2024 United States presidential election in Michigan
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| Elections in Michigan |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Michigan is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Michigan voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1] Michigan is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.[2]
An Upper Midwestern state in the Rust Belt, no Republican presidential candidate has won Michigan with a majority since George H. W. Bush in 1988, and the last Republican to win by double digits was Ronald Reagan in his 49-state landslide four years earlier. The state was formerly part of the Blue Wall, having voted Democratic in every presidential election between 1992 and 2012, but only doing so by a double-digit margin in 1996 and 2008. Then, in 2016, Republican Donald Trump carried Michigan by a very narrow 0.23% in an unexpected sweep of the Midwest and Rust Belt which earned him a presidential victory, only to have the state flipped back into the Democratic column by Joe Biden four years later with a 2.78% margin of victory as the former lost the presidency to the latter. However, it was the worst margin for a victorious Democrat dating back to the 2.01% margin of victory for John F. Kennedy in the state in the extremely close 1960 election. One key issue for the Democratic nominee is winning over the traditionally Democratic Arab-American voting bloc, with polls indicating that they may be alienated by the Democrats due to their pro-Israel policy.[3]
Michigan is purple to slightly blue, with Democrats holding all statewide offices since 2019. Due to the state's nearly even partisan lean and the close margin by which it was decided in 2016 and 2020, this race is considered to be a tossup.
On April 18, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was nominated by Michigan's Natural Law Party.[4] Despite suspending his campaign on August 23 and legal attempts to withdraw himself, the Michigan Supreme Court ruled that his name will remain on the ballot.[5][6][7] Jill Stein from the Green Party has ballot access.[8][9]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Michigan Democratic primary was held on February 27, 2024, as one of the earliest races of the larger Democratic primaries. Incumbent president Joe Biden won in a landslide, although he would lose 2 delegates and over 100,000 votes to the uncommitted option, which was fueled by pro-Palestine protest votes opposing Biden's campaign due to his handling of the Israel–Hamas war.[10]
Biden
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 625,221 | 81.1% | 115 | 115 | |
| Uncommitted | 101,623 | 13.2% | 2 | 2 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 22,865 | 3.0% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 20,684 | 2.7% | |||
| Write-in votes | 178 | <0.1% | |||
| Total: | 770,571 | 100% | 117 | 23 | 140 |
Republican primary
[edit]Following a schism in the state Republican Party, Michigan held two Republican nominating contests. The primary was held on February 27, 2024, and awarded a small amount of delegates to former president Donald Trump, who won in a landslide, and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley. The party later held a caucus on March 2, in which Trump won the remainder of delegates.[10]
Trump
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 761,163 | 68.12% | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| Nikki Haley | 297,124 | 26.59% | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Uncommitted | 33,649 | 3.01% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 13,456 | 1.20% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 4,794 | 0.43% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 3,702 | 0.33% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley | 2,348 | 0.21% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 1,077 | 0.10% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 1,117,313 | 100.00% | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 1,575 | 97.77% | 39 | 0 | 39 |
| Nikki Haley | 36 | 2.23% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 1,611 | 100.00% | 39 | 0 | 39 |
| Source: [15] | |||||
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]The following candidates have qualified for the general election ballot:[16]
- Kamala Harris — Democratic
- Donald Trump — Republican
- Chase Oliver — Libertarian
- Randall Terry — US Taxpayers
- Jill Stein — Green
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — Natural Law[a]
- Joseph Kishore — Independent (Socialist Equality Party nominee)
- Cornel West — Independent
Additionally, voters have the option to write-in candidates who file a letter of intent by October 25.[17]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[18] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Tossup | August 20, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[20] | Tossup | September 10, 2024 |
| CNN[21] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| The Economist[22] | Tossup | September 19, 2024 |
| 538[23] | Tossup | October 2, 2024 |
| CNalysis[24] | Tossup | October 7, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[25] | Tossup | August 29, 2024 |
| NBC News[26] | Tossup | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | October 23 – 31, 2024 | October 31, 2024 | 48.4% | 46.9% | 4.7% | Harris +1.5% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through October 31, 2024 | October 31, 2024 | 48.6% | 48.2% | 3.2% | Harris +0.4% |
| Silver Bulletin | through October 31, 2024 | October 31, 2024 | 48.3% | 47.3% | 4.4% | Harris +1.0% |
| 538 | through October 31, 2024 | October 31, 2024 | 47.8% | 47.0% | 5.2% | Harris +0.8% |
| Average | 48.3% | 47.4% | 4.3% | Harris +0.9% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[27] | October 30–31, 2024 | 1,136 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48,7% | 49,3% | 2% |
| Marist College[28] | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,356 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 48% | 1%[d] |
| 1,214 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 48% | 1%[d] | ||
| Echelon Insights[29] | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Mitchell Research[30][A] | October 28–29, 2024 | – (LV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| AtlasIntel[31] | October 25–29, 2024 | 938 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[32][B] | October 26–28, 2024 | 844 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| The Washington Post[33] | October 24–28, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 1,003 (LV) | 47% | 46% | 7% | |||
| Fox News[34] | October 24–28, 2024 | 1,275 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| 988 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% | ||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[35] | October 26–27, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 48% | 5%[e] |
| Emerson College[36][C] | October 25–27, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[f] |
| 49% | 50%[g] | 1%[f] | ||||
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[37] | October 23–27, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 47% | 1% |
| Patriot Polling[38] | October 24–26, 2024 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| CES/YouGov[39] | October 1–25, 2024 | 2,347 (A) | – | 52% | 45% | 3% |
| 2,336 (LV) | 51% | 46% | 3% | |||
