2009 Romanian presidential election

Romanian presidential election

22 November 2009 6 December 2009

File:TraianBasescu.jpg File:Crin Antonescu2.jpg Nominee Traian Băsescu Mircea Geoană Crin Antonescu Party Traian Băsescu PSD PNL   File:Vadim8.jpg Nominee Corneliu Vadim Tudor Hunor Kelemen Sorin Oprescu Party PRM Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania List of political parties in Romania

The results of the first voting round by county and in the Bucharest municipality

Incumbent President Traian Băsescu

The first round of 2009 Romanian presidential elections was held in Romania on 22 November and a run-off is scheduled for 6 December 2009. The exit polls indicate that Traian Băsescu and Mircea Geoană will go a second round. Also on 22 November a referendum was held on introducing a unicameral Parliament of up to 300 deputies instead of the current bicameral Parliament. The referendum was declared valid after 50,16% of the registered voters expressed their opinion, and exit polls indicate over 70% support for the reforms.

Candidates

There are 12 candidates of which 3 run as independents. The candidates of the major parties are: the incumbent Traian Băsescu (formally independent, but supported by PD-L), Mircea Geoană (PSD), Crin Antonescu (PNL), Hunor Kelemen (UDMR) and Corneliu Vadim Tudor (PRM). Mayor of Bucharest Sorin Oprescu (formerly PSD member) announced his candidacy as an independent candidate on 5 October 2009; Băsescu also had been mayor of Bucharest before becoming president.

Radu, Prince of Hohenzollern-Veringen, husband of Princess Margarita of Romania first announced his candidacy to the office of President on 9 April 2009., but later withdrew.

Campagin

Voter turnout - First round

Băsescu ran for a second term in the 2009 presidential elections. Incumbent Băsescu and his Social-Democrat opponent Mircea Geoană offered different ways to tackle the economic crisis, Romania being in the grip of severe recession with the economy expected to contract eight percent in 2009. While Geoană offered to increase investment to beat the recession and promised left-wing "vigorous measures" such as building affordable flats for young people and giving cheap credits to enterprises in order to help create jobs, Băsescu pledged to cut public spending, more in line with a center-right vision. Băsescu also promised more equity to people living in the countryside. Christian Mititelu, a political commentator quoted by the BBC, argued that due to extremely vigorous political strife there was no real campaign debate about how the economy should recover or on the structure of the next year's budget, and that the public were not sufficiently aware of these economic issues, while the contenders did not attempt to communicate and involve the public in such decisions.

Băsescu tried to portray himself as the champion of the people against what he called the corrupt political elite. A widely-used election poster carried the text: "They cannot avoid what they are afraid of". Băsescu's opponents countered that he is part of that elite, simply with different backers. In a Cluj-Napoca meeting with supporters he claimed he "was the one to stop doubtful privatisations" said Băsescu, implicitly accusing rival Social-Democrats of underhand practices while in power for most of the 20 years since the fall of the communist regime in 1989. He vowed to fight against the Parliament, which blocked his bid to install the Croitoru cabinet, and the "media moguls". In the campaign for the first round, his favorite campaign theme was reducing the number of lawmakers. This theme proved popular with the overwhelming majority of the electorate voting for the reduction of the number of lawmakers from current 471 to a maximum of 300, and in favor of a transition from the current bicameral Parliament to an a unicameral one in a referendum held simultaneously with the first round of elections. "I will not abandon the fight against parliament and the media moguls." Basescu told thousands of supporters gathered in Cluj a week before the second round. Băsescu has repeatedly named the "moguls" as businessmen Dan Voiculescu, Sorin Ovidiu Vîntu, and Dinu Patriciu, and politicians Ion Iliescu, Viorel Hrebenciuc, and Marian Vanghelie. The counter-candidate Geoană, on the other hand, described himself as a "man of dialogue", who can "restore Romania's unity", allegedly "jeopardized" by Basescu. A former ambassador to the United States, former foreign minister, and a seasoned diplomat, Geoană edged aside more powerful figures in his Social Democratic party.

