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June 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election

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June 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election
Bulgaria
← 2023 9 June 2024 October 2024 →

All 240 seats in the National Assembly
121 seats needed for a majority
Turnout34.43% (Decrease 6.08pp)
Party Leader Vote % Seats +/–
GERB–SDS Boyko Borisov 23.99 68 −1
DPS Delyan Peevski 16.56 47 +11
PP–DB Kiril Petkov 13.92 39 −25
Revival Kostadin Kostadinov 13.38 38 +1
BSPzB Korneliya Ninova 6.85 19 −4
ITN Slavi Trifonov 5.79 16 +5
Velichie Albena Pekova 4.52 13 New
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Results by constituency
Prime Minister before Prime Minister after
Dimitar Glavchev (caretaker)
Independent
(First Glavchev Government)
Dimitar Glavchev (caretaker)
Independent
(Second Glavchev Government)

Early parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 9 June 2024,[1][2] to elect members of the National Assembly.[3] The election coincided with the European Parliament election on the same day.[1][2]

This parliamentary election was initially scheduled to be held before 12 June 2027; however, the planned rotation agreed to by GERB and PP–DB failed to materialise in March 2024, and no other government could be formed.

GERB–SDS had the best results, winning nearly 24% of the vote and 68 seats, but it did not obtain a majority in the National Assembly.[4] Voter turnout was 34%, which was the lowest turnout since the end of communist rule in 1989.[5]

The new elected 50th Parliament replaced the 49th Parliament,[6] when all elected members were sworn in on 19 June 2024.[7] The final of three government formation attempts failed on 5 August 2024.[8][9][10] On 9 August, the Bulgarian President as a consequence instead appointed Goritsa Grancharova-Kozhareva (Vice President of the Bulgarian National Audit Office) as the next caretaker prime minister.[11] Grancharova-Kozhareva was granted ten days to form a proposal for the next caretaker government to be appointed on 20 August 2024, with the upcoming next parliamentary elections expected to be held on 20 October 2024.[12] On 19 August, the proposed Grancharova-Kozhareva caretaker government however was rejected by the Bulgarian President, as he opposed the proposal to allow the controversial figure Kalin Stoyanov to continue as interior minister.[13][14] On 27 August, the President instead issued a decree to appoint the Second Glavchev Government as the next caretaker government to replace the First Glavchev Government (with 17 out of 20 ministers being reappointed), and scheduled a new round of early parliamentary elections to be held on 27 October 2024.[15]

Background

[edit]

Following several snap elections, the Bulgarian National Assembly had failed to put together a long-lasting government since 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 election.[5][3] The 2023 election saw little change from 2022, with Boyko Borisov's centre-right GERB–SDS narrowly coming in first place, above the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far right Revival (VAZ) and the populist There is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after it failed to reach the electoral threshold in 2022.[16][17]

On 22 May 2023, the PP- and GERB-led alliances agreed to form a government with a rotational premiership. Nikolai Denkov, PP's candidate, would be the Prime Minister for the first nine months of the government and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would serve as deputy prime minister and foreign affairs minister. After nine months, the two would switch positions.[18]

Denkov resigned in accordance with the rotation agreement on 5 March, to allow Gabriel to become the new Prime Minister.[19] On 20 March 2024, the planned government rotation and signing of a renewed government failed due to disagreements between the two alliances on the cabinet and breaking down of relations.[20][21][22] Negotiations ensued across to form a new government,[23] but failed to produce any governments that could reach a majority support.[24][25][26][27] GERB rejected the chance to form a government. PP–DB made a limited attempt to respect the original rotation agreement. The final chance to form a government, chosen by president Rumen Radev, went to ITN, which was immediately rejected.[28][29][30][31]

On 29 March, as per Article 98 of the constitution,[32] the President appointed the Chairman of the National Audit Office, Dimitar Glavchev, as the candidate for caretaker prime minister.[33] He was granted a one week deadline of until 6 April to propose the composition of the caretaker government.[34]

Glavchev presented his proposal for the caretaker government on 5 April,[35] accepted by the President following negotiations and scheduling the election for 9 June.[36][37] Glavchev and his cabinet were inaugurated on 9 April by the National Assembly.[38]

Election schedule

[edit]

The Central Election Commission announced the campaign would begin at midday on 10 May and end at midnight on 7 June.[39]

The current 49th Parliament was to stay in session at least until the election campaign begins, where a decision of election recess is expected to be adopted by Parliament. The 49th Parliament suspended its normal working process by an adopted election recess on 27 April. While on election recess the 49th Parliament could reconvene for an extraordinary sitting in exceptional circumstances. The 50th Parliament will replace the 49th Parliament as soon as the newly elected members are sworn in after the election.[40]

On election day, polling opened at 07:00 and closed at 20:00.[41]

Parties

[edit]

Parliamentary parties

[edit]

The table below lists the political party groups represented in the 49th National Assembly.[citation needed]