| Quinnipiac University[40] | October 17–21, 2024 | 1,136 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[41] | October 18−20, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 46% | 10%[h] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[42] | October 16–20, 2024 | 756 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| 705 (LV) | 50% | 46% | 4% | |||
| The Bullfinch Group[43] | October 11−18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 45% | 2% |
| 51% | 43% | 6%[i] | ||||
| AtlasIntel[44] | October 12–17, 2024 | 1,529 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| RMG Research[45][D] | October 10–16, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 4%[j] |
| 49%[g] | 49% | 2% | ||||
| Morning Consult[46] | October 6−15, 2024 | 1,065 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Washington Post/Schar School[47] | September 30 – October 15, 2024 | 687 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| 687 (LV) | 49% | 47% | 4% | |||
| Mitchell Research[48][A] | October 14, 2024 | 589 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[49][E] | October 9–14, 2024 | 1,058 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[50][F] | October 10–13, 2024 | 692 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Michigan State University/YouGov[51] | September 23 – October 10, 2024 | 845 (LV) | – | 52% | 48% | – |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[52] | October 8–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 48% | 6%[k] |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[53][G] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[54][H] | October 2–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[l] |
| ActiVote[55] | September 15 – October 9, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 49% | – |
| Emerson College[56] | October 5–8, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 49% | 2%[f] |
| 50%[g] | 50% | – | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[57] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Research Co.[58] | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 44% | 10%[m] |
| 51%[g] | 48% | 1%[m] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[59] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,007 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 51% | 2% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[60][I] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Mitchell Research[61][A] | September 30, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[62] | September 28–30, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 47% | 9%[h] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[63][J] | September 23–29, 2024 | 404 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| RMG Research[64][D] | September 24–27, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 46% | 4%[n] |
| 50%[g] | 47% | 3% | ||||
| New York Times/Siena College[65] | September 21–26, 2024 | 688 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 688 (LV) | 48% | 47% | 5% | |||
| AtlasIntel[66] | September 20–25, 2024 | 918 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 51% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[67] | September 19–25, 2024 | 416 (LV) | – | 51% | 48% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[68] | September 19–25, 2024 | 894 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| 800 (LV) | 50% | 47% | 3% | |||
| Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies[69][K] | September 19–23, 2024 | 400 (LV) | – | 51% | 45% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[70][E] | September 19−22, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Emerson College[71] | September 15–18, 2024 | 875 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 47% | 4%[f] |
| 50%[g] | 49% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Morning Consult[46] | September 9−18, 2024 | 1,297 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 44% | 4% |
| Marist College[72] | September 12−17, 2024 | 1,282 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 47% | 3%[d] |
| 1,138 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 52% | 47% | 1%[d] | ||
| Quinnipiac University[73] | September 12–16, 2024 | 905 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 46% | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[74] | September 11–12, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 49% | 3%[l] |
| Mitchell Research[75][A] | September 11, 2024 | 580 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Morning Consult[46] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,368 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| co/efficient (R)[76] | September 4–6, 2024 | 931 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| CBS News/YouGov[77] | September 3–6, 2024 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 49% | 1% |
| Patriot Polling[78] | September 1–3, 2024 | 822 (RV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Cygnal (R)[79] | August 28 – September 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[80] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| Emerson College[81] | August 25–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 47% | 3%[o] |
| 51%[g] | 48% | 1%[p] | ||||
| ActiVote[82] | July 28 – August 28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 50% | – |
| EPIC-MRA[83] | August 23–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[84] | August 23–26, 2024 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| 702 (RV) | 49% | 46% | 5% | |||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| YouGov[85][L] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 44% | 12%[q] |
| – (LV) | ± 6.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% | ||
| TIPP Insights[86][M] | August 20–22, 2024 | 741 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[87][N] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[88][O] | August 13–19, 2024 | 1,093 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Focaldata[89] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 47% | – |
| The Bullfinch Group[90][P] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[91][H] | August 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[92] | August 6–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[93] | August 5–8, 2024 | 619 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| 619 (LV) | 50% | 46% | 5% | |||
| Navigator Research (D)[94] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[95] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 406 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | 6% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[96][Q] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[97] | July 24–28, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 42% | 4% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[98][R] | July 25–26, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Fox News[99] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Emerson College[100] | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| 49%[g] | 51% | – | ||||
