Hurricane local statement
 | This article contains too many or overly lengthy quotations. (December 2019) |
A hurricane local statement (HLS)[1] is a weather statement produced for the public by the local Weather Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service in the U.S. for areas affected or forecast to be affected by a tropical storm or hurricane that provides an overview of the storm's local effects, including expected weather conditions, evacuation decisions made by local officials, and precautions necessary to protect life and property.[2] The National Weather Services considers the HLS to be the "flagship product" available to Weather Forecast Offices for outlining tropical cyclone watches and warnings and impacts, and is their most visible product during such events.[3]: 37 [4] Descriptions of the affected areas, relevant tropical cyclone watches and warnings, recommendations for precautionary measures, and expected timing and severity of possible threats are typically included in an HLS.[2] The HLS can incorporate projected impacts from pre-written descriptions tailored for different storm intensities; these template descriptions were developed in the 1990s and became widely available to forecasters for use in the HLS by 2001.[5][6] The bulletin issued by the Weather Forecast Office in Slidell, Louisiana, as Hurricane Katrina approached on August 28, 2005, known as "The Bulletin", was lauded by the National Weather Service as having further encouraged vulnerable individuals to evacuate.[7][6] Not all forecast offices can issue an HLS.[8]
Locally-tailored statements regarding hurricanes have been a part of the National Weather Service's hurricane warning program since the inception of the modern National Weather Service in 1970 and were carried over from the U.S. Weather Bureau that preceded it.[9][10] Such statements were formalized as the Hurricane Local Statement following the advent of the Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS) within the National Weather Service in 1978.[11][12] Within the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, HLS was initially composed of two components: an automated section providing meteorological information using the National Digital Forecast Database (also known as a TCV) and a tailored section with input from the local Weather Forecast Office describing potential impacts.[13] In 1999, the Weather Forecast Office in Melbourne, Florida, began accompanying the HLS with a suite of graphics known as a graphical HLS (gHLS).[14][15] In 2009, the National Weather Service made this graphical product available for all Weather Forecast Offices along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean.[6]
The original HLS format was often criticized for being unwieldy. In its service assessment following Hurricane Andrew in 1992, the National Weather Service found the HLS to be too long, redundant, and constrained by the timing of the National Hurricane Center's products.[16] During Hurricane Irene in 2011, forecast offices in the Mid-Atlantic states and Northeastern U.S. criticized the HLS for its excessive length and broad scope.[3]: 33 On average, there was a one-hour gap between the issuance of the TCV segment and the remainder of the HLS among the 12 Weather Forecast Offices impacted by Irene.[3]: 46 Forecasters were also forced to debug the software responsible for issuing the statement as events unfolded.[3]: 37 The National Weather Service later proposed that the automated and human-driven components of the HLS be issued as two separate products as part of a broader effort to improve the readability, timing, and usefulness of the product.[13][6] This proposal came to fruition in 2015, scaling back the HLS to a summary product and separating it from the TCV.[6]
Example
[edit]The following hurricane local statement was issued by the National Weather Service office in Key West, Florida prior to the arrival of Hurricane Wilma.[17]
105
WTUS82 KEYW 232334 AAA
HLSEYW
FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-240030-
HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
735 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
..A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
..A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
..A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
..A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
..NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE
STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WIND IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.
..AREAS AFFECTED
THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY.
..WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS.
THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH
IS IN EFFECT.
..STORM INFORMATION
AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST...ABOUT 210 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. WILMA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14
MPH. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...OR 28.32 INCHES OF MERCURY.
..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RELEASED A
SCHEDULE TO TERMINATE THE EVACUATION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO
HURRICANE WILMA. EVACUATIONS ENDED IN THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST AS
OF 5 PM. EVACUATIONS ARE TO END AT 6 PM IN THE MIDDLE KEYS INCLUDING
MARATHON...AND AT 7 PM IN THE UPPER KEYS INCLUDING ISLAMORADA...KEY
LARGO...OCEAN REEF...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. RESIDENTS AND
MOTORISTS SHOULD SEEK SAFE AND STURDY SHELTER. RESIDENTS WHO HAVE
NOT EVACUATED AND WHO DO NOT FEEL SAFE IN THEIR HOMES...ESPECIALLY
IN MOBILE HOMES...CAN GO TO A REFUGE OF LAST RESORT AS FOLLOWS...KEY
WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF SCHOOL MILE
MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MILE MARKER 48...CORAL
SHORES HIGH SCHOOL MILE MARKER 90...SHERATON KEY LARGO BEACH RESORT
MILE MARKER 98 KEY LARGO...AND MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT
MILE MARKER 103 KEY LARGO. EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY...THE CROWNE LA
CONCHA HOTEL IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. OFFICIALS EMPHASIZE REFUGES OF
LAST RESORT WILL NOT BE MANNED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS...AND
THERE WILL BE NO SUPPLIES FOR EVACUEES. EVACUEES MUST BRING THEIR
OWN WATER...BEDDING...AND SUPPLIES. NO PETS ARE PERMITTED AT REFUGES
OF LAST RESORT. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND COURTS ARE TO BE CLOSED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE TO BE CLOSED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOL DAYTIME CUSTODIANS SHOULD REPORT
TUESDAY. ALL CAMPUSES OF FLORIDA KEYS COMMUNITY COLLEGE ARE TO BE
CLOSED MONDAY. THE CITY OF KEY WEST WILL ENACT A CURFEW FROM 10 PM
SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A VOLUNTARY CURFEW ON ALCOHOL
SALES AT LOCAL BARS.