Name Ideology Position Leader(s) 2023 result
Votes (%) Seats
GERB–SDS GERB–SDS Conservatism Centre-right Boyko Borisov 25.39%
69 / 240
[a]
PP–DB We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria Liberalism Centre to
centre-right
Kiril Petkov
Asen Vasilev
Hristo Ivanov
Atanas Atanasov
23.54%
64 / 240
[b]
Revival Revival Ultranationalism Far-right Kostadin Kostadinov 13.58%
37 / 240
DPS Movement for Rights and Freedoms Turkish minority interests Centre Delyan Peevski
Dzhevdet Chakarov
13.18%
36 / 240
BSPzB BSP for Bulgaria Social democracy Centre-left Korneliya Ninova 8.56%
23 / 240
ITN There is Such a People Populism Right-wing Slavi Trifonov 3.94%
11 / 240
  1. ^ GERB 66, SDS 2, DG 1
  2. ^ PP 36, DaB! 13, DSB 10, ZD 3, Volt 1, SEK 1

Contesting parties and coalitions

[edit]

Below is the official list of parties and coalitions that registered lists for the Bulgarian Parliamentary elections.[42]

# Party or coalition Ideology Leader 2023 result
Votes (%) Seats
1 ITN There is Such a People Right-wing populism Slavi Trifonov 3.94%
11 / 240
2 GN Peoples Voice Right-wing populism Svetoslav Vitkov 0.21%
0 / 240
3 Blue Bulgaria KOD Conservative Union of the Right National conservatism
Anti-communism
Petar Moskov 0.29%
0 / 240
NDSV National Movement for Stability and Progress Liberalism Stanimir Ilchev 0.25%
0 / 240
BDF Bulgarian Democratic Forum [bg] National conservatism
Anti-communism
Zhaklin Toleva [bg] DNP
DZ Movement for Democratic Action-DZ Liberal conservatism Stefan Ivanov
DBG Bulgaria for Citizens Movement Liberalism Jordan Jordanov [bg]
KB Conservative Bulgaria National conservatism Boris Yachev
RDP Radical-Democratic Party Social conservatism
Anti-communism
Zahari Petrov
BND Bulgarian New Democracy Liberal conservatism Valeri Georgiev
ZNS Agrarian People's Union Agrarianism
Conservatism
Rumen Yonchev
4 We Citizens BP Bulgarian Spring [bg] Left-wing nationalism Svetoslav Mandikov DNP
BRSP Bulgarian Workers-Peasant Party Marxism-Leninism Georgi Ivanov
Yordan Maldzhanski
KOY Competence, Responsibility and Truth [bg] Populism Svetozar Saev [bg] Out of EU and NATO [bg]
Natsiya Nation Ultranationalism
Hard Euroscepticism
Kiril Gumnerov [bg]
5 IND Independent candidate Kuzman Iliev DNP
6 Bulgarian Voice BG Bulgarian Voice Bulgarian nationalism Georgi Popov DNP
AzB Alternative for Bulgaria National conservatism Nikolay Drenchev [bg] New
7 Rose Coalition BSDE Bulgarian Social Democracy-EuroLeft Social Democracy Aleksandr Tomov 0.10%
0 / 240
OBT United Block of Labour [bg] Social democracy
Labourism
Yekaterina Atanasova DNP
P2000 Patriotism 2000
8 Center Svoboda Svovoda [bg] Bulgarian nationalism Vladimir Simeonov DNP
BZP Bulgarian Agrarian Party Agrarianism
C National Movement "Center" Anti-corruption
Populism
Darin Drosev New
9 Solidary Bulgaria BL Bulgarian Left Democratic socialism Boyan Kirov DNP
OSD United Social-Democracy [bg] Social democracy Yordan Gergov
IS.BG Stand Up.BG Social democracy
Left-wing populism
Maya Manolova Left!
ND Normal State [bg] Social democracy Georgi Kadiev [bg]
SB Solidary Bulgaria Social democracy Vanya Grigorova New
10 E Unification Centrism
Liberalism
Ivan Hristanov [bg] New
11 BNO Bulgarian National Unification Bulgarian nationalism
National conservatism
Georgi Georgiev-Goti [bg] 0.09%
0 / 240
12 Revival Revival Ultranationalism
Right-wing populism
Kostadin Kostadinov 13.58%
37 / 240
13 MECh Morality, Unity, Honour Anti-corruption
Social conservatism
Radostin Vasilev New
14 PP–DB PP We Continue the Change Liberalism
Anti-corruption
Kiril Petkov
Asen Vasilev
23.53%
64 / 240
Volt Volt Bulgaria European federalism
Pro-Europeanism
Nastimir Ananiev
DSB Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria Conservatism
Anti-communism
Atanas Atanasov
DB Yes, Bulgaria! Liberalism
Anti-corruption
Hristo Ivanov
15 ISI People's Party "Truth and Only the Truth" [bg] Anti-vaccination
Ultranationalism
Ventsislav Angelov [bg] 0.29%
0 / 240
16 BV Bulgarian Rise National conservatism Stefan Yanev 2.93%
0 / 240
17 Citizens Block BDS-R Bulgarian Democratic Union-Radicals Bulgarian nationalism DNP
PBZ Party of Bulgarian Women Women's issues Vesela Draganova
GB Citizens Block Anti-corruption
Social conservatism
Ivan Geshev New
18 ONB Society for a New Bulgaria [bg] Social conservatism Margarit Mitsev DNP
19 The Left! ABV Alternative for Bulgarian Revival Social democracy
Moderate social conservatism
Rumen Petkov 2.14%
0 / 240
ex-BSP faction Social democracy Valeri Zhablyanov [bg]
D21 Movement 21 Social democracy Tatyana Doncheva
ZS-AS Agrarian Union "Aleksandar Stamboliyski" Agrarianism Spas Panchev [bg]
ZP Green Party of Bulgaria Green politics Marina Dragomiretskaya DNP
PDS Political Movement "Social Democrats" Social democracy Yelena Noneva
NDSO National Movement for the Salvation of the Fatherland Left-wing nationalism Todor Rashev
20 PnZ Party of the Greens [bg] Green politics
Left-wing nationalism
Vladimir Nikolov Together Bulgaria [bg]
21 NI We Are Coming Liberalism Mariya Kapon [bg] DNP
22 GERB–SDS GERB GERB Social conservatism
Pro-Europeanism
Boyko Borisov 25.39%
63 / 240
SDS SDS Christian democracy
Anti-communism
Rumen Hristov
DG George's Day Movement National conservatism
Bulgarian nationalism
Lyuben Dilov Jr.
23 BNU-ND Bulgarian National Union Ultranationalism Boyan Rasate [bg] 0.07%
0 / 240
24 BSP for Bulgaria BSP Bulgarian Socialist Party Social conservatism
Social democracy
Korneliya Ninova 8.56%
23 / 240
Ecoglasnost Green politics
Environmentalism
Emil Georgiev [bg]
Trakiya Political Club "Trakiya" [bg] Left wing nationalism Stefan Nachev
MIR MIR [bg] Left-wing nationalism Simeon Slavchev [bg] 0.15%
0 / 240
25 Velichie Majesty Bulgarian nationalism
Anti-corruption
Nikolay Markov New
26 VMRO VMRO National conservatism
Bulgarian nationalism
Krasimir Karakachanov DNP
27 PD Direct democracy Bulgarian nationalism
Direct democracy
Petar Klisarov [bg] DNP
28 DPS Movement for Rights and Freedoms Turkish minority interests
Liberalism
Delyan Peevski
Dzhevdet Chakarov
13.18%
36 / 240
29 ZD Green Movement Green liberalism
Green politics
Toma Belev [bg]
Daniela Bozhinova [bg]
PP–DB
30 ZVB For a Great Bulgaria Bulgarian nationalism Kamen Popov New
31 BSDD Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy [bg] Direct democracy Georgi Nedelchev [bg] 0.23%
0 / 240
32 Neutral Bulgaria RVO Russophiles for the
Revival of the Fatherland
Russophilia
National conservatism
Nikolay Malinov [bg] 0.4%
0 / 240
BKP Bulgarian Communist Party Communism Zonka Spasova
PBK Party of the Bulgarian Communists Communism
Marxism–Leninism
Collective leadership
KPB Communist Party of Bulgaria Marxism–Leninism Alexander Paunov DNP