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention concludes | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[101][S] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[102] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College[103] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 616 (LV) | 48% | 46% | 6% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[27] | October 30–31, 2024 | 1,136 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | – | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| AtlasIntel[31] | October 25–29, 2024 | 938 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | – | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[104] | October 25–27, 2024 | 728 (LV) | – | 49% | 48% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[105] | October 20–22, 2024 | 1,115 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University[40] | October 17–21, 2024 | 1,136 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3%[r] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[42] | October 16–20, 2024 | 756 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | – | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| 705 (LV) | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[106] | October 16–18, 2024 | 1,008 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[107] | October 12–14, 2024 | 682 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University[59] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,007 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 50% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1%[r] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[108] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 839 (LV) | – | 48% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[65] | September 21–26, 2024 | 688 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 46% | – | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| 688 (LV) | 46% | 46% | – | 2% | 1% | 5% | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[68] | September 19–25, 2024 | 894 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | – | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| 800 (LV) | 50% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% | |||
| Remington Research Group (R)[109][T] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | 0% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[110] | September 16–19, 2024 | 993 (LV) | – | 46% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[73] | September 12–16, 2024 | 905 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 45% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 3%[r] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[111] | September 6–9, 2024 | 556 (LV) | – | 48% | 45% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| YouGov[112][U] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 43% | 1% | 1% | – | 7%[l] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[113] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[84] | August 23–26, 2024 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| 702 (RV) | 48% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 3% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.[s] Natural Law |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [t] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH | through October 7, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 47.0% | 46.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | — | 2.7% | Harris +0.1% |
| 270toWin | October 7 – 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 47.0% | 46.6% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.0% | Harris +0.4% |
| Average | 46.9% | 46.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | Tie | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Natural Law |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights[29] | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 47% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Fox News[34] | October 24–28, 2024 | 1,275 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 988 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | ||
| CNN/SSRS[114] | October 23–28, 2024 | 726 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3% |
| Suffolk University/USA Today[115] | October 24–27, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3%[u] |
| Glengariff Group[116][V] | October 22–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | 4% | – | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[117] | October 16–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 45% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4%[u] |
| AtlasIntel[44] | October 12–17, 2024 | 1,529 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Mitchell Research[48][A] | October 14, 2024 | 589 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Marketing Resource Group[118] | October 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | 3% | – | 2% | – | 6%[v] |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[54][H] | October 2–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| Wall Street Journal[57] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Glengariff Group[119][V] | October 1–4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Mitchell Research[61][A] | September 30, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 47% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2%[u] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[63][J] | September 23–29, 2024 | 404 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 48% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel[66] | September 20–25, 2024 | 918 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 0% | – | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[67] | September 19–25, 2024 | 416 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | 0% | 1% | 2% | – | 2% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[120] | September 11–19, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 43% | 2% | – | 2% | 2% | 3%[w] |
| Suffolk University/USA Today[121] | September 16–18, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 45% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6%[u] |
| Mitchell Research[75][A] | September 11, 2024 | 580 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 2% | 0% | 1% | – | 4%[u] |
| CNN/SSRS[122] | August 23–29, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 43% | 4% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Z to A Research (D)[123][W] | August 23–26, 2024 | 518 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | 3% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| YouGov[85][L] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 7%[x] |
| – (LV) | ± 6.0% | 47% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | ||
| TIPP Insights[86][M] | August 20–22, 2024 | 741 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 1% | – | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[88][O] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,093 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 4% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Focaldata[89] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 44% | 4% | – | 1% | 0% | – |
| 702 (RV) | 50% | 44% | 4% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% | |||
| 702 (A) | 50% | 42% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124] | August 12–15, 2024 | 530 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% |
| The Bullfinch Group[90][P] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 1% | – | 5% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[91][H] | August 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[93] | August 5–8, 2024 | 619 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 6% |
| 619 (LV) | 48% | 43% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% | |||