..WIND IMPACTS
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ACROSS THE UPPER
KEYS BY LATE THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING ACROSS THE
LOWER KEYS AND DRIVING IS NO LONGER RECOMMENDED. RESIDENTS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS HAVE JUST A FEW HOURS LEFT FOR EVACUATION.
..MARINE IMPACTS
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. AS WILMA PASSES JUST
WEST AND NORTH OF THE KEYS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL COME FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THEN WEST.
..STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...STORM
TIDES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE INDICATED ON THE GULF SIDE AND
THE BAY SIDE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR MONDAY AT 230 AM IN KEY
WEST...123 AM AT VACA CUT...208 AM AT WHALE HARBOR...AND 217 AM THE
TAVERNIER CREEK BRIDGE OVER ROUTE 1.
..TORNADO IMPACTS
ISOLATED TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN OUTER RAINBANDS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT WITH HURRICANE WILMA. A VIOLENT WATERSPOUT WAS SPOTTED 5 NM
WEST OF KEY WEST AT 4 PM. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOS WILL OCCUR
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
..RAINFALL IMPACTS
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SEVERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE IN A HIGHLY
FLOOD-PRONE AREA TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.
..NEXT UPDATE
THE NEXT HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830
PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. VISIT OUR KEY
WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST.
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "H". National Weather Service Glossary. Silver Spring, Maryland: National Weather Service. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
- ^ a b "Hurricane Local Statement (HLS)". NHC Tropical Cyclone Text Product Descriptions. Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
- ^ a b c d Hurricane Irene, August 21–30, 2011 (PDF) (Service Assessment). Silver Spring, Maryland: National Weather Service. September 2012. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
- ^ Spratt, Scott M.; Hagemeyer, Bartlett C.; Sharp, David W. (November 8, 2006). "Treating Landfalling Hurricanes as Mesoscale Convective Systems - A Paradigm Shift for Weather Forecast Operations" (PDF). Melbourne, Florida: American Meteorological Society. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
- ^ Goldsmith, Barry S. (April 25, 2006). How NWS Impact Statements Were Used to Communicate Imminent Danger From Severe Hurricanes (PDF). 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. American Meteorological Society. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
- ^ a b c d e Goldsmith, Barry S.; Sharp, David W.; Santos, Pablo; Ricks, Robert J. Jr.; Moreland, Matthew J. "From the "Statement Heard Around the World" to Hurricane Threats and Impacts: The Evolution of Communication Potential Impacts and Safety Messages Since Katrina" (PDF). Brownsville, Texas: National Weather Service. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
- ^ "Hurricane Katrina August 23-31, 2005" (PDF) (Service Assessment). Silver Spring, Maryland: National Weather Service. June 2006. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
- ^ Allen, Allison (March 9, 2017). "Four NWS Southern Region Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) will stop issuing tropical cyclone forecast products effective on or about June 1, 2017" (PDF). Letter to Subscribers to the NOAA Weather Wire Service, Emergency Managers Weather Ifnromation Network, NOAAPORT, and Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
- ^ "The Hurricane Warning Program (Hurricane and Tornado Warning Service)". Operations of the National Weather Service. Silver Spring, Maryland: National Weather Service. October 1970. p. 25. Retrieved December 7, 2020 – via Google Books.
- ^ Operations of the Weather Bureau. Silver Spring, Maryland: Weather Bureau. April 1, 1967. Retrieved December 7, 2020 – via Google Books.
- ^ "Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS) National Weather Service (NWS) Service Records and Retention System (SRRS) Data". NOAA Data Catalog. NOAA. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
- ^ "Appendix B". AFOS Handbook 5. Vol. 8. National Weather Service. September 1, 1985. p. B7. Retrieved December 7, 2020 – via Google Books.
- ^ a b "Summary of Hurricane Local Statement Social Science Products" (PDF). NOAA Coastal Services Center. April 2014. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
- ^ Feltgen, Dennis; Devanas, A (January 12, 2005). Video Hurricane Local Statement. 21st International Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
- ^ Deese, Jason T.; Paxton, Charles H. (August 2002). "Utilization of the GFE in Severe Weather Recognition at the Tampa Bay Area National Weather Service". CiteSeerX 10.1.1.630.4840.
- ^ "Hurricane Andrew: South Florida and Louisiana August 23-26, 1992" (PDF). Silver Spring, Maryland: National Weather Service. November 1993. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
- ^ FUTTERMAN; DEVANAS (23 October 2005). "HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS". College of DuPage. national Weather Service. Archived from the original on 2 May 2014. Retrieved 30 April 2014.
ЭЛия