Campaign

[edit]

Campaign slogans and websites

[edit]

The following list present the official campaign slogans and websites of parties that contested the 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election:

Party or coalition Slogan Site
There is Such a People Let's bring back sanity! https://pp-itn.bg/
Peoples Voice The only ones left suitable https://glasnaroden.com/
Blue Bulgaria Because there is a sense https://sinyabulgaria.bg/
We Citizens Let's get our country back https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61559626163761
Kuzman Iliev Iliev – independent Bulgaria can! https://bmsbg.org/
Bulgarian Voice There is an alternative! https://ppbulgarskiglas.bg/
Coalition of the Rose Together we can! https://www.facebook.com/zaednoreferendum
Center It's time... FOR YOU https://center-bg.com/
Solidary Bulgaria It's time for the people! https://solidbul.eu/
Unification Concrete solutions https://edinenie.bg/
Bulgarian National Unification United with you https://bno-bg.com/ Archived 3 June 2024 at the Wayback Machine
Revival We are reviving Bulgaria/Europe https://vazrazhdane.bg/
Morality, Unity, Honour Bulgaria First! https://www.ppmech.bg/
PP–DB Majority for a normal European Bulgaria https://ppdb.bg/
People's Party "Truth and Only the Truth" Divine support https://www.facebook.com/groups/207009572756325/
Bulgarian Rise Together for the rise of Bulgaria! https://bgvazhod.com/
Citizens Block Bulgarians, you are the fist https://grajdanskiblok.bg/ Archived 3 June 2024 at the Wayback Machine
Society for a New Bulgaria Justice for all, security for all https://onbbg.org/
The Left! Not to war! Peace to Bulgaria! https://www.levicata.com/
Party of the Greens Bulgaria has everything it needs to cope with the crisis and develop itself! https://partianazelenite.bg/
We Are Coming Not to fear! https://nieidvame.org/
GERB–SDS A stable Bulgaria in a secure Europe https://gerb.bg/
Bulgarian National Union Save Bulgaria, save yourself! https://bgns.net/
BSP for Bulgaria For a dignified Bulgaria in a peaceful Europe https://bsp.bg/
Majesty/Greatness Majesty/Greatness for Bulgaria! https://velichie.bg/
VMRO Time for unity and strength! https://www.facebook.com/www.vmro.bg/
Direct Democracy A new political model https://www.directdemocracy.bg/
Movement for Rights and Freedoms Together with the people https://www.dps.bg/
Green Movement The power of being honest https://zelenodvizhenie.bg/
For a Great Bulgaria Bulgaria a zone of peace https://zavelikabulgaria.bg/
Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy New, time-proven! https://www.budd.bg/
Neutral Bulgaria Let's talk about the important stuff! https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61552028243492