In the first round held on November 22, Băsescu came first with 32.44% of the votes, and Geoană second with 31.15%. According to a BBC article that received large media attention:

If Geoană wins the run-off on December 6, it will be because Traian Băsescu has made too many enemies, especially in the pro-Socialist part of the media, which attacks him from morning to night. If Geoană loses, it will be because he lacks Băsescu's "human touch", and because doubts remain over his ability to control the "red barons" in his own party. Crin Antonescu [of the National Liberals who scored third with 20.02%] was the first choice of all those who are fed up with Băsescu but could not bring themselves to vote Socialist. His voters hold the key to victory on 6 December. They appear reluctant to hand it to either Băsescu or Geoană.

Although Băsescu claimed the results of the first round were "a significant vote for the right" because he and Crin Antonescu together received over 50% of the vote, the next day Antonescu refused to back Băsescu in the runoff, and shortly thereafter announced an alliance with Geoană. Subsequently Băsescu reproached Antonescu to "have thrown himself in the arms of the Social-Democrat party, a party opposed to reforms", and added "This alliance will bring us back to 20 years ago when the PSD was controlling all state institutions". Antonescu in turn called Băsescu "a demagogue and a populist", and vowed to support Geoană as "the lesser of two evils".

On November 26, 2009 footage from the 2004 election campaign showing Băsescu apparently hitting or pushing a 10-year old boy at a campaign rally was broadcast. The press unfavourable to Băsescu interpreted the footage as "hitting with his fist", whereas the press favorable to Băsescu either interpreted it as a push, or called the footage fake. Asked in a talk show about the incident, the President stated that he does not recall it, but did not outright deny it either, saying that perhaps the child uttered profanity. Later he made a public declaration that "never in his life has he hit a child", but he refused to comment on whether the footage was video manipulated or not. PDL member Roberta Anastase, who had accompanied Băsescu during the rally, declared the child uttered profanity and that Băsescu pushed the child aside. The footage was released within 24 hours of a declaration of Dinu Patriciu, also present at the rally, who claimed that he saw Băsescu hitting a child in 2004. The boy has been identified, and was interviewed later in the night. He acknowledged that Băsescu had hit him after he chanted a slogan favourable to Ion Iliescu and Adrian Năstase, but said he was not physically hurt. He also said that on the moment he was happy that Basescu had paid attention to him, and they smiled at each other, but later he felt disappointed. He added "it was a hit as if he wanted to say: go away!" On November 27, Băsescu told a Mediafax journalist that he saw the footage "de-mounted on computer", suggesting it was manipulated. Cecilia Gheorghe, the boy's aunt, declared that the child now refuses to give further details because he is now "afraid for his life and that of his mother". Asked life by Realitatea TV, the news TV station that first aired th footage, the boy, now 15, has declared:

Template:Ro Vreau ca aceste imagini să înceteze. Vreau să nu mai fiu implicat în toată această poveste. Nu este nimic adevărat din ceea ce spuneţi. Nu mă interesează ce spune mătuşa mea. Mama mea este bolnavă, eu am făcut un atac de panică. Retrag toate afirmaţiile pe care le-am făcut aseară. Vreau ca povestea aceasta să înceteze!
I want these images to stop. I want not to be implicated in all this story. There is nothing true in what you are saying. I am not interested what my aunt says. My mother is seek, I had a panic attack. I am withdrawing all statements I made last night. I want that this story would stop!

Second round

After the first round, Crin Antonescu with his PNL, Béla Markó with his UDMR and George Becali with his PNG decided to support Mircea Geoană -candidate of the Social Democratic Party + Conservative Party Alliance- on the second round. Sorin Oprescu decided not to support anyone and Corneliu Vadim Tudor with his PRM -at national level- called his voters to boycot the runoff round, however the PRM in the Sibiu county decided to support Geoană.

Opinion polls

Note: Opinion polls have been criticised in this election for their unreliability, with large differences in results obtained between different polling agencies.