| Navigator Research (D)[94] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[95] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 406 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[125] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 771 (LV) | – | 41% | 42% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[97] | July 24–28, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | 5% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Fox News[99] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[126] | July 22–24, 2024 | 512 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | 7% | – | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| Glengariff Group[127][V] | July 22–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 41% | 10% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Emerson College[100] | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 5% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glengariff Group[128][V] | August 26–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 5% |
| EPIC-MRA[83] | August 23–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[129][X] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 7% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[87][N] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 43% | 5% | 8% |
| Civiqs[130][W] | July 13–16, 2024 | 532 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 46% | 46% | 5% | 3% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[129][X] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| EPIC-MRA[131][Y] | July 13–17, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| Emerson College[132][Z] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Marketing Resource Group[133] | July 11–13, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 39% | 25%[y] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[101][S] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[134][AA] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[135][AB] | July 1–8, 2024 | 607 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[136] | July 1–5, 2024 | 694 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Emerson College[137][Z] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 12% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[138] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| EPIC-MRA[139][Y] | June 21–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Emerson College[140] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| 49%[g] | 51% | – | ||||
| Mitchell Research[141][A] | June 3, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[142] | May 30–31, 2024 | 723 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| 636 (LV) | 47% | 46% | 7% | |||
| Mitchell Research[143][A] | May 20–21, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| KAConsulting (R)[144][AC] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Prime Group[145][AD] | May 9–16, 2024 | 482 (RV) | – | 52% | 48% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[102] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[146] | May 6–13, 2024 | 606 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| New York Times/Siena College[147] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| 616 (LV) | 47% | 46% | 7% | |||
| Emerson College[148] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| 48%[g] | 52% | – | ||||
| CBS News/YouGov[149] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,262 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 49% | – |
| Kaplan Strategies[150] | April 20–21, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 51% | 13% |
| John Zogby Strategies[151][AE] | April 13–21, 2024 | 640 (LV) | – | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Fox News[152] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[153] | April 8–15, 2024 | 708 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Marketing Resource Group[154] | April 8–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 42% | 22%[y] |
| The Bullfinch Group[155][P] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[156] | March 26–30, 2024 | 1,218 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 44% | 14%[z] |
| 1,218 (RV) | 44%[g] | 45% | 11%[aa] | |||
| 1,218 (RV) | 41% | 46% | 13% | |||
| 1,145 (LV) | 43% | 44% | 13%[z] | |||
| 1,145 (LV) | 45%[g] | 46% | 9%[ab] | |||
| 1,145 (LV) | 43% | 46% | 11% | |||
| 1,145 (LV) | 48.5%[g] | 51.5% | – | |||
| Spry Strategies (R)[157] | March 25–28, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Wall Street Journal[158] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Echelon Insights[159][AF] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| Emerson College[160] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| 50%[g] | 50% | – | ||||
| CNN/SSRS[161] | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,097 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| Mitchell Research[162][A] | March 15–16, 2024 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University[163] | March 8–12, 2024 | 1,487 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[164] | March 8–12, 2024 | 698 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[165][AG] | February 22–25, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 13% |
| Kaplan Strategies[166] | February 22−23, 2024 | 1,019 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 46% | 18% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[167] | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Emerson College[168] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| EPIC-MRA[169] | February 13–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Fox News[170] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Focaldata[171] | January 17–23, 2024 | 863 (A) | – | 41% | 43% | 16%[ac] |
| – (LV) | 45% | 44% | 11%[ad] | |||
| – (LV) | 51%[g] | 49% | – | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[172] | January 16–21, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 47% | 7% |
| Target Insyght[173] | January 4–10, 2024 | 800 (RV) | – | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Glengariff Group[174][V] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 47% | 14% |
| John Zogby Strategies[175] | January 2–4, 2024 | 602 (LV) | – | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| CNN/SSRS[176] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[177] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[178] | November 16–19, 2023 | 1,273 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 36% | 41% | 23%[ae] |
| 1,200 (LV) | 37% | 42% | 21%[af] | |||
| EPIC-MRA[179] | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[180] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Emerson College[181] | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| New York Times/Siena College[103] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| 616 (LV) | 46% | 46% | 8% | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[182] | October 5–10, 2023 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[183] | October 7–9, 2023 | 820 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 17% |
| Marketing Resource Group[184] | October 2–8, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 42% | 22% |
| Emerson College[185] | October 1–4, 2023 | 468 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 43% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[186][AH] | September 26–27, 2023 | 679 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[187] | September 7–12, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| EPIC-MRA[188] | August 6–11, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Emerson College[189] | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 44% | 13% |