Allegations of corruption and improper political behaviour

[edit]

Customs Agency scandal

[edit]

On 3 April, the head of the Customs Agency, Petya Bankova, along with her deputy, and two others were arrested in relation to their alleged participation in an organised criminal group dealing blackmarket tobacco products.[43] Following the arrests, Secretary of the Ministry of Interior Zhivko Kotsev announced his resignation, with PP–DB leaders suggesting this had been coerced.[44] A day later, Kotsev withdrew his resignation in a joint-briefing with acting Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov where they repeated the claim.[45]

Photos including the suspects and PP–DB-affiliated politicians were leaked, and Parliament formed a commission to investigate the scandal. Controversially, one of its aims was to investigate the role of PP co-leader Asen Vasilev in the affair.[46][47] The commission heard claims that the PP–DB politicians were involved.[48] These claims were disputed, and former PP interior minister Boyko Rashkov claimed those alleging the link were themselves involved in the scandal.[49] Vasilev also appeared before the committee, denying any wrong doing or connections with the named suspects.[50]

On 25 April, the committee published its report, which claimed to prove Asen Vasilev's role within the scheme.[51]

The events of the scandal, despite occurring outside the election campaign period, were identified by some analysts as signalling the "beginning" of the pre-election campaign.[52] Additionally, the scandal was used in the campaign, notably by ITN, in order to attack PP–DB.[53]

"Turkish Stream" gas pipeline scandal

[edit]

In early March, an alleged copy of the roadmap for the construction of the TurkStream (also known as the "Balkan Stream") gas pipeline through Bulgaria was released by the investigative newspaper, BG Elves.[54] It suggested that the main role in the construction of the pipeline was undertaken by Russian firms, additionally it demonstrated that the pipeline's construction directly served Russian interests.[55] The pipeline was given approval by the Third Borisov government.

PP–DB accused GERB of helping Russia build a new pathway for natural gas circumventing Ukraine, thus enabling the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[56] A parliamentary committee was formed to investigate the leak, however, its work ended up being hindered due to partisan gridlock.[57]

Audio-tape leaks

[edit]

As had occurred previously during the government formation of the Denkov Government, audio recordings by senior PP–DB figures were allegedly leaked. One, published on the online newspaper Afera, was from a PP leadership meeting where they discussed illegal party finance methods.[58] PP–DB representatives claimed this recording was taken out of context.[59]

Borisov–Peevski billboard

[edit]

As part of their campaign, PP–DB released a billboard containing the image of former Prime Minister Denkov, on one side, and the leaders of GERB and DPS, Borisov and Peevski, on the other, with a sign asking "who do you want to be prime minister?". The sign was promptly removed after a legal complaint by GERB, who claimed the billboard denigrated the person of Boyko Borisov.[60] In a campaign meeting, Borisov called Denkov's behaviour as offensive, and claimed that this demonstrated that Denkov was unfit to be prime minister.[61]

Public finances

[edit]

During the election campaign, GERB, specifically Delyan Dobrev consistently criticised the policies of Asen Vasilev, accusing him of increasing the public debt and increasing inflation, while not doing enough to attract investment.[62] Borisov declared that if GERB were to come to power they would implement a more "strict" fiscal policy.[63]

PP–DB, on the other hand, defended the track record of Asen Vasilev, pointing to an increase in incomes.[64] They further accused GERB of trying to add spending outside of that set aside by the budget in order to sabotage Bulgaria's entrance into the Eurozone.[65]

Parties on the left, such as BSP, Levitsata and Solidary Bulgaria, generally supported the implementation of a progressive tax system, with BSP, for example, advocating for a tax break for all those under 26.[66]

The right-wing coalition, Blue Bulgaria, called for less state involvement in the economy, with government finance instead being focused on healthcare, education and security.[67]

Foreign policy

[edit]

One of the key policy issues which dominated the elections was Bulgaria's position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A number of parties (specifically, Revival, BSP, Levitsata!, Solidary Bulgaria and Velichie) advocated for Bulgaria to not send lethal aid to Ukraine and supported paying Russia for gas.[68][69]

Post-election government formation

[edit]

Due to the continuous political instability in Bulgaria, ever since the April 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election, post-election government formations has been one of the key topics of the election campaign.