First round

Polling Firm	Date	Source	Băsescu	Geoană	Antonescu	Oprescu	Tudor	Kelemen	Others	Undecided
GSS	16/05/2009	[6]	30.8%	24.3%	20.3%		5.5%	N/A	7.8%	5%
CURS	26/06/2009	[7]	36%	24%	20%		11%	2%	3%	N/A
INSOMAR	12/07/09	[8]	35.7%	29.6%	16.8%		11.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Gallup Romania	16-20/07/09	[9]	35%	18%	20%		10%	3%	N/A	N/A
CCSB	17-19/09/2009	[10]	34%	18%	19%	12%	7%	1%	N/A	N/A
INSOMAR	8-11/10/09	[11]	33.4%	28.5%	14.5%	8.1%	6.1%	4.3%	N/A	N/A
CSOP	16-18/10/09	[12]	35%	24%	19%	8%	4%	4%	N/A	N/A
CURS	15-22/10/09	[13]	31%	30%	17%	9%	5%	4%	4%	N/A
BCS	19/10/09	[14]	31.3%	21.9%	23.8%	10.4%	3.7%	3.8%	5.1%	N/A
Operations Research	20-23/10/09	[15]	31%	21%	22%	12%	6%	2%	6%
INSOMAR	29/10-1/11 /09	[16]	30%	32%	19%	6%	7%	3%	5.1%	N/A
Gallup Romania	01-03/11/09	[17]	32.5%	21.5%	21.5%	11%	5%	2.5%	N/A
CCSB	03/11/09	[18]	34%	30%	18%	14%	3%	1%	1%
INSOMAR	09/11/09	[19]	31%	32%	18%	5%	6%	5%	N/A
CCSB	11/11/09	[20]	34%	31%	16%	10%	4%	3%	2%
Operations Research	15/11/09	[21]	30%	23%	26%	8%	6%	4%	3%
CSOP	18/11/09	[22]	37%	27%	20%	6%	3%	5%	2%
Operations Research	19/11/09	[23]	32,5%	23,5%	24,5%	7%	6%	4%	2,5%

Exit-polls

Polling Firm	Source	Băsescu	Geoană	Antonescu	Tudor	Kelemen	Oprescu	Others
CSOP	Gandul	33.2%	30.3%	22%		4.9%
CURS	TVR	33.72%	31.44%	21.53%	4.22%	3.26%	3.18%	'
INSOMAR	Realitatea TV	32.8%	31.7%	21.8%	4%	3.6%	3.5%	'
CCSB	Antena 3	34.1%	30.9%	22.1%	3.6%	3.6%	3.4%	'

Second round

Băsescu vs Geoană

Polling Firm	Date	Source	Băsescu	Geoană
INCOR	28/06/2009	[24]	52%	48%
CCSB	27/07/2009	[25]	53%	47%
CCSB	03/10/09	[26]	47%	53%
CSOP	07/10/09	[27]	53%	47%
INSOMAR	8-11/10/09	[28]	49.4%	50.6%
CURS	26/10/2009	[29]	50%	50%
INSOMAR	29/10-1/11 /09	[30]	47%	53%
CCSB	3/11/09	[31]	46%	54%
INSOMAR	6-9/11 /09	[32]	47%	53%

Băsescu vs Antonescu

Polling Firm	Date	Source	Băsescu	Antonescu
INCOR	28/06/2009	[33]	53%	47%
CCSB	27/07/2009	[34]	55%	45%
CCSB	03/10/09	[35]	46%	54%
CSOP	07/10/09	[36]	57%	43%
CURS	26/10/2009	[37]	49%	51%
Gallup Romania	03/11/2009	[38]	46%	54%
CCSB	3/11/09	[39]	49%	51%
INSOMAR	6-9/11/09	[40]	47%	53%

References

• BEC-AEP document

Further reading

• Romania's president, rival in runoff election
• Alliance battle starts as Romania heads for presidential run-off
• Romania election's strange enigma
• Romanian Voters Head For Round Two, New Coalition Likely