| Mitchell Research[190][A] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | 13% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[191][AI] | Jul 8–10, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 45% | 44% | 9% |
| Prime Group[192][AD] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
| 40% | 43% | 17%[ag] | ||||
| EPIC-MRA[193] | June 8–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[194][AI] | April 17–19, 2023 | 500 (V) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 42% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[195][AJ] | December 6–7, 2022 | 763 (V) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
| EPIC-MRA[196] | November 30 – December 6, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Emerson College[197] | October 28–31, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Emerson College[198] | October 12–14, 2022 | 580 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| EPIC-MRA[199][Y] | September 15–19, 2022 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[200] | August 15–16, 2022 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 19% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[201] | February 1–4, 2022 | 632 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | 40% | 22% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[202][G] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 53% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R)[203] | July 15–17, 2024 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| EPIC-MRA[131] | July 13–17, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 43% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 9% |
| Emerson College[132][Z] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[134][AA] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 44% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 5%[ah] |
| YouGov[204][U] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[135][AB] | July 1–8, 2024 | 607 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 40% | 43% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 5%[ai] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[136] | July 1–5, 2024 | 694 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 39% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 7%[ah] |
| EPIC-MRA[139] | June 21–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 42% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| Emerson College[140] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Mitchell Research[141][A] | June 3, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Mitchell Research[143][A] | May 20–21, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| KAConsulting (R)[144][AC] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 41% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 7%[aj] |
| Prime Group[145][AD] | May 9–16, 2024 | 482 (RV) | – | 44% | 42% | 10% | 2% | 2% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[102] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 8% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[146] | May 6–13, 2024 | 606 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[147] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 16%[aj] |
| 616 (LV) | 42% | 39% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 11%[aj] | |||
| Emerson College[148] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Fox News[152] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[153] | April 8–15, 2024 | 708 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Marketing Resource Group[154] | April 8–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 37% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 13% |
| Wall Street Journal[158] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 39% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College[160] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Mitchell Research[162][A] | March 15–16, 2024 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University[163] | March 8–12, 2024 | 1,487 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 36% | 41% | 10% | 3% | 4% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[164] | March 8–12, 2024 | 698 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[167] | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Emerson College[168] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| Fox News[170] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 3% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[205] | January 16–21, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[206] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 39% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 13% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[178] | November 16–19, 2023 | 1,273 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 36% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 14%[ak] |
| 1,200 (LV) | 37% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 11%[al] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs[130][W] | July 13–16, 2024 | 532 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 43% | 46% | 5% | 6% |
| 1983 Labs[207] | June 28–30, 2024 | 563 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 41% | 45% | 5% | 9%[ah] |
| P2 Insights[208][AK] | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 43% | 8% | 9% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[142] | May 30–31, 2024 | 723 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 39% | 11% | 9% |
| 636 (LV) | 44% | 43% | 8% | 5% | |||
| P2 Insights[209][AK] | May 13−21, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 37% | 45% | 7% | 11% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[156] | March 26–30, 2024 | 1,218 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 44% | 7% | 9%[am] |
| 1,218 (RV) | 41%[g] | 45% | 8% | 6%[an] | |||
| 1,145 (LV) | 41% | 44% | 7% | 13%[ao] | |||
| 1,145 (LV) | 42%[g] | 45% | 8% | 5%[ap] | |||
| Spry Strategies (R)[157] | March 25–28, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 43% | 9% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[210] | March 14–17, 2024 | 616 (LV) | – | 39% | 41% | 6% | 14% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[211] | December 28–30, 2023 | 832 (LV) | – | 37% | 39% | 9% | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[212] | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 38% | 39% | 9% | 13% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[178] | November 16–19, 2023 | 1,273 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 35% | 40% | 9% | 16%[aq] |
| 1,200 (LV) | 36% | 41% | 8% | 11%[ar] | |||
| New York Times/Siena College[213] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 34% | 26% | 9% |
| 616 (LV) | 34% | 34% | 25% | 7% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[183] | October 7–9, 2023 | 820 (LV) | – | 38% | 40% | 7% | 15% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[129][X] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 45% | 5% | 3% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[214] | July 16–18, 2024 | 437 (LV) | – | 41% | 42% | 6% | 1% | 10%[ah] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[215] | July 8–10, 2024 | 465 (LV) | – | 43% | 42% | 6% | 0% | 9%[ah] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[216] | June 8–11, 2024 | 719 (LV) | – | 36% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 18%[ah] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[217] | May 2–4, 2024 | 650 (LV) | – | 37% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 12% |