GERB, shortly after the collapse of government negotiations following the Denkov government's resignation, had indicated that they would re-initiate negotiations with PP–DB, albeit conditional on a "new approach" from the PP–DB leadership.[70] However, they became more hostile to PP–DB, especially after they supported a motion to oust the GERB speaker of the National Assembly.[71] Boyko Borisov, GERB's leader, made clear that they would not govern solely with DPS.[72] On 24 May, Borisov announced that GERB should take a "leading role" in any future government.[73]

PP–DB expressed a willingness to negotiate a coalition government with GERB, however it excluded the possibility of any involvement from Delyan Peevski in a future government, thus excluding DPS.[74] During an interview with bTV, former Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov stated that PP–DB would not form a government which involved either Boyko Borisov or Delyan Peevski.[75]

Delyan Peevski, on his part, did not exclude his party's participation in either a GERB-led or PP–DB-led government, claiming he had a stable working relationship with both PP leader Kiril Petkov and Boyko Borisov.[76]

A number of parties promised during the campaign period promised they would not enter any informal governing arrangements with GERB, DPS or PP–DB. Specifically, BSP leader, Korneliya Ninova, highlighted her party as the "only one" which had not engaged in any such deals with GERB.[77] Solidary Bulgaria candidate, and Stand Up.BG leader, Maya Manolova promised that Solidary, if they entered parliament, would not govern with GERB, DPS or PP–DB.[78]

Opinion polls

[edit]
Local regression of polls conducted, excluding "none of the above"

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and exclude polls that chose "I will not vote" or "I am uncertain" options.

