tide?
ReplyDelete