| CBS News/YouGov[149] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,262 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 43% | 9% | 3% | 0% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[156] | March 26–30, 2024 | 1,218 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 43% | 10% | 1% | 6% |
| 1,218 (RV) | 42%[g] | 44% | 11% | 3% | – | |||
| 1,145 (LV) | 41% | 44% | 9% | 1% | 5% | |||
| 1,145 (LV) | 43%[g] | 44% | 11% | 2% | – |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS[161] | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,097 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 34% | 40% | 18% | 4% | 4% |
| CNN/SSRS[176] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 39% | 20% | 6% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[218] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 37% | 10% | 2% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[189] | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 41% | 43% | 4% | 11% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[151][AE] | April 13–21, 2024 | 640 (LV) | – | 45% | 44% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[151][AE] | April 13–21, 2024 | 640 (LV) | – | 42% | 41% | 17% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[101][S] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Glengariff Group[174][V] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[99] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 46% | 2% |
| Glengariff Group[127][V] | July 22–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[101][S] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 52% | 45% | 3% |
| Emerson College/The Hill[160] | Mar 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Glengariff Group[174][V] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Marketing Resource Group[184] | October 2–8, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[129][X] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 3% |
JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
JB Pritzker Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[101][S] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 39% | 45% | 16% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[99] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[101][S] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[101][S] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 43% | 48% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[170] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Glengariff Group[174][V] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
| CNN/SSRS[176] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 50% | 12% |
| EPIC-MRA[179] | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 47% | 17% |
| New York Times/Siena College[213] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 35% | 45% | 20% |
| 616 (LV) | 36% | 46% | 18% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[170] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 26% | 23% | 3% | 3% | 33% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[212] | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 37% | 25% | 18% | 20% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS[176] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College[213] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| 616 (LV) | 44% | 43% | 13% | |||
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[187] | September 7–12, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Mitchell Research[190][A] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[191][AI] | July 8–10, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 44% | 46% | 7% |
| EPIC-MRA[193] | June 8–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[194][AI] | April 17–19, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[212] | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 39% | 30% | 13% | 2% | 15% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | |||||
| Republican | |||||
| Libertarian | |||||
| Green | |||||
| Constitution | |||||
| Independent | |||||
| Independent | |||||
| Natural Law |
|
||||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | |||||
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Michigan
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Candidate has suspended campaign, but remains on the ballot.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b c d Another Party's Candidate with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 3%
- ^ a b c d e "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b "Other" with 4%
- ^ "A third party / Independent candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Other" with 2%
- ^ a b c "Other" with 1%
- ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
- ^ a b c Randall Terry (C) with 0%
- ^ Kennedy suspended his campaign, but he remains on the ballot in Michigan.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e Joseph Kishore (SEP) & Randall Terry (C) with 0% each
- ^ "Other" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
- ^ Randall Terry (C), Joseph Kishore (SEP), & Shiva Ayyadurai (I) with 0% each
- ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 14%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 8%
- ^ "Someone else" with 11%
- ^ "Someone else" with 9%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 9%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 7%
- ^ "Another third party candidate" with 12%; "Would not vote" with 4%
- ^ "Another third party candidate" with 12%; "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ No Labels candidate
- ^ a b c d e f Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
- ^ a b c Lars Mapstead (L) with 1%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 3%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ "Someone else" with 6%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Someone else" with 5%
- ^ "Another third party candidate" with 7%; "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ Kishore and White are affiliated with the Socialist Equality Party on a national level, which does not have ballot access in Michigan.
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Poll commissioned by MIRS
- ^ Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
- ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Thinker
- ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll conducted for the Article III Project
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
- ^ Poll sponsored by Focus on Rural America
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Cato Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Independent Center
- ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
- ^ Poll sponsored by Red Eagle Politics
- ^ a b c d e f g Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
- ^ a b Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Detroit Free Press
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice
- ^ a b Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
- ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by Citizens Awareness Project
- ^ Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, a sponsor for the Democratic Party
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
References
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