121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample GERB–SDS PP–DB Revival DPS BSPzB ITN BV Left SBG SB Others NOTA Lead Govt. Opp.
2024 election 9 June 2024 24.0
68
13.9
39
13.4
38
16.6
47
6.9
19
5.8
11
0.6
0
0.7
0
1.4
0
1.5
0
12.3 2.9 7.4
Alpha Research 1–4 June 2024 1000 25.1
71
15.4
44
15.2
43
14.8
42
8.1
23
6.2
17
2.4
0
3.3
0
9.5 9.7
CAM 31 May – 4 June 2024 821 26.4
73
16.6
46
14.5
40
15
42
8.4
24
5.3
14
1.8
0
1.4
0
3.2
0
2.4
0
5[a] 4.2 9.7
Exacta 30 May – 4 June 2024 1050 26.4
74
15.5
43
14.8
41
14.6
40
9
25
6.2
17
2.1
0
3.2
0
8.2 9.7
Gallup 29 May – 4 June 2024 1003 25.9
72
15.7
44
15.5
43
15.3
42
8
22
6.1
17
1
0
1.1
0
3.1
0
2.8
0
5.5[b] 10.2
Trend 29 May – 4 June 2024 1007 26.5
74
15.3
43
15.1
42
14.9
42
8.5
23
5.9
16
1.1
0
1.3
0
3.4
0
2.1
0
5.9[c] 4.4 11.2
Sova Harris 29 May – 3 June 2024 1000 25.5
74
15.1
43
15.3
44
14.2
41
8.4
24
5.1
14
1.2
0
2.5
0
3.4
0
3.2
0
6.1[d] 10.2
Mediana 25 May – 1 June 2024 990 28.6
81
12.9
37
14.9
42
13.5
38
8.6
25
6.3
17
1.6
0
3.2
0
3.0
0
3.4
0
4.0 13.7
Market Links 23 May – 2 June 2024 1004 27.5
79
17.1
49
12.4
36
13.7
39
8.4
24
4.5
13
2
0
3
0
7.7[e] 3.5 10.5
Mediana 12–18 May 2024 978 27.5
77
13.7
38
15.7
44
14.2
39
9
25
6.2
17
1.2
0
2.9
0
2.7
0
3.1
0
3.8[f] 11.8
Trend 11–18 May 2024 1003 26.1
74
15.4
43
14.8
42
14.9
42
8.5
24
5.5
15
1.2
0
1.4
0
2.4
0
1.8
0
8[g] 5.1 10.7
Sova Harris 8–13 May 2024 1000 26.6
73
16.1
45
15.3
42
15
41
9.1
24
5.4
15
1.4
0
3.8
0
2.1
0
4.3[h] 10.5
Market Links 27 Apr – 9 May 2024 28.4
80
19.3
55
14
39
14.4
41
9.2
25
3.6
0
2
0
1.5
0
4.1 3.6 9.1
Alpha Research 24 Apr – 2 May 2024 1000 25.4
71
17.5
49
14.6
41
14.9
41
8.5
24
5.2
14
1.3
0
1.9
0
2.6
0
2.5
0
5.6 7.9
Gallup 22 Apr – 2 May 2024 808 26.5
74
16.4
45
15.1
42
15.4
43
8.4
23
4.7
13
2.5
0
1.5
0
9.5[i] 10.1
Trend 12 Apr–19 Apr 2024 1002 24.9
73
15.5
45
14.2
41
14.4
42
9.1
26
4.8
13
1.7
0
1.8
0
6.6 6.9 9.4
Exacta 11 Apr–18 Apr 2024 1020 25.9
73
16.4
46
13.8
39
14.0
40
9.6
27
5.2
15
7.7 7.4 9.5
Market Links 30 Mar–7 Apr 2024 1046 25.5 17.1 10.3
11.8
8.7
3.9
22.7[j] 8.4
Gallup International 28 Mar–5 Apr 2024 805 27.4
73
17.9
47
14.9
39
15.2
40
10.5
28
5.2
13
8.9 9.5
Mar 2024 The Denkov Government resigns. A snap election is scheduled for 9 June
Gallup International 29 Feb–8 Mar 2024 810 26.4
69
19.6
52
14.8
39
14.7
39
10.6
28
5.1
13
8.8 6.8 46.0 54.0
Alpha Research 27 Feb–3 Mar 2024 1000 27.0
71
21.9
58
14.6
38
11.0
29
10.9
29
5.8
15
8.8 5.1 48.9 51.1
Market Links 24 Feb–3 Mar 2024 1058 27.9
77
21.2
58
10.8
29
15.0
41
8.8
24
3.9
11[k]
8.2 3.7 6.7 49.1 46.6
24 February 2024 Delyan Peevski and Dzhevdet Chakarov are elected as co-chairmen of DPS
Market Links 26 Jan–4 Feb 2024 1016 27.7
76
20.0
55
11.5
31
14.1
39
9.9
27
4.4
12
7.7 4.7 7.7 47.7 47.6
Trend 17–24 Jan 2024 1016 24.8
70
17.8
50
14.6
41
13.8
39
9.6
27
4.8
13
1.8
0
1.9
0
3.9 7.0 7.0 42.6 50.4
Mediana 7–13 Dec 2023 978 22.9
68
15.6
46
13.5
40
12.2
36
11.3
33
5.9
17
1.5
0
3.5
0
3.6 10.0 7.3 38.5 51.5
Alpha Research 22–30 Nov 2023 1000 25.9
68
21.1
55
14.4
38
12.8
34
11.4
30
5.8
15
8.6 4.8 47.0 53.0
Market Links 10–19 Nov 2023 1014 26.3
71
20.1
54
12.8
35
14.4
39
10.5
29
4.5
12
7.0 4.2 6.2 46.4 49.4
Trend 11–18 Nov 2023 1006 24.7
70
17.9
50
15.4
43
13.3
38
9.4
27
4.4
12
2.0
0
1.9
0
3.6 7.4 6.8 42.6 50.0
Market Links 26 Sept–8 Oct 2023 1032 27.1
78
20.1
58
12.7
37
14.2
41
9.1
26
3.2
0
7.0 6.8 7.0 47.2 46.0
Trend 2–8 Sep 2023 1002 24.9
70
18.3
51
16.1
45
13.4
38
8.7
24
4.2
12
2.1
0
1.9
0
3.9 6.5 6.6 43.2 50.3
Market Links 11–18 Aug 2023 1012 26.2
70
21.7
58
12.8
34
15.1
41
8.3
22
5.4
15
7.2 3.0 4.5 47.9 48.8
Mediana 18–24 Jul 2023 976 23.3
67
18.0
51
15.4
44
12.9
37
9.0
26
5.4
15
2.5
0
2.1
0
2.0[l] 9.3 5.3 41.3 49.3
Trend 4–11 Jul 2023 1001 24.8
70
19.1
54
15.5
43
13.7
38
8.6
24
4.0
11
1.8
0
1.9
0
4.3 6.3 5.7 43.9 49.8
Gallup International 29 Jun–9 Jul 2023 809 26.4
69
21.8
57
14.9
39
14.5
38
9.7
26
4.3
11
2.0
0
6.4 4.6 48.2 51.8
CAM 3–7 Jul 2023 1021 26.2
74
21.4
61
14.5
41
13.4
38
9.0
26
3.7
0
1.8
0
1.8
0
3.7 4.5 4.8 47.6 47.9
Market Links 22 Jun–2 Jul 2023 1011 27.5
75
20.9
57
13.8
38
17.0
46
8.9
24
3.8
0
3.6 4.6 6.6 48.4 47.0
Alpha Research 20–26 Jun 2023 1000 25.1
70
20.2
56
15.4
43
12.6
35
8.8
25
4.1
11
2.7
0
7.5 3.6 4.9 45.3 51.1
Exacta 12–20 Jun 2023 1040 24.4
67
20.1
56
14.8
41
13.2
37
9.5
26
4.8
13
1.9
0
1.8
0
3.6 5.9 4.3 44.5 49.6
Trend 10–16 Jun 2023 1008 24.9
69
19.4
54
15.3
43
13.5
37
8.9
25
4.3
12
2.2
0
1.9
0
3.8 5.8 5.5 44.3 49.9
6 June 2023 The Denkov Government is sworn in
Gallup International 27 Apr–5 May 2023 803 26.8
69
24.1
62
14.7
38
13.9
36
9.1
24
4.1
11
3.2
0
1.5
0
2.6 4.3[m] 2.7 50.9 49.1
2023 election 2 April 2023 26.5
69
24.6
64
14.2
37
13.8
36
8.9
23
4.1
11
3.1
0
2.2[n]
0
0.55[o]
0
2.6 4.1 1.9 51.1 48.9%
  1. ^ Includes VMRO at 1%
  2. ^ Includes Majesty at 1.7% and VMRO at 1.5%
  3. ^ Includes VMRO at 1.5%
  4. ^ Includes VMRO at 1.7% and CENTER at 1.1%
  5. ^ Includes CENTER at 2.3%
  6. ^ Includes VMRO at 1.3%
  7. ^ Includes VMRO at 1.1%
  8. ^ Includes VMRO at 1.5%, CENTER at 1.4% and Citizens Block at 0.7%
  9. ^ Includes VMRO at 1.1%
  10. ^ As the full data for this poll was not released, it is possible that it includes undecided and uncertain voters. Recalculating the data to only include the numbers for the listed parties may be advised. Market Links often include undecided voters in their final results
  11. ^ ITN are given seats in the Assembly despite being seemingly below the threshold as None of the above votes do not count towards the threshold.
  12. ^ Justice for Bulgaria with 1.0%, "Other" with 1.0%
  13. ^ This poll reported the percentage respondents do not support any party, however the rest of the data was recalculated to exclude these percentages
  14. ^ ISBG, contested the 2023 parliamentary elections with the Left! and went on to run with Solidary Bulgaria
  15. ^ Result of NDSV and KOD, two members of the Blue Bulgaria coalition

Results

[edit]

The results showed that no party attained a majority in the National Assembly, with GERB attaining a plurality of seats. Turnout was 34.4 percent, the lowest since the end of communist rule in 1989.[68][79]

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
GERB–SDS530,65823.9968−1
Movement for Rights and Freedoms366,31016.5647+11
We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria307,84913.9239−25
Revival295,91513.3838+1
BSP for Bulgaria151,5606.8519−4
There is Such a People128,0075.7916+5
Greatness99,8624.5213New
Morality, Unity, Honour63,9922.890New
Blue Bulgaria33,6131.520New
Solidary Bulgaria31,4761.420New
Center25,6641.160New
VMRO – Bulgarian National Movement21,2720.9600
The Left!15,1750.6900
Bulgarian Rise12,3220.5600
Green Movement9,3240.4200
People's Voice6,5600.3000
We Are Coming5,9390.270New
Party of the Greens [bg]5,4940.2500
Direct democracy [bg]5,2070.2400
Unification5,2060.240New
We the Citizens4,6620.210New
Bulgarian Voice3,3780.150New
Citizens Bloc3,0030.140New
People's Party "Truth and Only the Truth" [bg]2,4830.1100
Neutral Bulgaria2,4620.1100
Rose Coalition2,2060.100New
Society for a New Bulgaria [bg]2,2490.1000
Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy2,1280.1000
For a Great Bulgaria1,8930.090New
Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy [bg]9460.0400
Bulgarian National Unification9200.0400
None of the above63,9132.89
Total2,211,648100.002400
Valid votes2,211,64897.42
Invalid/blank votes58,4962.58
Total votes2,270,144100.00
Registered voters/turnout6,593,27534.43
Source: Central Electoral Commission

Aftermath

[edit]

GERB–SDS leader Boyko Borisov thanked voters for the party's performance in the election.[79] Kiril Petkov conceded and announced PP–DB would form a constructive opposition to the government once it is formed.[80]

Both Korneliya Ninova, the leader of the BSP, and Hristo Ivanov, leader of DaB!, resigned following the results.[81]

The new elected 50th Parliament replaced the 49th Parliament,[6] when all elected members were sworn in on 19 June 2024.[7]

Coalition negotiations

[edit]

The leader of the DPS, Delyan Peevski, called for discussions between all "Euro-Atlantic" parties.[81]

GERB said that they were seeking to form an "expert" government and dominate key ministries, including the office of Prime Minister. However, Borisov announced that he did not want the position.[82][83] The BSP leadership suggested they could support an expert cabinet.[81]

The Bulgarian newspaper Dnevnik set out the following scenarios:[84]

Coalition Projected seats Status in the National Assembly Notes
GERB+DPS
68+47




Minority (115 of 240)
GERB+DPS+ITN
68+47+16




Majority (131 of 240)
GERB+BSP+ITN
68+19+16




Minority (103 of 240) All parties support an "expert cabinet"
Caretaker government N/A N/A New elections in Autumn

The caretaker government in place ahead of the election, will continue as caretaker government after the election, until the point of time it can be replaced by a new government. As regulated by the Bulgarian Constitution, the first negotiation mandate to try form a new government will automatically be given to the largest elected party (GERB–SDS), and if this attempt fails the second negotiation mandate to try form a new government will then automatically be given to the second largest elected party (DPS). If no government can be formed within the first or the second mandate, then the Bulgarian President will give a third mandate to an elected parliamentary party at his discretion. If the third mandate also fails to form a government, then a caretaker government will be appointed by the President and new snap parliamentary elections shall be scheduled within two months after its inauguration.[85]

First negotiation mandate

[edit]

On 17 June GERB began the negotiations with other parties within the first negotiation mandate, inviting all to discussions over the following two days.[86][87] The framework for the first negotiation mandate, was the GERB–SDS proposal to form an expert cabinet on their mandate; and with GERB–SDS representatives occupying the positions of prime minister (although not being their party leader Boyko Borisov), foreign minister, and defence minister.[88] PP–DB, BSPzB and VAZ refused to attend the negotiations, so there was only a meeting between GERB and DPS on the first day;[89] both parties suggested they would be ready to form a government in coalition.[90] On the second day, only ITN joined the talks, but only to declare they would neither back a government formed within the first nor the second negotiation mandate (led by GERB–SDS or DPS).[85] ITN clarified they would under no circumstances support the formation of a GERB-DPS government or a GERB-DPS-ITN government; meaning that ITN would only support the formation of a politically neutral expert cabinet within the third negotiation mandate (preferably backed by all parties), and hoped to be selected as the party in charge of the third negotiation mandate to form such a government.[91]

On 20 June GERB, DPS and ITN all supported the GERB candidate for the Speaker of the National Assembly, Raya Nazaryan. One VAZ member also voted for her, but the rest of the party abstained. Borisov had declared that there would be new elections if she failed to be elected.[92][93][94]

There were also reports that 5 or 6 of the Velichie deputies could split off to support a GERB-DPS government, which could give it a narrow majority.[95]

On 24 June President Rumen Radev started the consultations about the next steps in the government formation process, with all Parliamentary Groups invited for meetings in the order of their elected size.[96] GERB–SDS, DPS, PP–DB were consulted on 24 June; VAZ and BSPzB were consulted on 25 June; while ITN and Velichie were consulted on 26 June.[97] PP–DB confirmed their initial stance, that they in no circumstances would be part of nor support a GERB/DPS government; but thought GERB/DPS now should be granted time by Radev to investigate if it was possible to form a government with other parliamentary parties under a first or second negotiation mandate – and in the event of formation of such a government then PP–DB would play the role of being a constructive opposition party. PP–DB remained silent on how they would position themselves in case a potential third negotiation mandate should be needed during the attempts to form a government, "because it would be wrong [speaking about a third mandate], considering that the first two mandates are still coming up" and as of now "everything possible should be done to fulfill the first or second mandate".[98]

On 1 July President Radev formally asked GERB-SDS to form a minority government with former National Assembly speaker Rosen Zhelyazkov as prime-minister designate.[99] The minority government proposed by Zhelyazkov was largely composed of ministers from previous GERB governments, while also including several incumbent Caretaker Ministers. After the first mandate was received by Zhelyazkov, Boyko Borisov stated that if the government was approved without clear political support, it would only undertake urgent priority tasks before resigning.[100] On 3 July, the National Assembly voted 138–98 to reject the proposed government.[101]

Investiture
Rosen Zhelyazkov (GERB)
Ballot → 3 July 2024
Required majority → absolute majority
among present MPs
(120 of 238)
Yes
98 / 240
No
138 / 240
Abstentions
2 / 240
Absentees
2 / 240
Result → No ☒N
Source: BTA[102]

Second negotiation mandate

[edit]

The second cabinet-forming negotiation mandate was as a consequence instead granted to the second-largest PP–DB on 22 July, but only to be returned immediately as an unsuccessful attempt.[103]

Third negotiation mandate

[edit]

President Radev granted the third and final negotiation mandate to ITN on 29 July, who attempted to form a neutral, Euro-Atlantic, expert government.[104]

ITN had the support of 66 MPs, including its own, independents formerly aligned with Velichie and DPS, as well as BSP.[105][106][107] PP–DB also considered supporting the proposal.[108]

The mandate was unsuccessfully returned on 5 August,[9][10] which paved the way for Radev to appoint a caretaker government and schedule new snap parliamentary elections within two months after its inauguration.[109][110]

Changes in the Assembly's composition

[edit]

One MP was expelled from the BSP by its national council on 18 June, before being sworn in.[111]

The Velichie parliamentary group comprised 13 MPs after the election. On 5 July, six MPs broke away from the group, dissolving it.[112]

A rift in DPS surrounding Delyan Peevski saw 17 MPs expelled and a further eight leave.[113]

Caretaker government

[edit]

In order to appoint a caretaker government, President Radev had to find a candidate for Prime Minister. Initially, the GERB speaker of the Assembly, Raya Nazaryan, was reported as being an option, but she declared she did not wish to be a candidate.[114] The incumbent caretaker prime minister, Dimitar Glavchev, however confirmed that he was ready to stay in office if President Radev offered to reappoint him for a second term.[115] Radev held consultations on forming an interim government with all parliamentary groups on 8 August.[116]

On 9 August Radev appointed Goritsa Grancharova-Kozhareva, Vice President of the Bulgarian National Audit Office, as the next caretaker prime minister.[11] Grancharova-Kozhareva was granted ten days to form a proposal for the next caretaker government to be appointed on 20 August 2024, which would put the date of the next election as 20 October 2024.[12] On 19 August, Radev refused to appoint the government, as he opposed the proposal to allow the controversial figure Kalin Stoyanov to continue as interior minister.[117][14] As such, the Glavchev government is continuing its duties and the election is postponed until a caretaker government is approved.[14] This has been reported to be a potential constitutional crisis, with some scholars arguing Radev does not have the power to refuse the appointment of a caretaker government.[118][119][120] On 27 August, President Radev issued a decree instead to appoint the Second Glavchev Government as the next caretaker government to replace the First Glavchev Government (with 17 out of 20 ministers being reappointed), and scheduled a new round of early parliamentary elections to be held on 27 October 2024.[15]

References

[edit]
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